Cleveland-Florida series...some thoughts and a play tonight

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ndnfan

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FLORIDA ?103:


Over and above the normal handicapping stats, sometimes the stats and situations that we don?t pay enough attention to end up playing the biggest role in deciding the outcome of the game. I think this is definitely the case today in the Cleveland-Florida match-up and is also something that must be taken into consideration for the rest of this series as well.

What am I talking about? Well, I think stolen bases and overall team speed plays a major role in this series?especially tonight. Please understand both starters seem to have very bright futures as both have shown flashes of brilliance, but today I?ll have to lean with Dontrelle Willis and the Florida Marlins because of that team speed.

Simply put, Cleveland?s starter, Cliff Lee, has had a hard time keeping runners in check. The coaching staff is actually content with this for now as they realize he is young and want him to concentrate on the hitters for now, but the fact is, it might hurt him tonight. I?m pretty sure only 1 runner has been thrown out trying to steal off him this season and this coupled with Cleveland?s catcher, Victor Martinez, who has only thrown out 25 of 95 runners in his young career, I?m sure the Florida base runners are well aware of this and will look to take advantage if the opportunity arises.

Both teams will be facing these starters for the first time and with Dontrelle Willis?s funky delivery, he can be extremely tough the first time any team faces him which is one more reason I?ll edge with the Marlins in this game. Florida also has a better overall bullpen than Cleveland.

If you have confidence in the Tribe?s bullpen, you may also want to take a look at the Under, but I definitely Do NOT have any faith in their pen and think your best bet in this game is to take the Florida Marlins at a very reasonable price.

Good luck to everyone!

-ndnfan
 
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Goose

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Nice write-up Pete...I love the Fish tonight!

I agree with your stance on Dontrelle being tough to hit for any club the first time around. Add to the fact that the Tribe has had a great deal of difficulty hitting Southpaws this year. I don't have the numbers in front of me.....something like 4-9. :shrug:

The Marlins are definitely my favorite play of the day...
 

OnaJ

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Why go against Cliff Lee as a home underdog? He just matched Barry Zito pitch for pitch a few weeks ago at his home park. Marlins seem to have some internal issues after Beckett and Burnett ripped the organization.
 
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Goose

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In my opinion....this is more of a go-against in terms of the Tribe not being able to get to Dontrelle....as opposed to Lee not being able to get the job done. If these 2 match zeroes toward the later innings, I certainly have more faith in the Marlin bullie than the Tribe's...

Strangely enough, the weather in Cleveland today is approaching 90 degrees--something the Fish are more used to than the Indians are... If this heat wears down Lee early, and that bullpen gets called upon earlier than expected...it will set up nicely for the Marlins.
 

DJTranks

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heleanth said:
Thanks, Pete! Nice to see you on a hot streak at your site. Continued success to you.

Mike:)

Whats the site? I remember you from last year bro - very solid, GL!
 

ndnfan

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Goose said:
In my opinion....this is more of a go-against in terms of the Tribe not being able to get to Dontrelle....as opposed to Lee not being able to get the job done. If these 2 match zeroes toward the later innings, I certainly have more faith in the Marlin bullie than the Tribe's...

Strangely enough, the weather in Cleveland today is approaching 90 degrees--something the Fish are more used to than the Indians are... If this heat wears down Lee early, and that bullpen gets called upon earlier than expected...it will set up nicely for the Marlins.


OnaJ.....I think Goose just said it best. Any Cleveland fan has almost come to expect a good game from Lee and both could possibly be matching zeroes early, but the point I was trying to make is that any baserunners could very well be at a premium today(at least in the early parts of this game) and in a tight game, a stolen base could be huge if it get's them in scoring position.

The game you're talking about vs Zito and Oakland, Lee did pitch very well, but walked 5 batters. Problem is Oakland's not a team that will run on you as much as a team like Florida will.

I also don't have the numbers in front of me, but can tell you for a fact that Cleveland is ranked right toward the bottom if not at the bottom in runs scored from the 7th inning on, so that bullpen edge Florida has could mean even more if it's a close game in the later innings.

Just my .02

Good luck today
 
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