College 10/18

[Sixth Sense]

Home team in caps.

KANSAS -21 Baylor

I simply don't understand the line on this game. I realize we're talking about Kansas here and anytime Kansas is being asked to lay -21 points in a game, you have to take another look, but it's also against Baylor. Kansas is a very underrated team right now, averaging 6.9 yards per play against teams allowing 5.9 yards per play. That includes 4.6 yards per rush against teams allowing 4.3 yards per rush and a whopping 10.3 yards per pass against teams allowing 8.0 yards per pass. That should fit just fine against a Baylor defense that is allowing 6.9 yards per play against teams averaging just 5.2 yards per play, including 5.6 ypr against 3.6 ypr and 8.8 yps against 7.4 yps. The Kansas defense hasn't been real good this year, allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl but it's been their rush defense, which has let them down, allowing 5.0 ypr against 3.8 ypr. I doubt Baylor will take full advantage of that, seeing they are only averaging 2.7 ypr against 3.8 ypr this year. And it doesn't look like Baylor will be able to come from behind either, with their passing game, which is averaging just 5.7 yps against 7.7 yps, especially considering the Kansas pass defense has been good this year, allowing only 6.3 yps against 6.8 yps. Some of that could be because Kansas has played predominantly running teams but I still doubt Baylor will be able to take advantage. And don't get too caught up on Baylor's 42-30 win over Colorado two weeks ago. Colorado out gained Baylor in that game 7.1 yppl to 4.9 yppl but lost the turnover battle 1-5. I don't have any situations favoring Kansas here and I actually have a 17-2 situation that favors Baylor. But, I have been on Kansas for the last two weeks and there is no reason to get off now. My final numbers in this game predict Kansas to win this game by around 38 to 41 points, giving us tremendous value. And we can make sense out of those numbers as well, when we consider Kansas beat a good Missouri team here by 21 points and a decent UNLV team here by 22 points. Both those teams rate about 16 points better than Baylor. And when you consider Baylor has taken it to the road this year and lost by 38 at North Texas and by 63 last week at A&M, this game should not be close. Kansas and A&M, believe it or not, are pretty close in terms of how good each team is. Kansas has scored 46, 42, 41, 35 and 47 points in each of their last five games. They should reach their high mark here. Knowing they have Kansas State, A&M, Nebraska and Oklahoma State on the docket, they should go all out here. KANSAS 52 BAYLOR 14

USC -8 NOTRE DAME

I can't try and sell ND as the better team here but I can try and sell their defense as the better defense and their offense, which is bad, as not as bad as it might appear. ND has the better defense here. They have played a much tougher schedule and are allowing 4.4 yppl. USC is only allowing 4.5 yppl but USC has done that against offenses that are averaging only 4.9 yppl, which are below average offenses, as a whole. Meanwhile, ND is only allowing 4.4 yppl but against offenses averaging 5.7 yppl. As for points, USC is allowing only 20 points per game but against teams averaging only 22 points per game, while ND has allowed 25 points per game but against teams averaging 33 points per game. On offense, USC has done very well, averaging 6.1 yppl against 5.2 yppl, while ND is averaging only 4.0 yppl but against very tough defenses, that are allowing only 4.4 yppl. So, the ND offense is below average but it is against very, very tough defenses, while USC has played, as a whole, below average defenses. Bottom line here is the USC offense is better, the ND defense is better, USC is a better team overall, but some of that is negated because ND is at home and the value lies with them. Sound defenses, getting points and have played the tougher schedule are good bets. USC also qualifies in a negative 12-37-0 situation, which won with Michigan State three weeks ago against Iowa and last week with Missouri against Nebraska. My numbers make this game about a two point game and combined with the better defense, situations and home field in their favor, I like taking the points. ND hasn't lost by more than three points at home to USC, as far back as I can check, which is 1983. NOTRE DAME 24 USC 23

TULSA PK Nevada

Just like Kansas, I have been on Tulsa each of their last two games and there isn't any reason to get off of them now. Until the linemaker can catch up with this team, I will be on them. My numbers make Tulsa about an eight or nine point winner here, and at pick 'em, with a team playing very well, I like the play. Realize, as I rattle off these numbers, that Tulsa has played a much tougher schedule. Both team's offenses are about equal, with Nevada averaging 5.2 yppl against 5.2 yppl, while Tulsa is averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.2 yppl but again Tulsa has played a tougher schedule. On defense, here is where going inside the numbers tells the real story. Nevada is allowing 4.9 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl. That would make them above average, and seemingly, much better than Tulsa, who is allowing 6.0 yppl. But you better understand Tulsa is allowing 6.0 yppl against teams averaging 5.8 yppl, and again, Tulsa has played the much, much tougher schedule. In terms of points, Nevada is allowing 21 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game. Tulsa is allowing 29 points per game but against teams averaging 31 points per game, which actually makes Tulsa an above average defense. Yes, Tulsa is allowing 208 yards per game at 5.2 ypr but, again, they have done that against teams who are averaging 4.8 ypr, so the numbers don't appear to be so bad. Nevada upset Washington last week but that puts them into a negative situation that is 9-31-0 playing against them this week. I'll continue to ride what I think is the better team. TULSA 27 NEVADA 17

OHIO STATE -3.5 Iowa

Ohio State's perfect season was ruined last week in Wisconsin and it appears their magic may have run out. OSU has been playing with fire for over a season now and last week they couldn't come up with the answer. This week, it may be more of the same. Considering teams who start out 5-0 or better, after their first loss, usually don't perform very well as favorites in their next game and OSU qualifies in a negative momentum situation, based on that premise, which is a 43-18-1 play against them here. OSU lost last week as a favorite and that usually doesn't bode well for teams in their situation this week and they qualify in another negative situation, which is a 36-14-1 play against situation here. The Iowa offense is better than OSU, averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.3 yppl, while OSU is averaging 4.7 yppl against 5.4 yppl. On defense, OSU is better but it's pretty close, allowing 3.9 yppl against 5.3 yppl, while Iowa is allowing 4.2 yppl against 5.4 yppl. No question the Iowa defense is very tough this year and I realize their offense seems to play better at home but I think, combined with their defense, their offense will be enough on the road against an anemic offense of OSU. My final numbers suggest Iowa wins this game by three to five points. IOWA 17 OHIO STATE 14

NEBRASKA -10 Texas A&M

Another game where we really need to go inside the numbers to really get the whole story. A&M has played the tougher schedule this year but they are on the road this week, which could negate some of their numbers. Nebraska qualifies in the same negative momentum situation that OSU qualifies in after losing their first game of the season last week, which is a 43-18-1 play against them here. No question the A&M offense is better than Nebraska. A&M is averaging 6.7 yppl against 5.7 yppl, while Nebraska is averaging 5.0 yppl against 5.0 yppl. The real story here is on the defensive side of the ball, where Nebraska is very good, allowing 4.1 yppl against teams averaging 4.7 yppl. A&M, meanwhile, is allowing 5.2 yppl, which would appear to make their defense look much worse, but they are doing that against offenses that are averaging 5.7 yppl. So, Nebraska is allowing 0.6 yards per play less and A&M is allowing 0.5 yards per play less to much better offenses (5.7 yppl to 4.7 yppl) and has played the tougher schedule. Even if their defense doesn't play as well, on the road, as I am making them out to be, Nebraska doesn't have the type of offense that can take advantage of their defense, like Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Texas Tech can. Nebraska is a pure running team (80% of the time), as we all know, but they are not running the ball very well this year, averaging just 4.2 ypr against teams allowing 3.9 ypr. That's above average but not far enough above average, when you run the ball 80% of the time. And they'll run straight into an A&M rush defense that is allowing 3.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. A&M has the athletic quarterback that can take some of the heat off of their offense, just like Missouri did last week against Nebraska. Just too many points to be laying with, what I consider to be two evenly matched teams, especially with an anemic offense like Nebraska. My numbers make this final about nine to 11 points, in favor of Nebraska, but I think inside the numbers, A&M has a great shot at winning this game straight up. NEBRASKA 24 TEXAS A&M 22

YTD 17-21-1 -15.00%

2% COLORADO ST -5.5 (THUR)
2% KANSAS -21
2% NOTRE DAME +8
2% TULSA PK No higher than -2.5
2% IOWA +3.5 Must get at least 3
2% TEXAS A&M +10 Must get at least 10
2% SOUTH CAROLINA +4
2% OHIO +15.5
2% WASHINGTON +10.5 Must get at least 10

 

[Sixth Sense]

KENTUCKY -15.5 Ohio

This one's pretty simple. I rate teams from an offensive, defensive and overall standpoint. These teams rate as even teams across the board. Kentucky has played the tougher schedule, which negates some of this, but not that much tougher, that makes these ratings useless. When two evenly rated teams play and one team is getting 15.5 points, the dog is the way to go here. Ohio is averaging 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl, while Kentucky is averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl, making the two offense even. On defense, Ohio is allowing 5.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.5 yppl, and Kentucky is allowing 5.6 yppl against teams averaging 5.4 yppl. Again, Kentucky has played a little tougher schedule, which makes their numbers a little better. If this line were less than 14, Ohio would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation. My final numbers make this about a nine to 11 point final, which gives us solid value on Ohio. KENTUCKY 31 OHIO 24

LSU -4 SOUTH CAROLINA

Well, here is another game, where once you get inside the numbers, I think SC has a chance in this game. LSU has been exposed as the phony contender they thought they were. With their first loss last week, they qualify in the same negative momentum situation that OSU and Nebraska qualify in, which is a 43-18-1 play against situation. I rate the offenses equal, at least from a team rating perspective. That doesn't mean SC has as good an offense as LSU, but within the ratings, they rate in the same group. The same happens on defense, where they rate in the same group. Overall, LSU rates as the better team. But SC has played the tougher schedule this year and LSU hasn't fared very well when they've played the two good defenses they have faced this year, Georgia and Florida, by scoring only 17 and 7 points. Now, on the road against a defense, not as good as Georgia but better than Florida, or as good, they don't figure to score many points, and that's trouble when laying points. And, their anemic offensive output last week puts them in another negative situation, which is a 42-16-3 play against situation. That situation is 2-0-1 this year, and won with Kentucky over Florida a few weeks ago and with Georgia Tech earlier in the year against Auburn. The same thing is doomed to happen again this week. The LSU offense is below average this year, from a yards per play perspective, gaining just 5.4 yppl against 5.6 yppl. SC has averaged 5.3 yppl against 5.3 yppl and when you consider they have not only played the tougher schedule, but gone on the road to face Georgia and Tennessee, that makes their numbers much better than LSU's two road games against Arizona and Mississippi State, who can't play defense. On defense, LSU is allowing 4.1 yppl against 5.3 yppl, while SC is allowing 4.5 yppl against 5.2 yppl. The biggest difference in these two teams, and it may show again this week, is LSU's ability to convert their yards into points and SC not being able to do so. I'm not so much banking on that changing this week but rather saying much of LSU's success has been because they have played their tough games at home and haven't been challenged on the road by a good defense, where SC has played their toughest games on the road against solid defenses. At home, they have played well. Solid defense, getting points at home, having played the tougher schedule adds up to point spread success and I am on SC on Saturday. SOUTH CAROLINA 17 LSU 14

OREGON STATE -10.5 Washington

Washington's upset loss last week as an 17.5 point favorite sets them up into a very solid 62-21-0 situation, which has already won this year with Florida over LSU last week and Kansas State over Texas two weeks ago. These two teams rate as even and Washington has almost played as tough a schedule as OSU. When that happens and you are getting double digits, the dog is the side to look to. My numbers make OSU about a 13 to 14 point favorite here but the double digit dog as an evenly rated team and the solid situation give Washington a chance in this game. OREGON STATE 31 WASHINGTON 24

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Double S - Great stuff on your analysis! We may be wrong on ND but what I like is that alot of people have actually said all week that they like USC and that suits me just fine. With this line moving around as much as it did this week lets hope it ends up in our favour. GL on your plays!

HORNS