I've been capping totals for 3-4 years with a power rating system, and came into this season off three very good years. But, the 2001/2002 season has thrown me for a loop.
Never (in the last four years anyway), have we seen such variability. The results are consistantly farther from my predictions, and from the lines posted than ever before.
In an average January over the last three years, we would see 10-15 games that fell 40 or more points from the over under prediction- and that's on almost 3000 games (Predicting an over-under on EVERY game). THIS YEAR there were 35!!!
How do we get results like last night's Utah game where past history, and power ratings make a game solidly in the 150's, that ends up at 100?
Any ideas? What is so different this year? If it was just that my numbers were off, I'd think I had a programming bug. But, the lines at Cascade suffer the same thing. HELP PLEASE?!
:shrug:
Never (in the last four years anyway), have we seen such variability. The results are consistantly farther from my predictions, and from the lines posted than ever before.
In an average January over the last three years, we would see 10-15 games that fell 40 or more points from the over under prediction- and that's on almost 3000 games (Predicting an over-under on EVERY game). THIS YEAR there were 35!!!
How do we get results like last night's Utah game where past history, and power ratings make a game solidly in the 150's, that ends up at 100?
Any ideas? What is so different this year? If it was just that my numbers were off, I'd think I had a programming bug. But, the lines at Cascade suffer the same thing. HELP PLEASE?!
:shrug:
