Preview & outright plays:
Played on the long and demanding Wentworth course and in less than ideal British weather, this 36-hole-per-round matchplay event is even more of a slog than the WGC Matchplay. With the format of four seeds and eight unseeded players, the benefit of being seeded and thus not playing until the quarter-finals is enormous. In the last seven years, all the winners have been seeded and only two of those fourteen finalists were unseeded. This week's seeds are Lee Westwood (1), Vijay Singh (2), Darren Clarke (3) and Colin Montgomerie (4).
This is rather too much of an obstacle for an upset to occur, in fact under normal conditions in May when the course hosts the Volvo PGA Championship, it is an event that produces very high quality winners. The winner will come from these four players, which is unfortunate as Retief Goosen can feel rather unfortunate to have been seeded behind Clarke when he is the US Open champion and Clarke has won just one match in three starts in this event. Both he and Padraig Harrington will have played close to 36 holes before facing their quarter-final opponents and it is much too long a road for these players to reach the final.
It is therefore by default that Vijay Singh is the outright selection this week. Westwood is hopelessly out-of-form and Darren Clarke does not have a good record in this event and will face Harrington in the 2nd round. Monty, for his part, has been playing better of late, but is still inconsistent. He will most likely face a tired Retief Goosen and should then the final from a semi-final against Bjorn/Scott/Westwood. Singh has played poorly on the PGA Tour recently, but his record in Europe and in this event is excellent and he should easily dispose of Mike Weir in the quarter-final on Friday to set up a meeting with Harrington or Clarke. None of the seeded players are at the peak of their games, but in matchplay Vijay warrants attention. If the matches pan out as expected, then the prop on expected finalists is also a good play. It was a 7/1 winner last year when Monty & Westwood reached the final, so maybe better odds can be found between now and Thursday, but 11/2 is still good value given the history of seeded players and finals.
Outright play:
Vijay Singh to win 9/2 @ Surrey, Ladbrokes or Centrebet
Prop:
Vijay Singh and Colin Montgomerie to contest the final 11/2 @ Bet365
1st round plays:
Adam Scott to beat Thomas Bjorn +120 @ Intertops [2 units]
Bjorn has been troubled with a shoulder injury and has not played for the past month since withdrawing from the European Masters as a precaution for the Ryder Cup. In poor form anyway since mid-summer and no wins from two previous starts, he is one to oppose this week. Scott lost a close match to Sergio Garcia in the 1st round last year, but he will have benefited from the experience
Parlay: Padraig Harrington to beat Nick Faldo & Mike Weir to beat Seve Ballesteros -131 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
Seve caused a huge upset in beating Monty in a matchplay event - the Seve Ballesteros Trophy - last year, but it won't happen against Weir who will be taking this match more seriously and is in decent form. The odds are too short by themselves, so the play is doubled up with Harrington to beat Faldo. The Irishman disappointed as an outright selection last week, but has a very good matchplay record in all events and will win this trophy when he is seeded. Barring a 3rd place finish on this course in May in the Volvo PGA Championship, there is little reason to expect any resistance from Faldo
Played on the long and demanding Wentworth course and in less than ideal British weather, this 36-hole-per-round matchplay event is even more of a slog than the WGC Matchplay. With the format of four seeds and eight unseeded players, the benefit of being seeded and thus not playing until the quarter-finals is enormous. In the last seven years, all the winners have been seeded and only two of those fourteen finalists were unseeded. This week's seeds are Lee Westwood (1), Vijay Singh (2), Darren Clarke (3) and Colin Montgomerie (4).
This is rather too much of an obstacle for an upset to occur, in fact under normal conditions in May when the course hosts the Volvo PGA Championship, it is an event that produces very high quality winners. The winner will come from these four players, which is unfortunate as Retief Goosen can feel rather unfortunate to have been seeded behind Clarke when he is the US Open champion and Clarke has won just one match in three starts in this event. Both he and Padraig Harrington will have played close to 36 holes before facing their quarter-final opponents and it is much too long a road for these players to reach the final.
It is therefore by default that Vijay Singh is the outright selection this week. Westwood is hopelessly out-of-form and Darren Clarke does not have a good record in this event and will face Harrington in the 2nd round. Monty, for his part, has been playing better of late, but is still inconsistent. He will most likely face a tired Retief Goosen and should then the final from a semi-final against Bjorn/Scott/Westwood. Singh has played poorly on the PGA Tour recently, but his record in Europe and in this event is excellent and he should easily dispose of Mike Weir in the quarter-final on Friday to set up a meeting with Harrington or Clarke. None of the seeded players are at the peak of their games, but in matchplay Vijay warrants attention. If the matches pan out as expected, then the prop on expected finalists is also a good play. It was a 7/1 winner last year when Monty & Westwood reached the final, so maybe better odds can be found between now and Thursday, but 11/2 is still good value given the history of seeded players and finals.
Outright play:
Vijay Singh to win 9/2 @ Surrey, Ladbrokes or Centrebet
Prop:
Vijay Singh and Colin Montgomerie to contest the final 11/2 @ Bet365
1st round plays:
Adam Scott to beat Thomas Bjorn +120 @ Intertops [2 units]
Bjorn has been troubled with a shoulder injury and has not played for the past month since withdrawing from the European Masters as a precaution for the Ryder Cup. In poor form anyway since mid-summer and no wins from two previous starts, he is one to oppose this week. Scott lost a close match to Sergio Garcia in the 1st round last year, but he will have benefited from the experience
Parlay: Padraig Harrington to beat Nick Faldo & Mike Weir to beat Seve Ballesteros -131 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
Seve caused a huge upset in beating Monty in a matchplay event - the Seve Ballesteros Trophy - last year, but it won't happen against Weir who will be taking this match more seriously and is in decent form. The odds are too short by themselves, so the play is doubled up with Harrington to beat Faldo. The Irishman disappointed as an outright selection last week, but has a very good matchplay record in all events and will win this trophy when he is seeded. Barring a 3rd place finish on this course in May in the Volvo PGA Championship, there is little reason to expect any resistance from Faldo
