The good news about last week was I won my first game on Thursday with Colorado State. I also won the last game on the card, with an upset win on Washington. But, unfortunately, I lost everything in the middle of that card and suffered a terrible 2-7 day. I had some games where if the turnovers would have played out differently, I may have had a chance. Texas A&M lost the turnover battle 0-8, Iowa outplayed their opponent but allowed a punt return for a touchdown and a blocked punt for a touchdown, Ohio suffered two quarterback fumbles inside their own 30 that led to two touchdowns, Tulsa turned the ball over four more times than Nevada. But perhaps those teams committed those turnovers because they weren't the better teams. But even if I had gotten some of those, I had two miserable picks on Notre Dame and South Carolina where I was dead wrong. On to bigger and better things and hopefully a better day today.
Home team in caps.
PITTSBURGH -7 Syracuse
Very good match up between two offense that have played very well this year, using different strategies to get their work done and a defense that has not played that well this year. Syracuse likes to get it done on the ground, averaging 4.9 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 ypr and gaining 224 yards per game on the ground. The Pittsburgh defense has just not played that well this year, allowing 4.1 ypr against teams averaging just 3.8 ypr and 161 yards per game on the ground. For Pittsburgh, they get their damage done through the air, averaging 8.7 yps against teams allowing just 7.2 yps and they have averaged 292 yards per game passing this year. Syracuse has played the pass pretty well this year, allowing only 6.7 yps against 7.1 yps. Because of Syracuse's ability to rush the ball and Pittsburgh inability to sufficiently stop the rush, Syracuse qualifies in a solid 72-32-1 rushing situation. My numbers also support Syracuse to possibly win this game straight up, giving us great value on Syracuse. SYRACUSE 28 PITTSBURGH 24
MICHIGAN -5 Purdue
Great match up here. Everyone talks about how good the Purdue defense is but the Michigan defense has played equally well. Purdue is allowing 4.1 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl and Michigan is allowing 4.3 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl, making the two defenses pretty equal. Purdue has played a slightly tougher schedule. But the big difference between these two teams is on offense, where Michigan is averaging 6.0 yppl against teams allowing 5.1 yppl and Purdue is averaging just 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl, making their offense just average. Purdue beat Wisconsin last week but only averaged 5.1 yppl to Wisconsin's 5.6 yppl. The big difference in the game was Wisconsin starting qb Sorgi had to leave the game and Wisconsin's -3 turnover ratio. Michigan qualifies in a terrific situation that is not only 125-50-3 but also 7-1 this year. My numbers suggest about a nine point victory for Michigan and probably even a little more with the strong situation in their favor. Equal defenses, but the better offense at home wins this one. MICHIGAN 33 PURDUE 20
Texas Tech -3.5 MISSOURI
Always difficult to go against TT with their high flying offense but this is a great match up for Missouri. TT runs and throws the ball well but they hardly ever run, which is the weakness of the Missouri defense and it really isn't that weak, allowing 3.8 ypr against 3.8 ypr. The strength of the Missouri defense is their pass defense, allowing just 7.0 yps against 7.8 yps. Last week they allowed Oklahoma to only gain 8.2 yps and Oklahoma gains 9.3 yps on average. For the season, TT is averaging 8.6 yps against 7.9 yps. If TT is averaging about 0.7 yps more than their opponent and Missouri is allowing about 0.8 yps less, Missouri will probably hold TT to about 0.1 less than the average. That should be enough for Missouri to win this game, especially when you consider Missouri rushes the ball well, averaging 4.6 ypr against teams allowing just 4.2 ypr and now they'll face a bad TT defense. The TT defense is allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr and when Missouri decides to throw the ball, they should also have success against TT, who is allowing 8.4 yps against 7.5 yps. Missouri qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 111-65-2. My numbers support TT to win this game by about four points but when you add in the strong situation in Missouri's favor, this game becomes a pick 'em and the match up strongly favors Missouri. It looks like they may finally have set the total a little too high as well. The total is at 77.5 and my final numbers show about 75 points being scored. I wouldn't take the under but it may have finally caught up to them. MISSOURI 38 TEXAS TECH 37
Tennessee -3.5 ALABAMA
The hardest part about taking Alabama here is I know I am getting the short of it with the coach. I know my head coach is going to be out coached in this game. Still, I think the situation and the match up favor Alabama enough to warrant taking them. Tennessee is an over rated team. These two teams have played equal schedules so the numbers should help to tell the story. The offenses are about equal, with Tennessee averaging 5.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl and Alabama averaging 5.2 yppl against 4.8 yppl. But on defense the 'Bama defense has played better allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.5 yppl, while Tennessee is allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.3 yppl. Alabama qualifies in a solid rushing situation, which is 111-65-2 and surprisingly my numbers actually show Alabama winning this game by about eight points, giving us great value on them. And that's before I add anything on for the great situation they are in. ALABAMA 33 TENNESSEE 20
WASHINGTON STATE -8 Oregon State
Oregon State comes in off their loss at home last week to Washington. I played Washington last week because they were coming off a big favorite loss at home the week before to Nevada. Now, Oregon State fits that same role. That situation is now 63-21-0 since 1988, including being 3-0 this year with the win last week with Washington, two weeks ago with Florida at LSU and three weeks ago with Kansas State at Texas. That situation includes a subset, which is 47-10 and 42-6 since 1991. A look at the numbers in this game also justify taking Oregon State. These two teams have played similar schedules, with OSU playing a little tougher schedule. They average 5.6 yppl against teams allowing 5.5 yppl, while WSU is averaging 5.7 yppl against 5.5 yppl, so these two teams are basically even on offense. On defense, OSU is allowing 4.5 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl and WSU is allowing 4.2 yppl against 4.8 yppl. The biggest difference between these two teams is OSU has turned the ball over this year and that has kept them out of the endzone. If they do that again, they will not win this game but, with the loss last week, they should be well focused and keep the turnovers to a minimum. So, assuming OSU doesn't lose the turnover battle badly, these two teams are pretty even and should play a close game, where points could be a premium. I look for something similar to last week, where Washington pulled off the upset. The 63-21-0 and subset of 42-6 is just too strong to pass up and is a must play each time it comes up. OREGON STATE 24 WASHINGTON STATE 23
YTD 19-28-1 -26.40%
2% SYRACUSE +7
2% MICHIGAN -5
2% MISSOURI +3.5
2% ALABAMA +3.5
2% OREGON STATE +8
Home team in caps.
PITTSBURGH -7 Syracuse
Very good match up between two offense that have played very well this year, using different strategies to get their work done and a defense that has not played that well this year. Syracuse likes to get it done on the ground, averaging 4.9 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 ypr and gaining 224 yards per game on the ground. The Pittsburgh defense has just not played that well this year, allowing 4.1 ypr against teams averaging just 3.8 ypr and 161 yards per game on the ground. For Pittsburgh, they get their damage done through the air, averaging 8.7 yps against teams allowing just 7.2 yps and they have averaged 292 yards per game passing this year. Syracuse has played the pass pretty well this year, allowing only 6.7 yps against 7.1 yps. Because of Syracuse's ability to rush the ball and Pittsburgh inability to sufficiently stop the rush, Syracuse qualifies in a solid 72-32-1 rushing situation. My numbers also support Syracuse to possibly win this game straight up, giving us great value on Syracuse. SYRACUSE 28 PITTSBURGH 24
MICHIGAN -5 Purdue
Great match up here. Everyone talks about how good the Purdue defense is but the Michigan defense has played equally well. Purdue is allowing 4.1 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl and Michigan is allowing 4.3 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl, making the two defenses pretty equal. Purdue has played a slightly tougher schedule. But the big difference between these two teams is on offense, where Michigan is averaging 6.0 yppl against teams allowing 5.1 yppl and Purdue is averaging just 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl, making their offense just average. Purdue beat Wisconsin last week but only averaged 5.1 yppl to Wisconsin's 5.6 yppl. The big difference in the game was Wisconsin starting qb Sorgi had to leave the game and Wisconsin's -3 turnover ratio. Michigan qualifies in a terrific situation that is not only 125-50-3 but also 7-1 this year. My numbers suggest about a nine point victory for Michigan and probably even a little more with the strong situation in their favor. Equal defenses, but the better offense at home wins this one. MICHIGAN 33 PURDUE 20
Texas Tech -3.5 MISSOURI
Always difficult to go against TT with their high flying offense but this is a great match up for Missouri. TT runs and throws the ball well but they hardly ever run, which is the weakness of the Missouri defense and it really isn't that weak, allowing 3.8 ypr against 3.8 ypr. The strength of the Missouri defense is their pass defense, allowing just 7.0 yps against 7.8 yps. Last week they allowed Oklahoma to only gain 8.2 yps and Oklahoma gains 9.3 yps on average. For the season, TT is averaging 8.6 yps against 7.9 yps. If TT is averaging about 0.7 yps more than their opponent and Missouri is allowing about 0.8 yps less, Missouri will probably hold TT to about 0.1 less than the average. That should be enough for Missouri to win this game, especially when you consider Missouri rushes the ball well, averaging 4.6 ypr against teams allowing just 4.2 ypr and now they'll face a bad TT defense. The TT defense is allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr and when Missouri decides to throw the ball, they should also have success against TT, who is allowing 8.4 yps against 7.5 yps. Missouri qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 111-65-2. My numbers support TT to win this game by about four points but when you add in the strong situation in Missouri's favor, this game becomes a pick 'em and the match up strongly favors Missouri. It looks like they may finally have set the total a little too high as well. The total is at 77.5 and my final numbers show about 75 points being scored. I wouldn't take the under but it may have finally caught up to them. MISSOURI 38 TEXAS TECH 37
Tennessee -3.5 ALABAMA
The hardest part about taking Alabama here is I know I am getting the short of it with the coach. I know my head coach is going to be out coached in this game. Still, I think the situation and the match up favor Alabama enough to warrant taking them. Tennessee is an over rated team. These two teams have played equal schedules so the numbers should help to tell the story. The offenses are about equal, with Tennessee averaging 5.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl and Alabama averaging 5.2 yppl against 4.8 yppl. But on defense the 'Bama defense has played better allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.5 yppl, while Tennessee is allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.3 yppl. Alabama qualifies in a solid rushing situation, which is 111-65-2 and surprisingly my numbers actually show Alabama winning this game by about eight points, giving us great value on them. And that's before I add anything on for the great situation they are in. ALABAMA 33 TENNESSEE 20
WASHINGTON STATE -8 Oregon State
Oregon State comes in off their loss at home last week to Washington. I played Washington last week because they were coming off a big favorite loss at home the week before to Nevada. Now, Oregon State fits that same role. That situation is now 63-21-0 since 1988, including being 3-0 this year with the win last week with Washington, two weeks ago with Florida at LSU and three weeks ago with Kansas State at Texas. That situation includes a subset, which is 47-10 and 42-6 since 1991. A look at the numbers in this game also justify taking Oregon State. These two teams have played similar schedules, with OSU playing a little tougher schedule. They average 5.6 yppl against teams allowing 5.5 yppl, while WSU is averaging 5.7 yppl against 5.5 yppl, so these two teams are basically even on offense. On defense, OSU is allowing 4.5 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl and WSU is allowing 4.2 yppl against 4.8 yppl. The biggest difference between these two teams is OSU has turned the ball over this year and that has kept them out of the endzone. If they do that again, they will not win this game but, with the loss last week, they should be well focused and keep the turnovers to a minimum. So, assuming OSU doesn't lose the turnover battle badly, these two teams are pretty even and should play a close game, where points could be a premium. I look for something similar to last week, where Washington pulled off the upset. The 63-21-0 and subset of 42-6 is just too strong to pass up and is a must play each time it comes up. OREGON STATE 24 WASHINGTON STATE 23
YTD 19-28-1 -26.40%
2% SYRACUSE +7
2% MICHIGAN -5
2% MISSOURI +3.5
2% ALABAMA +3.5
2% OREGON STATE +8
