CIMB Classic

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Charlie Wi to beat John Huh +125 @ 5Dimes
I don't see why Huh is such a large favourite. He hasn't had a top-10 finish on the PGA Tour since May, hasn't played the course previously and when he did play in Asia last year, his record was three top-20 finishes and three missed cuts from eight starts. Wi has recent course experience - 18th in his last visit two years ago, finished 5th in the CJ Invitational in South Korea in his last outing, and has won twice in Malaysia already.

Martin Laird to beat Greg Chalmers +110 @ 5Dimes
With a 3rd place finish on this course two years ago, I think Laird will show better form this week than he has done on the PGA Tour recently. Chalmers has never previously played in Malaysia, let alone on this course, so I think the value lies with the Scot in this matchup.

Ricky Barnes to beat Troy Matteson +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally]
Again backing the player who has experience of playing in at least Malaysia, and preferably on this course as well - it is important when the PGA Tour is so far from its 'home'. Barnes has finished in the top-20 in both years of this event, opening with a 63 in 2010; Matteson is making his debut in this country and has finished outside the top-120 in his last two events.

Carl Pettersson to beat David Lipsky -163 @ Stan James and BetVictor [available generally]
Lipsky does have experience of playing in Malaysia - he finished 3rd in the Malaysian Open in April - but he will be making his debut at The Mines and enters this tournament on the back of two missed cuts on the Asian PGA Tour. Pettersson is a far better player and has played in each of the two years of this event at The Mines, being 2nd after 54 holes in 2010 and 9th after 36 holes last year.

John Senden to beat Scott Hend -143 @ Bet365 [available generally]
Same here. Hend is a regular in Malaysia being a member of the Asian PGA Tour, but it has yielded just one top-10 finish in 12 tournaments on this course and he has yet to play this course. Senden can count finishes of 29th and 7th in the last two years here, plus a 7th place finish at The Mines back in 1998 in the Kuala Lumpur Open. Senden has become a very consistent player, not just on the PGA Tour, but whenever he plays around the world, so I expect him to have a good week this week.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Marcus Fraser(66/1) e.w. (1/4 for 1-2-3-4)
Nick Watney(20/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Robert Garrigus to beat Brian Harman -125 @ Stan James
Some surprising scores in rd1 - one of those was Harman shooting 64 and being 2nd after the opening round. For a player who has achieved just one top-10 finish all season, this is an encouraging start, but I don't expect him to stay there. He was 2nd after the opening round of The Barclays, but then shot 75 in rd2 to drop 25 places. Garrigus has a 12-5-2 h2h lead over him in 2012 and notch up his 13th h2h victory this week.

Cameron Tringale to beat Anirban Lahiri -110 @ SkyBet
And now two players towards the bottom of the leaderboard. Today's 71 was the 12th round in his last 15 that Lahiri has failed to break 70 and two of those three sub-70 rounds were in his home country, India. I just don't see him climbing the leaderboard this week, whereas Tringale does have the confidence from a 4th place finish here last year; he also ranks over 84 places higher in the World Rankings.

Tiger Woods to beat Jason Dufner -175 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power]
A short price (and backing Tiger has not been profitable this year), but he played really well on the back nine despite the increasing wind and certainly sounds happy with his game in the post-round interview. These two have played in 50 common events and the only time that Dufner has finished ahead of Tiger in any that was not a Major or a WGC event was the 2009 Deutsche Bank Championship; Tiger has finished ahead of him in every other non-Major and non-WGC event in which they have both played.

Mohd Siddikur to beat Shaaban Hussin -175 @ BetVictor [also available @ SkyBet, Stan James and Expekt]
Another short price, but an even more one-sided matchup. Since 2010, Siddikur has finished ahead of Hussin in 27 of 29 common events; in the 2nd round alone, the h2h record is 21-6-2 over that period. Siddikur hs finished ahead of Hussin in each of the two years of this event; I can't see this year being any different.

William McGirt to beat Masanori Kobayashi -138 @ Stan James [available generally]
Kobayashi is the 'Iron Man' of this field - this is the 11th straight week that has played Tour golf. The last ten weeks have seen him win Asia-Pacific Panasonic Open, but also achieve just two rounds in the 60s in the other nine events. He did shoot 69 in rd1 to lie 21st, but I expect him to drop back today.

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Ryan Palmer to beat John Huh -111 @ Bet365
Opposing Huh again for the same reasons as above. Palmer hasn't been in great form recently, but he is still ahead of Huh this week and he did finish 7th on this course last year.

Bill Haas to beat Charlie Wi -124 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Haas hasn't played since the BMW Championship in early September, so it is no surprise that his second round was better than his first round: he shot 65 to lift him to 11th place. He should be able to beat Wi who, until his 5th place finish in South Korea three weeks ago, had shot just two rounds under 70 in his previous six starts.

Bill Haas to beat Carl Pettersson -111 @ Bet365
I'd also expect Haas to beat Pettersson, given their curiously different records on 'Moving Day'. Since the start of 2011, Haas and Pettersson have a very balanced h2h record over 72 holes - 16-15-4 - but in terms of the 3rd round, it is Haas who dominates 16-5-1. The balance in reversed in the final round, but for today's round, Haas looks the player to back in this matchup.

Brian Harman to beat Troy Matteson -120 @ Stan James
Given that he has finished outside the top-120 in has last two starts, Matteson was a surprising first round leader. It was therefore less surprising that he dropped back to 3rd place after the 2nd round. This will be the fourth time that he has held the lead after 18 holes and dropped back in rd2 - in he previous three occasions, he has shot 73-71, 69-70, and 77-78 over the weekend so I don't expect him to bounce back this time.

Marc Leishman to beat Danny Chia -125 @ SkyBet [available generally]
Two players moving in opposite directions - Chia followed his opening 66 with 75; Leishman following his opening 75 with 67; I expect the same movement to continue today. He does, after all, rank 583 places higher in the World Rankings.

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Jeff Overton to beat Gaganjeet Bhullar -157 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Bhullar has been playing well on the Asian PGA Tour recently - two wins in his last six starts - and he shot 65 in the 3rd round to climb into the top-10, but I can't see him staying there in this type of event. Overton is also in the top-10, but having finished 2nd here last year, he is more likely to move up the leaderboard in the final round that his opponent.

Tiger Woods to beat Bo Van Pelt -154 @ Bet365
It is difficult to follow up a 62 with another low round, and even more so if you are now leading the event. BVP did convert a 3rd round lead into victory in this event last year and also last week in Perth, but I still think that Tiger is much more likely to shoot a sub-70 round today.

Bo Van Pelt to beat Brendon De Jonge -125 @ Stan James
But I will back him against De Jonge who has started the final round of a PGA Tour event in the top-5 on 13 previous occasions, but has failed to win any of them. In fact, of those 13 occasions, only once has he started the final round closer to the leader than he started the round.

Jeff Overton to beat Bill Haas -125 @ Stan James
Haas fell back down the leaderboard in round 3, but having with finishes of 26th (this event last year), 21st and 42nd in his three previous starts in Asia (all were limited field events), maybe it was to be expected. Overton has shown that he can play well in Asia and on this course, so is backed in this matchup.

Mohd Siddikur to beat Danny Chia -138 @ Boyle Sports [also available @ Stan James]
Chia continued to fall down the leaderboard, while Siddikur produced his best round of the week in round 3. Siddikur has finished ahead of Chia in seven of their previous eight common events; I'd be surprised if this h2h dominance is not continued this week.