CNOTES 2023-2024 COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS + NEWS AND NOTES

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Pending Picks​

SATURDAY, AUGUST 26​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
NAVY at ND02:30 PMND -20.5
U 48.5		+500 +500
UTEP at JSU05:30 PMJSU +1.5
U 54.0		+500 +500
MASS at NMSU07:00 PMMASS +7.0
O 45.0		+500 +500
OHIO at SDSU07:00 PMOHIO +2.5
O 47.5		+500 +500
HAW at VAN07:30 PMVAN -17.5
U 56.0		+500 +500
SJSU at USC08:00 PMSJSU +31.0
O 66.0		+500 +500
FIU at LT09:00 PMFIU +12.5
O 57.5		+500 +500




 
Udog

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UTEP is 34-60 ATS (-32 Units) in the first month of the season since 1992.

MASSACHUSETTS are 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.

SAN DIEGO ST is 84-44 Under (35.6 Units) in the first half of the season since 1992.

VANDERBILT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in the first half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

LOUISIANA TECH is 9-1 Over (7.9 Units) in home games in home games in the last 3 seasons.

Lincoln Riley is 19-7 ATS (11.3 Units) in home games at home when the total is 63+ (All games)





NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 0

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 0

Saturday, August 26

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 0

August 26

Navy vs Notre Dame (@ Ireland)
Navy
— Navy was 11-23 SU last three years; new coach was DC last year.
— Newberry has never been a head coach before.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- improvement is expected.
— Unclear who QB will be.
— Last ten years, Navy is 31-21-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Last ten years, Navy is 18-13 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last five years, Middies are +15 in turnovers.
— Navy hasn’t been in a bowl since their 11-2 season in 2019.
Notre Dame
— Last six years, Notre Dame is 63-14 SU.
— LY’s offensive coordinator bolted to Alabama; new OC was TE coach.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line- new OL coach was at Wisconsin for 7 years.
— Senior QB Hartman started 45 games at Wake Forest.
— Irish were 1-4 ATS as a favorite LY (18-9-2 from 2019-21).
— Notre Dame was minus-3 in turnovers LY (+32 from 2019-21)
— Irish lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
— Notre Dame won last five meetings (2-3 ATS)
— Last year, Irish (-16) beat Navy 35-32 (total yards: 363-335, Navy)
UTEP @ Jacksonville State
UTEP
— UTEP was 7-6/5-7 last two years (one winning season last 10 years)
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 122 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 29 starts.
— Under Dimel, Miners are 28-35 ATS on the road.
— Last three years, UTEP is 12-8 ATS in conference games.
— Last five years, UTEP is minus-43 in turnovers.
— Miners have played in one bowl since 2014 (2021 New Mexico Bowl)
Jacksonville State
— This is Jacksonville State’s first season in I-A football
— Coach is Rich Rodriguez (has coached West Va, Michigan, Arizona)
— In his career, Rodriguez is 46-54-2 ATS in home games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 43 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 22 starts.
— This is their first year in I-A, so no pointspread trends.
— Last 3 years, Gamecocks were 24-11 SU, at I-AA level.
UMass @ New Mexico State
UMass
— Last four years, UMass is 3-37 SU/13-26-1 ATS
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 87 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has 16 starts; they added a transfer QB from Georgia Tech.
— Since 2018, UMass is 7-20-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Only UMass win last year was 20-3 over I-AA Stony Brook.
— Minutemen lost their last 24 road games SU.
— UMass hasn’t been to a bowl since the 1972 Boardwalk Bowl.
New Mexico State
— Aggies went 7-6 LY (went 8-30 from 2018-21)
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- four starters are back
— junior QB has 8 starts.
— Last four years, Aggies are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— In his career, coach Kill is 22-17 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last year was Aggies’ first bowl since 2017.
— Aggies beat UMass last two years, 44-27/23-13.
Ohio U @ San Diego State
Ohio U
— Ohio was 10-4 last season, after going 3-9 in 2021.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they’re expected to improve.
— soph QB has started 19 games.
— since 2015, Bobcats are 13-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Bobcats are 4-10 ATS outside the MAC
— Ohio U won/covered its last four bowl games.
San Diego State
— Last eight years, Aztecs are 74-30 SU
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 53 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— Aztecs are 18-32 ATS in last 50 games as a home favorite.
— Last 4 years, San Diego State is 10-7 ATS in non-conference games.
— San Diego State is 2-3 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— Ohio (-2.5) beat San Diego State 27-0 in 2018 Frisco Bowl.
— Last two years, Mountain West teams are 5-3-2 ATS vs MAC opponents.
Hawai’i @ Vanderbilt
Hawai’i
—last three years, Rainbows are 14-21 SU.
— 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 67 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 13 career starts.
— Last five years, Hawai’i is 11-17 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last two years, Rainbows are 3-7 ATS out of conference.
— Hawai’i won three of its last four bowl games.
Vanderbilt
— Last four years, Vandy is 10-35 SU; last bowl was 2018.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 81 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 6 games last year.
— Last 4 years, Commodores are 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Lea, Vandy is 3-10 ATS at home, 8-3 ATS on road.
— Vandy lost last two bowls 41-17/45-38; their last bowl win was in 2013.
— Vanderbilt (-9) whacked Hawai’i 63-10 in LY’s opener.
— Since 2018, SEC teams are 10-5 ATS against Mountain West opponents.
San Jose State @ USC
San Jose State
— last 3 years, Spartans are 19-13 SU (27-59 from 2013-19)
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 35 games, 23 at Hawai’i.
— Since 2014, Spartans are 16-24 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last three years, San Jose is 3-6 ATS out of conference.
— Spartans lost last two bowls; their last bowl win was in 2015.
USC
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has started 21 games, is favored to win Heisman Trophy.
— In his career, Riley is 23-15 ATS as a home favorite, 5-2 at USC.
— In his career, underdog is 17-8-1 ATS in Riley’s road games.
— USC is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 3 of 5 games)
— Their last bowl win was 52-49 over Penn State in 2016 Rose Bowl
— USC (-14) beat San Jose State here two years ago.
— Pac-12 teams were 7-3 ATS vs Mountain West LY (15-25 ATS from 2017-21)
FIU @ Louisiana Tech
Florida International
— last four years, FIU is 11-31 ATS, 13-28-1 ATS
— junior QB started 10 games last year.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line, with a new OL coach
— Last four years, Panthers are 5-13 ATS as a road underdog..
— FIU was 4-4 ATS in conference LY (2-16-1 ATS from 2019-21)
— FIU lost three of last four bowls SU; they haven’t been to bowl since 2019.
Louisiana Tech
— Tech went 3-9/3-9 SU the last two years.
— junior QB started 29 games at Boise State.
— 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; one guy is in his 7th college season.
— since 2017, Bulldogs are 10-13 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2017, Bulldogs are 19-22-1 ATS in conference games.
— Tech won four of last five bowls SU (last bowl was in 2020).
— FIU (+6) beat Louisiana Tech 42-34 in OT last year.




NCAAF

Week 0

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Trend Report
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August 26

Navy @ Notre Dame
Navy
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Navy's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Navy's last 12 games when playing Notre Dame
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Navy
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Notre Dame's last 5 games

Texas El Paso @ Jacksonville State
Texas El Paso
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas El Paso's last 5 games on the road
Texas El Paso is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games

Massachusetts @ New Mexico State
Massachusetts
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Massachusetts's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Massachusetts's last 10 games
New Mexico State
New Mexico State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New Mexico State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Ohio @ San Diego State
Ohio
Ohio is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Ohio is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games
San Diego State
San Diego State is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State's last 7 games at home

Hawaii @ Vanderbilt
Hawaii
Hawaii is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hawaii's last 8 games
Vanderbilt
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vanderbilt's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vanderbilt's last 6 games at home

San Jose State @ Southern California
San Jose State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Jose State's last 6 games
San Jose State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Southern California
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern California's last 5 games
Southern California is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose State

Florida International @ Louisiana Tech
Florida International
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida International's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Florida International's last 24 games on the road
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana Tech's last 5 games at home



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Forgot to post but this is what i played

Pending Picks​

SATURDAY, AUGUST 26​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
NAVY at ND02:30 PMND -20.5
U 48.5		+500 +500
UTEP at JSU05:30 PMJSU +1.5
U 54.0		+500 +500
MASS at NMSU07:00 PMMASS +7.0
O 45.0		+500 +500
OHIO at SDSU07:00 PMOHIO +2.5
O 47.5		+500 +500
HAW at VAN07:30 PMVAN -17.5
U 56.0		+500 +500
SJSU at USC08:00 PMSJSU +31.0
O 66.0		+500 +500
FIU at LT09:00 PMFIU +12.5
O 57.5		+500 +500
 
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BEST BETS AUGUST THRU SEPT.

08/26/2023.............................6 - 4............................60.00%................................+ 8.00
 
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NCAAF

Week 1

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Trend Report
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Thursday
Kent State @ Central Florida
Kent State
— Kent State’s head coach quit to be the OC at Colorado.
— Golden Flashes are 22-21 SU the last four years.
— 0 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— They might be the least experienced team in the country.
— 5 starts back on offensive line.
— they added transfer QB’s from Purdue, Kansas State
— Last six years, Kent is 13-18 ATS as a road underdog.
— New coach Burns has never been a HC; he was an assistant at Minnesota.
— Kent played in two bowls the last four years, their 3rd/4th all-time.

Central Florida
— UCF is 18-9 in two years under Malzahn.
— The four years before he got there, UCF was 41-8.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB Plumlee started 22 games, mostly at Ole Miss
— Last three years, Knights are 6-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— In his career, Malzahn is 28-33-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— UCF was minus-5 in turnovers LY (+54 the previous five years)
— UCF has a high profile game at Boise State next week.

— These teams haven’t met since 2004.

NC State @ UConn
NC State
— Last three years, State is 25-12 SU, 19-18 ATS
— Last four years, Wolfpack is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB Armstrong started 30 games at Virginia; he’s good.
— Last four years, Wolfpack is 6-9 ATS out of conference.
— State hasn’t won a bowl game since 2017 (0-3 since)
— Wolfpack has Notre Dame visiting Raleigh next week.

UConn
— Jim Mora Jr is in his 2nd year here; they were 6-7 last year.
— From 2016-21, Huskies were 10-50 SU (no games in 2020)
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 102 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has 12 starts LY; they added a grad transfer from Maine.
— Since 2019, UConn is 9-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his college career, Mora is 16-17 ATS as an underdog.
— Last year was UConn’s first bowl since 2015.

— NC State (-38) whacked UConn 41-10 last year.

Nebraska @ Minnesota
Nebraska
— Last six years, Nebraska is 23-45 SU, 30-36-2 ATS
— Matt Rhule is the new coach; he was good at Temple/Baylor.
— As a college coach, Rhule is 31-13 ATS as an underdog.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line.
— new QB started 23 games at Georgia Tech.
— since 2017, Nebraska is 14-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Nebraska’s last bowl game was 2016.
— Huskers haven’t had a positive turnover ratio since 2016.

Minnesota
— Gophers went 9-4/9-4 the last two seasons.
— In his career, Fleck is 20-15-1 ATS as a favorite.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 49 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started five games last year.
— Last five years, Minnesota is 11-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last four years, Minnesota is 21-12-1 ATS in Big 14 games.
— Gophers played in a bowl four of last five years.

— Minnesota won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
— Home team is 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS in this series.
— Three of last four meetings stayed under the total.

Florida @ Utah
Florida
— Last two years, Gators went 6-7/6-7; the natives are restless.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 74 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 32 games at Wisconsin
— Gators were 3-0 ATS as a road dog LY (2-5 from 2016-21)
— Gators are 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
— Florida was +8 in turnovers LY (minus-12 in 2020-21)
— Florida lost its last three bowls, outscored 114-40.

Utah
— Last four years, Utah is 34-13 SU, 27-20 ATS
— In his career, Whittingham is 48-39-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 24 career starts
— Since 2017, Utes are 21-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2018, Utes are 5-10-1 ATS in non-conference games.
— Utah lost its last four bowl games, giving up 38 ppg.

— Utah (-2.5) lost 29-26 at Florida last year.
— Florida ran ball for 283 yards, Utah 230.
 
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Thursday
NC STATE is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.

Kyle Whittingham is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) as an favorite of 3.5-10 (Coach of UTAH)

Matt Rhule (Coach of NEBRASKA) is 25-8 ATS (16.2 Units) in road games against conference opponents (All games)
 
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Friday
MIAMI OHIO is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) on the road when the total is 45.5-49 since 1992.

MICHIGAN ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games as a home fav. of 10.5-14 since 1992.

LOUISVILLE is 24-10 ATS (13 Units) in road games when the total is 42.5-49 since 1992.

HAWAII is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Miami OH @ Miami FL
Miami OH
— Last four years, Red Hawks are 23-20 SU, 21-22 ATS.
— Miami was 6-7 LY despite a +11 turnover ratio.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 61 starts back on offensive line- lost 2 starters to transfer portal.
— senior QB has 29 career starts
— Last four years, Miami is 6-10 ATS as a road underdog.
— Red Hawks are 7-16 ATS in last 23 non-conference games.
— Miami played in bowls three of last four years, going 1-2.

Miami FL
— Last two years, Miami is 12-12 SU, 8-16 ATS.
— 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has t18 career starts.
— Miami is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
— In his career, Cristobal is 14-26-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Hurricanes are 7-13 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games.
— Miami hasn’t been to a bowl since 2020; last bowl win? 2016.

— Since 2016, ACC teams are 15-7 ATS vs MAC opponents.
— These teams haven’t met since 1987.

Central Michigan @ Michigan State
Central Michigan
— Chippewas were 4-8 LY, their first losing year since 2018.
— Central was minus-18 in turnovers LY (+7 previous 2 years)
— 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line.
— both returning QB’s have one career start.
— Since 2014, CMU is 23-10 ATS as a road underdog.
— In his career, McElwain is 22-18-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Chippewas went bowling in five of last eight years (1-4).

Michigan State
— Three years under Tucker: 2-5/11-2/6-7…….17-13-2 ATS
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 77 starts back on offensive line.
— QB bolted to Auburn; this year’s QB is inexperienced.
— Under Tucker, Spartans are 5-4 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Tucker, Spartans are 6-1 ATS in non-conference tilts.
— Michigan State went bowling four of last six years (3-1).

— These teams last met in 2018.
— Since 2018, Big 14 teams are 27-12 ATS vs MAC opponents.

Louisville vs Georgia Tech (@ Atlanta)
Louisville
— Last coach went 26-24 in four years, bolted to Cincinnati.
— New coach Brohm is a Louisville alum (66-44 as a HC)
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 150 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 12 games at Cal last year.
— Last four years, Louisville was 3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his career, Brohm is 39-40 ATS as a favorite.
— Cardinals went bowling five of last seven years (2-3).

Georgia Tech
— Georgia Tech hasn’t had a winning season since 2018.
— GT was 5-7 last year, despite being +11 in turnovers.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 7 games at Texas A&M.
— Tech is 15-18-1 ATS in last 34 games vs ACC opponents.
— Since 2016, Tech is 6-13 ATS as a home underdog.
— Yellow Jackets haven’t gone bowling since 2018; last bowl win? 2016.

— Game is in Atlanta, but not in Tech’s home stadium.
— Tech won last two meetings, 46-27/66-31.
— Teams last met in 2020.

Stanford @ Hawai’i
Stanford
— Last two years, Cardinal went 3-9/3-9; now they’ve got new coach.
— Stanford was -10/-10 in turnovers the last two years.
— 3 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 15 starts back on offensive line.
— New coach, inexperienced QB, only 6 of 22 starters back.
— Last four years, Stanford is 1-2-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Cardinal is 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— Stanford hasn’t gone bowling since 2018.

Hawai’i
— Last 2+ years, Hawai’i is 9-18 SU/15-11-1 ATS
— Last 5+ years, Rainbows are minus-27 in turnovers (minus-8 LY)
— 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 67 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 13 career starts.
— Last 4 years, Hawai’i is 11-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last 2+ years, Hawai’i is 4-7 ATS in non-conference games.
— Rainbows were 7-2 ATS last year, coming off a SU loss.
— Last week, Hawai’i (+16) lost 35-28 at Vanderbilt.
— Rainbows outgained Vandy 391-297, were minus-2 in TO’s.

— These teams haven’t met since 1972.
— LY, Pac-12 teams were 6-3 ATS vs Mountain West opponents.
 
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Friday’s 6-pack:
Major league leaders in runs scored:
120— Ronald Acuna
116— Mookie Betts
111— Freddie Freeman
103— Matt Olson
101— Shohei Ohtani
99— Marcus Semien

Quote of the Day
“Yo, we talked about the Jets and the Cowboys for the three-millionth time in a row.”
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky, apparently not happy with his work on the radio

Friday’s quiz
Dallas Cowboys have won Super Bowls under which three head coaches?

Thursday’s quiz
In the classic TV show The Odd Couple, Murray the cop was a friend of Felix/Oscar’s.

Wednesday’s quiz
George Brett (317) has hit the most home runs in Kansas City Royals’ history.

*********************************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the long weekend here…….​

— Braves 8, Dodgers 7
Ronald Acuna is the first player EVER with 30+ homers, 60+ stolen bases in same season.
Atlanta scored six runs in 2nd inning, then hung on down the stretch.

— Was making a sandwich in my kitchen the other night, was slicing it on a cutting board when I remembered that I actually made that cutting board in a high school shop class, in 1976.
I am the least handy person you know, a total klutz with tools, but I survived three years of shop class in high school without losing any fingers or limbs. My shop teacher was the best teacher I had in high school, not even close.
Guy’s name is Joe Botta; he had tremendous patience, teaching a nerdy kid like me how to do things. We would talk about sports while we worked; one year he and the other shop teacher, Mr Cavotta, hit the football parlay sheets 2-3 weeks in a row— a kid in our class distributed the sheets— his father was a bookie.
Joe Botta was a big Joe Namath fan; Broadway Joe was still playing back then.
Years later, maybe 1999 or so, I’m at a high school football game, and the QB for one of the teams is wearing white shoes, only kid on the field wearing white shoes, just like Joe Namath did. I look at the program, and the kid’s last name is Botta; turns out it was Mr Botta’s son.
Anyway, with school starting around here next week, wanted to give a shout out to the best teacher I ever had in high school. Thank you, Joe Botta.

— When the NFL season starts, don’t overreact to what happens in weeks 1-2; a 17-game season has its share of twists/turns.
Not sure why, but was thinking about an old Steelers team this week, turns out it was 1989. In Week 1, they lost 51-0 at home to Cleveland; in Week 2, they lost 41-10 at Cincinnati. No bueno.
People were calling for coach Chuck Noll to quit, that his days were done, but the Steelers rallied to go 9-7, made the playoffs, even won a playoff game, before losing 24-23 at Denver to finish their season. Don’t overreact to the first week or two of the year.
In case you were wondering, Bubby Brister (16), Todd Blackledge (2) started games at QB for the Steelers that season.

— Utah 24, Florida 11
Utah’s star QB Rising (knee) sat this game out.
Utes’ backup QB threw a 70-yard TD pass on Utah’s first offensive play.
Utes’ #3 QB had a 27-yard TD run late in second quarter.

— Minnesota 13, Nebraska 10
Gophers kicked a 47-yard FG at the gun for the comeback win.
Minnesota tied game 10-10 on a 13-yard TD pass with 2:32 left to play.
Gophers were +3 in turnovers (4-1); they were outgained, 295-251.

— NC State 24, UConn 14
Wolfpack outgained UConn, 364-273
Virginia transfer QB Armstrong ran for 95 yards and 2 TD’s, threw for 155 more.

— JT Daniels is the quarterback at Rice this year; what a journey he is having:
2018-19— USC— He left high school early to play for the Trojans.
2020-21— Georgia— He wound up backing up Stetson Bennett, won a national title.
2022— West Virginia— He got benched midway thru the season.
2023— Rice
Six years, four schools; he can write a hell of a book.
Daniels’ Owls visit the Texas Longhorns this week; it is the third time he’s played in Austin, with three different teams.

— NFL Trend of the Day— last three years, Atlanta Falcons were 2-8-1 ATS as home favorites.

— New England claimed QB Matt Corral on waivers from Carolina; Corral was a good QB at Ole Miss, he played in his team’s bowl game his last year there and screwed up his ankle, which hurt his draft status, but now he’ll be backing up Mac Jones in Foxboro.

— Angels put six players on waivers this week, basically giving them away; Thursday they lost five of the players- no one put a bid in on OF Randall Grichuk.
Cleveland took three of the guys: P Lucas Giolito, relievers Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore.
Cincinnati took OF’s Hunter Renfroe from the Angels and Harrison Bader from New York.
Seattle picked up reliever Dominic Leone from Anaheim.
The moves save the Angels $5.7M in salary.

— Milwaukee Brewers signed 3B Josh Donaldson to a minor league deal.

— Detroit 4, New York 3
Anthony Volpe’s 3-run homer in 9th inning tied game 3-3
Gleyber Torres’ throwing error allowed winning run to score for Detroit.

— Marlins 6, Nationals 1
First four guys in Miami’s lineup went 8-19, with 5 runs scored, 4 RBI
— Since All Star break, Cubs are 9-1 in games where winning run scored from 7th inning on.

— Pro Football Hall of Famer Gil Brandt passed away this week, at age 91.
Working with head coach Tom Landry and GM Tex Schramm, Brandt helped turn the Dallas Cowboys from an expansion team in 1960 into a perennial league power.
Brandt helped revolutionize the NFL’s scouting industry by using computers and algorithms into the player evaluation process, long before that was a thing to do.
Brandt left no stone unturned when looking for players; he was one of the first NFL talent evaluators to take historically black colleges and universities seriously as sources of talent— Dallas wound up with Bob Hayes, Everson Walls and Too Tall Jones from HBCU’s.
Even in his 80’s, Brandt was active on Twitter, sharing ideas.
RIP, sir.
 
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FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 1​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
HOW at EMU06:30 PMEMU -24.0
U 53.5		+500 +500
M-OH at MIA07:00 PMMIA -17.0
U 45.5		+500 +500
CMU at MSU07:00 PMCMU +14.0
U 45.0		+500 +500
LOU at GT07:30 PMGT +7.5
O 50.0		+500 +500
MOSU at KU08:00 PMKU -29.0
U 59.0		+500 +500
STAN at HAW11:00 PMHAW +3.0
U 55.5		+500 +500
 
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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 1

FCS
Date: September 1
Time: 6:30 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Howard 56.910; Eastern Michigan 74.864
Dunkel Line & Total: Eastern Michigan by 18; 50
Vegas Line & Total: Eastern Michigan by 24 ½; 54
Dunkel Pick: Howard (+24 ½); Under
 
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Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Saturday’s top 13 games

Virginia @ Tennessee
Virginia
— Virginia was 3-7 LY, their first losing year since 2017.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 17 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 23 games at I-AA Monmouth
— previous QB started 30 games, transferred to NC State.
— since 2018, Virginia is 11-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— since 2014, Cavaliers are 21-14 ATS outside the ACC.
— Virginia hasn’t gone bowling since 2019 (’21 game was cancelled)
Tennessee
— Tennessee was 11-2 LY (27-33 previous five years)
— Vols were +11 in turnovers LY (minus-9 previous six years)
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 93 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB has 9 starts; they added a 5-star freshman QB.
— Under Heupel, Tennessee is 8-2 ATS outside the SEC
— Under Heupel, Tennessee is 11-4 ATS as a favorite.
— Vols are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five bowls.
— Teams haven’t met since 1990.
— since 2018, SEC teams are 31-16 ATS vs ACC opponents.

Colorado @ TCU
Colorado
— Last six years, Buffs are 24-42 SU/26-39-2 ATS
— Deion Sanders is the new coach (27-6 at I-AA Jackson State)
— 6 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 44 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB Sanders started 26 games for his dad at Jackson State
— Last four years, Colorado is 4-13 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last two years, Buffs were 1-5 ATS out of conference.
— Colorado’s new OC was a good head coach at Kent State.
— Colorado hasn’t gone bowling since 2020; their last bowl win, 2004.
TCU
— TCU went 13-2 LY, but lost national title game 65-7 to Georgia.
— Four years before LY, Horned Frogs were 22-23 SU.
— 3 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started three games.
— in his career, coach Dykes is 25-18 ATS as a home favorite.
— last year was Dykes’ first year at TCU.
— since 2016, TCU is 10-17-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2014, Frogs are 18-12-2 ATS outside the Big X.
— TCU qualified for a bowl in four of last six seasons.
— TCU (-14) whipped Colorado 38-13 in Boulder LY.
— since 2018, Big X teams are 12-4 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.

Fresno State @ Purdue
Fresno State
— last two years, Bulldogs went 10-3/10-4.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 11 games at UCF.
— since 2017, Fresno is 10-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— in his career, Tedford is 22-16 ATS as a road underdog.
— last six years, Fresno is 14-9-1 ATS outside Mountain West.
— last five years, Bulldogs are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in bowl games.
Purdue
— Purdue went 9-4/8-6 last 2 years; coach bolted to Louisville.
— new coach Walters was defensive coordinator at Illinois.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started five games at Texas.
— last five years, Purdue was 4-13 ATS as a home favorite.
— Boilers are 13-9 ATS in last 22 non-conference games.
— Purdue hasn’t finished year with + turnover ratio since 2017.
— Boilers went bowling four of last six years.
— First meeting between these teams.
— since 2017, MW teams are 10-6-1 ATS vs Big 14 opponents,

Louisiana Tech @ SMU
Louisiana Tech (1-0)
— last two years, Tech went 3-9/3-9.
— 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 29 games at Boise State.
— Tech is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road dog.
— Tech beat FIU 22-19 LW, after falling behind 14-0.
— Bulldogs outgained FIU 447-182, threw for 333 yards.
— Bulldogs haven’t been to a bowl since 2020.
SMU
— last 4 years, SMU was 32-16 SU/23-25 ATS.
— last six years, Mustangs are 16-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 123 starts back on offensive line.
— LY’s QB bolted to Wisconsin; soph QB started once LY.
— Last four years, SMU is 10-7 ATS outside the SEC
— Mustangs have high-profile game at Oklahoma next week.
— SMU qualified for a bowl 4 of last 5 years; last bowl win, 2012.
— two years ago, SMU (-11) nipped Tech 39-37 in Ruston.
— last two years, C-USA teams are 7-5 ATS vs AAC teams.

Northern Illinois @ Boston College
Northern Illinois
— last three years, Huskies went 0-6/9-5/3-9 SU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 117 starts back on offensive line; they’re supposed to be good.
— used four QB’s LY; they’re all back this year.
— Under Hammock, NIU is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Huskies are 8-3 ATS in last 11 non-MAC games.
— NIU was +3 in turnovers LY, their first plus season in last seven.
— NIU went to one bowl the last four years.
Boston College
— under Hafley, Eagles are 15-20 SU/16-19 ATS
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line; much improved.
— soph QB started four games LY
— last four years, BC is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Eagles are 4-10 ATS in last 14 non-conference games.
— Boston College was minus-12 in turnovers LY.
— BC hasn’t played in a bowl since 2019 (one in ’21 was cancelled).
— Since 2016, ACC teams are 16-8 ATS vs MAC opponents.
— Last time NIU visited Boston College was 2015.

Akron @ Temple
Akron
— last four years, Akron is 5-37 SU/15-27 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 64 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 10 games LY, after playing JC ball.
— last two years, Akron is 7-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— last four years, Akron is 2-10 ATS in non-conference games.
— last five years, Zips are minus-41 in turnovers.
— Akron hasn’t gone bowling since 2017.
Temple
— last three years, Owls were 1-6/3-9/3-9.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 40 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 10 games LY; he is Kurt Warner’s son.
— last four years, Temple is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— last nine years, Owls are 19-17 ATS in non-conference games.
— Temple was minus-11 in turnovers last year (+3 previous 6 years)
— Temple hasn’t been to a bowl since 2019.
— Since 2016, AAC teams are 9-6 ATS vs MAC opponents.
— Temple won/covered last six series games.

Boise State @ Washington
Boise State
— Last nine years, Boise State is 86-28 SU.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started 10 games.
— Last four years, Boise is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2019, Broncos are 5-10 ATS in non-conference games.
— Last six years, Boise is +31 in turnovers (+3 LY).
— Since 2017, Broncos are 2-1 SU in bowls, also had 2 bowls cancelled.
Washington
— Washington was 11-2 LY, DeBoer’s first season in Seattle.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 36 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 30 starts; 17 here, 13 at Indiana.
— last four years, Huskies are 11-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Washington is 9-2 ATS in last 11 non-conference tilts.
— In his career, DeBoer is 15-11 ATS as a favorite.
— Last year was Washington’s first bowl since 2019.
— LY, Pac-12 teams were 6-3 ATS vs Mountain West opponents.
— Washington is 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS in series games.
— Huskies (-3.5) beat Boise 38-7 in last meeting, 2019 Las Vegas Bowl.

South Florida @ Western Kentucky
South Florida
— last four years, USF is 8-37 SU/22-22-1 ATS
— new HC Golesh was OC at Tennessee last two years.
— 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 40 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 7 starts.
— last three years, Bulls are 8-7-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— last three years, Bulls are 4-6-1 ATS out of conference.
— USF hasn’t been to a bowl since 2018.
Western Kentucky
— last two years, WKU was 9-5/9-5.
— last two years, Hilltoppers were +10/+11 in turnovers.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 56 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 14 games LY, threw for 4,744 yards, 40 TD’s.
— last two years, WKU is 7-4 ATS as a home favorite.
— last two years, Hilltoppers are 7-4 ATS out of conference.
— WKU has been to a bowl the last four years (3-1).
— Teams haven’t met since 2015.
— last two years, C-USA teams are 7-5 ATS vs AAC teams.

California @ North Texas
California
— last three years, Cal is 10-18 SU/15-13 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line.
— QB bolted to Louisville; new QB was sub at TCU.
— since 2016, Golden Bears are 2-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2018, Cal is 6-8 ATS outside the Pac-12.
— Bears have Auburn visiting Berkeley next week.
— Cal hasn’t been to a bowl since 2019.
North Texas
— North Texas hasn’t had a winning season since 2018.
— new HC was 24-18 at I-AA Incarnate Word.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 157 starts back on offensive line; they’re supposed to be good.
— junior QB started 18 games at UL-Monroe.
— since 2016, Mean Green is 6-7 ATS as a home underdog.
— since 2019, UNT is 7-10 ATS out of conference.
— UNT went bowling five of last six years (0-5 SU/1-4 ATS).
— since 2017, AAC teams are 7-1 SU/8-0 ATS vs Pac-12 teams.
— Cal (-14) won previous meeting 23-17, four years ago.

Army @ UL-Monroe
Army
— last three years, Army went 9-3/9-4/6-6
— since 2015, Cadets are 5-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; they’re changing offenses.
— whoever the QB is, he’ll be inexperienced.
— last three years, Army was +4/+8/+6 in turnovers.
— since 2016, Army is 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in bowls.
UL-Monroe
— Terry Bowden is 8-16 SU in two years at ULM.
— Under Bowden, Warhawks are 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 46 starts back on offensive line.
— QB bolted to North Texas; his replacement will be inexperienced.
— since 2018, ULM is 5-13-1 ATS outside the Sun Belt
— last five years, ULM is minus-26 in turnovers.
— Warhawks have been to one bowl, back in 2012.
— Army (-21) beat ULM 37-7 in 2020, 48-24 (-6.5) LY, both at home.

Washington State @ Colorado State
Washington State
— Wazzu went 7-6/7-6 in Dickert’s first two years as HC.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 13 games LY, threw for 3,231 yards, 23 TD’s.
— since 2018, Coogs are 6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Wazzu is 7-12-1 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.
— under Dickert, Coogs have been +11/+3 in turnovers.
— Wazzu went bowling five of last six years (1-4 SU/0-5 ATS)
Colorado State
— Last five years, Colorado State is 14-38 SU.
— During those five years, Rams are minus-30 in turnovers.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 46 starts back on offensive line, but only one starter is back.
— soph QB Millen has 10 career starts
— Since 2019, Colorado State is 5-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Rams lost their last four bowls, giving up 41.3 ppg.
— Their last bowl win was in 2013, 48-45 over Washington State.
— Coogs (-16) beat Colorado State 38-7 LY in Pullman.
— LY, Pac-12 teams were 6-3 ATS vs Mountain West opponents.

West Virginia @ Penn State
West Virginia
— WVU is 22-25 SU/ATS in four years under Brown.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line
— whoever QB is will be inexperienced.
— Under Brown, WVU is 13-16 ATS as an underdog.
— In his career, Brown is 17-11 ATS as a road dog.
— last five years, WVU is 8-5 ATS outside the Big X.
— since 2016, West Virginia is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in bowl games
Penn State
— Last two years, Penn State is +11/+6 in turnovers.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB threw 60 passes as the backup LY.
— last two years, Penn State is 7-4-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Nittany Lions are 12-5-1 ATS in last 18 games as a favorite.
— Penn State is 13-7 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.
— Last six years, Penn State is 3-2 SU/ATS in bowls.
— Former rivals haven’t played since 1992.
— since 2014, Big X teams are 13-11-1 ATS vs Big 14 opponents.

North Carolina vs South Carolina, @ Charlotte
North Carolina
— in 4 years under Brown, UNC is 30-22 SU/24-27-1 ATS.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has 14 starts; he threw 38 TD’s last year.
— last 4 years, Tar Heels are 15-19-1 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2018, UNC is 9-10-1 ATS outside the ACC.
— Carolina went bowling last four years, lost last three.
— since 2014, Tar Heels are 3-8-1 ATS on neutral fields.
South Carolina
— in Beamer’s first two years, South Carolina went 7-6/8-5
— 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they added two I-AA transfers, too.
— Junior QB has 30 starts, 13 of them at Oklahoma.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS outside the SEC.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 7-7 ATS as an underdog.
— SC’s new offensive coordinator has been an OC in the NFL.
— Carolina is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in last five bowls.
— South Carolina won four of last five meetings.
— since 2018, SEC teams are 31-16 ATS vs ACC opponents.
 
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Saturday

LIBERTY is 38-19 ATS (17.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

FRESNO ST is 29-13 Over (14.7 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.

KENTUCKY is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) in the first half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

IOWA is 8-0 Under (8 Units) in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

LOUISIANA TECH is 10-2 Over (7.8 Units) after an ATS loss in the last 3 seasons.

Jim Harbaugh is 27-15 Over when the total is 49.5-56 (Coach of MICHIGAN)

COLORADO is 74-104 ATS (-40.4 Units) in the first half of the season since 1992.

TEMPLE is 27-11 Under (14.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

OHIO ST is 22-6 ATS (15.4 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.

MIAMI is 129-93 Under (26.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

MICHIGAN ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a home fav. of 10.5-14 since 1992.

BOISE ST is 28-13 ATS (13.7 Units) in road games as a dog since 1992.

TEXAS are 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in home games in September games in the last 3 seasons.

USC is 7-0 Over (7 Units) after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 48-29 Over (16.1 Units) as a dog since 1992.

S CAROLINA is 28-14 ATS (12.6 Units) in road games when the line is +/-3 since 1992.

Nick Saban is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) at home when the total is 49.5-52 (Coach of ALABAMA)

PENN ST is 61-30 Under (28 Units) in home games in the first half of the season since 1992.

Willie Fritz is 32-14 ATS (16.6 Units) as a favorite (Coach of TULANE)

COASTAL CAROLINA is 16-5 Over (10.5 Units) in September games since 1992.
 
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Completed Picks​

DateLeagueGameScorePickOutcome
Sep 1, 2023NCAAFLouisville
Georgia Tech		39
34		GT +7.0Win
 
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