Cnotes NL 2024-2025 Schedule, Best Bets, Opinons, News !

[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s Den: Quick thoughts on the NFL schedule

NFC
— Arizona
Arizona opens in Buffalo; Cardinals are 3-2 SU/5-0 ATS in last five road openers.
Cardinals have Week 7 Monday night home game, then Week 8 they’ve got a cross-country trip to play the Dolphins in Miami.
Arizona’s two games with Seattle are in Weeks 12/14.

— Atlanta
Kirk Cousins visits his old team, the Vikings, in Week 14 (December 8)
Falcons are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road openers, 5-2 ATS in last seven home openers.
Four of their first five games are at home (3 in row at home, weeks 3-5)

— Carolina
Rookie coach Caneles faces Tampa Bay, his old team, in Weeks 13/17.
Panthers lost four of last five home openers SU (1-3-1 ATS)
Carolina visits Denver in Week 8; Panthers’ DC Ejiro Evero was Denver’s DC two years ago.

— Chicago
Bears open their season at home vs Tennessee; since 2003, QB’s drafted first in a draft are 0-14-1 SU/1-14 ATS in their first start.
Weeks 13-15, Chicago has three straight road games (Lions-49ers-Vikings)
Last 20 years, under is 15-5 in Bears’ road openers. Last seven years, under is 6-1 in Chicago’s home openers.

— Dallas
Three of their first four road games (Giants-Steelers-49ers) are night games.
Over is 4-1 in their last five home openers.
Washington coach Dan Quinn was Dallas’ DC the last three years; Cowboy-Commander games are in Weeks 12/18.

— Detroit
Detroit doesn’t play a game outdoors until Week 9 at Green Bay.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.
Lions lost NFC title game 34-31 to San Francisco LY, blowing a 24-7 third quarter lead; they visit the 49ers on Monday night in Week 17.

— Green Bay
Packers open season against the Eagles in Brazil; Green Bay hasn’t started a season at Lambeau since 2018, but they’ve also won their last 11 home openers (8-3 ATS)
Over is 8-3 in their last 11 road openers.
Play consecutive Thursday games in Weeks 13-14: they host Miami on Thanksgiving night, then visit Detroit the next Thursday.

— LA Rams
Rams lost in playoffs at Detroit LY; they open this year on Sunday night, also at Detroit, which will revive the Stafford-Goff trade drama.
Rams are in Chicago in Week 4; their next road game isn’t until Week 9, at Seattle.
Under Sean McVay, Rams are 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS in road openers.

— Minnesota
Weeks 10-12, Vikings have 3 straight road games (Jaguars-Titans-Bears)
Under is 9-1 in Minnesota’s last ten home openers.
Vikings are 0-6-1 SU/0-7 ATS in their last seven road openers.

— NJ Giants
Last 12 years, Giants are 1-11 ATS in their home opener.
Both their games with Dallas are on Thursdays, including a Thanksgiving game.
Eagles’ new RB Saquon Barkley plays against his old team in Weeks 7/18.

— New Orleans
Visit Giants/Packers in December, two cold-weather games for a dome team.
Last nine years, Saints are 3-6 SU/1-8 ATS in home openers.
Dennis Allen/Derek Carr’s old team (Raiders) visit New Orleans in Week 17.

— Philadelphia
Open season against the Packers in Brazil; in Week 3, they go to Tampa, Week 4, they go to New Orleans, then they have an early bye in Week 5.
Last 15 years, Eagles are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home openers.
New OC Kellen Moore got run out of Dallas couple years ago; Eagles’ games with the Cowboys are in Weeks 10/17.

— San Francisco
Over last 21 years, teams that lost Super Bowl are 5-16 ATS in Week 1 the next year; 49ers host the Jets in Week 1.
Under is 8-2 in their last ten home openers.
Weeks 12-13, they visit Packers/Bills, two cold weather games; the game in Buffalo is at night.

— Seattle
Seahawks won four of their last five road openers.
Week 17 Thursday night road game is long travel/short week, plus a cold weather game.
Their two games with the Cardinals are in Weeks 12/14.

— Washington
Commanders play three of first four games on the road.
Washington is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home openers.
Kliff Kingsbury is the new OC; Washington visits his old team (Arizona) in Week 4.

AFC
— Baltimore
Ravens visit Arrowhead in Week 1; they lost AFC title game at home to the Chiefs last year.
Harbaugh brothers face each other in Week 12, on a Monday night at SoFi.
Baltimore won/covered seven of last eight Week 1 games.

— Buffalo
Bills visit old friend, WR Stefon Diggs, in Week 5 at Houston.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
Bills’ games with Dolphins are early in season; they visit Miami on a Thursday nite in Week 2; Dolphins come to Buffalo in Week 9.

— Cincinnati
Bengals’ games with Baltimore are fairly early (weeks 5/10); their games with Pittsburgh are later on (weeks 13/18)
Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home openers.
Bengals have five night games, three of them on the road.

— Cleveland
Four of their first six games are against NFC East opponents.
Since 2010, Browns are 5-1 ATS as an underdog in their home opener.
Browns visit Philadelphia in Week 6; Cleveland DC Schwartz was DC of the Eagles from 2016-20.

— Denver
Sean Payton’s Broncos visit Payton’s old team in New Orleans in Week 7.
Week 4, Broncos visit the Jets; will Zach Wilson be playing QB against his old team? At what point does rookie QB Bo Nix get the nod?
Denver’s last five home openers stayed under the total.

— Houston
They don’t play an outdoor game until Week 6 at New England.
Under is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.
It is conceivable that their first three games could be against very young QB’s:
Colts- Richardson, Bears- Williams, Vikings- McCarthy

— Indianapolis
Three of their first four games are at home.
Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine road openers.
Their two games with Houston are before Halloween (weeks 1/8).

— Jacksonville
Jaguars visit Philadelphia in Week 9; Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl coaching the Eagles.
Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in last seven road openers, last four of which went over the total.
Jaguars are playing Bears/Patriots in England in Weeks 6-7; the games are in different stadiums.

— Kansas City
Over last 21 years, Super Bowl champs are 11-7-3 ATS in Week 1 the next year, although they’re 0-3 ATS the last three years.
Last 7 years, Chiefs are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in road openers.
Chiefs have cold weather games in Cleveland (Week 15), Pittsburgh (Week 17), Denver (Week 18).

— Las Vegas
Two of their first seven games are on road at SoFi: Week 1 @ Chargers, Week 7 @ Rams.
Raiders are 7-2 ATS in last nine road openers.
Weeks 11-14, Raiders have three games in four weeks east of the Mississippi, visiting Miami, Chiefs and Tampa Bay.

— LA Chargers
Host the Raiders in Week 1; the rematch is in the season finale at Las Vegas.
Chargers are 8-3-1 ATS in last dozen road openers.
Chargers have an early (Week 5) bye, which isn’t ideal.

— Miami
Thanksgiving night in Green Bay should be fun, then they finish the season with a couple more cold weather games in Cleveland, New Jersey (Jets) in Weeks 17-18.
Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in last eight road openers.
Play three of first four games at home, with two of the home games at night.

— New England
Three of their first four games are on the road.
Games with Buffalo are very late, Weeks 16/18.
Their over/under win total is 4.5 wins, tied with Carolina for lowest in league.

— NJ Jets
First seven weeks, they have four night games, and a morning game from England.
Jets are 1-5 SU/ATS in last six home openers.
TV people like Aaron Rodgers; Jets have six night games scheduled, which is a lot for a team that hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2010.

— Pittsburgh
Weeks 12-16, they play 4 road games in 5 weeks; 3 of the 4 games are divisional games.
Russell Wilson visits his old team/coach in Denver in Week 2.
Visit the Ravens in Week 16 on a Saturday, host Chiefs on Christmas four days later.

— Tennessee
Titans host Cincinnati in Week 15; Tennessee coach Callahan was the Bengals’ OC the last five years (head coach Zac Taylor is really the OC).
Titans are 3-9 ATS in last 12 home openers.
Play only one divisional game in first 11 weeks of the season; 5 of their last 7 games are against AFC South rivals.

— ESPN’s schedule release show was so much better than NFL Network’s; memo to Rich Eisen: no one gives a BLEEP!!! where you went to college. Jim Harbaugh coaches the Chargers now; talk about the Chargers, not his last job.

— Christmas is on a Wednesday this year; despite that, there will be two NFL games on Christmas, with Chiefs @ Pittsburgh and Ravens @ Houston- those games are on Netflix.

— Lowest win totals:
Carolina, New England both have 4.5 win totals
1991 was last time New England’s win total was that low.

— Week 1 thoughts:
Steelers (Russell Wilson) @ Falcons (Kirk Cousins)— battle of veteran QB’s who changed teams.
Jets @ 49ers- Hopefully Aaron Rodgers will last more than four plays this year, but he is on Monday Night Football in Week 1 for second year in a row.
Rams @ Lions- Rematch of a playoff game from last year; the two QB’s were obviously traded for each other, a trade that has helped both teams.
When do the rookie QB’s start?
Packers vs Eagles, in Brazil- Two teams are playing in a soccer stadium where the home team’s arch-rival wears green uniforms. Because of that, it is an unwritten rule that you never wear green in that stadium. Whoops.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s Den: NFL trends, and some other stuff…….​

— Baltimore Ravens
Last three years, they’re 8-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Ravens are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games where spread was 3 or fewer points.

— Buffalo Bills
Last four years, Buffalo is 49-18 in regular season, 4-4 in playoffs.
Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs Baltimore.

— Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals are 23-5-2 ATS in their last 30 non-divisional games.
Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six visits to Cleveland.

— Cleveland Browns
12 of their 17 games this year are against teams that had a winning record LY.
Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games vs Pittsburgh.
Browns somehow went 11-7 last year, despite starting five different QB’s.

— Denver Broncos
Last three years, Broncos are 7-13 ATS as a home favorite.
Denver is 0-8 ATS in last eight road games against the Raiders.

— Houston Texans
Houston was 7-4 ATS as an underdog last year, with a rookie QB/rookie HC.
Last three years, Texans are 12-6 ATS in divisional games.

— Indianapolis Colts
Last 14 years, divisional home underdogs are 24-7 ATS in Week 1 games.
Last four years, Colts are 8-16 ATS in divisional games.

— Jacksonville Jaguars
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 10-6 ATS as an underdog.
Jacksonville is 2-7 ATS in its last nine visits to Tennessee.

— Movie of the Day: True Believer (1989)— A former civil liberties attorney now reduced to defending drug dealers becomes involved in an eight-year-old murder case- he is convinced the person convicted of the crime is innocent.
James Woods is the lawyer, Robert Downey Jr is his clerk, Margaret Colin does investigations for him. Very good movie.

— Kansas City Chiefs
In their last 27 games, Kansas City is 17-9-1 against the spread.
Last four years, Chiefs are 8-0 ATS as a road underdog.

— Las Vegas Raiders
Last two years, Silver and Back is 9-3 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Minshew is 2-13 ATS in his last 15 games as an underdog.

— Los Angeles Chargers
Jim Harbaugh was 49-27-1 as coach of the 49ers, from 2011-14 (5-3 in playoffs)
Since 2020, Chargers are 10-14-1 ATS as a home favorite.

— Miami Dolphins
In their last three games LY, Miami was outscored 52-6 in second half.
Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000 (0-6 last six)

— New England Patriots
Are playing toughest schedule in NFL this year; 3 of their first 4 games are on road.
Last two years, New England was 4-11-1 ATS at home.

— New Jersey Jets
Jets have six primetime games in first 11 weeks this season.
Robert Saleh is 18-33 SU/20-30-1 ATS as coach of the Jets.

— Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers visits Denver in Week 2; Broncos are paying 87% of Russell Wilson’s salary this year.
Last four years, Pittsburgh is 16-9 ATS in divisional games.

— Tennessee Titans
Mike Vrabel was 56-48 as Titans’ coach, but went 7-10/6-11 last two years.
Last four years, Tennessee is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday’s Den: NFL trends……..​

— Arizona Cardinals
Last three years, Arizona is 5-9 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, Cardinals are 8-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Arizona wasn’t favored in any games LY; they went 7-10 SU.

— Atlanta Falcons
Falcons have a new coach (Raheem Morris), new QB (Kirk Cousins) this year.
Last four years, Atlanta is 5-13 ATS as a home favorite.
Under is 16-9 in their last 25 home games.

— Baltimore Ravens
Ravens are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as an underdog.
Baltimore is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 road games.
Lamar Jackson is 58-19 in regular season, 2-4 in playoffs (1-3 at home).

— Buffalo Bills
Bobby Babich is the Bills’ new DC: he’s been with Buffalo since 2017.
Last two years, under is 21-12 in Buffalo games.
Bills were 9-0 LY in games decided by 6+ points, 6-4 in games decided by 5 or less points.

— Carolina Panthers
Since 2021, Carolina is 2-9 ATS as a favorite (0-0 as favorite LY)
Panthers are 8-14 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog.
Carolina was 2-15 last year, 2-6 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.

— Chicago Bears
Chicago is 14-25 ATS in its last 39 games as an underdog.
Bears were 7-10 SU last year, 2-6 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Bears haven’t had a winning season since 2018, when they were 12-4 under Matt Nagy.

— Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.
Cincinnati is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 home games.
Bengals had a +10 turnover ratio LY, but were 9-8; Joe Burrow started only 10 games (5-5)

— Cleveland Browns
Browns were 11-6 LY, 6-2 in games decided by 8 or less points.
Browns started five different QB’s last year (Watson was 5-1 as starter)
Over was 8-0 in Cleveland’s road games last year.

— Famous birthdays, July 28th:
Bill Bradley, 81
Vida Blue, 75
Doug Collins, 73
Clint Longley, 72
Carmelo Martinez, 64
Elizabeth Berkley, 52
Manu Ginóbili, 47
DeMeco Ryans, 40
Walker Buehler, 30

— Dallas Cowboys
Last three years, Dallas is 36-15 in regular season, 1-3 in playoffs.
Mike Zimmer is Cowboys’ new defensive coordinator, which should help.
Dallas is #3 in NFL in salaries spent on offense, #28 on defense.

— Denver Broncos
Denver won Super Bowl in 2015 season; since then, they’re 52-79 (0-0 in playoffs).
Broncos are #5 in NFL on $$$ spent on offense, #27 on defense.
:last two years, Denver is 4-12 ATS as a favorite.

— Detroit Lions
Lions’ coach Campbell is 22-9-1 ATS as an underdog.
Over is 12-5 in Detroit’s last 17 home games.
Jared Goff is 70-54-1 as an NFL starter, 4-4 in playoff games.

— Green Bay Packers
Green Bay was 9-8 last year, but they started season 2-5.
Packers played lot of close games; they were 6-5 in one-score games.
Last two years, Green Bay is 6-10 ATS as a favorite, 11-7 as an underdog.

— Houston Texans
Texans went 10-7 last year, after going 11-38-1 the previous three years.
Houston was 7-3 LY in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Last two years, Texans are 9-4 ATS as a road underdog.

— Indianapolis Colts
Colts were 7-0 LY if they won the turnover battle, 2-8 when they didn’t.
Rookie QB Richardson only started four games (2-2); they let Gardner Minshew walk.
Joe Flacco (4-1 as starter with Browns LY) is the Colts’ new backup QB.

— Jacksonville Jaguars
Doug Pederson is 65-56-1 as an NFL head coach, with a Super Bowl win.
Last 2 years, Jaguars were 9-8/9-8, their first consecutive winning years since 2004-05.
Jaguars are 6-11 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog..

— Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City was 11-6 last year, despite a minus-11 turnover ratio.
Under is 13-3 in their last sixteen home games.
Chiefs are #4 in NFL in salaries spent on offense, #31 on defense.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s Den: NFL trends for the first day of August…….

— Las Vegas Raiders
Raiders made the playoffs once in the last seven years.
Last two years, Las Vegas is 11-5 ATS at home.
Last four years, Raiders are 1-10 ATS as a road favorite.

— Los Angeles Chargers
Last year, Bolts were 5-12, 0-7 in games decided by 3 or fewer points.
Chargers are #30 in salaries spent on offense, #8 on defense.
New OC Roman was Ravens’ OC; Chargers-Ravens meet November 25.
Jim Harbaugh was 49-22-1 as 49ers’ coach, 5-3 in playoffs.

— Los Angeles Rams
Hall of Famer DT Aaron Donald retired; DC Morris is new head coach in Atlanta.
Rams are #1 in salaries spent on offense, #32 on defense.
Last three years, Rams are 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.

— Miami Dolphins
Last four years, Dolphins are 15-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Miami hasn’t won a playoff game (0-6) since 2000.
McDaniel is 20-14 as Dolphins’ HC, 0-2 in playoffs (34-31/26-7).

— Minnesota Vikings
In 2022, Vikings were 11-1 in games decided by 8 or less points; last year? 6-8.
Minnesota was minus-12 in turnovers LY; now Kirk Cousins is in Atlanta.
Last four years, Vikings are 7-16 ATS as a home favorite.

— New England Patriots
Last two years, NE was 12-22, now Bill Belichick is a TV analyst. Go figure.
New coach, new QB, new GM; Patriots are #28 in $$$ spent on offense.
Patriots were minus-11 in turnovers LY, 4-8 in one-score games.

— New Jersey Jets
Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010.
Aaron Rodgers played 4 plays LY, threw one (incomplete) pass, tore his Achilles.
Jets committed 31 more penalties than their opponents last year.

— New Jersey Giants
Giants have had one winning season the last seven years.
Giants were 4-4 SU at home LY; they were underdog in all eight games.
Giants were 6-11 LY, even though they were +12 in turnovers.

— Famous birthdays, August 1st:
Kiki Vandeweghe, 66
Greg Bell, 62
Gregg Jefferies, 57
Stacey Augmon, 56
Edgerrin James, 46
Adam Jones, 39
Madison Bumgarner, 35
Ezequiel Tovar, 23

— New Orleans Saints
Last three years, Saints are 25-26, missing playoffs all three years.
New Orleans was 3-6 last year in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Not a good sign when you’re +11 in turnovers and still miss playoffs.

— Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles started 10-1 LY, lost six of last seven games, canned both coordinators.
Philly was 8-3 in games decided by 8 or less points; they were minus-10 in turnovers.
Last three years, Eagles are 12-6 ATS as a home favorite.

— Pittsburgh Steelers
Last six years, Steelers made playoffs three times (0-3 in playoffs)
Former Falcons’ HC Arthur Smith is Pittsburgh’s new OC.
Steelers visit Atlanta in Week 1.
Steelers are #32 in salaries spent on offense, #1 on defense.

— San Francisco 49ers
49ers were 12-5 LY, 1-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Last 3 years, 49ers went 35-16, lost two NFC title games and a Super Bowl.
Last four years, San Francisco is 11-5 ATS as an underdog.

— Seattle Seahawks
Pete Carroll was 147-98-1 as Seattle’s coach; why exactly is he gone?
Seahawks were 9-8 LY, 6-4 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Last three years, Seattle is 8-15 ATS as a favorite.

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LY, Bucs were 1-5 vs teams that made playoffs, 8-3 vs teams that missed playoffs.
Tampa Bay went 9-8 last year, with a +8 turnover ratio.
Last two years, Buccaneers are 7-12 ATS as a favorite.

— Tennessee Titans
Titans went 7-10/6-11 last two years, canned Mike Vrabel (56-48 as Titans’ coach)
Lot of close games LY; Tennessee was 5-7 in games decided by 8 or less points.
Tennessee was minus-19 in sacks LY, giving up 64 sacks in 17 games.

— Washington Commanders
Washington hasn’t won a playoff game since 2005 (0-5 last five)
Former Cardinals’ HC Kingsbury is Washington’s new OC.
Commanders visit Arizona in Week 4.
New owner, new GM, new coach, new QB.
New coach Quinn was Atlanta’s HC; Washington-Atlanta play in Week 17.

 

[Senor Capper]

Best to you this season. 👍

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s Den: Early notes for Week 1 NFL games……..​

Thursday’s game
Ravens @ Chiefs
Last 8 years, Baltimore is 7-1 SU/ATS in Week 1
Since 2008, Ravens are 11-5 ATS in their road opener.
Last 7 years, Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in Week 1.
Last 3 years, Kansas City is 0-3 ATS in its home opener.
Chiefs won five of last six meetings.
Chiefs won 17-10 in Baltimore, in LY’s playoffs.
Ravens are 3-2 in Arrowhead, losing last two visits.

Friday’s game (@ San Paulo, Brazil)
Packers vs Eagles
Last 6 years, Packers are 2-4 ATS in Week 1.
Green Bay hasn’t opened at home since 2018.
Last 8 years, Eagles are 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS in Week 1.
Last 5 years, over is 3-1-1 in their season opener.
Teams split their last six series games.
Eagles won last meeting 40-33, two years ago.

Sunday’s games
Steelers @ Falcons
Steelers OC Smith was Atlanta’s head coach the last three years (21-30 W-L)
Pittsburgh won/covered its last four road openers.
Steelers’ last seven road opener stayed under the total.
Last 7 years, Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their home opener.
This is fifth year in a row Atlanta has opened season at home.
Pittsburgh won last four series games.
Falcons’ last series win was 41-38 in 2006, in OT.
Steelers are 8-2 SU in Atlanta.

Cardinals @ Bills
Last 5 years, Arizona is 3-2 SU/5-0 ATS in Week 1.
Under is 5-1 in their last six road openers.
Last 5 years, Buffalo is 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in its home opener.
Last 8 years, Bills are only 4-4 SU in their season opener.
Under is 4-1 in their last five season openers.
Bills won six of last eight meetings.
Cardinals lost four of five visits to Buffalo.
Cardinals’ only win here was in first visit, in 1971.

Titans @ Bears
Last 7 years, underdog is 7-0 ATS in Titans’ Week 1 games.
Last 11 years, Tennessee is 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS in its road opener.
Titans’ last five season openers stayed under the total.
Since 2003, QB’s taken with #1 pick in draft are 0-14-1 SU/1-14 ATS in their first start.
Last 10 years, Bears are 2-8 SU/4-6 ATS in Week 1 games.
Last 10 years, Chicago is 0-3 ATS as a Week 1 favorite.
Tennessee won three of last four meetings.
Titans won four of six visits to Chicago.

Patriots @ Bengals
Last 3 years, New England is 0-3 SU/ATS in Week 1.
Last 9 years, Patriots are 6-3 ATS in road openers.
Last 8 years, Bengals are 2-6 SU/ATS in home openers.
Since 2016, Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS as a favorite in a home opener.
New England won seven of last nine series games.
Patriots won four of last six visits to Cincinnati.

Texans @ Colts
Last 7 years, Texans are 5-2 ATS in road openers.
Under is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.
Last 10 years, Colts are 0-9-1 SU/1-8-1 ATS in Week 1.
Since 2011, Colts are 2-5 ATS as a favorite in home openers.
Houston is 2-1-1 in last four meetings.
Texans won 32-21/23-19 in last two visits to Indy.

Jaguars @ Dolphins
Last 7 years, Jaguars are 3-4 SU/5-2 ATS in road openers.
Jacksonville’s last four road openers went over the total.
Since 2013, Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in Week 1 games.
Miami is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 home openers.
Over is 12-3 in their last fifteen home openers.
Jacksonville won three of last four series games.
Jaguars won two of three visits to Miami.

Famous birthdays, August 10:
Rocky Colavito, 91
Don Buse, 74
Rosanna Arquette, 65
Billy Ray Smith, 63
John Starks, 59
Angie Harmon, 52
Spergon Wynn, 46
Dalvin Cook, 29
Ja Morant, 25

Panthers @ New Orleans
Last 5 years, Carolina is 1-4 SU/ATS in Week 1 games.
Since 2009, Panthers are 5-10 ATS in road openers.
Last 10 years, Saints are 4-6 SU/1-9 ATS in Week 1 games.
Last 9 years, New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in home openers.
Saints are 7-3 in last ten series games.
Panthers lost seven of last nine visits to New Orleans.

Vikings @ Giants
Last 7 years, Minnesota is 0-6-1 SU/0-7 ATS in road openers.
This is only 2nd time in last 8 years, Vikings are opening on road.
Under is 13-7 in their last 20 road openers.
Last 13 years, Giants started season 0-1 eleven times.
Since 2012, Giants are 2-10 SU/1-11 ATS in home openers.
Giants’ last ten home openers stayed under the total.
Minnesota won four of last five series games.
Giants won last meeting, 31-24, in ’22 playoffs.
This is Vikings’ first visit to New Jersey since 2019.

Raiders @ Chargers
Raiders won their season opener four of last five years.
Since 2007, Raiders are 12-4-1 ATS in road openers.
Under is 5-2 in their last seven road openers.
Chargers also won their season opener four of last five years.
Last 7 years, Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their home opener.
Home team won last six series games.
Raiders won last meeting 63-21 last year.
Raiders lost last three visits to SoFi, by 14-5-7 points.

Broncos @ Seahawks
Last 7 years, Denver is 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS in road openers.
Under is 4-2 in their last six road openers.
Since 2009, Seattle is 13-2 SU/10-5 ATS in home openers (3-5 ATS last 8).
Under is 10-3 in their last 13 home openers.
Seahawks won three of last four meetings.
Broncos lost last two visits to Seattle, 26-20/17-16.

Cowboys @ Browns
Last ten years, Dallas is 4-6 SU in Week 1 games.
Cowboys covered four of their last five road openers.
Cleveland won last 2 season openers (1-21-1 from 1999-2021)
Over is 4-1 in Browns’ last four home openers.
Dallas won four of five series games.
Browns won last meeting, 49-38 in 2020.
Cowboys won their last three visits to Cleveland.

Commanders @ Buccaneers
Last 5 years, Washington allowed 30+ points in road openers (1-4 SU/2-3 ATS)
Over is 4-1 in those five road openers.
Last four years, Tampa Bay is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in Week 1 games.
Over is 3-1 in their last four home openers.
Washington won three of last four series games.
Commanders won last two visits to Tampa; their last loss here was in 2007.

Rams @ Lions
Under McVay, Rams are 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS in road openers.
Over is 4-1 in their last five road openers.
Last 9 years, Detroit is 2-7 SU/4-5 ATS in home openers.
Over is 6-1 in their last seven home openers.
Last six years, Lions are 1-4-1 SU in Week 1 games.
Detroit beat LA 24-23 in LY’s playoffs.
Rams are 3-2 in last five series games.
Rams lost four of last five visits to Detroit.
Rams QB Stafford played for Detroit from 2009-20.
Lions QB Goff played for Rams from 2017-20.

Monday’s game
Jets @ 49ers
Last 8 years, Jets are 2-6 SU/3-4-1 ATS in Week 1 games.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
Last 7 years, 49ers are 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in Week 1 games.
Under is 8-2 in their last ten home openers.
49ers are 11-3 in series games.
Jets are 2-4 in road meetings, winning last one 23-17 in OT in last one, in 2016.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s Den: NFC trends to ponder……..​

— Arizona
Last nine years, Cardinals are 7-19-1 ATS in NFC West home games.
Last eight years, Arizona is 5-13 as a favorite of 3 or fewer points.
Arizona opens in Buffalo; Cardinals are 3-2 SU/5-0 ATS in last five road openers.
Cardinals have Week 7 Monday night home game, then Week 8 they’ve got a cross-country trip to play the Dolphins in Miami.

Arizona’s two games with Seattle are in Weeks 12/14.
— Atlanta
Kirk Cousins visits his old team, the Vikings, in Week 14 (December 8).
Last four years, Falcons are 4-16-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last nine years, Atlanta is 27-42-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Falcons are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road openers, 5-2 ATS in last seven home openers.
Four of their first five games are at home (3 in row at home, weeks 3-5)

— Carolina
Rookie coach Caneles faces Tampa Bay, his old team, in Weeks 13/17.
Since 2016, Panthers are 1-8 ATS as a home favorite vs NFC South rivals.
Last three years, under is 16-8 in Carolina home games.
Panthers lost four of last five home openers SU (1-3-1 ATS)
Carolina visits Denver in Week 8; Panthers’ DC Ejiro Evero was Denver’s DC two years ago.

— Chicago
Bears open their season at home vs Tennessee; since 2003, QB’s drafted first in a draft are 0-14-1 SU/1-14 ATS in their first start.
Since 2018, Chicago is 1-7 ATS as a home underdog vs NFC North rivals.
Since 2015, Bears are 0-8 ATS as a double digit underdog.
Weeks 13-15, Chicago has three straight road games (Lions-49ers-Vikings)
Last 20 years, under is 15-5 in Bears’ road openers. Last seven years, under is 6-1 in Chicago’s home openers.

— Dallas
Last three years, Cowboys are +32 in turnovers (+14/+10/+8).
Last three years, Dallas is 11-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Three of their first four road games (Giants-Steelers-49ers) are night games.
Over is 4-1 in their last five home openers.
Washington coach Dan Quinn was Dallas’ DC the last three years; Cowboy-Commander games are in Weeks 12/18.

— Detroit
Detroit doesn’t play a game outdoors until Week 9 at Green Bay.
Under Campbell, Lions are 14-6 ATS as a favorite, 9-4 at home.
Last five years, over is 28-12-1 in Detroit home games.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.
Lions lost NFC title game 34-31 to San Francisco LY, blowing a 24-7 third quarter lead; they visit the 49ers on Monday night in Week 17.

— Green Bay
Packers open season against the Eagles in Brazil; Green Bay hasn’t started a season at Lambeau since 2018, but they’ve also won their last 11 home openers (8-3 ATS)
Last three years, Green Bay is 2-9-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Last five years, Packers are 10-3-1 ATS as a home favorite vs NFC North opponents.
Over is 8-3 in their last 11 road openers.
Play consecutive Thursday games in Weeks 13-14: they host Miami on Thanksgiving night, then visit Detroit the next Thursday.

Famous birthdays, August 16th:
Julie Newmar, 91
Lesley Ann Warren, 78
James Donaldson, 67
Angela Bassett, 66
Madonna Louise Ciccone, 66 (Madonna)
Timothy Hutton, 64
Steve Carell, 62
Yu Darvish, 38
Tyler Stephenson, 28

— LA Rams
Last three years, Rams are 7-2 ATS in NFC West road games.
Since 2018, over is 32-17 in Rams’ home games.
Rams lost in playoffs at Detroit LY; they open this year on Sunday night, also at Detroit, which will revive the Stafford-Goff trade drama.
Rams are in Chicago in Week 4; their next road game isn’t until Week 9, at Seattle.
Under Sean McVay, Rams are 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS in road openers.

— Minnesota
In 2022, Vikings were 11-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points (+2 in turnovers)
Last year, Vikings were 6-8 in games decided by 8 or fewer points (-12 in turnovers)
Weeks 10-12, Vikings have 3 straight road games (Jaguars-Titans-Bears)
Under is 9-1 in Minnesota’s last ten home openers.
Vikings are 0-6-1 SU/0-7 ATS in their last seven road openers.

— NJ Giants
Last 12 years, Giants are 1-11 ATS in their home opener.
Giants were 6-11 last year, despite a +12 turnover ratio.
Last six years, Giants are 13-5 ATS in NFC East road games.
Both their games with Dallas are on Thursdays, including a Thanksgiving game.
Eagles’ new RB Saquon Barkley plays against his old team in Weeks 7/18.

— New Orleans
Saints missed playoffs the last three years (9-8/7-10/9-8).
Last ten years, New Orleans is 26-12-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Visit Giants/Packers in December, two cold-weather games for a dome team.
Last nine years, Saints are 3-6 SU/1-8 ATS in home openers.
Dennis Allen/Derek Carr’s old team (Raiders) visit New Orleans in Week 17.

— Philadelphia
Open season against the Packers in Brazil; in Week 3, they go to Tampa, Week 4, they go to New Orleans, then they have an early bye in Week 5.
Eagles started last year 10-1, then lost six of their last seven games.
Last four years, Philly is 7-13-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Last 15 years, Eagles are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home openers.
New OC Kellen Moore got run out of Dallas couple years ago; Eagles’ games with the Cowboys are in Weeks 10/17.

— San Francisco
Over last 21 years, teams that lost Super Bowl are 5-16 ATS in Week 1 the next year; 49ers host the Jets in Week 1.
Last two years, San Francisco was +14/+12 in turnovers.
Last ten years, underdogs are 20-9-1 ATS in 49ers’ NFC West home games.
Under is 8-2 in their last ten home openers.
Weeks 12-13, they visit Packers/Bills, two cold weather games; the game in Buffalo is at night.

— Seattle
Last seven years, Seattle is 1-4 in playoff games, which is why they fired Pete Carroll.
Last ten years, underdogs are 21-7-1 ATS in their NFC West road games.
Seahawks won four of their last five road openers.
Week 17 Thursday night road game is long travel/short week, plus a cold weather game.
Their two games with the Cardinals are in Weeks 12/14.

— Tampa Bay
Last two years, Tampa Bay is 4-10-2 ATS coming off a loss.
Five of their eight road games this season are in domes.
Buccaneers made playoffs the last four years (6-3 in playoff games)
Last ten years, Bucs are 20-31-6 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last nine years, Tampa Bay is 11-15-1 ATS in NFC South home games.

— Washington
Dan Quinn was 46-44 SU in 5+ years coaching Atlanta, winning NFC in 2016.
Last ten years, Washington is 10-19-1 ATS in NFC East home games.
Commanders play three of first four games on the road.
Washington is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home openers.
Kliff Kingsbury is the new OC; Washington visits his old team (Arizona) in Week 4.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s Den: AFC trends………​

AFC
— Baltimore
Ravens visit Arrowhead in Week 1; they lost AFC title game at home to the Chiefs last year.
Last six years, over is 34-16 in Baltimore home games.
Since 2016, Ravens are 8-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Harbaugh brothers face each other in Week 12, on a Monday night at SoFi.
Baltimore won/covered seven of last eight Week 1 games.

— Buffalo
Last ten years, Buffalo is 26-15-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Last eight years, Bills are 21-12-1 ATS vs NFC teams.
Bills visit old friend, WR Stefon Diggs, in Week 5 at Houston.
Last five years, over is 58-24 in Buffalo games, but under is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
Bills’ games with Dolphins are early in season; they visit Miami on a Thursday nite in Week 2; Dolphins come to Buffalo in Week 9.

— Cincinnati
Last two years, Cincinnati is 9-3-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Bengals are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs NFC opponents,
Bengals’ games with Baltimore are fairly early (weeks 5/10); their games with Pittsburgh are later on (weeks 13/18)
Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home openers.
Bengals play a Thursday game in Week 10, have a bye in Week 12, so from November 8-30, they have only one game, Week 11 at the Chargers.
But in Week 14, Bengals have a Monday night game in Dallas, a short week game at Tennessee, then a Thursday home game, another short week game, against the Browns.

— Cleveland
Browns were 6-0 ATS as a home favorite LY; from 2020-22, they were 7-12-1
Last five years, Cleveland is 9-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Four of their first six games are against NFC East opponents.
Since 2010, Browns are 5-1 ATS as an underdog in their home opener.
Browns visit Philadelphia in Week 6; Cleveland DC Schwartz was DC of the Eagles from 2016-20.

— Denver
Sean Payton’s Broncos visit Payton’s old team in New Orleans in Week 7.
Since 2017, Denver is 9-20-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2017, under is 41-16 in Bronco road games.
Week 4, Broncos visit the Jets; will Zach Wilson be playing QB against his old team? At what point does rookie QB Bo Nix get the nod?

Denver’s last five home openers stayed under the total.
— Houston
They don’t play an outdoor game until Week 6 at New England.
Texans were 10-7 LY (+12 in turnovers) making playoffs for first time since 2019.
Since 2018, Houston is 6-14-3 ATS against NFC opponents.
Under is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.

Texans play in Kansas City in Week 16, then host the Ravens on Christmas Day, which is on a Wednesday this year.
— Indianapolis
Last nine years, Colts are 7-15-1 ATS in home games vs AFC South opponents.
QB Gardner Minshew started Indy’s last 12 games LY; they were 6-6, but Colts let him walk. Now Joe Flacco backs up young QB Richardson.
Three of their first four games are at home; four of their next five games are on road.
Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine road openers.
Their two games with Houston are before Halloween (weeks 1/8).

— Jacksonville
Jaguars visit Philadelphia in Week 9; Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl coaching the Eagles.
Jaguars were 9-8/9-8 the last two years; they were 15-50 the four years before Pederson came to Jacksonville.
Last ten years, Jaguars are 24-32-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in last seven road openers, last four of which went over the total.
Jaguars are playing Bears/Patriots in England in Weeks 6-7; the games are in different stadiums.

— Kansas City
Over last 21 seasons, Super Bowl champs are 11-7-3 ATS in Week 1 the next year, although they’re 0-3 ATS the last three years.
Last five years, over is 33-8 in Kansas City’s road games.
Last ten years, Kansas City is 20-10-1 ATS in games where spread was 3 or fewer points.
Last 7 years, Chiefs are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in road openers.
Chiefs have cold weather games in Cleveland (Week 15), Pittsburgh (Week 17), Denver (Week 18).

— Las Vegas
Last two years, Raiders are 9-3 ATS as a home favorite, 0-5 as a road favorite.
Last nine years, Raiders are 7-16 ATS on artificial turf.
Weeks 11-14, Raiders have three games in four weeks east of the Mississippi, visiting Miami, Chiefs and Tampa Bay.
Two of their first seven games are on road at SoFi: Week 1 @ Chargers, Week 7 @ Rams.
Raiders are 7-2 ATS in last nine road openers.

— LA Chargers
Jim Harbaugh was 49-22-1 in four years coaching the 49ers, 5-3 in playoffs, winning the NFC title in 2012, before losing Super Bowl to his brother’s team.
Chargers host John Harbaugh and the Ravens in a Week 12 Monday night game.
Host the Raiders in Week 1; the rematch is in the season finale at Las Vegas.
Chargers are 8-3-1 ATS in last dozen road openers.
Chargers have an early (Week 5) bye, which isn’t ideal.

— Miami
Dolphins made playoffs the last two years (lost 34-31/26-7) but they haven’t won a playoff game since 2000.
Since 2017, Miami is 19-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Thanksgiving night in Green Bay should be fun, then they finish the season with a couple more cold weather games in Cleveland, New Jersey (Jets) in Weeks 17-18.
Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in last eight road openers.
Play three of first four games at home, with two of the home games at night.

— New England
Patriots won Super Bowl after 2018 season; since then, they’re 41-42 in regular season, 0-2 in playoffs, and they just told Bill Belichick to take a hike. Go figure.
Last two years, New England is 1-8 ATS as a home underdog.
Three of their first four games are on the road.
Games with Buffalo are very late in season, Weeks 16/18.
Their over/under win total is 4.5 wins, tied with Carolina for lowest in league.

— NJ Jets
First seven weeks, they have four night games, and a morning game from England.
Since 2017, Jets are 4-15-1 ATS as a favorite.
Last four years, under is 24-11 in Jet home games.
Jets are 1-5 SU/ATS in last six home openers.
TV people like Aaron Rodgers; Jets have six night games scheduled, which is a lot for a team that hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2010.

— Pittsburgh
Last six years, Steelers are 57-40-2 in regular season games, 0-3 in playoffs.
Last ten years, Pittsburgh is 39-23-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Weeks 12-16, they play 4 road games in 5 weeks; 3 of the 4 games are divisional games.
Russell Wilson visits his old team/coach in Denver in Week 2. Broncos are paying Wilson $37.8M of his $39M salary this season.
Visit the Ravens in Week 16 on a Saturday, host Chiefs on Christmas four days later.

— Tennessee
Last two years, Tennessee went 6-11/7-10; they told coach Vrabel to take a hike (he was 41-24 the four years before that).
Last ten years, Titans are 28-39-4 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Titans host Cincinnati in Week 15; Tennessee coach Callahan was the Bengals’ OC the last five years (head coach Zac Taylor is really the OC).
Titans are 3-9 ATS in last 12 home openers.
Play only one divisional game in first 11 weeks of the season; 5 of their last 7 games are against AFC South rivals.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL preseason Week 2: Giants' Andru Phillips, Cowboys' Marshawn Kneeland and other rookies to watch​

Week 2 of the preseason continues Saturday​

[IMG alt=" Josh Edwards
"]https://sportshub.cbsistatic.com/i/r/2019/09/30/12b73926-4a51-417d-adb5-832430ab7ba0/thumbnail/80x80/8e2d63448ddbfef4a0db70adfe420682/josh-edwards-700.png[/IMG]

By Josh Edwards

Getty Images
The second week of the NFL preseason is upon us. These final two games leading up to the regular season can be a great opportunity for rookies to earn valuable playing time that will serve them well throughout their careers.
In an effort to not sound like my own parrot, I excluded rookies who have been the feature of previous stories in training camp. I wrote about Texans cornerback Kamari Lassiter, Texans tight end Cade Stover and Bears edge rusher Austin Booker ahead of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Game. Then, I wrote about Patriots wide receiver Javon Baker, Chiefs left tackle Kingsley Suamataia, Cowboys left tackle Tyler Guyton, Titans left tackle JC Latham, Steelers linebacker Payton Wilson and a handful of others in a preview of intriguing rookies during the preseason.
With that in mind, here is one rookie to monitor in each Week 2 preseason game:

Saturday, Aug. 17​

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (12 p.m. ET)​

Ravens OT Roger Rosengarten
Since the 2024 NFL Draft concluded, the assumption has been that Rosengarten would win the starting right tackle job. Although the coaching staff has not officially announced as much, it sounds as though that reality is drawing near. His next assignment will be stonewalling Atlanta's young rushers, like Zach Harrison and Arnold Ebiketie.

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET)​

Bengals DT Kris Jenkins Jr.
In the absence of veteran D.J. Reader, Cincinnati needs other players to emerge, such as Jenkins. The regular season has a way of testing depth along the defensive line and Jenkins will play a lead role at some point. For now, the team is trotting out B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins with the starters.

New York Giants at Houston Texans (1 p.m. ET)
Giants CB Andru Phillips
Phillips made a really nice play in the backfield during last week's preseason game. Although he may not be the biggest cornerback, the Kentucky product is not afraid to be physical. As returning players Deonte Banks, Tre Hawkins III, Cor'Dale Flott and others compete for the starting outside positions, Phillips has a strong claim to be the inside starter.

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (4 p.m. ET)​

Lions CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has coveted a group of physical cornerbacks that will allow him to play aggressively. Veteran Carlton Davis and fellow rookie Terrion Arnold will likely start the regular season, but Rakestraw was known for his physicality, almost overly so, coming out of Missouri. This week's contest against Kansas City could also produce a matchup against Chiefs first-round wide receiver selection Xavier Worthy.

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (4:25 p.m. ET)​

Browns WR Jamari Thrash
Coming out of Louisville, Thrash was regarded as a route technician and that was validated with his play in Week 1 of the preseason. Timing may not have always aligned with his quarterback but Thrash consistently created leverage in the route stem.

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (7 p.m. ET)
Seahawks OG Christian Haynes
Seattle entered the offseason with a need at offensive guard. The Seahawks drafted Haynes to compete with last year's fourth-round selection Anthony Bradford. Haynes appeared stoic in his preseason debut. He showed the power and balance necessary to succeed in the NFL. The next two games serve as opportunities to build off that performance. The Seahawks have an entirely new coaching staff so there is no internal bias for returning players.

Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts (7 p.m. ET)​

Cardinals S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
Taylor-Demerson does not lack energy on the football field. He has covered a lot of ground in his football playing career and that continued last week in his preseason debut. Taylor-Demerson may not be called into action any time soon with Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson ahead of him on the depth chart, but there are reasons to believe that he could fulfill a key role for the franchise in the future.

Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins (7 p.m. ET)​

Commanders CB Mike Sainristil
Sainristil is a savvy cornerback capable of controlling the middle of the field and giving new coach Dan Quinn accountability in the secondary. Washington's draft class will ultimately be defined by the success of quarterback Jayden Daniels but second-round defensive tackle selection Jer'Zhan Newton and Sainristil can bring stability to the defensive unit.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (7 p.m. ET)​

Bills OT Travis Clayton
The inclusion of several players on this list is confirmation bias from the pre-draft process, but Clayton is more of a personal interest. His past has primarily been spent playing rugby and boxing. He participated in the International Pathway Program and had been training at IMG Academy, but actual playing experience has escaped him. Clayton has tremendous athleticism, but will it translate to playing professional football? He has been dealing with a shoulder injury in training camp.

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (7 p.m. ET)​

Panthers LB Trevin Wallace
Wallace is a relatively young player who delivered splash plays throughout his collegiate career and even this week at joint practice against the Jets when he intercepted Aaron Rodgers. As Carolina looks to identify building blocks on defense, Wallace is a promising rookie who can potentially help give the offense additional series' this season and beyond.

Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers (7:05 p.m. ET)​

Chargers DT Justin Eboigbe
Coach Jim Harbaugh wants his team to be the most physical on any given Sunday. The battle begins in the trenches and the Chargers have lacked those players capable of being stingy at the point of attack. When flipping through scouting reports on Eboigbe, one would never find mention of lacking strength or physicality. The Rams have made over their offensive line in the past calendar year so Eboigbe should face worthy competition this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (7:30 p.m. ET)​

Buccaneers OG Elijah Klein
Tampa Bay finished dead last in yards before contact (0.89) last season, according to TruMedia. The unit lacked physicality upfront so they set forth this offseason to add players capable of giving them an edge and providing them with that necessary physicality. Klein profiled as an angry, physical lineman coming out of UTEP. He should find a role even if it does not immediately translate to playing time.

Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders (10 p.m. ET)​

Cowboys EDGE Marshawn Kneeland
Pass rusher Sam Williams has already been lost and Dallas is searching for depth to go along with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. The team's second-round pick, Kneeland is a viable candidate to fill the void left in Williams' absence. In his final season at Western Michigan, Kneeland recorded 4.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.

Sunday, Aug. 18​

Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (8 p.m. ET)​

Packers S Evan Williams
Williams has a diverse skill set that should allow him to see the field even if it does not translate to starting repetitions. He has reportedly been a standout in camp thus far and the hope is that he continues to build upon his promising start. Green Bay remade its safety room this offseason signing Xavier McKinney and drafting Javon Bullard and Williams.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (8 p.m. ET)​

49ers OG Dominick Puni
Puni was really impressive for San Francisco last week and, given what his competition showed last season, should be considered the favorite to start at right guard for the defending NFC champions this season. Despite playing left tackle for Kansas last season, Puni had spent time at left guard the prior year. His transition to the NFL thus far has looked smooth.

 

[Cnotes53]

Full 2024 NFL season win-loss record predictions for every team: Eagles, Steelers underachieve; Rams impress​

Will Brinson projects win-loss records for every NFL team for the 2024 season​

[IMG alt=" Will Brinson
"]https://sportshub.cbsistatic.com/i/r/2016/05/06/aea89ca8-3301-4d6d-9593-f4a90b9ddfcf/thumbnail/80x80/68acdcad7c2f34145aa8841d5acc0ff1/willbrinson.png[/IMG]

By Will Brinson

Aug 15, 2024 at 6:00 am ET•29 min read

Getty Images
The Brinson Model™ returns! After a reasonably triumphant year for my full-season win-loss projections, we're back for another season of trying to nail every single NFL team's record correctly.
Looking back on last season is a harsh reminder of how hard it is to actually predict exact NFL team records. After all, this is a game played with an inflated, oblong piece of big butt that loves to bounce around randomly and create total chaos over a relatively short sample size.
I hit just three teams (49ers, Seahawks, Titans) exactly, but had another 10 within one game of their exact win total, another five within two games and another eight within three games. My average differential was 2.25 while the mean differential for all of my picks was an even two games.
The biggest mistake I made was essentially flipping Carolina and the Bucs. Whoops! The Browns and Bengals QB situations and end results created an eight-game swing for me as well. I was much, much higher on the Texans than the market and still didn't give them enough credit. Same for the Rams. I was much lower than the market on the Chargers but somehow not low enough! On the other hand, my Patriots projection was humiliating in hindsight.

Arizona Cardinals​

DraftKings win total: 6.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected record: 7-10

The Cardinals seem to have somehow become a consensus fun/frisky team for 2024. Kyler Murray flashed some upside last year in this intriguing offense, and after floating in purgatory last offseason, the Cards firmly committed to their QB this offseason, doubling down and getting him Marvin Harrison Jr. as an elite WR to pair with Trey McBride. Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are suddenly nice little secondary weapons in this offense. Jonathan Gannon's intro presser experience gave a lot of people reasonable pause about the coaching in Arizona, but maybe he's just a Nick Sirriani clone but on defense, as the coaching was strong in Arizona last year. This is still a rebuilding project, especially in a really tough division, but it wouldn't shock me if the Cards were in the playoff hunt late, especially if the defense takes any kind of step forward.

Atlanta Falcons​

DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 10-7

It's hard not to be excited about the Falcons this year. Last year's team was a lot of frustration, with the top-10 offensive weapons on the roster largely underused. Now Zac Robinson comes to town along with pricey free agent Kirk Cousins, and you can hear the excitement when guys like Drake London and Bijan Robinson talk about this offense. Kyle Pitts should be in line for the season everyone's been waiting on as well. The only way this offense fails is a Cousins injury, and Atlanta drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall, giving it some insurance on that front. There's nothing wrong with questioning the defensive chops here, especially after passing on a first-round pass rusher for Penix, but I trust Raheem Morris to get the most out of this unit. He's been an excellent coordinator in his career, and there are some similarities to the Rams on this defensive roster.

Baltimore Ravens​

DraftKings win total: 10.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 12-5

There are lots of people projecting a lot of regression for the Ravens this year, in large part due to free agency attrition, as well as the departure of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. There's major, and viable, concern with the offensive line in front of Lamar Jackson as well. But I think Baltimore ends up being a fairly steady team that will "surprise" some people. Zach Orr takes over as defensive coordinator. He's highly thought of and should be able to minimize the drop-off from Macdonald. More concerning is the departure of guys like Patrick Queen and Geno Stone, particularly since those two left for division rivals in free agency. Offensively this team could take a leap forward off of Jackson's second MVP season. It's his second year in Todd Monken's system and it feels like his weapons could be improved. Zay Flowers is in his second year, the team is really high on Rashod Bateman, and the duel combo of Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely is pretty strong. The offensive linemen were all drafted in house, and the Ravens are excellent at drafting and developing, so I think it may be less of a problem than people think.

Buffalo Bills​

DraftKings win total: 10.5 (under -155)
Brinson projected record: 10-7

Josh Allen is my MVP pick this year, and part of that is him having a division-winning, toss-the-team-on-my-back season after the Bills traded Stefon Diggs this offseason. The narrative here is the Bills will crater and people seem to be rooting against them. I'm not totally sold on Joe Brady as an OC, but I think his play-calling fits with these weapons: he's going to feed James Cook and continue to run Allen in the red zone. The combo of Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir with the potential for a massive breakout from Dalton Kincaid gives this offense a lot more upside than people are giving it credit for. Sean McDermott's noted this might be the best OL of his tenure in Buffalo. I'm buying the dip. The Bills defensively have some pass rush concerns and are in the middle of changing over personnel, but I still trust McDermott to get the most out of this group. Von Miller needs to be a much bigger plus than last year.

Carolina Panthers​

DraftKings win total: 5.5 (over -115)
Brinson projected record: 6-11

What could go wrong??? After being high on Carolina last year and being SO wrong, I'm back to being a little more bullish on the Panthers once again. There's several underlying statistical reasons (a bad record in one-score games and their point differential last year) to believe they can win more games in 2024. But you can also point to coaching -- Dave Canales is an unknown, but the coaching staff is at least all on the same page now -- which is an upgrade for Carolina. It's going to run the heck out of the ball this season, which will accentuate the strength of the offensive linemen on this roster and minimize the exposure of Bryce Young to tons of pass rush pressures. Getting Diontae Johnson via trade and drafting Xavier Legette in the first round automatically means the Panthers have upgraded the skill guys. Losing Brian Burns is brutal for the defense, but there's enough talent on that side of the ball for Carolina to hang around in games and steal some wins.

Chicago Bears​

DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over -165)
Brinson projected record: 8-9

The annual hype surrounding the Bears is building to its normal outrageous levels, but -- insert Tobias Fünke meme here -- maybe this is actually the year when we should be buying in. Caleb Williams has massive upside as a rookie, and he landed in one of the better landing spots for a young quarterback, with the Bears adding Keenan Allen (trade) and Rome Odunze (draft) to D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. D'Andre Swift was a sneaky free agency addition who gives Williams another outlet option. The offensive line is probably the best Chicago's had in a few years. Can Matt Eberflus carry over the late-season defensive production into 2024? Once the Bears acquired Montez Sweat in a midseason trade, things really seemed to take off. If that's the case, I might be underselling them here. They definitely qualify as a sleeper playoff team in the NFC.

Cincinnati Bengals​

DraftKings win total: 10.5 (over -140)
Brinson projected record: 11-6

The bull case for the Bengals is pretty obvious: positive regression in terms of quarterback health. Joe Burrow's borderline "injury prone" at this point, but maybe that blonde wig he showed up to training camp with will ward off the evil injury spirits. Ja'Marr Chase isn't practicing because of a contract situation, but I expect him to be full go. Tee Higgins isn't happy about his tag, but he's going to play. Zack Moss and Chase Brown may be a sneaky massive upgrade for Cincy at running back. The loss of OC Brian Callahan is certainly a concern, but I think Zac Taylor -- who was calling plays anyway -- and Burrow at QB will be able to patch that problem fairly handily. Defensively the Bengals were dead last in yards per play allowed last season. I anticipate an improvement there, even with D.J. Reader out the door. Sheldon Rankins will help fill that void, and bringing back Geno Stone from a division rival should help the back end of this defense in a big way.

Cleveland Browns​

DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 7-10

I had the Browns on my list of seven teams who could miss the postseason in 2024 and, quite naturally, Browns fans are thrilled. Defensively, I'm a little concerned about Cleveland repeating its performance last year. Jim Schwartz is one of my fave defensive coordinators (can we please get him and Harbaugh 2.0?), but the Browns were very up and down in terms of their performance depending on home/road splits. That's a red flag. On the other side of the ball, their biggest loss may be OL coach Bill Callahan, who joined his son Brian in Tennessee. Mix in an unknown timeline for Nick Chubb, and I think you can make the case this top-tier rushing offense could fall off a cliff. D'Onta Foreman, their short-yardage back, suffered a scary injury in training camp, too. Things are getting thin at running back already. How can anyone possibly suggest Deshaun Watson will be good again? We haven't seen it in more than three years. Maybe a new Kevin Stefanski throw-heavy system, plus the addition of Jerry Jeudy, will help Watson get his performance level back up, but I think Stefanski would prefer having Baker Mayfield still on the team given his system. There's just a lot of unknown here and it revolves around Watson.

Dallas Cowboys​

DraftKings win total: 10.5 (under -180)
Brinson projected record: 11-6

The range of outcomes for the Cowboys this year is pretty wide, as you can tell by me having them on my "might miss the playoffs" list and simultaneously putting them down for 11 wins in The Brinson Model™️. I actually have them starting pretty slow out of the gate, going just .500 over their first six weeks before catching fire thanks to a fairly friendly schedule featuring lots of home games in the second half. If the offensive line doesn't fall apart, I trust Mike McCarthy to get the most out of Dak Prescott. The playoffs might be a problem, but he's won 12 games in three straight years. CeeDee Lamb is gonna play even if it's on a lame-duck deal. Brandin Cooks is a decent No. 2 option, Jake Ferguson is a semi-sneaky potential breakout candidate this year, and the running back room with Rico Dowdle may be better than anyone expects. My biggest concern is the defense with Dan Quinn gone, but Mike Zimmer has enough options on that side of the ball for a reclamation project.

Denver Broncos​

DraftKings win total: 5.5 (under -125)
Brinson projected record: 7-10

I found myself a little surprised to be so low on the Broncos this year considering my affinity for Sean Payton as a coach. It's mostly a byproduct of a really difficult division and the total unknown of the quarterback position in Denver. Bo Nix kind of HAS to play after being taken 12th overall this year, right? If he doesn't, it's a huge red flag. Javonte Williams is going to really surprise some folks, I think, and if they can block up front, he could have a massive year. The receiver group is a little concerning, and I'm not entirely sure how great the defense is going to be, either. But I also think it's easy to forget the Broncos actually won eight games last year and nearly got involved in the playoff hunt late. If they went 9-8 and Nix was a star because Payton is an incredible quarterback coach and offensive mind, I wouldn't be surprised at all.

Detroit Lions​

DraftKings win total: 10.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 11-6

Do the Lions have the best top-to-bottom roster in the NFL now? Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell have done an incredible job building out this Lions team to the point it would be shocking if the Lions didn't make the postseason this year. Jared Goff and this offense play three games all year long outdoors -- yes, three total games outdoors. This could be fireworks, especially if Jameson Williams makes the strides Campbell indicates he could. Jahmyr Gibbs is lining up in the slot a bunch during camp, meaning we could get he and David Montgomery on the field together a ton. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are studs. The biggest concern for the offensive output here would be the defense taking a big step forward, especially on the back end. Detroit's front seven looks strong, but the secondary gave up a ton of pass yards last year, causing Detroit to invest. That may be bad for fantasy but won't matter one lick for the Lions being a really great football team.

Green Bay Packers​

DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 10-7

Another team with a massive range of outcomes depending on what the Packers get from Jordan Love this year. As I've noted plenty of times, Love was a borderline starter for the first half of the season last year and a unanimous MVP level player the second half of the season. He's got piles of weapons this year and a brand new contract, so expectations should be high. The early-season schedule isn't "easy" and starting the season in Brazil is very unusual, but it wouldn't be shocking if the Pack got off to a hot start and kept it rolling for much of the season. I'm bullish on Love with all his different weapons, especially so if Christian Watson stays healthy this season. The defense should be upgraded in large part because of Jeff Hafley joining on as defensive coordinator.

Houston Texans​

DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -140)
Brinson projected record: 10-7

The sky is the limit for Houston, but the expectations could be a problem here. C.J. Stroud is the second favorite MVP candidate in the entire NFL. Adding Stefon Diggs to Tank Dell and Nico Collins is just fun and Joe Mixon could fit what this offense does well. It's hard to question the defense because of DeMeco Ryans' chops as a coach and because of his success everywhere he's been. They also added Danielle Hunter as a pass-rush option and Kamari Lassiter in the secondary, with both guys getting good buzz this offseason. If Lassiter is a stud and Derek Stingley Jr. keeps developing, that is one filthy combo. My biggest concerns are honestly just the hype and the division: the Texans may just be ready to deliver on the former, and even if they don't max out their potential, they could still take home the AFC South crown.

Indianapolis Colts​

DraftKings win total: 8.5 (under -125)
Brinson projected record: 8-9

Another team with a crazy level of variation and, naturally, it revolves around Anthony Richardson. If you told me AR played five games and the Colts struggled this season I'd buy it. If you told me AR won MVP this season and the Colts were a 12-win powerhouse, I'd buy that too. I don't want to peg Richardson as an injury-prone guy one year into his career, but he got banged up a lot and it happened early. Still, there's a lot to like here. Shane Steichen is a really good offensive coach, and it sounds like this team will want to play fast. Michael Pittman is signed and AD Mitchell is in the mix via the draft, along with Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and some fun tight end pieces. The offensive line needs to get back to where it was a few years ago and keep Richardson upright.

Jacksonville Jaguars​

DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over/under -110)
Brinson projected record: 9-8

The margins are going to be snug in a really tough AFC South. The Jaguars were the Texans this time last year, with Trevor Lawrence getting MVP hype and the Jags being considered a legit Super Bowl contender. They didn't even make the postseason after collapsing down the stretch, but Lawrence was a lot more hurt than people realized. If he's healthy this year, the offense should be substantially better, particularly with the addition of Gabe Davis in free agency and Brian Thomas Jr. as a first-round pick. Defensively, the Arik Armstead signing was massive in the moment but is maybe flying under the radar as we head into the season. Add in Darnell Savage and they have five former first-round picks on the defense. It's time for this unit to produce, and the addition of Ryan Nielsen as DC could be the jolt it needs.

Kansas City Chiefs​

DraftKings win total: 11.5 (over -115)
Brinson projected record: 12-5

The unfathomable finally happened in 2023: The Chiefs went under their win total for the first time since Andy Reid took over in Kansas City way back in 2013. And they promptly won the division and then won the Super Bowl. Naturally. Now KC is trying for a three-peat, and in order to bolster the offense, Reid and GM Brett Veach added Hollywood Brown in free agency and Xavier Worthy in the first round of the draft. Patrick Mahomes now has some actual vertical threats who will pair perfectly with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice eating up underneath. Losing L'Jarius Sneed on defense hurts for sure, but this unit has quietly been awesome the last few years and shouldn't drop off much. Steve Spagnuolo deserves a ton of credit for helping develop some excellent young picks, and Veach as well for finding it and retaining most of it. I could see the Chiefs not putting their foot on the gas all season to save up for the playoffs. Or maybe they just bash everyone on offense to let people know.

Las Vegas Raiders​

DraftKings win total: 6.5 (over -130)
Brinson projected record: 6-11

Tough team to figure out in Las Vegas. I think I may be selling the Raiders short because of their overall roster, but I also have major questions about the quarterback and the issues they're going to face in the division. Is Gardner Minshew really the answer in free agency? I love the Brock Bowers pick, but it also feels a bit redundant with Michael Mayer in the fold, even though there was a new regime in town. Antonio Pierce did an awesome job with this team down the stretch last year, but interim coaches don't often pan out in full-time roles. If the Raiders defense is as opportunistic as it was last year and the run game can be dominant, this team can easily outpace my projection and the Vegas win total. The schedule just has some really tough stretches as a result of playing in the AFC West.

Los Angeles Rams​

DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over -155)
Brinson projected record: 12-5

Would you say I'm bullish on the Rams this year??? I think Matthew Stafford is set to have an incredible year, maybe more efficient than volume-based, thanks to the offseason upgrades Los Angeles made on offense. L.A. beefed up the run game on the interior by adding Jonah Jackson and Kevin Dotson. Colby Parkinson is one of the sneakiest additions in free agency and gives the team some fun athleticism at tight end with Tyler Higbee coming back from injury. Puka Nacua's preseason injury is a concern, but Cooper Kupp should be completely healthy to start the year and DeMarcus Robinson sets up as a really underrated third receiver in 11 personnel. Blake Corum is a perfect compliment to Kyren Williams. I have massive expectations for this offense --especially when it'll need to score more points to make up for a slightly worse defense after losing Aaron Donald and Raheem Morris. I do love adding Jared Verse and Braden Fiske as a combo to replace the former.

Los Angeles Chargers​

DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected record: 9-8

The Justin Herbert plantar injury could throw this whole division, and certainly this team, into complete flux. If Herbert's healthy, I like the Chargers as a sneaky playoff team. Jim Harbaugh just wins, and he set this team up in his image early. Greg Roman's run game behind this offensive line -- chockfull of early draft picks -- should produce enough to let Herbert and Josh Palmer/Ladd McConkey move the chains when they need to. And the defense didn't lose anyone in the salary cap purge this offseason, meaning Harbs should be able to get the most out of what he inherited. The Harbaugh Bros don't miss much when it comes to bringing in coordinators, and we've already seen Jesse Minter succeed under Jim in Ann Arbor. Herbert's injury just needs to be watched as we get closer to the season because of how long it can linger.

Miami Dolphins​

DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 9-8

The Dolphins made it rain this offseason, paying both Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill to kick off training camp and Jaylen Waddle earlier in the offseason. They've locked in their core on offense for the next few years and this is absolutely a Super Bowl contender ... if a few things break right. The offensive line needs to come together quickly ahead of Tua, with this run game setting up the lethal pass game. The perpetually underrated Raheem Mostert, second-year explosive back De'Von Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright have them primed for big things if the line is cooking. Jonnu Smith was a sneaky YAC addition. The defense has big problems because of injury: Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are both going to be late coming back most likely and Christian Wilkins walked in free agency. The offense will need to carry things early in the season (as it did last year, not unfeasible!), but the Dolphins also need to figure out how to beat good teams and win when it is cold.

Minnesota Vikings​

DraftKings win total: 6.5 (over -160)
Brinson projected record: 7-10

Vegas is not bullish on the Vikings this year. It's understandable given the change at quarterback and even more understandable when the news broke this week that J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending torn meniscus during the preseason. That means Sam Darnold is starting Week 1 and likely playing the entire season. Going from Kirk Cousins to Darnold is a pretty massive dropoff, especially when you consider how sharp McCarthy looked in his first preseason action, especially when he didn't even have Justin Jefferson out there. There's still a lot on offense with JJ, Jordan Addison (suspension still lurking?) and some lower-tier wideouts plus T.J. Hockenson whenever he returns from injury, but it looks like they're gonna have to run the heck out of the ball with Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler to win. Minny almost seems a little snakebit right now on offense. Another year of Brian Flores defense could be beneficial, although I've got concerns about some of the swaps they made on that side of the ball. The bigger concern is the division -- if the Packers and Bears take the expected steps forward, it's going to be really tough for the Vikings.

New England Patriots​

DraftKings win total: 4.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected record: 5-12

For the first time in more than two decades, there's no Bill Belichick in New England. And while change might have been necessary for the Pats, it sure does throw this season into complete question. Drake Maye is a uber-talented but streaky rookie behind a questionable offensive line with nominal weapons ... and he might not even start to begin the season. Former NC State legend Jacoby Brissett is set to beat out another yet another UNC quarterback for a starting job, and his floor is better than that of Maye to start the season, but he's still dealing with the same issues. DeMario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne (who's on PUP) were joined by Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker in the draft, but the wideout group is still lacking. If Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson can actually spark the run game, there's maybe a little more upside here offensively, but it's hard to see the Pats being a top-half-of-the-league unit. Defensively there's a much better chance of success, but even with Jerod Mayo capably running things, we're still talking about a team that lost the best defensive coach in NFL history.

New Orleans Saints​

DraftKings win total: 7.5 (over -120)
Brinson projected record: 6-11

You can tell the pressure is turned up on Dennis Allen simply by listening to some of his harsh quotes on various players leading up to the season. Things will be amplified with offensive line concerns -- the unit that dominated in front of Drew Brees for the last few years has really fallen off, exacerbated by the preseason departure of Ryan Ramczyk. Taliese Fuaga needs to be a borderline star out of the gate at left tackle. And Klint Kubiak, replacing longtime OC Pete Carmichael, needs his offense to function well and quickly. There's enough there for it to happen: Derek Carr, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are a nice trio, and if Alvin Kamara can rebound to his previous form, this offense could be fun to watch. The defense should maintain a high level and could even take a step forward if Chase Young can live up to expectations. The Saints underperformed their expected win total last year and went 3-6 in one-score games, so I'm potentially too low on them here if the offense can become more dynamic.

New York Giants​

DraftKings win total: 6.5 (under -135)
Brinson projected record: 6-11

Man it is hard to be bearish on this team when you watch Malik Nabers training camp highlights. The first-round pick has been a non-stop highlight reel right up until he suffered a mild ankle sprain recently. Everything really comes down to Daniel Jones and the offensive line. If the protection holds up, maybe we get a healthy 2022 version of Danny Dimes and this team looks much better on offense. The departure of Saquon Barkley might be a good thing, because it should allow the offense to run a little more fluidly without trying to focus on one person. The addition of Brian Burns alongside Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux could make for a really nasty pass rush, one that could even make up for any shortcomings in the secondary.

New York Jets​

DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected record: 9-8

I included the Jets as a team that could possibly make the leap into the playoffs after missing last year, and the entire logic behind this can be summed up in two words: Aaron Rodgers. Unfortunately, the four-time MVP and future Hall of Famer isn't just a potentially great quarterback in 2024, but also a 40-year-old coming off an Achilles injury that cost him the entire 2023 season. Tyrod Taylor should keep the floor raised if Rodgers misses any time, because otherwise this is a pretty darn solid roster. The front office attacked the offensive line problem this offseason, adding Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses in free agency and Olu Fashanu in the draft. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are both viable OPOY candidates. The defense should be really good yet again, but it's worth noting the Jets finished just 12th in points allowed last year and really only have a single season of great defensive play. There's just a lot of variance here with Rodgers' health.

Philadelphia Eagles​

DraftKings win total: 10.5 (over -130)
Brinson projected record: 9-8

My projection is going against the Vegas implied success of the Eagles, and it's in large part because of what I expect to be a slow-ish start for Philly. I still see it as a likely playoff team, but it draws the Packers and three quarters of the NFC South to start before a Week 5 bye. They have a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, and even if he's an upgrade, there's some concerns after seeing the Chargers last year, plus the natural acclimation time. The loss of Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox -- the literal backbone of both the offense and defense, respectively -- is kind of being glossed over this offseason. Howie Roseman did an outstanding job replacing the two ahead of time by drafting Cam Jurgens and Jordan Davis, but there's a chance this team starts a little slow as they adjust to all the changes.

Pittsburgh Steelers​

DraftKings win total: 8.5 (under -160)
Brinson projected record: 6-11

The quarterback concerns are pretty big in Pittsburgh. The Steelers upgraded to Russell Wilson/Justin Fields, but Wilson hasn't even been on the field during much of training camp. That throws things into severe flux at the position. Fields could be a fantasy darling, but I don't know if his athletic style of quarterbacking will necessarily translate to a bunch of wins. The departure of Diontae Johnson means the Steelers are lacking on the wide receiver depth chart. George Pickens has unlimited upside with his skillset. After him, there was buzz about Van Jefferson as their WR2, although Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson have made some interesting noise in training camp. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are physical runners, and I tend to think an Arthur Smith offense is going to feature them heavily. I don't expect this to be an explosive unit. Defensively, if the Steelers are the top-five unit they can be, this might end up looking like a foolish projection. Fifteen-plus games of T.J. Watt is an absolute must because of how this defense drops off when he's out of the lineup.

San Francisco 49ers​

DraftKings win total: 11.5 (under -125)
Brinson projected record: 11-6

The Niners have one of the most complete rosters in all of football. They're coming off three straight years advancing to the NFC title game including a brutal overtime Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs last year. They are rightfully one of the top Super Bowl favorites. But there's some cause for concern with the recent offseason developments. Christian McCaffrey suffered a calf injury that shouldn't be a big deal but definitely has my antenna up. Brandon Aiyuk still might get traded or he might not! Trent Williams remains unhappy with his contract. There's just a lot swirling around the Niners, and this is a massive number for any team. Note the Vegas juice here, with the expectation the 49ers end up coming in under 12 wins. The schedule isn't particularly brutal, but there are enough pitfalls where I think 11-6 is firmly on the table, especially if the NFC West ends up being as good as we think it could be.

Seattle Seahawks​

DraftKings win total: 7.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 9-8

The Seahawks are a tough projection because of the wholesale changes occurring across the organization. The personnel is largely unchanged, but Mike MacDonald represents the Seahawks' first new coach in a long time and should bring with him an interesting new approach. Pete Carroll is a Hall of Famer, but MacDonald bringing in offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb could result in some splashy offensive production. Geno Smith (or even Sam Howell) have three exciting receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to utilize in the same way the three Washington rookies were used last year at the college level. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet provide big-play potential in the backfield and we might finally get a Noah Fant breakout. MacDonald's killed it on defense for years with the Ravens, so the expectations are high for that side of the ball as well. I'm a little higher on Seattle than Vegas and certainly see the Seahawks as a playoff sleeper this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers​

DraftKings win total: 7.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected record: 9-8

Everyone counted out the Bucs in a BAD way last year and Baker Mayfield and Co. jammed it in everyone's face. I'm extremely terrified of it happening again with this projection, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if Tampa won the division again. It could even win it at 9-8, so maybe I'm not that far off. Regardless, no one will run away with the NFC South. The bull case for he Bucs is pretty easy: adding Jalen McMillan will help the passing game, even more so if new OC Liam Coen moves Chris Godwin to the slot. Early returns for Graham Barton paint the picture of another first-round OL hit by GM Jason Lichte. The defense has several studs on it already (Vita Vea, Antoine Winfield Jr., etc) and some other high-caliber players who could emerge this year and make Tampa a contender again. Vegas obviously agrees with a heavily juiced over here.

Tennessee Titans​

DraftKings win total: 6.5 (under -135)
Brinson projected record: 6-11

Yet another total wild card with the full-blown changeover from a previous regime. For me, it was always going to be a hard sell on whoever replaced Mike Vrabel, but I'm high on Brian Callahan and what this team has in place for 2024. DeAndre Hopkins' injury is concerning but he should be back early in the regular season, plus the addition of Calvin Ridley gives them a little wiggle room. Callahan bringing his dad, Bill Callahan, is massive for the offensive line, not to mention the addition of JC Latham in the first round. Defensively this team is a total wild card, and if the defense isn't good we could see the offense throwing the ball a TON. I don't think the Titans will necessarily be "good" this year, but I think we'll see enough from Will Levis and the new coaching staff to the point everyone sort of thinks that even a six-win season could be considered a positive step forward.

Washington Commanders​

DraftKings win total: 6.5 (over -130)
Brinson projected record: 7-10

Another wholesale change when it comes to the regime in charge -- Dan Quinn is in and he brought Kliff Kingsbury with him as well as a new quarterback in Jayden Daniels, whom the Commanders drafted second overall following his Heisman season. The offensive line is a major concern, but maybe Daniels' mobility can make up for it? There are enough weapons here to maaaaaybe make a bull case for competing in the NFC East, but Terry McLaurin needs to be his usual consistent self, Jahan Dotson needs to live up to his draft billing and Austin Ekeler needs to find the fountain of youth. This team will play fast on offense and needs Quinn to figure out how to elevate a middle-tier defense if it wants to complete. Things should be on the upswing in Washington, though.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 5​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
BAL at KC	08:20 PM	BAL +3.0 U 46.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s Den: NFC trends……..​

Cardinals
Since 2010, Arizona is 102-123-1 in regular season, 1-3 in playoffs.
From 2019-22, Kliff Kingsbury was their coach; he’ll be back in Arizona in Week 4, as OC of the Washington Commanders.

Falcons
Atlanta’s starting QB’s since 2021:
2021- Matt Ryan
2022- Marcus Mariota
2023- Desmond Ritter- They went 7-10/7-10/7-10 last three years
2024- Kirk Cousins/Michael Penix

Panthers
Carolina is 19-48 SU/27-38-2 ATS in four years since they let Ron Rivera go.
This year will be first time since 2018 they had same #1 QB two years in row.
Last four years, Panthers are 0-9 ATS as a favorite of 3 or fewer points.

Bears
Chicago’s single season leaders in passing yardage:
3,838- Erik Kramer, 1995
3,812- Jay Cutler, 2014
3,666- Jay Cutler, 2009
3,659- Jay Cutler, 2015
3,274- Jay Cutler, 2010

Cowboys
Dallas won Super Bowl after the 1995 season; since then, they’re 5-13 in playoff games.
Last three years, Cowboys were 12-5/12-5/12-5, but went 1-3 in playoffs.

Lions
Detroit won NFL titles in 1952, 1953, 1957, but none since.
In Super Bowl era, they’re 3-13 in playoff games.
In his 8-year career, QB Jared Goff in 5-4 in playoff games.

Packers
Last 7 years, favorites are 15-6 ATS in their NFC North home games.
Last five years, Green Bay is 6-1 ATS as a road dog vs NFC North rivals.

Rams
Lions took Matthew Stafford with 1st pick of 2009 Draft; Rams took OT Jason Smith with the 2nd pick, but he lasted only three years with the Rams, played another year with Jets.
Other QB’s picked in first round of ’09 Draft:
Mark Sanchez, 5th pick by Jets
Josh Freeman, 17th pick by Tampa Bay

Vikings
Kirk Cousins was Minnesota’s QB the last six years; in the 12 years before that, Vikings had used nine different #1 QB’s, everyone from Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder to Tavaris Jackson.
Since 2005, Minnesota is 3-5 in playoff games.

Giants
In two years under Daboll, Giants are 11-5-1 ATS at home.
In two years under Daboll, under is 12-5 in their home games.

Saints
New Orleans QB’s the last four years:
2020- Drew Brees
2021- Jameis Winston
2022- Andy Dalton
2023- Derek Carr- they went 37-30 in regular season, 1-1 in playoffs.

Eagles
Last three years, over is 19-6 in Philly home games.
Last year, Eagles went 11-6 despite a minus-10 turnover ratio; they fired both coordinators.

49ers
Last six times San Francisco made the playoffs, they went WWL
Last five years, 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their post-bye game.

Seahawks
Last three years, Seattle is 5-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Seahawks are 16-10 ATS as an underdog.

Buccaneers
In Bruce Arians’ last two years, Tampa Bay was 29-10, 5-1 in playoffs.
First two years without Arians, they’re 18-19, 1-2 in playoffs.

Commanders
Washington hasn’t won a playoff game since 2005, when Joe Gibbs was coach.
Washington QB’s since 2017:
2017- Kirk Cousins
2018- Alex Smith
2019- Case Keenum
2020- Alex Smith
2021-22- Taylor Heinicke
2023- Sam Howell
2024- Jayden Daniels

 

[Udog]

WEEK 1

Thursday, September 5

Friday, September 6

Sunday, September 8

Monday, September 9

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 1

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Trend Report
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Baltimore vs Kansas City
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Green Bay vs Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay

Tennessee vs Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tennessee's last 10 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Carolina vs New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Carolina's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

Pittsburgh vs Atlanta
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Pittsburgh is 11-1-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home

Arizona vs Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Arizona

New England vs Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home

Houston vs Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston's last 15 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis's last 15 games when playing at home against Houston

Jacksonville vs Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing Miami
Jacksonville is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
Miami is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games at home

Minnesota vs NY Giants
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
NY Giants is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Giants is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Las Vegas vs LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Las Vegas's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Las Vegas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Chargers's last 15 games

Denver vs Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 15 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Denver is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games at home

Dallas vs Cleveland
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Washington vs Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

LA Rams vs Detroit
LA Rams is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

NY Jets vs San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing NY Jets

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 1

Thursday’s game
Ravens @ Chiefs (-3)
Last 8 years, Baltimore is 7-1 SU/ATS in Week 1
Since 2015, Ravens are 20-9-2 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Jackson is 60-23 as an NFL starter.
Since 2008, Ravens are 11-5 ATS in their road opener.
Last three years, under is 15-10 in Baltimore’s road games.
Ravens have a first-time defensive coordinator.


Last 7 years, Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in Week 1.
Last four years, under is 21-11-1 in games at Arrowhead.
QB Mahomes is 89-25 as an NFL starter.
Last 3 years, Kansas City is 0-3 ATS in its home opener.
Last 21 years, defending Super Bowl champ is 11-7-3 ATS in Week 1 the next three years, 0-3 the last three years.


Chiefs won five of last six meetings.
Chiefs won 17-10 in Baltimore, in LY’s playoffs.
Ravens are 3-2 in Arrowhead, losing last two visits.


Friday’s game (@ San Paulo, Brazil)
Packers vs Eagles (-2.5)
Green Bay is 19-8 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog.
Last 6 years, Packers are 2-4 ATS in Week 1.
QB Love is 10-10 as an NFL starter.
Green Bay hasn’t opened at home since 2018.
Former Boston College HC Hafley is Green Bay’s new DC.


QB Hurts is 36-20 as an NFL starter.
Eagles have two new coordinators; Kellen Moore is new OC.
Last 8 years, Eagles are 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS in Week 1.
Since 2018, Eagles are 28-39-1 ATS as a favorite.
Last 5 years, over is 3-1-1 in their season opener.


Teams split their last six series games.
Eagles won last meeting 40-33, two years ago.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s game
Ravens @ Chiefs (-3)
Last 8 years, Baltimore is 7-1 SU/ATS in Week 1
Since 2015, Ravens are 20-9-2 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Jackson is 60-23 as an NFL starter.
Since 2008, Ravens are 11-5 ATS in their road opener.
Last three years, under is 15-10 in Baltimore’s road games.
Ravens have a first-time defensive coordinator.
Last 7 years, Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in Week 1.
Last four years, under is 21-11-1 in games at Arrowhead.
QB Mahomes is 89-25 as an NFL starter.
Last 3 years, Kansas City is 0-3 ATS in its home opener.
Last 21 years, defending Super Bowl champ is 11-7-3 ATS in Week 1 the next three years, 0-3 the last three years.
Chiefs won five of last six meetings.
Chiefs won 17-10 in Baltimore, in LY’s playoffs.
Ravens are 3-2 in Arrowhead, losing last two visits.

Friday’s game (@ San Paulo, Brazil)
Packers vs Eagles (-2.5)
Green Bay is 19-8 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog.
Last 6 years, Packers are 2-4 ATS in Week 1.
QB Love is 10-10 as an NFL starter.
Green Bay hasn’t opened at home since 2018.
Former Boston College HC Hafley is Green Bay’s new DC.
QB Hurts is 36-20 as an NFL starter.
Eagles have two new coordinators; Kellen Moore is new OC.
Last 8 years, Eagles are 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS in Week 1.
Since 2018, Eagles are 28-39-1 ATS as a favorite.
Last 5 years, over is 3-1-1 in their season opener.
Teams split their last six series games.
Eagles won last meeting 40-33, two years ago.

Sunday’s games
Cardinals @ Bills (-6.5)
Last 5 years, Arizona is 2-2-1 SU/4-1 ATS in Week 1.
Cardinals are 20-11-1 ATS in last 32 games as a road underdog.
QB Murray is 28-37-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Last three years, Arizona is 9-6 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Under is 5-1 in their last six road openers.
Arizona is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Last 8 years, Bills are only 4-4 SU in their season opener.
Last 5 years, Buffalo is 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in its home opener.
Last 3 years, Bills are 12-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2019, Buffalo is 14-8-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
QB Allen is 68-35 as an NFL starter.
Under is 4-1 in their last five season openers.
Bills won six of last eight meetings.
Cardinals lost four of five visits to Buffalo.
Cardinals’ only win here was in first visit, in 1971.

Patriots @ Bengals (-9.5)
Patriots’ first game since 1999 without Belichick as coach.
Last 3 years, New England is 0-3 SU/ATS in Week 1.
Last 4 years, New England is 9-12 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 9 years, Patriots are 6-3 ATS in road openers.
Patriots starting QB Brissett is 18-30 as an NFL starter.
Last 2 years, Bengals are 9-3-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 8 years, Bengals are 2-6 SU/ATS in home openers.
Since 2016, Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS as a favorite in a home opener.
QB Burrow is 34-24-1 as an NFL starter.
Cincinnati has new OC this year, though HC Taylor is really the OC.
New England won seven of last nine series games.
Patriots won four of last six visits to Cincinnati.

Vikings (-1) @ Giants
This is only 2nd time in last 8 years that Vikings are opening on road.
Last 7 years, Minnesota is 0-6-1 SU/0-7 ATS in road openers.
Under is 13-7 in their last 20 road openers.
QB Darnold is 21-35 as an NFL starter.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 8-8-3 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Minnesota is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Last 13 years, Giants started season 0-1 eleven times (both wins by one point).
Since 2012, Giants are 2-10 SU/1-11 ATS in home openers.
QB Jones is 23-37-1 as an NFL starter.
Under Daboll, Giants are 5-4-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Giants’ last ten home openers stayed under the total.
New defensive coordinator for Big Blue this season.
Minnesota won four of last five series games.
Giants won last meeting, 31-24, in ’22 playoffs.
This is Vikings’ first visit to New Jersey since 2019.

Titans @ Bears (-4.5)
Last 7 years, underdog is 7-0 ATS in Titans’ Week 1 games.
Last 11 years, Tennessee is 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS in its road opener.
Since 2018, Titans are 28-16 ATS as a road underdog.
Titans’ last five season openers stayed under the total.
QB Levis is 3-6 as an NFL starter.
Titans have an all-new coaching staff.
Since 2003, QB’s taken with #1 pick in draft are 0-14-1 SU/1-14 ATS in their first start.
Last 10 years, Bears are 2-8 SU/4-6 ATS in Week 1 games.
Last 10 years, Chicago is 0-3 ATS as a Week 1 favorite.
Under Eberflus, Bears are 2-3-1 ATS as a favorite.
Bears have a 3rd-year HC but have two new coordinators TY.
Tennessee won three of last four meetings.
Titans won four of six visits to Chicago

Steelers @ Falcons (-3)
Steelers OC Smith was Atlanta’s head coach the last three years (21-30 W-L)
Since 2017, Pittsburgh is 22-12-1 as a road underdog.
QB Wilson is 124-79-1 as an NFL starter.
Last two years, Steelers were 7-3 ATS vs NFC squads.
Pittsburgh won/covered its last four road openers.
Steelers’ last seven road openers stayed under the total.
Raheem Morris is 21-38 as an NFL head coach.
Last four years, Atlanta is 4-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, Falcons were 3-6-1 ATS vs NFC squads.
New QB Cousins is 77-70-2 as an NFL starter.
Last 7 years, Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their home opener.
This is fifth year in a row Atlanta has opened season at home.
Pittsburgh won last four series games.
Falcons’ last series win was 41-38 in 2006, in OT.
Steelers are 8-2 SU in Atlanta.

Jaguars @ Dolphins (-3)
Jaguars are 19-17 SU under Pederson (15-50 previous four years)
Since 2018, Jaguars are 14-23-2 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Lawrence is 21-31 as an NFL starter.
Last 7 years, Jaguars are 3-4 SU/5-2 ATS in road openers.
Jacksonville’s last four road openers went over the total.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2013, Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in Week 1 games.
QB Tagovailoa is 32-20 as an NFL starter.
Miami is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 home openers.
Over is 12-3 in their last fifteen home openers.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Jacksonville won three of last four series games.
Jaguars won two of three visits to Miami.

Famous birthdays, September 3rd:
Valerie Perrine, 81
Steve Schirripa, 66
Charlie Sheen, 59
Luis Gonzalez, 57
Robert Bailey, 56
George Lynch, 54
Damon Stoudamire, 51
Mason Crosby, 40
David Peterson, 29

Texans (-3) @ Colts
Houston was 10-7 LY, its first winning year since 2019.
Since 2016, Texans are 2-7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Last 7 years, Texans are 5-2 ATS in road openers.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 10-7 as an NFL starter.
Under is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.
Houston is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Last 10 years, Colts are 0-9-1 SU/1-8-1 ATS in Week 1.
Since 2020, Colts are 3-8-1ATS in AFC South home games.
Since 2018, Indy is 5-7 ATS as a home underdog.
2nd-year QB Richardson is 2-2 as an NFL starter.
Colts are one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Houston is 2-1-1 in last four meetings.
Texans won 32-21/23-19 in last two visits to Indy.
Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.
Underdogs are 8-5 ATS in last 13 meetings.

Panthers @ New Orleans (-4)
Last three years, Carolina is 7-15-1 ATS as road underdog.
2nd year QB Young is 2-14 as an NFL starter.
Last 5 years, Carolina is 1-4 SU/ATS in Week 1 games.
Since 2009, Panthers are 5-10 ATS in road openers.
Last nine years, Carolina is 11-15-1 ATS in NFC South road games.
Last three years, Saints missed playoffs, going 9-8/7-10/9-8
Last three years, New Orleans is 6-8 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Carr is 72-88 as an NFL starter.
Last 10 years, Saints are 4-6 SU/1-9 ATS in Week 1 games.
Last 9 years, New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in home openers.
Last six years, Saints are 8-10 ATS in NFC South home games.
Saints are 7-3 in last ten series games.
Panthers lost seven of last nine visits to New Orleans.
Last six series games stayed under the total.
Underdogs are 8-4 ATS in last dozen meetings.

Raiders @ Chargers (-3)
Raiders won their season opener four of last five years.
QB Minshew is 15-22 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.
Since 2019, Las Vegas is 19-11 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2007, Raiders are 12-4-1 ATS in road openers.
Last five years, Raiders are 9-6 ATS in AFC West road games.
Under is 5-2 in their last seven road openers.
Chargers also won their season opener four of last five years.
Harbaugh was 49-22-1 as 49ers’ coach (2011-14).
Since 2018, Bolts are 11-22-2 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Herbert is 30-33 as an NFL starter.
Last 7 years, Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their home opener.
Last four years, Chargers are 6-5-1 ATS in AFC West home games.
Home team won last six series games.
Raiders won last meeting 63-21 last year.
Raiders lost last three visits to SoFi, by 14-5-7 points.

Broncos @ Seahawks (-5.5)
Rookie QB Nix (61 college starts) makes his first NFL start.
In his career, Payton is 50-34-2 ATS as an underdog.
Last three years, Broncos are 7-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 7 years, Denver is 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS in road openers.
Last two years, Denver was 3-7 ATS vs NFC opponents.
Under is 4-2 in their last six road openers.
Last four years, Seahawks are 6-3 ATS as home favorites.
Since 2009, Seattle is 13-2 SU/10-5 ATS in home openers (3-5 ATS last 8).
Seattle is 10-7-2 ATS last 19 games vs AFC opponents.
QB Smith is 30-37 as an NFL starter, 18-18 with Seattle.
Under is 10-3 in their last 13 home openers.
First game as head coach for Mike MacDonald.
Seahawks won three of last four meetings.
Broncos lost last two visits to Seattle, 26-20/17-16.

Cowboys @ Browns (-2.5)
Last ten years, Dallas is 4-6 SU in Week 1 games.
Last four years, Cowboys are 6-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Last two years, Dallas was 4-8 ATS on natural grass.
QB Prescott is 75-46 as an NFL starter.
Last two years, Dallas was 6-4 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Cowboys covered four of their last five road openers.
Cleveland won last 2 season openers (1-21-1 from 1999-2021)
Browns were 11-6 LY, with four different QB’s getting a win.
Cleveland was 8-1 ATS at home LY, 6-0 as a home favorite.
QB Watson is 37-31 as an NFL starter, 8-4 with Browns.
Cleveland is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC opponents.
Over is 4-1 in Browns’ last four home openers.
Dallas won four of five series games.
Browns won last meeting, 49-38 in 2020.
Cowboys won their last three visits to Cleveland.

Commanders @ Buccaneers (-3.5)
Rookie QB Daniels (55 college starts) makes his first NFL start.
Last eight years, Commanders are 29-23-1 ATS as road underdogs.
Last 5 years, Washington allowed 30+ points in road openers (1-4 SU/2-3 ATS)
Over is 4-1 in those five road openers.
Dan Quinn was 46-44 as coach of the Falcons (2015-20).
Last eight years, Washington has started 8 different QB’s in Week 1.
Under Bowles, Tampa Bay is 3-6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Last four years, Tampa Bay is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in Week 1 games.
QB Mayfield is 42-28 as an NFL starter, 10-9 with Buccaneers.
Over is 3-1 in their last four home openers.
Last two years, under is 10-6 in Tampa Bay home games.
Washington won three of last four series games.
Commanders won last two visits to Tampa; their last loss here was in 2007.

Rams @ Lions (-3.5)
Under McVay, Rams started season 1-0 six of seven years.
Under McVay, Rams are 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS in road openers.
Under McVay, Rams are 11-10-2 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Stafford is 28-18 as Rams’ QB (was 74-93-1 with Detroit).
Over is 4-1 in Rams’ last five road openers.
Under Campbell, Lions are 9-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 9 years, Detroit is 2-7 SU/4-5 ATS in home openers.
Over is 6-1 in their last seven home openers.
QB Goff is 26-24-1 as Detroit’s QB (was 44-30 with Rams)
Last six years, Lions are 1-4-1 SU in Week 1 games.
Detroit beat LA 24-23 in LY’s playoffs.
Rams are 3-2 in last five series games.
Rams lost four of last five visits to Detroit.
Rams QB Stafford played for Detroit from 2009-20.
Lions QB Goff played for Rams from 2017-20.

Monday’s game
Jets @ 49ers (-3.5)
QB Rodgers played only 4 plays LY before he tore his achilles.
Rodgers is 159-85-1 as an NFL starter.
Last four years, Jets are 10-18 ATS as road underdogs.
Jets are 5-13-1 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC opponents.
Last 8 years, Jets are 2-6 SU/3-4-1 ATS in Week 1 games.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
Jets coach Saleh was DC for 49ers from 2017-20.
Under Shanahan, San Francisco is 18-22-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, 49ers were 3-7 ATS vs AFC opponents.
QB Purdy is 21-5 as an NFL starter.
Last 7 years, 49ers are 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in Week 1 games.
Under is 8-2 in their last ten home openers.
49ers are 11-3 in series games.
Jets are 2-4 in road meetings, winning last one 23-17 in OT in last one, in 2016.
Posted onSeptember 3, 2024Leave a commenton Tuesday’s Den: our Week 1 NFL writeup……..

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s quiz
Who threw the first no-hitter in Arizona Diamondbacks’ history?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie Someone to Watch Over Me, Tom Berenger is a New York City cop assigned to protect a woman who witnessed a murder. Mimi Rogers played the witness.

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jameis Winston has the most passing yards.

******************************************

Thursday’s Den: NFL notes, thoughts with the season starting tonite…….​

How last 20 defending Super Bowl champs did in Week 1 the next season; 15 of the last 16 opened at home:
2003: Buccaneers (+3) W17-0 @ Philadelphia
2004: Patriots (-3) W27-24 vs Indianapolis
2005: Patriots (-7.5) W30-20 vs Oakland
2006: Steelers (-1) W28-17 vs Miami
2007: Colts (-5.5) W41-10 vs New Orleans
2008: Giants (-4.5) W16-7 vs Washington
2009: Steelers (-6.5) W13-10 vs Tennessee
2010: Saints (-5) W14-9 vs Minnesota
2011: Packers (-5) W42-34 vs New Orleans
2012: Giants (-5) L17-24 vs Dallas
2013: Ravens (+7.5) L27-49 @ Denver
2014: Seahawks (-5.5) W36-16 vs Green Bay
2015: Patriots (-7) W28-21 vs Pittsburgh
2016: Broncos (+3) W21-20 vs Carolina
2017: Patriots (-8) L27-42 vs Kansas City
2018: Eagles (-1) W18-12 vs Atlanta
2019: Patriots (-5.5) W33-3 vs Pittsburgh
2020: Chiefs (-9) W34-20 vs Houston
2021: Buccaneers (-8) W31-29 vs Dallas
2022: Rams (+2.5) L10-31 vs Buffalo
2023: Chiefs (-4.5) L20-21 vs Detroit
(11-7-3 ATS, 0-3 ATS last three years)

— 17 of the 32 offensive coordinators are in new jobs this season; makes it difficult to handicap Week 1, not much idea what to expect.

— Steelers brought in Russell Wilson AND Justin Fields this year, as they totally re-made their QB room. Wilson is 124-79-1 with a Super Bowl ring, but he was 17-27 the last three years and he will be 36 years old in November.
Fields is 10-28 as an NFL starter, heading towards suspect more than prospect. Will they use him in goal line/short yardage situations?

— Pittsburgh OC Arthur Smith was the Falcons’ head coach the last three years, going 7-10 all three seasons, so they fired him; Steelers open up in Atlanta Sunday.
Think that game is a little personal for Smith?

— Deshaun Watson has already gone thru two years of his guaranteed, five-year $46M/year contract, but he’s only played in 12 of 34 games for the Browns so far. Cleveland went 11-6 last year, with four different QB’s earning a win- that isn’t sustainable- they need Watson to play like a QB who deserves $46M a year.

— Eagles started 10-1 last year, then lost six of their last seven games, then changed both of their coordinators— it came out that QB Jalen Hurts and coach Nick Sirianni aren’t exactly the best of buddies, which puts the focus on new OC Kellen Moore, who spent eight of the last nine years with division rival Dallas.
This is a franchise that let Andy Reid/Doug Peterson walk; is Sirianni on thin ice?

— Aaron Donald retired; when a team loses one of the best defensive players ever, it puts their defense in question, especially with a new defensive coordinator (Chris Shula).

— Famous birthdays, September 5th:
William Devane, 85
Billy Kilmer, 85
Michael Keaton, 73
Willie Gault, 64
Dennis Scott, 56
Austin Corbett, 29
Jarren Duran, 28
Steven Kwan, 27
Mac Jones, 26

— Jets’ QB Aaron Rodgers tore his achilles on the 4th play last season; his health is obviously a big key as the Jets try to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Jets have five prime-time games and a Europe game in their first nine contests; someone in the league office thinks Gang Green is a contender.

— Chargers QB Justin Herbert battled a plantar fascia injury all summer; he was in a walking boot for two weeks. Chargers recently traded for Taylor Heinicke to back up Herbert; Heinicke is 13-16-1 as an NFL starter.

— Last five years, Buffalo Bills are 58-24 in regular season, only 5-5 in playoff games; Bills have problems with the salary cap these days, the way a lot of contending teams do, so their roster may be a little thinner this season than it has been.

— It is difficult for me to process that Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll are no longer NFL coaches; did they suddenly become incompetent? Hopefully Carroll will surface on TV somewhere; with his enthusiasm, he’d be a great teacher on TV.
Belichick seems like he is kind of boring; hopefully I’ll be wrong about that, but we’ll see.

— Should rookie QB’s start right away? Patrick Mahomes didn’t start until the last game of his rookie year; watching for a while can be a help.
Bears/Commanders are going with rookie QB’s right away; we’ll see how that works out.

— How last 20 Super Bowl losers did in Week 1 the following season:
2003: Raiders (+3) L20-25 @ Tennessee
2004: Panthers (-3) L14-24 vs Green Bay
2005: Eagles (-1) L10-14 @ Atlanta
2006: Seahawks (-6) W9-6 @ Detroit
2007: Bears (+7) L3-19 @ San Diego
2008: Patriots (-16) W17-10 vs Kansas City
2009: Cardinals (-5) L16-20 vs San Francisco
2010: Colts (-1.5) L24-34 @ Houston
2011: Steelers (+1) L7-35 @ Baltimore
2012: Patriots (-5) W34-13 @ Tennessee
2013: 49ers (-5) W34-28 vs Green Bay
2014: Broncos (-7.5) W31-24 vs Indianapolis
2015: Seahawks (-3.5) L31-34 OT @ Rams
2016: Panthers (-3) L20-21 @ Denver
2017: Falcons (-6.5) W23-17 @ Chicago
2018: Patriots (-6.5) W27-20 vs Houston
2019: Rams (-1.5) W30-27 @ Carolina
2020: 49ers (-7) L20-24 vs Arizona
2021: Chiefs (-5.5) W33-29 vs Cleveland
2022: Bengals (-7) L20-23 OT vs Pittsburgh
2023: Eagles (-3.5) W25-20 @ Philadelphia
(5-16 ATS, 3-3 ATS last six years)

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Thursday, September 5

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 5​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
BAL at KC	08:20 PM	BAL +3.0 U 46.5	+500 +500