Conference Championships

[Smitty]

running very low on time, so gotta keep this brief.

cam jurgens, phil. center, is active, but not expected to play due to a back injury. his backup is inactive. this means dickerson, the LG, will start at C. this is big, because jurgens did a great job, stepping into kelce's shoes. suddenly the o-line, a strength of this team, is a bit of a question mark.

winds around 15 mph with gusts in the mid-upper 20's most of the game. may affect zane gonzalez, who has been iffy in the playoffs. he hit the upright on the 37-yarder that beat TB, and he missed a 44-yarder in the dome in detroit.

short and sweet... no way i can trust this philly offense laying nearly a TD. but i can't trust a mediocre washington team with a rookie qb and a porous defense. the one stat i'll throw out there... washington gives up 6.2 yards/play away from home. for comparison, carolina had the worst d in the league, and they allowed 6.0 yards/play.

parlay Phil (-2.5) & Under (49.5). (+125) 2X to win 2.5.
Washington TT under (21.5) 2.5 to win 2
Fowler Jr sacks over (.25) 2 to win 3.1
Luvu sacks over (.25) 2 to win 3.6

 

[LordofBalls]

I'm rooting Wash today.. hope u hit your props

GL Smitty

 

[Smitty]

i don't love the late game either. kc hasn't been great this year, especially offensively. for years, they've had a sneaky-good run offense. this year? they average 3.9 yards/carry. only LV was worse. and KC is 24th in the league, averaging 5.1 yards/play. for perspective, that's tied with Carolina. that's right, the chiefs averaged the same yards/play as the panthers. let that sink in. and kc's defense allowed 5.4 yards/play. that's 12th in the league, but 0.6 yards/play worse than last year. this chiefs team has been winning with smoke and mirrors. but i think most of us know that by now.

oh, and don't forget... it looks like Thuney is starting at LT again. this has been a problem spot for them all year. Thuney has been ok there, but he's a guard.

even with all that, i can't trust this bills team. turnovers have been a huge reason for their success, but kc doesn't turn the ball over. also, buffalo's defense was a lot worse on the road this year, giving up 6.1 yards/play (5.1 at home). in fact, buffalo wasn't great away from home. 5-4 straight up, and the only win over a playoff team was the shootout in the dome in detroit.

i've rarely bet on the chiefs the last couple years, and maybe i'll regret it today. but they've just been finding ways to win. until allen proves he can beat kc in the playoffs, my money is on the chiefs.

KC (-1.5) 4X
Under (49.5) 2.3 to win 2
1H under (24.5) 4.6 to win 4
Karlaftis sacks over (.25) 4 to win 5
Rousseau sacks over (.25) 2 to win 2.1

 

[LordofBalls]

that Karlaftis sack prop looks tasty!