College Ball Week 13

[Mr. Poon]

YTD Record: 63-47 for +30.15 units

was rolling right along until my 0-3 outing on Tuesday knocked me back 9 units. In a hurry so I don't have time for the detailed write-ups. Odd that I don't have at least one dog in my plays, but so be it, looking for the home teams to get it done.

Virginia -175 (vs. UNC) for 2 units - UVa is a better all around team. Matt Harvey (UNC's starter) is a good pitcher but if the UVa bats can chase them, the UNC bullpen has been a major issue all year.

GaTech -130 (vs. Miami) for 3 units - two good offensive teams but I like Georgia Tech's power a bit more and thing they have the better starting pitcher in Deck McGuire.

Arkansas -130 (vs. S. Carolina) for 3 units - two pretty even teams, but the starting pitching edge goes to Arkansas. Blake Cooper (USC starter) has been hit hard his last few outings and I would expect Arkansas to be able to get to him early.

GL guys

 

[ppabart]

Virginia -175 (vs. UNC) for 2 units - UVa is a better all around team. Matt Harvey (UNC's starter) is a good pitcher but if the UVa bats can chase them, the UNC bullpen has been a major issue all year.

:yup

 

[Mr. Poon]

1-1 yesterday winning GaTech but losing Arkansas. UVa/UNC delayed until today, playing it again:

UVa -185 (vs. UNC) for 2 units - little more juice but still confident in it.

Looking into the others and will at least have one other play.

GL guys.

 

[Mr. Poon]

adding one:

Miami +130 (@ GaTech) for 3 units - Miami's normal Friday pitcher Chris Hernandez is going tonight, and GaTech promoted their normal mid-week guy. Think the pitching advantage will be big in this one.

GL guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

good night last night going 2-0. Starting off with this early one:

UNC +155 (@ UVa) for 1 unit - starting pitching for today is pretty even with perhaps a slight edge to UNC. I'll take a small shot at the dog.

looking into the other games now.

GL guys.

 

[Mr. Poon]

adding:

GaTech -135 (vs. Miami) for 2 units - GaTech Sunday starter (Jed Bradley) has been pretty solid recently while Miami is throwing a solid pitcher, but a guy that hasn't made many starts. Getting to Miami's pen early should help GaTech in this one.

Arkansas -125 (vs. S. Carolina) for 1 unit - don't think Arkansas gets swept and putting a small play on them.

GL guys.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Updated Record: 67-50 for +34.90 units

1-2 yesterday with GaTech being the only winner. Arkansas and UNC's pens blow leads late. I keep getting snake-bit by UNC's pen when I play them as they gave up 3 in the bottom of the 9th to lose. one play today:

Arizona St. -185 (@ Zona) for 2 units - Zona doesn't have a listed starter and past their first two starters, they have big quesitons in pitching. ASU's starter Borup has performed well as of late. ASU has only lost 1 series all year and has not lost back to back games so I feel good about them bouncing back from last night's loss.

GL guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

ASU wins 4-2.

Updated Record: 68-50 for +36.90 units

The Arkansas/Oklahoma game should have a line on it tomorrow, so possibly a play there before the final weekend which starts Thursday.

 

[scott_baio]

nice job this year poon.

 

[Mr. Poon]

thanks for the kind words scott. Playing these two today:

Coastal Carolina -220 (vs. College of Charleston) for 2 units - really don't like laying much chalk when the dog has powerful and capable bats, but I believe Coastal will be pretty motivated. They are ranked #5 in the nation, have won 26 of their 27 with the only loss being to #1 UVa. They are in the mix for one of the 8 national seeds. However, due to their SOS, if they slip up they won't have that chance. Add in the fact that they lost earlier this year to C of C and 3 times last year, and you have quite a bit of motivation not to look past a non-conf midweek game. Coastal's offense is just as powerful as C of C's and they have an edge in D as well as the pen categories. Starting pitching also favors Coastal. They will throw Jim Birmingham to start. Birmingham has a 4.35 ERA; 1.39 WHIP; .239 OBA and 31 K's in 49 2/3 IP. He has been shuffled back and forth from a Sunday starter to midweek guy on a deep staff and is capable of getting the game with a lead to a talented pen. C of C counters with Josh Salay (6.64 ERA; 1.65 WHIP; .305 OBA and 42 K's in 39 1/3 IP). He has strikeout potential but Coastal and is a pretty disciplined team at the plate and should be able to handle him.

Arkansas +120 (@ Oklahoma) for 1 unit - I still believe Arkansas is a pretty solid team despite their recent struggles (5-8 in last 13). Sooners are a good club with power on offense and a pitching staff that has suprised this year. They will start Michael Rocha tonight (3.70 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; .242 OBA and 32 K's in 41 1/3 IP). Rocha is a solid pitcher but most of his work has been relief this year as he has only had 2 starts, with the last one being March 10th. Arkansas can match Oklahoma's offense and pitching. They will start Frosh Randall Fant (4.05 ERA; 1.08 WHIP; 24 K's in 33 1/3 IP). Fant has done well in his first season making 9 starts including 4 starts in conference play which is impressive. both pens are really good, so whichever team can chase the opposing starter first will likely come out on top.

GL guys

 

[BOBBYW]

THANX FOR THE PIX.....

THANX FOR THE PIX.....

DO YOU EVER LOOK AT FUTURES IN CBB TO WIN IT ALL?

MAYBE A FAV AND A LONGSHOT....

 

[Mr. Poon]

DO YOU EVER LOOK AT FUTURES IN CBB TO WIN IT ALL?

MAYBE A FAV AND A LONGSHOT....

They will only have futures once the CWS field is set. Typically will try to put some money on a middle of the road team from each pool.

Bad day going 0-2. Back at it on Thursday.

Updated Record: 68-52 for +31.50 units

 

[BOBBYW]

I WENT TO THE HILTON YESTERDAY AND THEY HAD A FUTURE SHEET FOR CBSB NATIONAL CHAMPION... THESE LINES WILL BE HIGHER SINCE THE FINAL 8 IS NOT SET...I HAVEN'T BEEN FOLLOWING AS MUCH AS YOU BUT I WATCH THE FINAL PLAYOFFS...JUST LOOKING FOR AN EARLY ADVANTAGE (YOU KNOW A FRESNO ST)...

 

[Mr. Poon]

I WENT TO THE HILTON YESTERDAY AND THEY HAD A FUTURE SHEET FOR CBSB NATIONAL CHAMPION... THESE LINES WILL BE HIGHER SINCE THE FINAL 8 IS NOT SET...I HAVEN'T BEEN FOLLOWING AS MUCH AS YOU BUT I WATCH THE FINAL PLAYOFFS...JUST LOOKING FOR AN EARLY ADVANTAGE (YOU KNOW A FRESNO ST)...

Would be curious what they were. List short enough to put on here? or if you want, get my email from Jack and send there. Obviously would get better odds on a sleeper now before they get to the final 8. Never seen futures at any online books until the CWS field is set, so would be curious what they have out there now.

 

[BOBBYW]

AZS-7/1...TEX-7/1...VA-8/1...LSU-10/1...UCLA-12/1...FLA-15/1...ARK-15/1...FSU-15/1...SOC-15/1...CSF-15/1...LOU-25/1...TCU-25/1...MIS-25/1...MIAF-25/1...CC-25/1...CLE-40/1...ORS-40/1...ARZ-40/1...OKL-40/1...VAN-40/1...UCI-50/1...VAT-50/1...RICE-50/1...STAN-50/1...KSU-60/1...NOC-60/1...CON-60/1...ORE-60/1...CA-75/1...TAM-75/1...AUB-100/1...BAY-100/1...ALA-100/1...THE REST 200/1
PIT...ECU...KEN...FRS...MAUREEN...NMS...KAN...NMX...NCS...OHS...WAS...MICH...OKS...UNLV...FIELD-25/1

 

[Mr. Poon]

Quickly my thoughts on those futures.

Of the major fav?s UVa and ASU are the best two teams in my mind. Both are solid at every facet and have the Omaha experience which is big. Forced to pick only one I would say UVa to a little more pitching depth.

Of the next grouping of teams with odds in the teens (i.e. 15/1) ? I like UCLA and still have a soft spot for Arkansas despite their late season swoon. LSU at 10/1 is nuts, too much respect for the defending champs.

In the next grouping of 20?s, Coastal Carolina is not only the best value of that group, but of the complete list as well. They are in line to be a national seed (top 8 of the 64) and would host not only the regionals but super regionals.

Longshots ? Virginia Tech at 50/1 is appealing. They are a solid team that has performed well this year.

In my mind if I was going to plunk down some cash on a future at this point and those odds I would go with Coastal, VaTech and maybe UCLA.

 

[BOBBYW]

THANX FOR YOUR INPUT.....