Colin's Picks Result
Buccaneers (-1.5) at Panthers
Saints (-4.5) at Raiders
Browns (+8) at Cowboys
Packers at Lions (+3.5)
Ravens at Steelers (+3.5)
Record: 35-15
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NFL: Colin Cowherd's Blazing Five (Week 11)
Cowherd is drawing a lot of buzz in the gambling community after compiling a 35-15 (70%) record against the spread this year after a solid 51-37 (58%) record a year ago.
Bucs -1.5
Tampa Bay red hot minus 1.5 points, that's all I have to give up? I'll take it. The Panthers are 0-5 in games decided by 7 points or fewer. What does that mean? They do the little things poorly. Cam Newton 13 turnovers all by himself. Tampa's the opposite. The Bucs have a turnover margin of +9 and do an excellent job of creating turnovers. Tampa's got the most underrated receiving corp in the league right now. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams among the leaders in yards per catch. Carolina by the way, one of the worst tackling secondarys in the NFL. Josh Freeman can be up and down in his career. Right now he's absolutely on fire. This team in the last month, 38, 28, 36, 42, 34. Earlier this year they lost but scored 34. Tampa Bay's got a 1-2 punch running the football. Legarrette Blount and how about my favorite Martin? That kid's on fire. The connection between Newton and Steve Smith isn't there anymore. Steve Smith now a better blocker on some Sundays than a pass catcher because Newton can't get him the ball. Swallow the points, Tampa Bay wins 24-20.
Saints -4.5
Boy, I love this game. Neither teams great defensively, the difference is the Saints are getting better. The Saints -4.5, they're on the road cross country, but they've won 4 of their last 5. They have a huge edge right now offensive and defensive line against the Raiders and obviously with Brees an edge at quarterback. The Raiders are giving up a bucket load of points this year and on mostly passing yards. And now they face Drew Brees. For Oakland to win this game they would need clock eating ground game. That's what they need. Run the football, keep it away from Brees. Here's a really, really bad combination in the NFL, bad defense and can't run the football. That means you're gonna give the other team lots and lots of possessions. Now the Saints don't have a great defense but they're running the football in the last few weeks. Chris Ivory has become a beast, Darrin Sproles according to the wire today will also play. With no running game to speak of, the Raiders are gonna struggle to keep Carson Palmer upright against a defense that will blitz and is improving. I'm taking the Saints to win this game out west, 31-20, swallow the points.
Browns +8
Cleveland loses a lot, but they hang around a lot. And they're getting 8 points. Trent Richardson's healthy, they're coming off a bye. And lets be honest, Cleveland as a dog is pretty scrappy. They have a major advantage on the offensive line over Dallas. Cleveland's strong suit is running the football and Dallas is really banged up along the front 7. And linebacker Sean Lee is out for the year, he was great against the run. This football game at times will be ugly. But the Cowboys are 31st in the league in turnover margin. They have more talent but they're a bad home favorite. 8 points is a ton and on plus/minus where the Cowboys are a mess, Cleveland's actually been a solid +1. Cleveland also has an elite secondary, tremendoes corners. Joe Haden and Sheldon Brown, they will match up well with Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Kevin Ogletree. The Browns, an improving team, coming off a bye, this is a Superbowl game for them against a Dallas team thats been underwhelming when they have to give points at home. Cowboys win the game, I think it's very competitive. I'll take the 8 points. 27-23 Cowboys.
Lions +3.5
Listen, Green Bay's better than Detroit, but they're a mess physically. Their pass rush, won't have it this week, Clay Matthews is out. Charles Woodson's hurt. Remember Green Bay, this has happened the last couple of years, their not the same team hurt as they are healthy. For the Packers, beat Jacksonville and Arizona, and in both games struggled. Did you watch Green Bay against Jacksonville? If the Jags don't fumble in the red zone at Lambeau, you got yourself a real football game. Green Bay's become increasingly one-dimensional. They're only averaging about 90 yards a game on the ground. Offensive and defensive line, big advantages to Detroit. Here's what Detroit does well...throw the football. With Clay Matthews out, less of a pass rush. Also, look for offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to spread the Packers out, create some mismatches, that should open up creases for the running game for Detroit. If you haven't noticed, Nick Fairley has been playing exceptional up front for the Detroit Lions. I'm taking the points here. Last week I called an upset. I took the Saints over Atlanta, you called me an idiot. My upset of the week, Detroit a healthier team, explosive offense, beats a beat up Green Bay team. I think also Detroit's more desperate in this game.
Steelers +3.5
Listen, Big Ben's out, they're not the same team. But I'm getting Pittsburgh at home and I'm getting 3.5 points on Monday Night Football. Last 16 games in Pittsburgh, they've won 15 of them. Byron Leftwich as a backup will never make plays with his feet. They're not asking him to. Byron Leftwich is not gonna ad lib you to wins. They're not gonna ask him to. He's been in the league 9 years, a couple years in Pittsburgh, and right now I get a Pittsburgh team that has finally got all 3 of their running backs, Rashard Mendenhall, Isaac Redman, and Jonathan Dwyer ready to play. The Ravens are banged up. Ray Lewis out for the year. Lardarius Webb out the year, and Haloti Ngata sat out last week has a shoulder issue. Baltimore has done very well last year against Pittsburgh and the Steelers know it. They are a much better team. Especially at defensive line, linebacker, and the secondary. I like Tomlin the coach. They're at home and they're not going to ask Byron Leftwich to do anything other than to hand off to 3 bruisng backs, make simple throws to elite receivers and Heath Miller. It is a very manageable game for Byron Leftwich. Pittsburgh wins at home, I'll take the 3.5, 24 to 23.
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