Some really good assistance there s7ven and some insightful points.
I think there is definite value in this play Nolan, although as you know I'm strictly a one-unit player (ok, with the odd rare 2-unit splurge
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Colombia's display in not conceding a goal during the tournament is highly encouraging towards an UNDER and while you could argue that it's hard to keep that record going, such efforts do build a great dose of confidence amongst the back four and keeper.
They also don't appeal as a team that can score heavily, with five goals for from three appearances. For example, the two they scored v Chile came from a) the penalty spot and b) in the 90th minute.
Peru's matches have featured more goals, with the majority coming in a 3-3 draw with Uruguay.
They have been hit hard in this match with injuries and suspensions.
Colombian coach Francisco Maturana should know plenty about how his opponents will play; having coached the Peru national side last year.
The hosts will be without strikers Arriaga, who has featured off the bench, Murillo and Castillo leaving probably Aristizabal up front by himself as s7ven said in a 4-5-1 formation.
I think the sudden-death nature of this encounter lends itself to an UNDER. While Sth American sides are often regarded as spectacular, talent-laden sides with brilliant attacking talent, it's often a reputation crafted solely on the individual abilities of the players. Matches between Sth American sides are often dull, cynical matches with a surfeit of fouls to deny the skillful ball-player creating goalscoring opportunities.
A couple of points to be wary about: Discipline at the tournament has been poor and we could easily again see at least one team down to 10 men relatively early in the match. That may not be a bad thing, as the understrength side usually tries to close the game down and strike solely on the counter-attack - which is how Peru are likely to play the game anyway. But Peru scored twice v 10 men against Uruguay while Colombia v Chile (2-0) saw the two sides play 10 v 10 for 56 minutes. There were also red cards for both teams in Peru's 1-0 win over Mexico.
Also, Colombia's "goals against" record could be slightly inflated by the fact they haven't played against anything startling up front eg no Salas or Zamorano for Chile.
The likelihood of this going over is probably based mostly on a Colombia win by 3-0, 3-1 or similar, but I expect the hosts to be a little cautious also in their approach.
When it comes to football wagers I usually steer clear. But the under 2.5 is, I believe, the best value bet around in the code. At -115 over 90 minutes (don't forget that, it's very important, extra-time or penalties will not kill the UNDER), there is certainly the value you seek here Nolan.
What book is this line at Nolan? If I'm this committed now, I better get a $ on
