There was a website listed that included lines and the % bet on each team. Anyone know what I'm talking about and its NOT wager****.com Thanks
Concensus website
- Thread starter mjplus1
- Start date
bryanz said:
Last week they claimed 88% of the money was on ND at gametime, all the while the spread was busy dropping from 14.5 to 12. Thats just one example.
I think they use it selectively as another tool to move money where they want it.
bryanz said:
absolutely - all these so called %'s are bogus - and that public fade crap doesnt work - it is just as hard to pick a loser as it is to pick a winner! it all ends up at 50% best thing is to pick your shots with games YOU really like.
dont think they are bogus at all. It makes sense if you analyze the game and see where the public should be betting. If you follow the public and thier moves very closely and you can decipher who they will be betting on as soon as the line comes out. It is one of my top ways of handicapping my plays. I use 3 different sites and im not sure which is most accurate, but the majority of the time they are all very close to each other.
CWood97 said:
nightcapper said:
DO YOU GUYS HONESTLY THINK THAT THESE STATS ARE BOGUS???? JUST CURIOUS
I THINK THAT IS A LOAD OF CRAP
Cwood, the line can drop when the money is all over the FAV because money does not move the line. Read my last 4 post on line moves and reading lines,I have been right 4 st, the last two nights,the bears sunday and the thread were I thank Gman. Can't remember the game right now. Nightcapper, I do believe in the fade, yes I do. Tonight the public backs the dog based on some nice trends and last yrs game in a snow storm. Colo st had won 3 st before that and these two coaches know each other & Sonny has won 7 of the last 10 and has the more experienced team . It's funny how the Fav's were getting killed on wk day nights and now they are covering. If you look at the #'s it's almost always close to 50/50 by the end of the yr. The boys who set the lines are good @ getting most of us to go the wrong way. you bet the Fav you lose, bet the dog you lose . Fade the dog. COLO ST does what they have done 7 of the last 10 . Don't think the line comes into play. NOTE : I think the % #'s are real, it's the line moves that don't make sense because, Money does not move the line. NOTE : AF qb had the game of his life last yr and they have won 2 gms, WASH & slow small Sd St.
FWIW, I watched these %'s at Sportsbook last year, and found them to be extremely inflated compared with other consensus sites. I would be very careful placing too much emphasis on this as a "public play" indicator. When used with other consensus sites, it may be useful, but I agree with Bryan. You have to question the motivation of bookmakers to "help" a player out by showing where the money is. Just my 2 cents.
Noonan
Noonan
Danny,
You are 100% correct. Can't get into it but DO NOT use this as a method to determine consensus.
You are 100% correct. Can't get into it but DO NOT use this as a method to determine consensus.
Hyperion why can't you explain? I would like to hear what you have to say. I use those sites as a tool but not a big determining factor. What sites do you use?
thanks for any info
jc
thanks for any info
jc
fade , consensus , its laughable.
guarantee they use it to make us crazy.
pick the winner and forget about consensus.
guarantee they use it to make us crazy.
pick the winner and forget about consensus.
Why wouldnt they want to help us and let us know where the money is? Its called evening things out. Some of you act as if the books know who is going to win, THEY DONT. I have used it as a regular tool and found it to be pretty reliable fading the money. Not the % of people but the % of the money.
agent0659, thats not the % of money but rather % of moneyline bets....
anyways, i think it would be better to follow maybe how some of the books are handling their early and late action like Simon from Pinnaclesports pointed out here:
http://madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=205254
-------------
Florida (-4 +106) at Alabama
Urban Meyer has won his last 20 games as a head coach, a streak beginning on November 1, 2003 while coaching Utah. He hopes to earn his fifth win this season leading the Gators into Tuscaloosa. This match-up features two of the strongest defenses in the country; Florida allowing 232.5 yds/game, and Alabama permitting 223 yds/game.
Beware the early money, as it is usually sharp. This game was no exception with regular sharps all over Alabama early. This opened at Alabama +4 +105, and was bet down to +4 -116 (or +3.5 -110). We are seeing some opposition at -4 -101, but we are unsure which way this game will head closer to the weekend.
Notre Dame (+3) at Purdue
Weis's Irish have opened up their offense, averaging 295 passing yards per game, and 475 total yards per game. Notre Dame has not generated that much offense in any of the last 10 years. Purdue has pursued a more balanced attack, averaging 218 passing yards, and 210 rushing yards per game. Both defenses seem soft and each allows roughly 300 yards per game. Statistics are a dangerous tool to use for odds making in NCAA football, especially in the early season. Statistics get distorted when a high tier team plays down (like Notre Dame against Pittsburgh and Washington, or Purdue versus Akron).
We opened this game at Purdue -1.5. Around 5:00pm on Sunday, other books opened at Purdue -3.5.The sharp players moved in like vultures, picking off the gap. Able to take Purdue -1.5 -105 and Notre Dame +3.5 at other books, the market squeezed to a neutral point around -2.5 / -3. Due to our opener, a majority of the early money was on Purdue. Once the price stabilized, we were still seeing sharp action on Purdue at -2.5/-109 and -3/+107.
-----------------
the books now their percentages they need but more important they know who the percentages are so following sportsbooks can be nerve wracking trying to get into their minds and who the public is or is not...
you can follow all the early and late action here:
http://www.bestbettor.com/livelines.php?AllGames=&AllBettable=1&SportID=6
by clicking on the bracket beside the game and sportsbook you want.
as you can see the pattern Simon pointed out above also for the purdue game:
Line Moves
Date/Time of Line Visitor Line Home Total
09/29/2005 08:53:28 PM Notre Dame 3(+105) / -3(-115) Purdue o57.5 -110
09/29/2005 06:43:28 PM Notre Dame 3(+102) / -3(-112) Purdue o57.5 -110
09/29/2005 06:33:27 PM Notre Dame 3(+105) / -3(-115) Purdue o57.5 -110
09/29/2005 06:03:30 PM Notre Dame 3(+102) / -3(-112) Purdue o57.5 -110
09/28/2005 05:03:25 PM Notre Dame 3(-101) / -3(-109) Purdue o57.5 -110
09/28/2005 05:01:26 PM Notre Dame 3(-101) / -3(-109) Purdue o57 -110
09/28/2005 12:54:25 PM Notre Dame 3(-101) / -3(-109) Purdue o57 -101
09/28/2005 11:28:25 AM Notre Dame 3(+103) / -3(-113) Purdue o57 -101
09/28/2005 11:10:30 AM Notre Dame 3(+107) / -3(-117) Purdue o57 -101
09/28/2005 11:02:28 AM Notre Dame 3(+111) / -3(-121) Purdue o57 -101
09/28/2005 10:54:27 AM Notre Dame 3(-102) / -3(-108) Purdue o57 -101
09/28/2005 12:20:27 AM Notre Dame 3(-103) / -3(-107) Purdue o57 -101
09/28/2005 12:18:24 AM Notre Dame 3(-104) / -3(-106) Purdue o57 -101
09/27/2005 09:24:24 PM Notre Dame 3(-111) / -3(+101) Purdue o57 -101
09/27/2005 09:20:26 PM Notre Dame 3(-114) / -3(+104) Purdue o57 -101
09/27/2005 06:02:26 PM Notre Dame 3(-107) / -3(-103) Purdue o57 -101
09/27/2005 05:52:25 PM Notre Dame 3(-103) / -3(-107) Purdue o57 -101
09/26/2005 07:44:22 PM Notre Dame 3(-109) / -3(-101) Purdue o57 -101
09/26/2005 07:34:21 PM Notre Dame 2.5(+106) / -2.5(-116) Purdue o57 -101
09/26/2005 07:32:25 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-101) / -2.5(-109) Purdue o57 -101
09/26/2005 07:28:26 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-108) / -2.5(-102) Purdue o57 -101
09/26/2005 04:08:23 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-101) / -2.5(-109) Purdue o57 -101
09/26/2005 03:04:25 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-101) / -2.5(-109) Purdue o56 -105
09/26/2005 03:02:23 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-101) / -2.5(-109) Purdue o56.5 +104
09/26/2005 01:16:24 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-101) / -2.5(-109) Purdue o56.5 -105
09/26/2005 01:14:23 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-105) / -2.5(-105) Purdue o56.5 -105
09/26/2005 10:28:26 AM Notre Dame 2.5(+101) / -2.5(-111) Purdue o56.5 -105
09/26/2005 10:22:24 AM Notre Dame 2.5(+101) / -2.5(-111) Purdue o56 -110
09/26/2005 10:12:31 AM Notre Dame 2.5(+100) / -2.5(-110) Purdue o56 -110
09/26/2005 09:20:21 AM Notre Dame 2.5(+104) / -2.5(-114) Purdue o56 -110
09/26/2005 02:50:20 AM Notre Dame 2.5(-103) / -2.5(-107) Purdue o56 -110
09/25/2005 09:48:21 PM Notre Dame 2.5(+101) / -2.5(-111) Purdue o56 -110
09/25/2005 09:00:24 PM Notre Dame 2.5(+101) / -2.5(-111) Purdue o56 -105
09/25/2005 08:14:22 PM Notre Dame 2.5(+101) / -2.5(-111) Purdue o55.5 -114
09/25/2005 08:12:22 PM Notre Dame 2(+107) / -2(-117) Purdue o55.5 -114
09/25/2005 08:06:22 PM Notre Dame 2(+100) / -2(-110) Purdue o55.5 -114
09/25/2005 08:02:34 PM Notre Dame 2(-105) / -2(-105) Purdue o55.5 -114
09/25/2005 07:54:20 PM Notre Dame 0(+126) / 0(-138) Purdue o55.5 -114
09/25/2005 07:36:25 PM Notre Dame 0(+126) / 0(-138) Purdue o55.5 -105
09/25/2005 07:12:24 PM Notre Dame 0(+126) / 0(-138) Purdue o54 -105
09/25/2005 05:10:22 PM Notre Dame 0(+104) / 0(-114) Purdue o54 -105
09/25/2005 03:48:21 PM Notre Dame 0(+107) / 0(-117) Purdue o54 -105
09/25/2005 03:36:21 PM Notre Dame 0(+107) / 0(-117) Purdue o53.5 -113
09/25/2005 02:18:20 PM Notre Dame 0(+107) / 0(-117) Purdue o53.5 -108
09/25/2005 01:36:20 PM Notre Dame 0(+100) / 0(-110) Purdue o53.5 -108
09/25/2005 01:34:20 PM Notre Dame 0(+100) / 0(-110) Purdue o53 -117
09/25/2005 01:12:20 PM Notre Dame 0(+100) / 0(-110) Purdue o53 -108
09/25/2005 01:10:20 PM Notre Dame 0(+100) / 0(-110) Purdue o53 -105
09/25/2005 12:46:34 PM Notre Dame 0(+100) / 0(-110) Purdue o52.5 -110
09/25/2005 11:48:23 AM Notre Dame 0(+100) / 0(-110) Purdue o52.5 -105
09/25/2005 11:46:22 AM Notre Dame 1(-105) / -1(-105) Purdue o52.5 -105
09/25/2005 11:28:23 AM Notre Dame 1.5(-105) / -1.5(-105) Purdue o52.5 -105
09/25/2005 11:26:23 AM Notre Dame 1(-105) / -1(-105) Purdue o52.5 -105
09/25/2005 11:22:22 AM Notre Dame / Purdue o52.5 -105
anyways, i think it would be better to follow maybe how some of the books are handling their early and late action like Simon from Pinnaclesports pointed out here:
http://madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=205254
-------------
Florida (-4 +106) at Alabama
Urban Meyer has won his last 20 games as a head coach, a streak beginning on November 1, 2003 while coaching Utah. He hopes to earn his fifth win this season leading the Gators into Tuscaloosa. This match-up features two of the strongest defenses in the country; Florida allowing 232.5 yds/game, and Alabama permitting 223 yds/game.
Beware the early money, as it is usually sharp. This game was no exception with regular sharps all over Alabama early. This opened at Alabama +4 +105, and was bet down to +4 -116 (or +3.5 -110). We are seeing some opposition at -4 -101, but we are unsure which way this game will head closer to the weekend.
Notre Dame (+3) at Purdue
Weis's Irish have opened up their offense, averaging 295 passing yards per game, and 475 total yards per game. Notre Dame has not generated that much offense in any of the last 10 years. Purdue has pursued a more balanced attack, averaging 218 passing yards, and 210 rushing yards per game. Both defenses seem soft and each allows roughly 300 yards per game. Statistics are a dangerous tool to use for odds making in NCAA football, especially in the early season. Statistics get distorted when a high tier team plays down (like Notre Dame against Pittsburgh and Washington, or Purdue versus Akron).
We opened this game at Purdue -1.5. Around 5:00pm on Sunday, other books opened at Purdue -3.5.The sharp players moved in like vultures, picking off the gap. Able to take Purdue -1.5 -105 and Notre Dame +3.5 at other books, the market squeezed to a neutral point around -2.5 / -3. Due to our opener, a majority of the early money was on Purdue. Once the price stabilized, we were still seeing sharp action on Purdue at -2.5/-109 and -3/+107.
-----------------
the books now their percentages they need but more important they know who the percentages are so following sportsbooks can be nerve wracking trying to get into their minds and who the public is or is not...
you can follow all the early and late action here:
http://www.bestbettor.com/livelines.php?AllGames=&AllBettable=1&SportID=6
by clicking on the bracket beside the game and sportsbook you want.
as you can see the pattern Simon pointed out above also for the purdue game:
Line Moves
Date/Time of Line Visitor Line Home Total
09/29/2005 08:53:28 PM Notre Dame 3(+105) / -3(-115) Purdue o57.5 -110
09/29/2005 06:43:28 PM Notre Dame 3(+102) / -3(-112) Purdue o57.5 -110
09/29/2005 06:33:27 PM Notre Dame 3(+105) / -3(-115) Purdue o57.5 -110
09/29/2005 06:03:30 PM Notre Dame 3(+102) / -3(-112) Purdue o57.5 -110
09/28/2005 05:03:25 PM Notre Dame 3(-101) / -3(-109) Purdue o57.5 -110
09/28/2005 05:01:26 PM Notre Dame 3(-101) / -3(-109) Purdue o57 -110
09/28/2005 12:54:25 PM Notre Dame 3(-101) / -3(-109) Purdue o57 -101
09/28/2005 11:28:25 AM Notre Dame 3(+103) / -3(-113) Purdue o57 -101
09/28/2005 11:10:30 AM Notre Dame 3(+107) / -3(-117) Purdue o57 -101
09/28/2005 11:02:28 AM Notre Dame 3(+111) / -3(-121) Purdue o57 -101
09/28/2005 10:54:27 AM Notre Dame 3(-102) / -3(-108) Purdue o57 -101
09/28/2005 12:20:27 AM Notre Dame 3(-103) / -3(-107) Purdue o57 -101
09/28/2005 12:18:24 AM Notre Dame 3(-104) / -3(-106) Purdue o57 -101
09/27/2005 09:24:24 PM Notre Dame 3(-111) / -3(+101) Purdue o57 -101
09/27/2005 09:20:26 PM Notre Dame 3(-114) / -3(+104) Purdue o57 -101
09/27/2005 06:02:26 PM Notre Dame 3(-107) / -3(-103) Purdue o57 -101
09/27/2005 05:52:25 PM Notre Dame 3(-103) / -3(-107) Purdue o57 -101
09/26/2005 07:44:22 PM Notre Dame 3(-109) / -3(-101) Purdue o57 -101
09/26/2005 07:34:21 PM Notre Dame 2.5(+106) / -2.5(-116) Purdue o57 -101
09/26/2005 07:32:25 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-101) / -2.5(-109) Purdue o57 -101
09/26/2005 07:28:26 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-108) / -2.5(-102) Purdue o57 -101
09/26/2005 04:08:23 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-101) / -2.5(-109) Purdue o57 -101
09/26/2005 03:04:25 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-101) / -2.5(-109) Purdue o56 -105
09/26/2005 03:02:23 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-101) / -2.5(-109) Purdue o56.5 +104
09/26/2005 01:16:24 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-101) / -2.5(-109) Purdue o56.5 -105
09/26/2005 01:14:23 PM Notre Dame 2.5(-105) / -2.5(-105) Purdue o56.5 -105
09/26/2005 10:28:26 AM Notre Dame 2.5(+101) / -2.5(-111) Purdue o56.5 -105
09/26/2005 10:22:24 AM Notre Dame 2.5(+101) / -2.5(-111) Purdue o56 -110
09/26/2005 10:12:31 AM Notre Dame 2.5(+100) / -2.5(-110) Purdue o56 -110
09/26/2005 09:20:21 AM Notre Dame 2.5(+104) / -2.5(-114) Purdue o56 -110
09/26/2005 02:50:20 AM Notre Dame 2.5(-103) / -2.5(-107) Purdue o56 -110
09/25/2005 09:48:21 PM Notre Dame 2.5(+101) / -2.5(-111) Purdue o56 -110
09/25/2005 09:00:24 PM Notre Dame 2.5(+101) / -2.5(-111) Purdue o56 -105
09/25/2005 08:14:22 PM Notre Dame 2.5(+101) / -2.5(-111) Purdue o55.5 -114
09/25/2005 08:12:22 PM Notre Dame 2(+107) / -2(-117) Purdue o55.5 -114
09/25/2005 08:06:22 PM Notre Dame 2(+100) / -2(-110) Purdue o55.5 -114
09/25/2005 08:02:34 PM Notre Dame 2(-105) / -2(-105) Purdue o55.5 -114
09/25/2005 07:54:20 PM Notre Dame 0(+126) / 0(-138) Purdue o55.5 -114
09/25/2005 07:36:25 PM Notre Dame 0(+126) / 0(-138) Purdue o55.5 -105
09/25/2005 07:12:24 PM Notre Dame 0(+126) / 0(-138) Purdue o54 -105
09/25/2005 05:10:22 PM Notre Dame 0(+104) / 0(-114) Purdue o54 -105
09/25/2005 03:48:21 PM Notre Dame 0(+107) / 0(-117) Purdue o54 -105
09/25/2005 03:36:21 PM Notre Dame 0(+107) / 0(-117) Purdue o53.5 -113
09/25/2005 02:18:20 PM Notre Dame 0(+107) / 0(-117) Purdue o53.5 -108
09/25/2005 01:36:20 PM Notre Dame 0(+100) / 0(-110) Purdue o53.5 -108
09/25/2005 01:34:20 PM Notre Dame 0(+100) / 0(-110) Purdue o53 -117
09/25/2005 01:12:20 PM Notre Dame 0(+100) / 0(-110) Purdue o53 -108
09/25/2005 01:10:20 PM Notre Dame 0(+100) / 0(-110) Purdue o53 -105
09/25/2005 12:46:34 PM Notre Dame 0(+100) / 0(-110) Purdue o52.5 -110
09/25/2005 11:48:23 AM Notre Dame 0(+100) / 0(-110) Purdue o52.5 -105
09/25/2005 11:46:22 AM Notre Dame 1(-105) / -1(-105) Purdue o52.5 -105
09/25/2005 11:28:23 AM Notre Dame 1.5(-105) / -1.5(-105) Purdue o52.5 -105
09/25/2005 11:26:23 AM Notre Dame 1(-105) / -1(-105) Purdue o52.5 -105
09/25/2005 11:22:22 AM Notre Dame / Purdue o52.5 -105
I just think that if some kind of study was done,the more experienced & gamblers with the higher percentage win records would have more success with the fade. The more you know about the game and the surrounding games the better. What happens today has something to say about the upcoming lines and how they move them. If a line is right it really doesn't matter how they move it. A good line and I 'm talking about a good line for the house is one that confirms perception for most of the players. They had old chalk betters running with that dog AF.
