Colonial (Bank of America Colonial)

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Chad Campbell(20/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4-5-6) e.w. @ GolfingGods
- - The year began with the best putting of Campbell's career, and home in Texas he looked to be back to holing his full quota of putts at the Byron Nelson. Some less than stellar driving has had me shy away since his win at Bob Hope, but that tendency was not sighted by me last week, and his fine driving down the stretch on Sunday supports the decision I made on Saturday to put him on my team at Colonial. It appears Campbell's three wins on Tour came after he finished 3-9-2 the week immediately preceeding. No good reason why I sat by and watched the odds get cut from 25/1.

Also played Nick Dougherty(50/1) at Irish Open while 6 places available.

GL

 

[Another Steve]

Just got Home from the course. It is in Great shape, has to be better than last week.

Funny, already had Chad as one of my Plays. Be back when my Odds come up.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Jim Furyk to win 12/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Victor Chandler, Ladbrokes and BetDirect
Struggling to find any value in this week's odds and there is certainly little value in Furyk at odds of less than 12/1. But this is a much weaker field than last week with only Furyk (5th) and Toms (9th) of the top-10 in the World Rankings making an appearance this week. And he is in such form. He won the Wachovia Championship two weeks ago, had finished 2nd in the Heritage in his previous start, 22nd in the Masters and 3rd in the Players Championship in his two previous starts. He did miss the cut last week, but having won the week before, he was certainly opposable. He has a good record on a course that should suit his game and warrants favouritism.

Bo Van Pelt to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
Van Pelt has yet to win on Tour and it is a reflection of the poor field and its small size (currently 114 players compared to the 156 in normal Tour events) that he is 40/1. However, he did show good form during 2005 and has continued in the same vein this year: in the last three months, he has five top-15 finishes. And he has been getting closer to that maiden Tour victory: he held the lead after the cut in the Wachovia Championship two weeks ago before finishing 6th and was 8th at the cut last week before fading to finish 26th. So with his form reaching a peak at the moment, it only needs a decent course history to suggest that he is backable at these odds. With finishes of 5th and 17th in two appearances at Colonial, he is certainly does have a good course history and should provide some interest beyond the first two rounds.

Shigeki Maruyama to win 50/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BlueSq, UKBetting and Totalbet
Last week's return to form was very timely in terms of this event as it is one in which he almost always plays well. Take out his missed cut in 2004 and he has shot 70 or better in each of his last eleven rounds at Colonial or in 22 of 24 rounds since his debut in 1997. And as his strengths are his short game and his putting, it is no surprise that he should play better in events like The Colonial and the Byron Nelson Championship (winner in 2002) than on the TPC courses used on Tour. He improved his score in every round last week to finish 6th (he had been 8th with one round to play the previous week) and that should set him up nicely for this week.

 

[lostinamerica]

We missed you, Stanley!:mj06:

:box2:

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Adding . . .

Shigeki Maruyama(45/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods
- - Nothing will ever be easy, but Maruyama is not one of the hardest players on this Tour to cap, IMO. He tends to sustain his form, good and bad, over goodly intervals, and he tends to appear in the frame more regularly on certain types of setups. Positive indicators are certainly replacing weeks of struggling, and there's this quote from a couple of years ago: "I like Texas and I especially like Colonial Golf Course. It's like a Japanese golf course it's surrounded by trees, that's why I am probably having good results." . . . Kamikazeeeeee :sadwave:

Bo Van Pelt(40/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4-5-6) e.w. @ BetFred
- - Surely he's on the verge of rectifying his failure to finish in the Top 5 all season long. This has the look of one of several decent opportunities to do so in the coming weeks, but I'll still opt for taking a further cut from a not overly generous price in order to gain an extra place.

Jeff Sluman(125/1) e.w.@ Sportingbet
- - I literally told myself early this season, "Don't let yourself get fooled into backing that 48 year old." But Colonial is a course that favors experience and has been known for all sorts of valedictory performances. It certainly helps that the field is small and not particularly strong, and Sluman's pairing with Choi and Beem does strike me as a favorable dynamic. Sluman has won 5 of his 6 PGA Titles after the age of 39, and Colonial provides some amazing form figures by Sluman's career standards - but are they really surprising??? Lastly, the aura of Oak Tree is in the news through next week's PGA Seniors Championship and could conjure up a bit of some old magic in his bones . . . On the downside, I rightly or wrongly picture Sluman with a pretty straight ball flight, and included among Hogan's famous quotes is his remark, "A straight ball will get you in more trouble at Colonial than any course I know." More on the downside, my viewing of Sluman in 2005 featured moments of putting angst gutting runs of superb ball striking, and while I've not seen him play nearly as much in 2006, his stats suggest improved putting and fewer shots covering the flag . . . Flesch (the upcoming birthday boy on 5/23/06) and Estes are in a large pool of players that probably offer better value, but after seeing him interviewed on the range last week, I'm ignoring my own admonition and feeling OK about it.

GL

Jeff Sluman @ Colonial:
2005 32 68 70 68 70
2004 68 72 70 74 72
2003 03 68 68 67 65
2002 mc 70 74
2001 15 71 64 69 71
2000 13 69 68 67 71
1999 02 67 71 69 66
1998 03 67 67 66 69
1997 13 66 69 68 70
1996 02 69 67 70 68

 

[ridle]

Some 1st rnd bets, including some of those you tipped on the outright market - this time not so much about tee time but about previous low rounds here:

All 1/4 1-5 at Betdirect:
Sluman @80/1
Petrovic @125/1

All 1/4 1-5 at Betfred:
Flesch 66/1
Janzen 150/1
Triplett 100/1
Jobe 80/1
Senden 80/1

 

[Another Steve]

Was a Great day at the Course. Women were top notch as was the Beer.

Tid Bits

Toms was sick and didn't Play in the Pro-Am

Duval's Team was leading the Pro-Am at 17 under

Course is Perfect, Weather should be a No Rainer, will get Hot on Friday, mid 90

Clearwater putting for two hours, first Tourney back after Father's death.

First Tee at 7:30, Front and Back, I'll be there at 6:00 AM

 

[Another Steve]

Colonial NIT Plays

Colonial NIT Plays

Will Play a Larger Card, I'll be there to route them on.

Jim Furyk WINS BAC COLONIAL+12.00
Chad Campbell WINS BAC COLONIAL+20.00 (Now 12.00)
Mike Weir WINS BAC COLONIAL+30.00(Now 25.00)

Tim Herron OV/Carl Petterssonpick @-1.25
Mike Weir OV/Robert Allenby pick @-1.40
Stephen Ames OV/Rod Pampling-1.30
Bob Estes OV/Carl Pettersson-1.15
Jim Furyk OV/David Toms-1.50 (Sick Shot)

 

[Agent 0659]

E/W bet on Billy Mayfair 45/1

 

[Whalers Rule]

Peter Lonard 125-1 Golfinggods 1 unit e.w
Mark Brooks 1000-1 Ladbrokes 1/2 unit e.w.

Also like Ohern, Short, Lehman and Mccarron

 

[lostinamerica]

Adding . . .


Outrights:

David Duval(300/1) e.w. @ Sportingbet
- - This was part of my post on the Wednesday prior to the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic: "Foremost among my takes from watching the Sony telecast on Friday was David Duval impressing with a look of trust in his swing that appeared even more ingrained than I was anticipating on the heels of his recent play (7th at Dunlop Phoenix) . . . Of course there are still issues to confront, but at this moment, Duval is nothing close to lost in the wilderness; in fact, unless his back is a mess, he has to be quietly energized, which is the purest and best kind of mindset . . . Even while Duval was lost in a downward spiral, he was capable of amazing stretches with his short game" . . . So, moving ahead, when Duval's season went into a deep lull in Florida (i.e., one step forward; hopefully not two steps back), I made a research project of looking ahead to guess a good spot for his game to emerge again, and I came up with the Byron Nelson Classic; after Duval finished 22nd at Wachovia, I was definitely put off when he passed on Byron's tournament. But here he be at Colonial this week, and I think we are stuck like velcro . . . Our madjacksports correspondent on site in Dallas/Ft. Worth reports, "Duval's Team was leading the (Wednesday) Pro-Am at 17 under." . . . I didn't really need value to pull the trigger on this one, but I made sure to spread my wager around to catch either 1st Round Leader or Top 10 as well . . . As compared to the wager I worked up on Simon Wakefield, the characteristics of this play on Duval are much closer to wagers of mine from the past that have made it to the house . . . I think a step forward by Duval this week is about a 50/50 proposition.


Thursday 3 Balls:

Glover(+120) over DiMarco/Petrovic @ BetFred

Taylor(+15) over Cink/Gamez @ Bet365


GL

 

[veride]

Each-Way 1/4 1-5 :

K.J. Choi --> 45/1 GolfingGods
Billy Mayfair --> 50/1 Centrebet
Tim Herron --> 80/1 totesport
Joe Ogilvy --> 125/1 Stan James
Steve Lowery --> 150/1 Blue Square

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes
Van pelt +100 over Pampling @ Boyles
Sindilar -125 over Kaye @ Pinn

 

[Another Steve]

Tid Bits From The Course

Allem and Imada WD, Allem walked right off of 18 his 9th and into the club house

Toms still sick but shot a 2 under, I need to Play sick

One Hot Mother, will be Hotter tomorrow

Caddy fish Fry, some good stuff, Cink made an appearance

Jason Terry and Us get screwed

Duval was on the Board early but still finished Even

Tomorrow is Mago Day for me, will do the early Shift, then it's Colonial Party Time

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Post Round 1

KPerry 16-1 win only WSEX

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd props-Girs
Perry +1/2 over Campbell -110
Perry/Campbell over 24 1/2 (-125)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

prop totals
rd1 0-2

2nd rd props-Girs
Perry +1/2 over Campbell -110 loss (11-12)
Perry/Campbell over 24 1/2 (-125) loss 23

Hmm beginning to think the posting gods are pouncing.
24-6 on props last 2 weeks and post what I deem the 4 best and all lose 3 by (1/2) stroke.
Had scenerio today where all Perry needed was 12 to guarantee push--he's ave 14 his last 6 rds here finishing 3rd in girs and fairways hit last year and manages to hit only 43 % of fairways today. Last time he missed at least 12 girs here was in 2nd rd 84 in 20+ mph winds--such is life

 

[sports student]

3rd round plays:

Lonard -110 over Bjornstad (oly)
Zack Johnson -110 over F Jacobsen (bowmans)
Cink -110 over Pampling (bowmans)

Plays from a couple of places where in my humble opinion you can find some good lines especially in the last couple of rounds. Basically have better players regardless of what criteria you use according to Stan's stats, and in each case the weaker player had the better round in Rd2 .

 

[lostinamerica]

sports student - Good to hear from you!

Saturday:

Oberholser(+100) over Z.Johnson @ 5dimes

Villegas(+105) over Quigley @ 5dimes

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Saturday:

Cink(-110) over Herron @ thegreek

Campbell(-104) over Perry @ 5dimes

GL