Colorado -140

[katts]

...to win the series.

This is one of the few times this year that I see some value on this team.

Peter Forsberg is one big piece of the puzzle, no doubt about that. But this team has many more good players, including Patrick Roy, who is making me swallow my words back (I bitched against him at the beginning of the LA/Col series). He now has the best s% among all goaltenders in the playoffs (except Kiprussof who only faced 79 shots). I saw him smile yesterday (haven't seen him smile for a while) when he was giving an interview. His big smile on his face means a lot.

Now that the Avs took the lead 1-0 in the series, my estimated line is Colorado -210 (68%) so I'll take the gift at -140 here (for 1 unit) - one of the few times I'll lay that kind of money.

BTW happy mother's day to all mothers and hope all of you guys thought about something special. Talking about that, my mother is waiting for my big brother and I on the other side of the bridge, so... gone.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

katts:

Thx for your detailed analysis and informative posts.

It's obvious you put a fair amount of work into these picks.

Much appreciated. Think I might follow your lead on the 'lanche.

GL

 

[katts]

Chucky - thanks for the kind words.

The idea is quite simple: I take a lot from this site, and for that reason I feel like I must give to this site.

Despite all the bullsh!t I've been involved in lately, I just figured out that as long as I'll spend a good % of my time capping sports (especially hockey), this place will just be part of my life. Sometimes I'm wondering what exactly would be different if I had never found this site... But really I don't regret anything.

I'm here to stay; that simple.. well as long as MJ and IE will tolerate my *sometimes* unforeseeable attitude anyways. When I talk with friends / family about my favorite hobby, very often, whether they think that I'm a super-genius who'll become a millionnaire in less than 2 by gambling on sports, or whether they think that I have some huge gambling problems. It sometimes takes up to 3-4 times to make them understand that I'm nothing of that. But here, I don't have to explain it; I feel at home here. And that's probably the main reason why i love this site... instead of explaining what the "sports handicapping" concept is all about, I just share picks and information.

While I don't give a rat's behind -

to IE - of what people think of me or my handicapping approach, it's always nice to read kind comments. Thanks again and good luck for the rest of the playoffs

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx for the response.

I know where you're coming from. An outsider thinks of gambling and handicapping as one and the same. And of course, that's not the truth. Anyone can LIST some plays. Winners rationalize their plays and look for the edge.

GL, katts. See ya down the road.

 

[Anders]

Can you guys just give my wife a quick call and explain what you've just said here to her

Good luck guys

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Good point on the Colorado series number.
I've actually got a play on Colorado in game #2, at even money, so another look at the series price would make sense from my standpoint.
I even think my book is (was?) offering a better number than -140...I'll have to take another look.

How's this prediction: Joe Sakic wins the Conn Smythe, despite the Devils winning game #7 in O.T.

Just a thought.
Catch ya later.
Ex

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

P.S.

While I'm in my final week of exams right now, and don't have time for much handicap-philosophizing, you've got me curious (with the wink-wink, nudge-nudge) about what politically (?) incorrect strategies or systems you use.
I suspect (know) that my approach seems to go counter to the way that many others make their investments, and I'm interested in discussing several of these matters on this forum...just gonna hafta vait unteel arfter Fridon az me arcadeemic endayvor leengers fourth.

Anyway, katts, and other variational 'cappers, I'm sure you will all still be around once the madness temporarily ceases.
Obscure, perhaps, opinions are coming.
Just a warning for now.
Wish me luck (seem to need it more for grades in university than for handicapping sporting events -- and most of the world remains clueless!)
Ex

 

[katts]

Extrapolator - I don't think I use any "politically incorrect strategies or systems "

- well maybe except that S/T parlay thing but the page is turned in my case.. I won't talk about it anymore and most of the books no longer offer that option (guess I wasn't that wrong).

I was referring to the many money line dogs and series lines, like Pittsburgh +550 (series) or Pittsburgh +220 (tomorrow's game). A lot of people here (well especically in the other forums, like baseball or basketball) fear the dogs like hell, because they don't like to lose. Or they think that anything above - let's say - 70% means a "sure thing". It's obvious that you'll lose more ofen than not when betting on ML dogs, but I'm convinced that it's the best way to make money long term. When I post something like "LA to win the series +550", I really don't expect much cheers, since I'm going against the public. And I don't even expect to win... that's where I'm having some hard time to make myself clear at times. But long term, that's where the money is being made in my case. I don't need to score 55-60% to make money, I just need to hit a "certain" percentage depending on what I bet. I really don't care about, let's say, losing 10 in a row. I'll hit losing streaks more aften than anybody here, but believe me, when the winning streak hits, it hurts (in the good way). At the opposite, those betting the favorites will hit winning streaks more often, but when the losing streak hits, it also hurts, but this time in the bad way. It's just a matter of how you can manage your emotions. You can find nice values on both favorites and UDogs, but over the years, I realized that more often than not, when there's a value on a specific event, it's on the dog. Actually, when betting on football and basketball, we can call it a game of percentage, but when it comes to hockey, it's hard to talk about percentage in an objective way. I'll just call it a game of patience.

BTW extra - Just a couple of years ago I was still a student .. Really this is the tough part of the year - I wish you the best of luck - try to sleep at least 5 hours every day it's important - and go easy on the beer when everything's finished

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

In response to your response...
I only used the pol-inc. term 'cause I didn't know what you were referring to, but assumed that it was something that one of the administrators -- IE in this case -- viewed as counter-productive...or the like.
If you were just referring to playing doggies (which I suspect is not the case) then I would say that most "pros" (if there is such a thing) would be in agreement. As for parlays...well...my own thoughts will have to wait until later; let's just say that I'm way up on baseball parlays this season.
Also, I play my share of doggies, but play mostly faves, for baseball anyway. This has been extremely successful for me, so far this season, and I would be insane to change my methods at this point in time.
That being said, my 'capping strategy is probably way more _______ (fill in the blank with some other, more appropriate term than "politically-incorrect" -- counter-productive, or what have you) than yours, perhaps, by the views of many.

Mind you, many don't survive.
Thanks for the 5 hours sleep advice; I generally don't get that but can see some potential value in such a strategy. Especially as I'm writing a !@$$!@ final exam tomorrow at 8 30 am!
AAARRRRGGGHHH!

As I write this, the Avs just put one in to make it 3-1. Money looks safe.

Rock 'n Roll!
Will be in touch.
Ex

 

[katts]

but assumed that it was something that one of the administrators -- IE in this case -- viewed as counter-productive...or the like.

Just a quick answer to this one: not at all. That 'wink' to IE was just about an expression he used about a week ago that really made me laugh - nothing else