College World Series

[Fast Eddie]

Here are my lines (minus pitchers) for the 1st round games. Lines are generated from an overall rating. Below that are pitcher ratings for all the teams. You can adjust the lines based on which pitcher is better. We'll see if we can find any value.

I divided the pitchers in half based on innings pitched sorted by highest rating. First group has 32 +IP this season or more. Bottom group has below that.

Away-- Stony Brook
Home-- UCLA -319

Away-- Arizona
Home-- Florida State -117

Away-- Kent State
Home-- Arkansas -161

Away-- South Carolina
Home-- Florida -132

Rating - Year - Team - Player - IP - ERA - W - L
- - - - - - -
51.29 - 2012 - Florida State - Robert Benincasa - 36 - 1.25 - 4 - 1
47.21 - 2012 - Florida - Steven Rodriguez - 61.2 - 2.19 - 3 - 2
47.12 - 2012 - UCLA - David Berg - 68.1 - 1.58 - 5 - 3
45.88 - 2012 - Florida - Austin Maddox - 54 - 2.5 - 3 - 3
45.79 - 2012 - Florida - Greg Larson - 50.2 - 1.42 - 6 - 0
44.95 - 2012 - Arkansas - Cade Lynch - 47 - 2.11 - 3 - 1
44.46 - 2012 - South Carolina - Tyler Webb - 47 - 1.91 - 6 - 1
43.91 - 2012 - South Carolina - Colby Holmes - 74 - 2.8 - 7 - 1
43.84 - 2012 - Arkansas - Colby Suggs - 37 - 1.22 - 7 - 0
43.74 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Frankie Vanderka - 55.2 - 2.43 - 2 - 3
43.56 - 2012 - Florida - Hudson Randall - 93 - 2.61 - 9 - 2
43.25 - 2012 - Kent State - David Starn - 114 - 2.21 - 11 - 3
42.87 - 2012 - South Carolina - Matt Price - 70 - 3.47 - 4 - 4
42.78 - 2012 - Arizona - K Heyer - 138 - 2.28 - 12 - 2
42.61 - 2012 - Stony Brook - James Campbell - 55.1 - 3.09 - 5 - 0
42.38 - 2012 - Florida State - Brandon Leibrandt - 94.1 - 2.58 - 8 - 2
42.31 - 2012 - Arkansas - Barrett Astin - 54.1 - 2.15 - 3 - 5
42.28 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Evan Stecko-haley - 80.1 - 3.47 - 7 - 3
42.16 - 2012 - Arkansas - Brandon Moore - 73 - 2.71 - 5 - 2
42.1 - 2012 - Arkansas - Dj Baxendale - 96.1 - 3.18 - 7 - 5
42.09 - 2012 - Florida - Brian Johnson - 86 - 3.56 - 8 - 4
41.93 - 2012 - South Carolina - Michael Roth - 115 - 2.5 - 7 - 1
41.7 - 2012 - Arkansas - Nolan Sanburn - 39.1 - 2.52 - 4 - 1
41.48 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Brandon McNitt - 100.2 - 2.5 - 8 - 3
41.48 - 2012 - UCLA - Adam Plutko - 112.2 - 2.56 - 11 - 3
41.45 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Tyler Johnson - 97.2 - 1.94 - 12 - 1
41.3 - 2012 - Florida - Jonathon Crawford - 74.2 - 3.13 - 6 - 2
41.26 - 2012 - Arkansas - Ryne Stanek - 86.2 - 2.91 - 7 - 4
41.2 - 2012 - South Carolina - Jordan Montgomery - 66.2 - 4.05 - 5 - 1
40.99 - 2012 - UCLA - Scott Griggs - 36.2 - 2.7 - 3 - 1
40.66 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Joshua Mason - 35 - 3.34 - 3 - 1
40.65 - 2012 - Arkansas - Randall Fant - 51 - 3 - 2 - 2
40.43 - 2012 - Kent State - Ryan Bores - 104.2 - 3.35 - 9 - 3
40.16 - 2012 - Arizona - T Crawford - 35 - 3.09 - 1 - 1
40.04 - 2012 - Kent State - Casey Wilson - 33.2 - 3.74 - 1 - 0
39.85 - 2012 - Florida State - Mike Compton - 85 - 2.86 - 11 - 2
39.74 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Jasvir Rakkar - 47 - 3.83 - 6 - 2
39.65 - 2012 - Kent State - Tyler Skulina - 101.2 - 3.63 - 11 - 2
39.37 - 2012 - South Carolina - Evan Beal - 47 - 4.02 - 4 - 4
39.34 - 2012 - Florida State - Gage Smith - 49 - 3.12 - 5 - 0
39.25 - 2012 - Arizona - J Farris - 99 - 4.18 - 7 - 3
39.18 - 2012 - Arizona - K Wade - 118.1 - 4.49 - 9 - 3
39.05 - 2012 - Florida State - Hunter Scantling - 47.1 - 3.99 - 5 - 1
38.81 - 2012 - Kent State - Ryan Mace - 55 - 3.27 - 2 - 3
37.69 - 2012 - UCLA - Nick Vander Tuig - 103.1 - 4.35 - 10 - 3
37.54 - 2012 - Florida State - Scott Sitz - 58.2 - 3.99 - 3 - 3
36.67 - 2012 - Arizona - S Manthei - 35.2 - 4.29 - 6 - 4
36.66 - 2012 - Arizona - M Troupe - 32.1 - 3.9 - 4 - 1
35.87 - 2012 - Florida - Johnny Magliozzi - 34 - 5.03 - 4 - 3
35.78 - 2012 - UCLA - Zack Weiss - 69 - 4.04 - 3 - 2
35.71 - 2012 - Florida State - Luke Weaver - 38 - 5.68 - 1 - 0
35.51 - 2012 - UCLA - Grant Watson - 85.2 - 4.41 - 9 - 2
33.92 - 2012 - Kent State - Michael Clark - 33 - 5.45 - 3 - 4
33.56 - 2012 - Florida - Karsten Whitson - 33.1 - 3.51 - 4 - 0
33.04 - 2012 - Florida State - Peter Miller - 40.2 - 3.98 - 5 - 2
- - - - - - -
Rating - Year - Team - Player - IP - ERA - W - L
- - - - - - -
59.41 - 2012 - Arkansas - Derrick Bleeker - 1.1 - 0 - 0 - 0
54.06 - 2012 - Arizona - A Bill - 6.2 - 0 - 0 - 0
53.83 - 2012 - Stony Brook - William Carmona - 3 - 0 - 0 - 0
53.5 - 2012 - Arizona - M Lopez - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0
53 - 2012 - South Carolina - Ethan Carter - 10 - 0 - 1 - 0
46.94 - 2012 - Florida - Keenan Kish - 24.1 - 1.85 - 0 - 0
46.86 - 2012 - Kent State - Brian Clark - 28.1 - 1.59 - 5 - 0
46.65 - 2012 - South Carolina - Hunter Privette - 9.2 - 1.86 - 1 - 0
45.31 - 2012 - Florida State - Brandon Johnson - 14.1 - 3.14 - 1 - 0
43.66 - 2012 - South Carolina - Joel Seddon - 16.1 - 2.76 - 2 - 0
43.57 - 2012 - South Carolina - Nolan Belcher - 29 - 2.17 - 4 - 2
43.11 - 2012 - Arkansas - Michael Gunn - 14 - 2.57 - 1 - 0
43.04 - 2012 - Florida - Ryan Harris - 15.2 - 3.45 - 2 - 0
42.42 - 2012 - UCLA - Ryan Deeter - 28.2 - 0.94 - 1 - 0
42 - 2012 - South Carolina - Adam Westmoreland - 22 - 2.86 - 2 - 1
41.83 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Matt Gallup - 23 - 2.35 - 4 - 0
40.32 - 2012 - UCLA - Madison Poole - 2.2 - 0 - 0 - 0
40.25 - 2012 - South Carolina - Logan Munson - 8 - 4.5 - 0 - 0
39.38 - 2012 - Florida - Bobby Poyner - 22.1 - 3.22 - 1 - 1
38.73 - 2012 - Florida State - Mack Waugh - 26 - 2.42 - 3 - 2
38.5 - 2012 - Kent State - John Birkbeck - 14.1 - 3.77 - 1 - 0
38.48 - 2012 - Florida State - Bryant Holtmann - 23.1 - 3.47 - 2 - 0
37.79 - 2012 - Arkansas - Chris Oliver - 16.1 - 3.86 - 1 - 0
37.42 - 2012 - Florida - Justin Shafer - 6 - 4.5 - 0 - 0
37.42 - 2012 - Kent State - Josh Pierce - 27.2 - 2.93 - 1 - 0
37.39 - 2012 - Arkansas - Tyler Wright - 17.1 - 2.6 - 1 - 0
37.26 - 2012 - Florida - Daniel Gibson - 24.1 - 2.96 - 1 - 1
37.1 - 2012 - Kent State - Dan Kopcak - 13.2 - 5.27 - 0 - 0
36 - 2012 - Florida - Corey Stump - 4 - 2.25 - 0 - 0
35.66 - 2012 - Arkansas - Trent Daniel - 31 - 5.23 - 2 - 0
35.37 - 2012 - South Carolina - Patrick Sullivan - 23 - 3.52 - 0 - 0
35.36 - 2012 - Kent State - Tim Faix - 13.2 - 1.98 - 1 - 0
35.25 - 2012 - UCLA - Chase Brewer - 16 - 1.69 - 2 - 0
35.03 - 2012 - Kent State - Eric Dorsch - 20 - 3.15 - 1 - 1
34.21 - 2012 - South Carolina - Forrest Koumas - 25.2 - 4.56 - 2 - 2
33.83 - 2012 - Arizona - T Hale - 20 - 4.05 - 2 - 0
32.74 - 2012 - Arizona - Littleman - 23 - 6.26 - 0 - 1
32.51 - 2012 - Stony Brook - G. C. Yerry - 16.1 - 3.31 - 1 - 0
29.97 - 2012 - Arkansas - Greg Milhorn - 5.1 - 3.38 - 0 - 0
29.86 - 2012 - Arizona - L Long - 25 - 7.2 - 2 - 2
29.5 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Josh Barry - 8 - 5.62 - 1 - 0
29.26 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Zachary Uher - 7.2 - 7.04 - 0 - 0
29.06 - 2012 - Arkansas - Mark Reyes - 7.2 - 9.39 - 1 - 0
28.88 - 2012 - Florida State - Kyle Bird - 22.2 - 6.75 - 0 - 1
28.54 - 2012 - UCLA - Zack Ortiz - 12.1 - 2.92 - 2 - 0
28.29 - 2012 - Florida State - Brian Busch - 24 - 5.25 - 0 - 1
27.63 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Bryan Tatelman - 12 - 6.75 - 1 - 0
27.17 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Nick Brass - 3 - 9 - 1 - 0
26.63 - 2012 - UCLA - Eric Jaffe - 7.2 - 0 - 1 - 0
24 - 2012 - South Carolina - Drake Thomason - 1 - 9 - 0 - 0
22.8 - 2012 - Kent State - Dan Slavik - 23 - 9.78 - 0 - 2
9.21 - 2012 - Kent State - George Roberts - 2.1 - 7.71 - 0 - 0
-1.5 - 2012 - Florida State - Evan Geist - 1 - 18 - 0 - 0
-3.75 - 2012 - Arizona - Cunningham - 4 - 15.75 - 0 - 0
-6.5 - 2012 - UCLA - Shane Zeile - 1 - 9 - 0 - 0
-196.5 - 2012 - South Carolina - Vince Fiori - 0.2 - 13.5 - 0 - 0
-596.5 - 2012 - Arkansas - Jeff Harvill - 0.1 - 27 - 0 - 0

 

[Mr. Poon]

great info. Can you go into what goes into your rating for a pitcher? I'm assuming IP and ERA are big factors, but what else is there? Do you look at SOS at all? I would have expected Plutko to have been higher given his stats (2.56 ERA; .216 OBA 1.16 WHIP in 112.2 IP) while UCLA has the #1 SOS.

 

[Fast Eddie]

great info. Can you go into what goes into your rating for a pitcher? I'm assuming IP and ERA are big factors, but what else is there? Do you look at SOS at all? I would have expected Plutko to have been higher given his stats (2.56 ERA; .216 OBA 1.16 WHIP in 112.2 IP) while UCLA has the #1 SOS.

Pitcher rating as I like to say "I use basic, but important stats"

He had a better year last year. here's the stats, maybe hard to read. Less hits, ER, and BB with similar innings pitched. Rating then stats

Rating IP H ER HR BB SO
41.48 Adam Plutko 112.2 86 32 45 92 2012
45.81 Adam Plutko 107.2 73 24 24 92 2011

I do not use sos for the pitchers. You could if you wanted to. I choose not to. I rank the overall teams and give them a rating. Pitchers are separate.

 

[Mr. Poon]

For your lines that you put up there, I think the Arky and Florida lines will be close to that. Maybe a little higher on Arky.

I also expect UCLA to be closer to a -220 and FSU to be higher off of their performance this past weekend.

A thing to note about FSU is that outside of conference play, they didn't play a road game outside of the state of Florida. Also their offensive production was much lower in road games overall. They look like a great team on paper, but I sense they may have another early exit for Mike Martin.

 

[Nole]

They look like a great team on paper, but I sense they may have another early exit for Mike Martin.

:0039





I got the Noles Poon. Pick any team you want for a side bet?

Whichever team goes furthest?



No idea what we can wager. :shrug:




Sorry Fast Eddie to clutter your thread.




:0008

 

[Fast Eddie]

For your lines that you put up there, I think the Arky and Florida lines will be close to that. Maybe a little higher on Arky.

I also expect UCLA to be closer to a -220 and FSU to be higher off of their performance this past weekend.

A thing to note about FSU is that outside of conference play, they didn't play a road game outside of the state of Florida. Also their offensive production was much lower in road games overall. They look like a great team on paper, but I sense they may have another early exit for Mike Martin.

Just so I'm clear, I probably wasn't. Those projections aren't what I think the line will be or open at. They are what my overall ratings come up with.

For example if Florida St does open higher and I think he pitching match up is favorable for Arizona, I may take a shot with them.

If UCLA opens at -220 and I think they should be more and like the pitching I may play them.

The line numbers I come up with are just a guide and I'll tweak them game to game as results dictate.

If I really like a play and the line doesn't agree I'll play it anyways.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Nole - I'll post something down in the Sports Team & Fans forum. Think I will take the Gators, should get your blood boiling there. Will figure out a wager that will make it interesting.

Fast Eddie - I do realize that, was meaning the lines off of your ratings, as you clarified.

 

[Mr. Poon]

see a couple of sites with futures up...

To Win CWS:
Zona +350
Arky +900
Florida +250
FSU +250
Kent +1200
USC +600
Stony +1100
UCLA +600

To Win Bracket:
Zona +250
FSU +150
Stony +500
UCLA +200

To Win Bracket:
Arky +300
Florida +100
Kent +600
USC +300

 

[jbly99]

Yah...dont c the freshman starting pitching for Florida st coming up big in OHAMA...the good news is that no team on FSUs side has starters that blow u away or even scare u...plutko and heyer r good but not scary..After watchin most of these teams play all season and watchin the Brook during the post season I wouldnt be surprised at all to see stoney brook come out on that side. On the other side I think it comes down to who wins bt Roth and randell Sat nite...winner of sc/Florida on Sat wins that side imo.

 

[Mr. Poon]

FastEddie - hope you don't mind me posting this type of stuff in your thread. Just thought it would be useful to have it in one place. I'll put my plays in another thread later in the week.

I see starters for one game listed so far, FSU vs. Zona. It will be the Nole's Brandon Leibrandt vs. the Cat's Kurt Heyer.

 

[Fast Eddie]

FastEddie - hope you don't mind me posting this type of stuff in your thread. Just thought it would be useful to have it in one place. I'll put my plays in another thread later in the week.

I see starters for one game listed so far, FSU vs. Zona. It will be the Nole's Brandon Leibrandt vs. the Cat's Kurt Heyer.

Mr. Poon, no problem. Good stuff. post anything you'd like plays included.

 

[PlayWright]

I like Arkansas in their bracket as first out @ +175.

That means I like Kent State (call me Kent) in the opener, and next up is either Florida or South Carolina for the double whammy.

gl and thanks for starting a CWS thread.

cheers! opcorn2

 

[Mr. Poon]

PlayWright - does any book besides thegreek have those odds of being first eliminated?

 

[PlayWright]

I can use Greek with my local for college ball listed. I rarely see lines on college elsewhere as we usually use Carib. :shrug:

 

[Mr. Poon]

I can use Greek with my local for college ball listed. I rarely see lines on college elsewhere as we usually use Carib. :shrug:

That makes sense, was just curious as theGreek doesn't service US customers anymore. They were always the best for odds on Futures and timeliness of lines, etc. 5Dimes is a close second, but still not as good as what Thegreek offerred.