College Football 10/9-10/11

xerri

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posted record 37-25, +26.19 units

started a new thread b/c i put the wrong date on the other one

Michigan +1 -110, 4 units
Like Michigan to bounce back after this weekend's loss to Iowa. Still think Minnesota is highly overrated as the best teams they have faced are Penn St. and Northwestern who both stink while their non conference schedule is a joke playing teams like Tulsa, Ohio, ULL, and Troy St. Michigan has won the last 5 meetings rather easily and I expect a 10+ point victory in this one.

S. Florida -1 -110 3 units
This team continues to get no respect. They were a major moneymaker last year going 7-2 ATS last season while beating the likes of N. Illinois, Bowling Green, S. Mississippi, and Memphis at home and are 2-1 ATS so far this year beating Louisville in their last game. TCU has played no one so far with their best opposition being Vandy and Tulane thus far and they have struggled to score against some very poor teams including Army, Vandy, Arizona, and Navy putting up just 27,13,30, and 17 points in those games. Those are some of the poorest defenses in the country so I have no reason to believe they will do much against a very solid S. Florida defense. Like the Bulls to extend their 21 game home winning streak here.

UNLV +7 -110 3 units
Air Force has faced an extremely weak schedule thus far and I think UNLV's defense will give them some problems as they have a lot of speed which should help contain the option. Air Force's defense is not that good and I expect UNLV to put up their share of points. Think there is a good chance the Rebels win this game straight up so will take the points.

Wisconsin +2.5 3 units
Ohio St. has managed to survive some close calls thus far but I expect their winning streak to end here. They managed to get by some mediocre teams in San Diego St., Bowling Green, and NC St. winning each by 7 or less. I think Wisconsin is easily the best team they have faced and the best offensively. Wisky has several big play WRs and they got Davis back at RB to go along with Smith and Stanley who have been effective in his absence avg. 5.5 and 4.7 ypr. OSU has really struggled to score points and I expect the Badgers' defense to step it up at home. If Wisconsin can avoid the big turnovers I expect them to win this game relatively easily.
 

xerri

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Notre Dame +9.5 -110, 3 units
I think Notre Dame is better than they have played this year and think Pitt is still a little overrated. Notre Dame has faced some very tough defenses playing at Michigan and Purdue and they lost a close game to Michigan St. I have been unimpressed by the Panthers' defense as they have given up 26, 35, and 21 points the last 3 games playing Texas A&M, Toledo, and Ball St while the other game was against Kent. While Notre Dame has struggled on offense I think they will have some success here. Notre Dame still has 2 pretty good RBs and Quinn has some talent at QB. He should perform much better with the extra week of preparation. I don't think the Panthers' offensive players are anything special besides Fitzgerald. I wouldn't rank any of the defenses they have played thus far in the top 50 and I think they will have a little more difficulty against the Irish defense who has some good athletes they can put on Fitzgerald. Think there is a good chance the Irish win this game SU so will take the points and possibly the ML.

Illinois +3.5 -110, 2 units
I don't think these two teams are as far apart as people may think as they have played drastically different schedules. MSU has played 5 of their 6 games at home and the only good win was Iowa; however, that game was at home and Iowa was likely looking ahead to Michigan who they later beat. On the other hand, the Illini's losses are to Missouri, Cal, UCLA, Wisconsin, and Purdue. I believe all those teams could be bowling this year. 3 of those games were decided within a TD so I don't think Illinois is quite as bad as their 1-5 record. Books are begging for MSU money with this line and it seems like the public is all over them yet the line has actually gone down so think Illinois is the play here.
 

xerri

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CSU/BYU under 50.5 +100, 3 units
Think both teams will be running the ball a lot in this game. CSU's defense played much better last week and BYU's offense hasn't been that good for the most part up until last week when there were a number of huge plays. BYU has a lot of people back on defense from last year and has played well for the most part. I see around 45 points being scored in this one so will go with the under.
 
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xerri

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Missouri +8 -110, 2 units
Been waiting for this line to go up and will take it at 8. Nebraska has played a pretty favorable schedule thus far playing 4 of their 5 games at home. Only decent team they have faced was OSU winning 17-7 at home. I'm still not real high on Nebraska's offense so think this is a few too many points for them to be laying on the road. Really like Missouri's QB Smith who is avg. 84 rush ypg while completing 66% of his passes with 8 TDs and 0 INTs. Tigers nearly beat OU at home last season and I think they have a decent shot here so will take the points.
 

bear

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Xerri.....

Xerri.....

You add a lot to the forum!

Your picks look great to me ...lotta bounce, seems to me a lotta edge based on recent performances...
Looks like a good day!

gl
bear
 

xerri

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UCLA under 45 -109, 3 units
Arizona may not even score in this game so will go with the under.

Mississippi St. -3 -110, 3 units
Memphis' defense is not good and have never been impressed with Wimprine. 2 of their 3 wins are against Tennessee Tech and Arkansas St. MSU's major weakness is against the deep pass and Wimprine is not a real good down field passer. MSU should be able to run all over this defense so like them to get the win at home.

Iowa St./TT under 72.5 -109, 3 units
Think the number is finally too high even for the Red Raiders to go over. ISU is more of a running team this year and I expect them to try and play keep away from the Tech offense. I think they will be able to run effectively and think this game stays well under the number.

W. Michigan +9 -104 2 units
W. Michigan can put up points and think there is a decent chance they win this game SU so going with the home dog here. Public is on BG but line is moving the other way.

also two more units on Texas +6 -102 for a total of 5 units
 

xerri

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Florida +7 -110 2nd half, 4 units
Gators' defense is dominating the game and their offense is moving the ball pretty well. LSU's only points are off a punt return. If LSU gets any further behind Mauck cannot lead them back. Think Florida wins game SU.

Oregon/ASU under 28 -110 2nd half 3 units
Both teams running the ball pretty well and neither offense did much til the end of the half. ASU had a couple TDs early set up by INTs. Don't think they will have those opps. in the 2nd half so like it to go under.
 

xerri

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last ones for the night

Tennessee ML +100 4 units
Fresno St. +3.5 -110 3 units

also like ND at halftime, took the ML right before the game so won't be putting anymore on them though
 
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