Colorado St./Virginia Write Up and Pick

InsiderEdge

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NCAA Football - it's about time!! First play of the year along with a little write up....

Colorado St. +2.5

Colorado St. welcomes the return of RB Cecil Sapp, who missed the entire 2001 season after getting a tumor removed from his heel. Sapp, who led the MWC in rushing in 2000, looks to be in even better shape this year than he did in 2000. A healthy Sapp along with Henri Childs, who ran for 841 yards last year and will get time as a wide out this year, means an opportunity for the passing game to open up with Bradlee Van Pelt at the helm. With 9 nine starts from last year under his belt and coming in as the starter in 2002, Van Pelt will be a better leader for this team. Always a threat to run himself, he needs to gain the confidence in his passing game. He worked the off-season on his passing, most notably, his accuracy. He completed only 48.5% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 2001 and those numbers should improve with more experience and hard work. The offensive line is strong with 3 returning starters, led by pre-season All-MWC Morgan Peters, and should be able to handle the very young and inexperienced Virginia defensive front. Virginia brings back no one from their front 3 of a year ago. The newcomers are bigger but lack any experience and it should take them some time to find their own. Look for the Rams to pound the ball until they get stopped plain and simple.

On the other side of the ball, Colorado St. returns 7 starters from last year, including all 4 linebackers who have at least a season of starting experience. This unit is being touted as one of the best in the country. On the line, Peter Hogan, a pre-season All-MWC defensive end, occupies one end and fellow senior Wallace Thomas will be on the right side. The backfield should be the only defensive question mark. Led by CB Dexter Wynn, the unit will feature 2 players in the safety spots who are converted from different positions. It will be key that they stop Virginia leading receiver Billy McMullen from a big game. Coach Al Groh and offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave have said they want a more balanced offense than last year?s pass heavy unit. The Cavs running game is young, led by sophomore Alvin Pearman, so don?t look for much success against the experienced Rams.

The Rams also bring back punter and Ray Guy Award finalist Joey Huber. He averaged 43 yard per kick, good for 5th best in the country. Colorado St. gets the nod in the ever so important field position battle. On the sidelines, Al Groh is respected as a coach and is doing wonders for Virginia recruiting, which makes the future look bright. However, in his 10th year, Sonny Lubick and his staff have the upper hand as they always have their teams prepared and there is never any quit from his players. The Rams have won at least seven games in a season for eight straight seasons, a school record.

Look for the Rams to control the clock with their running game, control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and win field position. With this the first of six consecutive non-conference games for Colorado St., a win here is big before their annual battle against rival Colorado. Rams by 13

Good Luck To All
:cool:
 

mw

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On the other side of the ball, Colorado St. returns 7 starters from last year, including all 4 linebackers who have at least a season of starting experience. This unit is being touted as one of the best in the country.
They allowed 420 yards per game last season! Against a MWC schedule.
However, in his 10th year, Sonny Lubick and his staff have the upper hand as they always have their teams prepared
That's more like it. Lubick has an excellent record ATS when he has more than a week to prep, including season openers.

But the central question for this game -- which you have not addressed -- is what the hell happened to CSU last year, when they were outgained by an average of 81 yards a game and were outgained in all but one of their conference games? Why should we believe last year was an aberration, and not a trend? If you don't address that question, you're not helping us.

If you're choosing between two teams that were outgained by 80 yards a game overall and were outgained in all but one of their conference games (which is the choice here), why would you back the team that achieved that statistical futility in a much weaker conference? Why will CSU be better this year? What happened last year?
 

mw

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No answers from me on this game.

I'll have answers to some similar questions before the Clemson-Georgia game on 8/31.
 

InsiderEdge

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Even with the yards given up, CSU was 42nd in scoring defense, not great, but not horrible. This is a very young Virginia team ? even though the Rams last year looked vulnerable on defense, experience on defense can go a long way when playing such a young team. Virginia ranked near the bottom in scoring and rushing offense last year in both the ACC and nationally. Even if Wade sits out at LB, the Cavs should have a tough go scoring enough points to win. Their MWC schedule last year wasn?t completely weak (63rd) as 4 of their 5 losses were against teams in the top 25. And as far as the MWC itself being much weaker, it was 7th compared to the ACC at 4th last year and this year is 7th vs 5th.
 
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