Only had one play last week and that was a loser on UAB, despite UAB winning the yardage battle but losing the turnover battle. Have had four plays this year - lost on a terrible play on San Jose against Florida, lost because of turnovers on Miami-Oh. and lost because of a safety and missed extra point on Kansas St against Troy St. Hoping for better luck today.
Miami-Oh -3 NORTHWESTERN
Northwestern has looked like a different team this year, when compared to last year. The Wildcats allowed 6.5 yards per play last year against teams who were averaging only 5.6 yards per play. After only two games this year, they are allowing 6.3 yards per play but against teams who are averaging 6.5 yards per play. In other words, they were below average on defense last year and are actually playing above average this year. Along with getting some injured players back, they have also moved some offensive players to the defensive side of the ball to help the defense. After giving up 476 yards at 6.4 yards per rush last year to Air Force, they allowed AF just 270 yards at 5.1 ypr last week. Northwestern actually controlled much of the game until three straight interceptions in the fourth quarter enabled an AF comeback. Those interceptions were turned into a touchdown (when returned 79 yards) and a field goal (when returned 14 yards to the NW 15 yard line). NW has allowed 42 points in two games this year and 19 of those points have been to turnovers so their defense is really playing much better. And their offense is extremely balanced right now, averaging 227 yards rushing and passing. They will take on a very good team in Miami-Oh. who lost to Iowa two weeks ago, 3-21 but played well with the exception of 4 interceptions, which either cost Miami points or put Iowa in position to get some easy points themselves. NW qualifies in a couple of terrific fundamental rushing situations, which are 108-62-2 and an even better 72-21-2 situation. They also return a multitude of starters, which sets them up in 43-16-1 and 58-29-2 returning starter situations. The lone concern in this game is the ability of Miami to pass the ball and the NW pass defense, which is allowing 9.4 yards per pass to teams who are averaging 9.1 yards per pass. Those 9.1 yards per pass have been achieved partly because they have played NW, but this would indicate their pass defense is only slightly below average. Miami's defense isn't that good either, 6.1 yppl last year to teams averaging 5.5 yppl and they allowed Iowa two weeks ago to gain 6.1 yppl, including running for 232 yards at 5.8 ypr. So, Miami should be able to move the ball against NW, especially through the air, but NW should have their way as well, and with a balanced offense, I believe they stand a better chance to keep their offense moving. AF is potentially a better team than Miami and they had AF beat last week. Miami presents a different problem than AF, but NW should be able to move the ball enough.
WAKE FOREST -1 Purdue
Purdue lost last week as -10 point favorites against Bowling Green. Meanwhile, WF was winning their second straight game as underdogs and decent size underdogs, at that. WF was out-gained again last week, 511-375 and 6.9 yppl to 6.1 yppl but were the benefit of +2 in the turnover department. Last year Purdue lost to WF as -10 point favorites, but badly out played WF from a yardage standpoint, gaining 477 yards to only 368 for WF and averaging 6.7 yppl to 4.5 yppl for WF. Turnovers did them in last year. NC State passed for 433 yards at 8.8 yps last week and I have to believe Purdue can do the same this week. The Purdue defense allowed just 4.8 yppl last year to teams averaging 5.4 yppl and they return most of that defense. Several players said they played with no emotion last week against BG. They said they just expected to win the game. Combined with last weeks lost, last year's loss and two straight WF upsets, I think Purdue will play with emotion this week. WF runs the ball about 72-73% of the time and Purdue allowed just 3.4 ypr last year against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. Last year, Purdue held WF to just 3.6 ypr, although they did gain 248 yards rushing, but on 69 plays, as they ran the ball 85% of the time in last year's game. This is a classic game of one team's strength running into the other team's strength. Purdue qualifies in a terrific 89-39-3 returning starter situation. And I believe the better defense wins this game.
Boston College -4.5 CONNECTICUT
Don't look now but UCONN has now won six straight games, dating back to last year. The smallest margin of victory during that span has been by 17 points with five of the six games against Division I teams. I realize UCONN has achieved their two wins this year against teams much worse than BC but this is a very solid UCONN team with a qb who may be playing in the NFL sometime soon. They are averaging almost 500 yards of offense in their first two games. Granted, they have done that against teams allowing about the same, on average, which makes their offense just about average. UCONN stayed within 8 points of BC last year, losing 16-24 as 32.5 point underdogs. UCONN is a better team this year while BC isn't quite as good, in my opinion, this year. The BC defense has played above average this year while their offense has been just about average. UCONN qualifies in a terrific 89-39-3 returning starter situation in this game. Could they lose this game and not cover? Most certainly. What would do them in? The mere fact that BC has played a much tougher schedule than UCONN and the line has finally caught up with them. There isn't much room for error in this game because of the line, seeing UCONN just about needs to win this game to cover. But, I like their momentum right now, combined with the situation and the fact they played BC very tough last year.
BEST BETS
YTD 0-4 -12.10%
2% NORTHWESTERN +3
2% PURDUE +1 (As a pick 'em or dog only - played Thursday at Pinnacle)
2% UCONN +4.5
Miami-Oh -3 NORTHWESTERN
Northwestern has looked like a different team this year, when compared to last year. The Wildcats allowed 6.5 yards per play last year against teams who were averaging only 5.6 yards per play. After only two games this year, they are allowing 6.3 yards per play but against teams who are averaging 6.5 yards per play. In other words, they were below average on defense last year and are actually playing above average this year. Along with getting some injured players back, they have also moved some offensive players to the defensive side of the ball to help the defense. After giving up 476 yards at 6.4 yards per rush last year to Air Force, they allowed AF just 270 yards at 5.1 ypr last week. Northwestern actually controlled much of the game until three straight interceptions in the fourth quarter enabled an AF comeback. Those interceptions were turned into a touchdown (when returned 79 yards) and a field goal (when returned 14 yards to the NW 15 yard line). NW has allowed 42 points in two games this year and 19 of those points have been to turnovers so their defense is really playing much better. And their offense is extremely balanced right now, averaging 227 yards rushing and passing. They will take on a very good team in Miami-Oh. who lost to Iowa two weeks ago, 3-21 but played well with the exception of 4 interceptions, which either cost Miami points or put Iowa in position to get some easy points themselves. NW qualifies in a couple of terrific fundamental rushing situations, which are 108-62-2 and an even better 72-21-2 situation. They also return a multitude of starters, which sets them up in 43-16-1 and 58-29-2 returning starter situations. The lone concern in this game is the ability of Miami to pass the ball and the NW pass defense, which is allowing 9.4 yards per pass to teams who are averaging 9.1 yards per pass. Those 9.1 yards per pass have been achieved partly because they have played NW, but this would indicate their pass defense is only slightly below average. Miami's defense isn't that good either, 6.1 yppl last year to teams averaging 5.5 yppl and they allowed Iowa two weeks ago to gain 6.1 yppl, including running for 232 yards at 5.8 ypr. So, Miami should be able to move the ball against NW, especially through the air, but NW should have their way as well, and with a balanced offense, I believe they stand a better chance to keep their offense moving. AF is potentially a better team than Miami and they had AF beat last week. Miami presents a different problem than AF, but NW should be able to move the ball enough.
WAKE FOREST -1 Purdue
Purdue lost last week as -10 point favorites against Bowling Green. Meanwhile, WF was winning their second straight game as underdogs and decent size underdogs, at that. WF was out-gained again last week, 511-375 and 6.9 yppl to 6.1 yppl but were the benefit of +2 in the turnover department. Last year Purdue lost to WF as -10 point favorites, but badly out played WF from a yardage standpoint, gaining 477 yards to only 368 for WF and averaging 6.7 yppl to 4.5 yppl for WF. Turnovers did them in last year. NC State passed for 433 yards at 8.8 yps last week and I have to believe Purdue can do the same this week. The Purdue defense allowed just 4.8 yppl last year to teams averaging 5.4 yppl and they return most of that defense. Several players said they played with no emotion last week against BG. They said they just expected to win the game. Combined with last weeks lost, last year's loss and two straight WF upsets, I think Purdue will play with emotion this week. WF runs the ball about 72-73% of the time and Purdue allowed just 3.4 ypr last year against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. Last year, Purdue held WF to just 3.6 ypr, although they did gain 248 yards rushing, but on 69 plays, as they ran the ball 85% of the time in last year's game. This is a classic game of one team's strength running into the other team's strength. Purdue qualifies in a terrific 89-39-3 returning starter situation. And I believe the better defense wins this game.
Boston College -4.5 CONNECTICUT
Don't look now but UCONN has now won six straight games, dating back to last year. The smallest margin of victory during that span has been by 17 points with five of the six games against Division I teams. I realize UCONN has achieved their two wins this year against teams much worse than BC but this is a very solid UCONN team with a qb who may be playing in the NFL sometime soon. They are averaging almost 500 yards of offense in their first two games. Granted, they have done that against teams allowing about the same, on average, which makes their offense just about average. UCONN stayed within 8 points of BC last year, losing 16-24 as 32.5 point underdogs. UCONN is a better team this year while BC isn't quite as good, in my opinion, this year. The BC defense has played above average this year while their offense has been just about average. UCONN qualifies in a terrific 89-39-3 returning starter situation in this game. Could they lose this game and not cover? Most certainly. What would do them in? The mere fact that BC has played a much tougher schedule than UCONN and the line has finally caught up with them. There isn't much room for error in this game because of the line, seeing UCONN just about needs to win this game to cover. But, I like their momentum right now, combined with the situation and the fact they played BC very tough last year.
BEST BETS
YTD 0-4 -12.10%
2% NORTHWESTERN +3
2% PURDUE +1 (As a pick 'em or dog only - played Thursday at Pinnacle)
2% UCONN +4.5
