Outright plays (1.5pts):
Zach Johnson to win 28/1 e.w. @ Expekt, UKBetting and Totalbet
Agreeing with Shaker on this play. Each of his last four finishes have been in the top-15 and two of them have been top-3, so there is only Luke Donald in this field who can match him for form. No course experience, but his accuracy from tee to green has been particularly good over the last two months and he is a very good scrambler, which is important around Forest Oaks.
Tom Lehman to win 40/1 e.w. @ William Hill, Victor Chandler and BlueSq
Not a particularly good scrambler, but the resurgence in Lehman's game since he moved to the long putter cannot be ignored. He was on the shortlist for selection last week, but makes it this week after recording his second top-5 finish in his last three starts. Having also finished in the top-25 in each of his last four visits here, I would have expected shorter odds on Lehman.
Brad Faxon to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ GolfingGods
Did consider the place-only option for Lehman after he blew a great chance to at least earn a playoff last week, but the place odds were not particularly good. I would go as low as the 8.25/1 available at Expekt, but will take 10/1 elsewhere. Faxon has been extremely consistent this year and has raised his game to finish in the top-15 in three of his last four events and against much stronger fields. He should be able to do again on this course which rewards his short game prowess. He has finished 2nd in 1997 and 2003, so a repeat is certainly within his capabilities this week.
Zach Johnson to win 28/1 e.w. @ Expekt, UKBetting and Totalbet
Agreeing with Shaker on this play. Each of his last four finishes have been in the top-15 and two of them have been top-3, so there is only Luke Donald in this field who can match him for form. No course experience, but his accuracy from tee to green has been particularly good over the last two months and he is a very good scrambler, which is important around Forest Oaks.
Tom Lehman to win 40/1 e.w. @ William Hill, Victor Chandler and BlueSq
Not a particularly good scrambler, but the resurgence in Lehman's game since he moved to the long putter cannot be ignored. He was on the shortlist for selection last week, but makes it this week after recording his second top-5 finish in his last three starts. Having also finished in the top-25 in each of his last four visits here, I would have expected shorter odds on Lehman.
Brad Faxon to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ GolfingGods
Did consider the place-only option for Lehman after he blew a great chance to at least earn a playoff last week, but the place odds were not particularly good. I would go as low as the 8.25/1 available at Expekt, but will take 10/1 elsewhere. Faxon has been extremely consistent this year and has raised his game to finish in the top-15 in three of his last four events and against much stronger fields. He should be able to do again on this course which rewards his short game prowess. He has finished 2nd in 1997 and 2003, so a repeat is certainly within his capabilities this week.
