Coming back with a couple of props tonight...
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
By the way, I mention this also with an eye towards props in future games...I played this small tonight, for just a unit, but anyone who's been paying attention knows you can make some decent scratch playing ON opposing SGs and scoring PGs with over props on OVER PTS against the Cavs. They have the worst defensive backcourt in the NBA by far.
Harden tonight
Harden tonight
I know his props are high and to play these over can seem like a tough pill to swallow, but I honestly don't think the books are paying enough attention to Harden's production output w/o CP3. Coming off of a "down" scoring game (just 26 pts) in his last outing vs a non-competitive Indy team that couldn't justify him staying on the floor long enough to produce, he is still averaging 35.8 ppg and 11.5 apg in the month of Nov. The totals on these props are based on his full-season averages and don't account for his current form. He is simply on tear right now and has shredded TOR every matchup against them the past 3-4 years, clearing these totals easily in each game. Add to it that he averages slightly more ppg at home under d'antoni 30.0 vs 28.1ppg in '16-'17 and 34.8 at home vs 26.8ppg so far in '17. Finally, any guard with a scoring pulse has torched the Raps so far this season, so my hope is that we are going to see a lot of this tonight:
May be adding to this later as more numbers get posted...
TOTAL o29?-125 J. HARDEN (HOU) PTS 2x
TOTAL o40?-115 J. HARDEN (HOU) PTS+AST 3x
gl
Harden tonight
I know his props are high and to play these over can seem like a tough pill to swallow, but I honestly don't think the books are paying enough attention to Harden's production output w/o CP3. Coming off of a "down" scoring game (just 26 pts) in his last outing vs a non-competitive Indy team that couldn't justify him staying on the floor long enough to produce, he is still averaging 35.8 ppg and 11.5 apg in the month of Nov. The totals on these props are based on his full-season averages and don't account for his current form. He is simply on tear right now and has shredded TOR every matchup against them the past 3-4 years, clearing these totals easily in each game. Add to it that he averages slightly more ppg at home under d'antoni 30.0 vs 28.1ppg in '16-'17 and 34.8 at home vs 26.8ppg so far in '17. Finally, any guard with a scoring pulse has torched the Raps so far this season, so my hope is that we are going to see a lot of this tonight:
May be adding to this later as more numbers get posted...
TOTAL o29?-125 J. HARDEN (HOU) PTS 2x
TOTAL o40?-115 J. HARDEN (HOU) PTS+AST 3x
gl
Utah minus Gobert plus strong run of recent production for Kanter. Kanter has always put up good numbers against his former team that drafted him. Gobert's absence a big effect on both offense and defense, maybe not fully accounted for in some prop totals. UTA's lack of size should allow Porzingis to step out and play on the perimeter more, allowing Kanter to clean up inside. Here's how i'm playing it tonight...
TOTAL o13?-125 E. KANTER (NYK) PTS 2x
TOTAL o24?-115 E. KANTER (NYK) PTS+REB 5x
TOTAL o17EV R. HOOD (UTA) PTS 1x
I was also looking at playing REBs over on Favors, but the 9/8.5s I'm seeing are a tad high and seem over-adjusted even though he's starting at C. I'd need a 7.5 or 8 to play that over. Combine that with the following stats and I'll just stick with the Kanter overs...
gl
TOTAL o13?-125 E. KANTER (NYK) PTS 2x
TOTAL o24?-115 E. KANTER (NYK) PTS+REB 5x
TOTAL o17EV R. HOOD (UTA) PTS 1x
I was also looking at playing REBs over on Favors, but the 9/8.5s I'm seeing are a tad high and seem over-adjusted even though he's starting at C. I'd need a 7.5 or 8 to play that over. Combine that with the following stats and I'll just stick with the Kanter overs...
gl
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CLE/CHA
CLE/CHA
Big night for Kemba (see post #6)... good scheduling spot with some rest, CHA coming home off 4 straight losses, his splits are strong at home... Cavs, well...
TOTAL o27?-140 K WALKER (CHA) PTS+ASSTS 2.5x
TOTAL o23?-115 K WALKER (CHA) PTS 1x
CLE/CHA
Big night for Kemba (see post #6)... good scheduling spot with some rest, CHA coming home off 4 straight losses, his splits are strong at home... Cavs, well...
TOTAL o27?-140 K WALKER (CHA) PTS+ASSTS 2.5x
TOTAL o23?-115 K WALKER (CHA) PTS 1x
Forgot to mention...
Forgot to mention...
I made a small play on the Knicks tonight. A little late, but they are available at a better price with live wagering now. I don't really like posting plays or even betting on them, but this looks like a good spot tonight and they've been strong against the number at home...
NYK -4 2x
Forgot to mention...
I made a small play on the Knicks tonight. A little late, but they are available at a better price with live wagering now. I don't really like posting plays or even betting on them, but this looks like a good spot tonight and they've been strong against the number at home...
NYK -4 2x
I'm looking at them now... checking on under 25 P+R+A. Not sure if i'll play under 11.5 pts yet, but thats also a bit high. Not sure why they continue to set his totals so high. Will post within a few minutes of game time if i make a play or two.
I probably made a mistake taking Lonzo over assists tonight, we'll see... but the general rule of thumb is play Lonzo's Points props under as long as it's in double digits and until further notice. He's not looking to score and when he shoots there is no confidence or fluidity in his shot. He's gone under his point total in 11 of 14 games and it will be 12 of 15 after tonight. Would I expect the unders on his scoring props to continue hitting at an 80% clip? Obviously, not, but I think it's safe to assume he'll go under in 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 5 games in the near term and as long as they keep putting his totals up at 10-11ppg. He may erupt with some good scoring games from time to time, but until he starts to show confidence in his shot or more aggressiveness around the rim in consecutive games, it would be wise to continue playing his points under.
