record 14-9 +8.2 units
My old thread disappeared. Added some more picks as well.
W. Michigan -2 -110, 5 units
Think WM is the much better team here and I expect this line to go up during the week. WM can really move the ball as they put up close to 400 yards against Michigan St. and over 400 yards against a very good Virginia defense. They should have no problem against this Ohio defense that gave up 48 points to Iowa St. and 42 points to Minnesota. Ohio is very inexperienced in the secondary and two LBs who were going to start this year have been out so their defense is not very strong. WM had the top defense in the MAC last year and is very strong on special teams especially in the return game so they should have a big advantage there as well. Ohio has a pretty good QB in Ray but not much around him. If they can contain Ray on the option the Broncos should be in pretty good shape and get an easy win. If Ohio gets behind they will have difficulty coming back late as they are not a very good passing team.
TCU -14 -120, 3 units
Gonna keep riding against Arizona until they prove something to me. They were again thoroughly dominated by a very avg. offensive team in Purdue getting beat 59-7 and the Cats have been outscored 166-30 over the last 3 games for an avg. deficit of 42 per game. TCU's defense is pretty good giving up just 17 ppg and just over 300 yards while UA is giving up an astounding 43 ppg and 457 ypg. While I realize Gunn is out at QB I don't think it will matter as TCU should run over this defense just like everyone else. As with Purdue, TCU's defense and special teams should give them the field position they need to put up enough points for the cover.
UCLA -10 -108 2 units
I don't really understand why everyone likes San Diego St. in this game. UCLA is in desperate need of a win after losing to Oklahoma and Colorado. SDSU has played E. Washington, Samford, and UTEP to go along with Ohio St. Granted they kept it close with the Buckeyes but they still had difficulty scoring and OSU's offense is not that good without Clarett and when Krenzel struggles as he did that day going 5 for 20. I watched this game last year and UCLA totally dominated in winning 43-7 at SDSU especially on defense and special teams as they had far superior athletes. That was when Hall, who is pretty good QB that transferred from Texas, was playing and they had 3 outstanding WRs in Tolver, Osgood, and Davenport who all graduated. I don't see the Aztecs putting up more than 7-10 points and like UCLA to roll to an easy home win.
Troy St. +13 -110 2 units
Public is big on Marshall this week after beating overrated Kansas St. Perfect letdown spot facing a nobody in Troy St. after the big win. Line is down from 13.5 to 12.5 at some places and I think this must be for a reason as this game may be closer than people think. Troy St. has a decent running game and defense and Marshall has played soft run defense in previous seasons so I think Troy St. can have some success.
Mississippi St. +14 -120 3 units
Again I think this is a good spot for a home dog with LSU coming off a huge win against Georgia. MSU has been a disappointment thus far as they failed to show up in the 1st half against Houston and Oregon while blowing a lead to Tulane in the final minutes. Yet they battled back in those games to lose by 7 and 8 after being down over 20 in both. MSU has some good skill players on offense and are capable of putting up points. I think MSU will be ready for the SEC home opener after starting the season 0-3 and LSU could be a little flat. Hopefully the Bulldogs will get a few calls from the homer SEC officials as well. I could actually see the Bulldogs winning this and may take a little on the ML as well.
Florida -9 -110 2 units
Kentucky has shown no ability to run the ball this year and if they are in 3rd and longs all day I think Florida will give Lorenzen a lot of problems. Florida has dominated this series and I think they have too much team speed for the Wildcats. I think Florida will get a lot of big plays on offense and special teams and like them to get a much needed and easy win.
Will wait to play these as I think I can get reduced juice at the same lines on Friday.
Navy +1 3 units
Navy appears to be much improved this season and I think they will beat the Scarlet Knights. Through 3 games they are allowing just 11 ppg and 300 ypg. Their defense did a very good job against TCU allowing 17 points in defeat. Rutgers' defense hasn't impressed me giving up close to 250 rush yards vs. Buffalo and close to 350 total yards against Army which are two of the worst teams in college football. Navy is avg. close to 350 rush ypg with a 5.1 ypr avg. I think they win this game by 10 or more.
Vanderbilt +7 3 units
I don't see much reason for the Jackets to be favored on the road against any SEC team considering the fact that they are avg. just 11 ppg and just over 250 total ypg. GT's RB is a walk on and their freshman QB has made some freshman mistakes with just 1 TD and 3 INTs while being sacked 13 times in 3 games. I think their is a pretty decent chance Vandy wins SU so will take the points here.
My old thread disappeared. Added some more picks as well.
W. Michigan -2 -110, 5 units
Think WM is the much better team here and I expect this line to go up during the week. WM can really move the ball as they put up close to 400 yards against Michigan St. and over 400 yards against a very good Virginia defense. They should have no problem against this Ohio defense that gave up 48 points to Iowa St. and 42 points to Minnesota. Ohio is very inexperienced in the secondary and two LBs who were going to start this year have been out so their defense is not very strong. WM had the top defense in the MAC last year and is very strong on special teams especially in the return game so they should have a big advantage there as well. Ohio has a pretty good QB in Ray but not much around him. If they can contain Ray on the option the Broncos should be in pretty good shape and get an easy win. If Ohio gets behind they will have difficulty coming back late as they are not a very good passing team.
TCU -14 -120, 3 units
Gonna keep riding against Arizona until they prove something to me. They were again thoroughly dominated by a very avg. offensive team in Purdue getting beat 59-7 and the Cats have been outscored 166-30 over the last 3 games for an avg. deficit of 42 per game. TCU's defense is pretty good giving up just 17 ppg and just over 300 yards while UA is giving up an astounding 43 ppg and 457 ypg. While I realize Gunn is out at QB I don't think it will matter as TCU should run over this defense just like everyone else. As with Purdue, TCU's defense and special teams should give them the field position they need to put up enough points for the cover.
UCLA -10 -108 2 units
I don't really understand why everyone likes San Diego St. in this game. UCLA is in desperate need of a win after losing to Oklahoma and Colorado. SDSU has played E. Washington, Samford, and UTEP to go along with Ohio St. Granted they kept it close with the Buckeyes but they still had difficulty scoring and OSU's offense is not that good without Clarett and when Krenzel struggles as he did that day going 5 for 20. I watched this game last year and UCLA totally dominated in winning 43-7 at SDSU especially on defense and special teams as they had far superior athletes. That was when Hall, who is pretty good QB that transferred from Texas, was playing and they had 3 outstanding WRs in Tolver, Osgood, and Davenport who all graduated. I don't see the Aztecs putting up more than 7-10 points and like UCLA to roll to an easy home win.
Troy St. +13 -110 2 units
Public is big on Marshall this week after beating overrated Kansas St. Perfect letdown spot facing a nobody in Troy St. after the big win. Line is down from 13.5 to 12.5 at some places and I think this must be for a reason as this game may be closer than people think. Troy St. has a decent running game and defense and Marshall has played soft run defense in previous seasons so I think Troy St. can have some success.
Mississippi St. +14 -120 3 units
Again I think this is a good spot for a home dog with LSU coming off a huge win against Georgia. MSU has been a disappointment thus far as they failed to show up in the 1st half against Houston and Oregon while blowing a lead to Tulane in the final minutes. Yet they battled back in those games to lose by 7 and 8 after being down over 20 in both. MSU has some good skill players on offense and are capable of putting up points. I think MSU will be ready for the SEC home opener after starting the season 0-3 and LSU could be a little flat. Hopefully the Bulldogs will get a few calls from the homer SEC officials as well. I could actually see the Bulldogs winning this and may take a little on the ML as well.
Florida -9 -110 2 units
Kentucky has shown no ability to run the ball this year and if they are in 3rd and longs all day I think Florida will give Lorenzen a lot of problems. Florida has dominated this series and I think they have too much team speed for the Wildcats. I think Florida will get a lot of big plays on offense and special teams and like them to get a much needed and easy win.
Will wait to play these as I think I can get reduced juice at the same lines on Friday.
Navy +1 3 units
Navy appears to be much improved this season and I think they will beat the Scarlet Knights. Through 3 games they are allowing just 11 ppg and 300 ypg. Their defense did a very good job against TCU allowing 17 points in defeat. Rutgers' defense hasn't impressed me giving up close to 250 rush yards vs. Buffalo and close to 350 total yards against Army which are two of the worst teams in college football. Navy is avg. close to 350 rush ypg with a 5.1 ypr avg. I think they win this game by 10 or more.
Vanderbilt +7 3 units
I don't see much reason for the Jackets to be favored on the road against any SEC team considering the fact that they are avg. just 11 ppg and just over 250 total ypg. GT's RB is a walk on and their freshman QB has made some freshman mistakes with just 1 TD and 3 INTs while being sacked 13 times in 3 games. I think their is a pretty decent chance Vandy wins SU so will take the points here.
