Home team in caps.
Missouri -10 KANSAS
Kansas has the better offense, averaging a whopping 7.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.9 yppl. Their defense is certainly not as good, giving up 6.0 yppl against teams averaging 5.4 yppl but it's respectable enough, considering they are playing an average Missouri offense and defense. The Missouri offense is averaging just 5.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl and their defense is allowing 5.0 yppl against 4.9 yppl. I rate offenses and defenses and then group them. These two teams rate as average teams. Kansas has played the tougher schedule and yet they are getting 10 points (at home) and these two teams are about average. That's a good sign for the dog. Kansas also qualifies in a revenge situation, which is 151-86-4 since 1989. My numbers show Kansas winning this game straight up. KANSAS 35 MISSOURI 30
MIAMI-OH -7 Cincinnati
Always tough to take the favorite here, considering this is a pretty fierce rivalry game and Cincinnati is a very solid dog. Both teams defenses are above average, with Miami allowing just 5.7 yppl against teams averaging 6.0 yppl and Cincinnati allowing 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. But the big difference between these two teams is the offense. The Miami offense has been fantastic, averaging 6.0 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl, while the Cincinnati offense is averaging just 5.0 yppl against teams allowing 5.6 yppl. That's a big advantage for Miami. I was very impressed by the way Miami played against Northwestern two games ago. They pushed the Northwestern offensive lineman around all day long. Last week they jumped all over Colorado State and limited them to just 1.3 ypr. Miami is playing their first home game of the year after playing their first three games on the road. That sets them up in a 26-8-1 situation. Miami rates a better team for me, and they have played the tougher schedule. That's a good sign for a home team laying single digits. My numbers show them winning this game rather easily. MIAMI 32 CINCINNATI 14
MEMPHIS -15.5 Arkansas St
ASU laid an egg last week at Tulsa, losing 7-54, giving up 404 yards at 6.1 yppl to lowly Tulsa. Yes, ASU is probably better than that, but they are still not that good of a team. Memphis is 1-1 against Division IA competition with a solid win at home over Mississippi, 44-34, gaining 506 yards at 7.2 yppl and allowing Mississippi just 408 yards at 5.2 yppl. They lost at S. Mississippi but actually out played SMISS, by gaining 374 yards to only 307 yards and 5.0 yppl to only 4.1 yppl. Their problem was six turnovers that killed them. Coming off that loss, with a bye last week, sets up Memphis in a great fundamental rushing situation that is 72-23-2. The Memphis offense is above average, gaining 6.1 yppl against 5.8 yppl and their defense is above average as well, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.3 yppl. For ASU, their offense has been terrible, gaining just 3.8 yppl against 5.4 yppl and they allow 5.5 yppl against 5.0 yppl. My numbers favor Memphis by about 35 points. Plenty of value, a great situation on them and motivation for a win because they are coming off a loss. MEMPHIS 40 ARKANSAS STATE 3
NORTH CAROLINA STATE -18 North Carolina 57
Taking a look at the over in this game. It's very simple. Both offenses are above average and both defenses are below average. On top of that, both pass defenses are terrible right now. NC State is allowing 9.3 yps against 7.8 yps and NC is allowing 8.9 yps against 8.2 yps. With both passing offenses above average, they should both be able to move the ball through the air. The average points scored in a college football game are about 50-51 points this year. This total isn't too far above that. We have two offenses playing above average, two defenses playing below average and a reasonable total. Along with, my numbers predict close to 80 or more points being scored in this game. Yes, there have been some overtime games factored into those numbers but we still have plenty of breathing room if we take those numbers out. NC STATE 48 NORTH CAROLINA 33
UCLA -11 San Diego State 44
I played under in the UCLA game last week and still don't think it was a bad play from the fundamental aspect as to why I played the under. The real killer in that game was an interception return for a touchdown, three punt returns for a touchdown and another interception by UCLA, which was returned to about the five yard line. The stats in the game played out to about 42 points being scored but big plays did me in. I'll go right back to the under again this week. Both teams offenses are well below average and both teams defenses are well above average. UCLA is only averaging 3.7 yppl against teams allowing 5.0 yppl and SD State is only averaging 4.1 yppl against 4.7 yppl. On defense, UCLA is only allowing 4.3 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl and SD State is only allowing 3.2 yppl against teams averaging 4.1 yppl. SD State only allowed Ohio State to gain 3.8 yppl and they are a below average offense as well, averaging 4.5 yppl. My numbers suggest only about 25 points being scored in this game and as long as turnovers don't kill us again, I don't see this game going over the total. UCLA 17 SAN DIEGO ST 10
BEST BETS
YTD 4-11 -18.30%
2% KANSAS +10
2% MIAMI-OH -7
2% MEMPHIS -15.5
1% NC/NCSTATE OVER 57
1% SDST/UCLA UNDER 44
Missouri -10 KANSAS
Kansas has the better offense, averaging a whopping 7.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.9 yppl. Their defense is certainly not as good, giving up 6.0 yppl against teams averaging 5.4 yppl but it's respectable enough, considering they are playing an average Missouri offense and defense. The Missouri offense is averaging just 5.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl and their defense is allowing 5.0 yppl against 4.9 yppl. I rate offenses and defenses and then group them. These two teams rate as average teams. Kansas has played the tougher schedule and yet they are getting 10 points (at home) and these two teams are about average. That's a good sign for the dog. Kansas also qualifies in a revenge situation, which is 151-86-4 since 1989. My numbers show Kansas winning this game straight up. KANSAS 35 MISSOURI 30
MIAMI-OH -7 Cincinnati
Always tough to take the favorite here, considering this is a pretty fierce rivalry game and Cincinnati is a very solid dog. Both teams defenses are above average, with Miami allowing just 5.7 yppl against teams averaging 6.0 yppl and Cincinnati allowing 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. But the big difference between these two teams is the offense. The Miami offense has been fantastic, averaging 6.0 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl, while the Cincinnati offense is averaging just 5.0 yppl against teams allowing 5.6 yppl. That's a big advantage for Miami. I was very impressed by the way Miami played against Northwestern two games ago. They pushed the Northwestern offensive lineman around all day long. Last week they jumped all over Colorado State and limited them to just 1.3 ypr. Miami is playing their first home game of the year after playing their first three games on the road. That sets them up in a 26-8-1 situation. Miami rates a better team for me, and they have played the tougher schedule. That's a good sign for a home team laying single digits. My numbers show them winning this game rather easily. MIAMI 32 CINCINNATI 14
MEMPHIS -15.5 Arkansas St
ASU laid an egg last week at Tulsa, losing 7-54, giving up 404 yards at 6.1 yppl to lowly Tulsa. Yes, ASU is probably better than that, but they are still not that good of a team. Memphis is 1-1 against Division IA competition with a solid win at home over Mississippi, 44-34, gaining 506 yards at 7.2 yppl and allowing Mississippi just 408 yards at 5.2 yppl. They lost at S. Mississippi but actually out played SMISS, by gaining 374 yards to only 307 yards and 5.0 yppl to only 4.1 yppl. Their problem was six turnovers that killed them. Coming off that loss, with a bye last week, sets up Memphis in a great fundamental rushing situation that is 72-23-2. The Memphis offense is above average, gaining 6.1 yppl against 5.8 yppl and their defense is above average as well, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.3 yppl. For ASU, their offense has been terrible, gaining just 3.8 yppl against 5.4 yppl and they allow 5.5 yppl against 5.0 yppl. My numbers favor Memphis by about 35 points. Plenty of value, a great situation on them and motivation for a win because they are coming off a loss. MEMPHIS 40 ARKANSAS STATE 3
NORTH CAROLINA STATE -18 North Carolina 57
Taking a look at the over in this game. It's very simple. Both offenses are above average and both defenses are below average. On top of that, both pass defenses are terrible right now. NC State is allowing 9.3 yps against 7.8 yps and NC is allowing 8.9 yps against 8.2 yps. With both passing offenses above average, they should both be able to move the ball through the air. The average points scored in a college football game are about 50-51 points this year. This total isn't too far above that. We have two offenses playing above average, two defenses playing below average and a reasonable total. Along with, my numbers predict close to 80 or more points being scored in this game. Yes, there have been some overtime games factored into those numbers but we still have plenty of breathing room if we take those numbers out. NC STATE 48 NORTH CAROLINA 33
UCLA -11 San Diego State 44
I played under in the UCLA game last week and still don't think it was a bad play from the fundamental aspect as to why I played the under. The real killer in that game was an interception return for a touchdown, three punt returns for a touchdown and another interception by UCLA, which was returned to about the five yard line. The stats in the game played out to about 42 points being scored but big plays did me in. I'll go right back to the under again this week. Both teams offenses are well below average and both teams defenses are well above average. UCLA is only averaging 3.7 yppl against teams allowing 5.0 yppl and SD State is only averaging 4.1 yppl against 4.7 yppl. On defense, UCLA is only allowing 4.3 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl and SD State is only allowing 3.2 yppl against teams averaging 4.1 yppl. SD State only allowed Ohio State to gain 3.8 yppl and they are a below average offense as well, averaging 4.5 yppl. My numbers suggest only about 25 points being scored in this game and as long as turnovers don't kill us again, I don't see this game going over the total. UCLA 17 SAN DIEGO ST 10
BEST BETS
YTD 4-11 -18.30%
2% KANSAS +10
2% MIAMI-OH -7
2% MEMPHIS -15.5
1% NC/NCSTATE OVER 57
1% SDST/UCLA UNDER 44
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