Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)
Justin Rose to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
Difficult to find players who can close out events in these second-tier tournaments, so have sided with two up-and-coming players and a player who who has a good record here. Maybe Rose shouldn't still be labelled as an up-and-coming player as he won four events around the world in 2002, played in the rival WGC World Matchplay event in 2003 and 2004 and held the lead in the Masters after the first and second rounds in 2004, but he has yet to convert his chances for victory on the PGA Tour. He came particularly close towards the end of last season when he held the 2nd and 3rd round leads in the Buick Championship, but finished 3rd, and he did hold a share of the first round lead last week when he opened with a 64. He would finish 39th, but the form is evident as it also from a top-10 finish in the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. Rose missed the cut on his debut here last year, but if he is to return to the WGC events and play to his enormous potential, he really should have a very good chance of victory in events like this.
Dean Wilson to win 40/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes and Coral
Wilson cannot be described as an up-and-coming player. He turned professional in 1992 and won six times on the Japan Tour between 2000 and 2002 before earning and keeping his playing rights on the PGA Tour. In two of three years, it has been solely because of a successful return to the Q-School, but he did manage four top-10 finishes last year and he already has two from his last three starts this year. One of those was last week when he shared the first round lead with Justin Rose and the other was in the FBR Open, which is also played in Arizona. With a 6th place finish in this event in 2002 and being a Nevada resident, he looks more than capable of playing on desert courses and should be a contender once again this week.
Henrik Bjornstad to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
As with Rose, Bjornstad has questionable status as an up-and-coming player as he was established on the European Tour from 2001 to 2004, but lost his game and his confidence in the last year and took some time out of the game altogether. But he has now re-emerged via the PGA Tour Q-School and has secured some notable finishes, particularly 10th in the Buick Invitational when he held the lead during the back nine on the Sunday and 12th in the FBR Open, also in Arizona. He missed the cut in the AT&T event, but as this was his first pro-am on this Tour, it can easily be excused. If he can repeat the form that he has showed in the last month, another high finish can be expected from the Norwegian.
