College football 2022

[RBD]

As always, a few picks in a few different situational spots I track, plus analysis, stats, when-to-buy strategy, and money management tips.
And hopefully, by season's end, more W's than L's.

I employ a few different situational spots I've developed over the years. I will list all games that fit the parameters to qualify as a play.
I don't buy/recommend all the spots that qualify.
Why post the ones I don't buy? Record keeping purposes, and in case anyone is looking for edges on that particular game.

I have different goals.
Goal number one is - Do Not Lose Money.
Some will say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to make money!"
It's called a realistic goal.
Fact is, MOST bettors lose. They are loathe to admit it (especially on the internet, where almost everybody "wins") but it is a fact.
So, as the physicians' creed goes, "Primum non nocere" or ("First, do no harm" - in this case, to my bankroll.)

If I don't play to win money, then why bet?
I didn't say I don't wager to win, I said it's not my first goal.
My second goal is to win
My third goal is The Grail - 67%

There are other reasons I bet, and share my picks, thoughts, and advice.
It's a chess game to me - as an odds maker, can my #'s beat the books?
And I share because I am altruistic by nature.
If you're a winning, experienced bettor, congrats, I post for newbies and people who are struggling. Hopefully I can help them out.

Finished the reg season at 11-10 on investment buys last year (LY), 1-1 in bowls so no profits there, but gained a little $ with 6-2 on TV bets on the bowls.
After 38-29 in 2020, my two year combined record for reg season college football at MJ's is 49-39, grinding out a profit at 55%. Goal number 1 & 2 achieved.

Best play LY was the "New Play" (NP), Unders, it hit 33-22, a solid 60%, after 23-4 the previous year here, the first year I came up with it.
Two years tracking the play, NP Un is a combined 56-26, 68%.
Time to find out if the third season using it will win.

Here are the spots that qualify, thus far.
Remember - as lines move, some spots may be added or deleted from NP spots.

CP spots (LY, Over was 32-40, this spot usually avg's .500; Un was 38-27, 58%, this spot wins most years):
Over on Rutgers/BC, Boise St/Ore St, Kent St/Wash
Under on N Tex/UTEP, BYU/S Fla, Rice/USC, U Mass/Tulane

One of the NP qualifying parameters states: "Must have played at least one game" (meaning a team's first game of the season doesn't count.)
LY on weeks one and two there were four games that fit every criteria to qualify as a play except "Must have played at least one game."
I posted all four games. All four won (which would have made the NP Un 37-22, 63% LY.) Based on LY's results I'm tempted to drop that qualifier, but won't.
I won't count them towards the season record but I will list all the spots again this year. If they win this year maybe I'll drop the qualifier next year?

Here are the NP games:

Ov (NP Ov was 30-30 LY) in W Virg/Pit,
N Car/App St, Cin/Ark, Fla St/LSU

Un in N Mex/Min, Buf/Maryland, Mid Tenn St/J Mad, Fla Atl/Ohio, Rice/USC, Geo St/S Car, UL Monroe/Tex


Two early buys for now.
Missed out on the opening 64 in Buf/Maryland, grabbing it now before it drops any further.
And though Rice/USC technically doesn't qualify as an NP spot (because it's their first game of the season) games that fit both CP & BP spots for Unders LY were 10-2, 83%, so I'm buying it anyway, just on the strength of LY's #'s.

GOOD LUCK to all the MJ'ers this season.

Update, Saturday morning 8/27:
NP add-ons:
N'west/Neb Un, Nev/New Mex St Ov, Utah/Fla Ov,
N Car/App St Ov
Cut list:
Mid Tn St/J Mad, Geo St/S Car
Reminder: None of these count towards the season record as noted above. Information purposes only.

Update, Thur, 9/1: Cut list, W Virg/Pit, N Mex St/Minn (reminder - None of these count towards the season record as noted above. Information purposes only.)

Update on early buys:
bad move buying Buf Un @ 63'; 65 now, lost 1' pts;
great move buying Rice Un @64'; 61'/61 now, picked up a full 3 pts minimum
Final update, Sat 9/3:
Adds: Mid Tn St/J Mad (was on, then cut, now back on; first time that's ever happened)
Cuts: UL Mon/Texas


Buys:
Buf/Maryland Un 63'
Rice/USC Un 64'

 

[Tkj]

Good luck this season RBD!

 

[OtroPex]

GL RBD :toast:

 

[RBD]

Tkj and Otro - thanks, and good luck to you both.

Recap: 1-1
Record: 1-1

CP spots went Ov 1-2, Un 2-3
The games that just missed qualifying as NP spots went Ov 3-3, Un 1-3; So the qualifier "must have played at least one game" - like all parameters that must be met to qualify as a play - is there for a good reason: to acquire a high or low W %.

This week . . .

CP has Ov in Boise St/N Mex, Marsh/N Dame, Memphis/Navy, Hou/Tex Tech, Kent St/Ok, San Jose St/Aub
CP has Un in U Mass/Tol, New Mex St/UTEP

NP has Ov in W Mich/Ball St, U Mass/Tol
Un in Duke/N'west, Mary/Char, Wash St/Wisc, Kan/W Virg, Geo South/Neb, Az St/Ok St, USC/Stan, Col/AF, FIU/Tex St, N Ill/Tulsa, Haw/Mich

A whopping ELEVEN NP Un spots. In past years I'd be celebrating that many to choose from, but it's a new year, no data accumulated, don't know how these are going to play out in 2022, so proceeding with caution.

I have about 8 other situational spots I'm charting (too much info to post each week), two of which did very well in week one, will use those if it continues. One of them, a 6-2 spot, has two of the same plays as NP Un, Kansas and USC. BOTH teams were in high scoring affairs last week and this week's #'s look a little low to me, but I'll use at least one of them tomorrow.

Buys:
Kansas/W Virg Un 60

 

[LonghornMM]

Tkj and Otro - thanks, and good luck to you both.

Recap: 1-1
Record: 1-1

CP spots went Ov 1-2, Un 2-3
The games that just missed qualifying as NP spots went Ov 3-3, Un 1-3; So the qualifier "must have played at least one game" - like all parameters that must be met to qualify as a play - is there for a good reason: to acquire a high or low W %.

This week . . .

CP has Ov in Boise St/N Mex, Marsh/N Dame, Memphis/Navy, Hou/Tex Tech, Kent St/Ok, San Jose St/Aub
CP has Un in U Mass/Tol, New Mex St/UTEP

NP has Ov in W Mich/Ball St, U Mass/Tol
Un in Duke/N'west, Mary/Char, Wash St/Wisc, Kan/W Virg, Geo South/Neb, Az St/Ok St, USC/Stan, Col/AF, FIU/Tex St, N Ill/Tulsa, Haw/Mich

A whopping ELEVEN NP Un spots. In past years I'd be celebrating that many to choose from, but it's a new year, no data accumulated, don't know how these are going to play out in 2022, so proceeding with caution.

I have about 8 other situational spots I'm charting (too much info to post each week), two of which did very well in week one, will use those if it continues. One of them, a 6-2 spot, has two of the same plays as NP Un, Kansas and USC. BOTH teams were in high scoring affairs last week and this week's #'s look a little low to me, but I'll use at least one of them tomorrow.

Buys:
Kansas/W Virg Un 60

RBD, what is "CP" and "NP"? :shrug:

 

[RBD]

Longhorn,
I track and chart about a dozen different situational plays. I use abbreviations for the two I post here because it's too time consuming to write "Play #1," "Play #2" etc. so, to differentiate them from each other, I assign each play (or "spot") a 2 letter name, for reference purposes. (example: NP stands for New Play.)
I post records so anyone who is interested knows which plays might be worth playing ON or AGAINST.

Recap: 0-1
Record: 1-2

Updated charts:

CP Ov 3-6, Un 3-4

NP Ov 2-0, Un 5-7

No value, yet, not much data gathered. One of the posts I chart has a record of 0-5, might be worth a Fade if that continues.
Disappointed to see 5-7 for NP Under spots as it's been a steady provider of profits in both years I've used it. But, nothing lasts forever.

This week's spots.

CP has:
Over in Old Dom/Virg, Geo South/UAB, Liberty/Wake Forest, Ark St/Mem
Under in W Kent/Ind, Vandy/N Ill, Tex Tech/NC St, Pitt/W Mich, Fresno St/USC

NP has:
Over in N Dame/Cal, Tulane/K St, Pit/W Mich, Mia/Tex A&M, UTEP/N Mex
Under in A Force/Wyoming, Purdue/Syr, U Conn/Mich, Ok/Neb, N Tex/UNLV, Fresno St/USC, Mich St/Wash

Both have the USC game Un. LY (Last Year) when both plays had the same game, the record was 8-2, 83%. But I got burned on USC Under last week, and though this game is a TD higher than last week's # I'm not sure it's high enough. I'll pass.

No buys, yet. Will update Saturday morning.

 

[RBD]

Record: 1-2

Update: Cut list, Utep/N Mex no longer qualifies.

I'm going to ride some of the plays that have been my strongest over the last 2 years, NP Unders. They're at 6-7 after last night's win in Air Force/Wyoming, not a winning percentage yet but traditionally strong.

Buys:
Purdue/Syr Un 60
U Conn/Mich Un 58'
Ok/Neb Un 65'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-2
Record: 2-4

Last week was brutal, lost two games by a combed total of 1' pts.
U Conn/Mich was my fault, a bad buy, it was 60' when I capped it on Friday, bought it Saturday morning when it was down to 58'; they scored 59 and I lost by a hook.
A W on my charts but a loss in my pocket.

And then there was Purdue/Syr Un 60, which might be the worst bad beat of my life.
They had 9 pts at the end of the first quarter, 12 at the half. A 7 pt third quarter made it 19 pts combined.
So, the game had quarters of 9, 3 and 7.
They could score FORTY-ONE pts in the fourth and I'd STILL win my buy.
And . . . they put up 42.
9, 3, 7, and . . . 42.
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mostly Syracuse's fault. They had two possessions starting at the halfway mark of the fourth quarter when they should have been working on the clock, but kept passing the ball and went three-and-out, giving it back to Purdue. I watched in amazement, pain, and disgust as my easy winner went down. Unbelievable.

I'm tracking/charting nine different plays including the ones I post here, and they're all hovering around .500, giving me nothing to bet ON or AGAINST as fades.

Updated charts

CP Ov 6-7, Un 6-6

NP Ov 3-3, Un 9-10.

Tonight I have a play on Syracuse Un, but after what they did to me last week I don't trust them.

Buys:

Ind/Cin Un (wait to buy, # has been going up, I'll post my # when I buy it tomorrow)

 

[RBD]

Buys:

Ind/Cin Un 57'

Tex/Tex Tech Un 61'

 

[rocky mountain]

Recap: 1-2
Record: 2-4

Last week was brutal, lost two games by a combed total of 1' pts.
U Conn/Mich was my fault, a bad buy, it was 60' when I capped it on Friday, bought it Saturday morning when it was down to 58'; they scored 59 and I lost by a hook.
A W on my charts but a loss in my pocket.

And then there was Purdue/Syr Un 60, which might be the worst bad beat of my life.
They had 9 pts at the end of the first quarter, 12 at the half. A 7 pt third quarter made it 19 pts combined.
So, the game had quarters of 9, 3 and 7.
They could score FORTY-ONE pts in the fourth and I'd STILL win my buy.
And . . . they put up 42.
9, 3, 7, and . . . 42.
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mostly Syracuse's fault. They had two possessions starting at the halfway mark of the fourth quarter when they should have been working on the clock, but kept passing the ball and went three-and-out, giving it back to Purdue. I watched in amazement, pain, and disgust as my easy winner went down. Unbelievable.

I'm tracking/charting nine different plays including the ones I post here, and they're all hovering around .500, giving me nothing to bet ON or AGAINST as fades.

Updated charts

CP Ov 6-7, Un 6-6

NP Ov 3-3, Un 9-10.

Tonight I have a play on Syracuse Un, but after what they did to me last week I don't trust them.

Buys:

Ind/Cin Un (wait to buy, # has been going up, I'll post my # when I buy it tomorrow)

Hope you played Cuse under you were spot on!

 

[RBD]

Rocky,
Thanks thanks for stopping by.
Yes, I did play them, but used them in a teaser cuz I didn't trust them. Turns out I didn't need the extra points.

I have six other games in that same spot today (it has a small W %, but I'll play one or two of them)
Baylor/Iowa St, Tex/Tex Tech, Ore/Wash State,
Ark St/Old Dom, S Miss/Tulane, K St/Ok.
I'm already on the Tex/Tex Tech spot, will likely add K.State/Ok too.

Right now I'm adding a few more games that fit multiple spots I track.

Buys:

Clem/W Forest Un 57

Fla/Tenn Un 63

Ind/Cin Un 57'

Tex/Tex Tech Un 61'

 

[T OFF]

Thanks for all you do RBD!

always follow you brother …, and I cannot believe Syracuse last week. What a way to fucking loose :facepalm:


:0008

 

[rocky mountain]

Played Clemson and Florida games under, let's get em!

 

[rocky mountain]

Also played PSU game over 61.5 think PSU will score a bunch and CMU know how to score late with the reserves on defense. :0003

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-4
Record: 2-8

My apologies to anyone who played any of last week's buys.
Worst week I've had here. I'm in a 6 unit hole and though there's plenty of time left in the season none of the situational spots I track are profitable, which will make it difficult to climb out of.
I like a challenge, but this is going to be tough, so I'll fall back on experience in times like these - take a deep breath, cut down the # if plays I track/use, and don't chase.
Back with plays later this week if I have any.

 

[RBD]

Record: 2-8

Buys:
Baylor -2

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 2-9

Seven units down as none of my stuff is working.
I won't be posting any recommended buys because I have nothing of value to offer.
I'll post the spots I take, and they will of course count on my record, but I am not recommending them as buys like I usually do.

For now, I have one game in my pocket.
App St game fits a spot I have with a slight W for a Fade on Overs, and two other spots that have a slight W% for taking it Un, so I took App St/Tex St Un 55'.

Update: I took two more. This is the same spot I lost with last week, with Baylor, but it's 5-3 on the season, and 1-0 when it uses Dogs.
LSU +3, Kansas +7

 

[RBD]

Life happens, took me away for a little bit, time to get back to work.

Recap 0-1-1
Record: 2-10

Lost with LSU, pushed with K-State because I bought them early, didn't think that line would move off of 7, but, 7' was all over game day, could have had a win by the hook. But it's been that kind of season. Going to need a strong bowl season to save 2022.

My two year bowl record here is 4-3 on investment buys, 8-4 on TV/action buys. I reviewed last all season's log book and charts, going to start off by using what worked best.

​​​​​​Of the 9 or 10 bowl situations I track, one of the strongest is when a team has a better number in seven of the seven categories I chart head to head against their opponent. It's 11-5, 68% over the past 15 (16? I don't have my log books with me) years.
I didn't buy early and missed out on the best numbers, but I'm still playing them, investment buys.

Good luck to all the forum this bowl season.


​​​​​​Buys:
Marshall -10
Oregon -14

 

[RBD]

If anyone's looking for something for the second half, from my bowl systems, (Play Number Five, Second Half adjustment spot) take U Conn team total Under.
This spot is 32-17 over the last 14 or 15 years, 1-0 this season with the win on with Washington State team total Under in the second half.

I'm not on it because with the score at 21-0 I like my position on the full game at Marshall -10. And because I missed getting in on the Washington State spot because I was on the road (if I had banked a unit on that spot I'd be more likely to let it ride on this one.) And I don't like the number at 6'. Just posting an FYI in case someone's looking for plays to consider for second half action.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Bowl record: 1-0

Got a W with Marshall. Should have been a lot easier but in the third quarter head coach Huff went into the dreaded prevent offense, which is worse than the prevent defense. Stopped being aggressive, went vanilla, mostly running up the middle, same play over and over, almost blew the lead.

The second half play I noted in the post above lost, good move laying off it. It lost again with Bowling Green so 1-2 on the season 33-19 over the past 14 or 15 years.

I have an open play on Oregon, bought it early thinking it might go up, bought -14 could have gotten 13 today. We'll see tonight if it matters or not.

Bought UCF this morning, TV/action $, not an investment $ play because of the turnover differential of +15 for Duke.

UCF hits on five of the seven categories I rate teams on, including the three most important categories for me (strength of schedule, points for, and rushing offense.)
That play is 19-11 coming into this bowl season (14-15 years of data) and got a W on East Carolina last night.

UCF also fits two of the three wrong favorite systems I track. One was 7-0 last year, 1-1 this bowl season. The other I didn't track the full bowl season last year, came on to it late and it went 0-1, but it's a pretty hot 7-2 this season so I'll probably buy any games that fit for the rest of the season (next up will be Washington and possibly Maryland.)

​​​​​Investment buys: Marshall -10 W
Oregon -14

TV/action buys:
UCF +3