Conference Tourney Week Woes

[walleyek]

Every year I tell myself, "self, do not wager on conference tournament games".... yet I always get sucked in. IMHO it's the most unpredictable, head scratching time of the year. If my winning percentage is 52%-55% during the season, I'd guess at conf tourney time I'm under 30 percent. Teams you think must win to get into the Dance fall on their faces. Teams that have won eight straight lay an egg in their first playoff game. It's been 15+ years and I still cannot get over the hump. So far, this tourney season my record is 2-14... abysmal. E.g. today a crap team, Cal-Poly is facing UCSB. I play the Gauchos minus 6 with confidence.... they get blown out 69-38.

Does anyone else suffer from this syndrome right about now in the NCAA season? Would like to hear thoughts and possible theories. I historically fare much better as soon as the Big Dance starts. Taking the rest of the weekend off because I just cannot find any sort of winner. What am I doing wrong? Is there a capper here who can say they kill 'em this time of the year?

 

[fla]

The NCAA Tourney is usually easier for me. Everyone is playing with equal rest and everyone wants to win. I pick games based on perceived motivational edges and actual lines compared to what I think they should be and then try to side with the sportsbook. Right now we have many problems because you really don't know who wants to play however that gets easier as the tourneys progress because they are still there. And none of these 'have to win' teams are good enough to trust completely. My amount per unit drops in college hoops until the real tournament based on all of the these factors. Also I refuse to lose more than $250 this weekend while my bankroll for the NCAA' s is much higher.

I 'think' this is what happens this weekend....

Bubble teams that can make a run (and not a complete list)

Nebraska
Tennessee
Baylor
Stanford
and maybe FSU

Teams already in that I think play well

Syracuse. Healthy again, historically good tourney team and Boeheim seems to have no love lost for the ACC.

Arizona. No idea why I took Utah yesterday. Remember Miller's press conference last year? I think he wants this tournament badly.

Louisville

Teams already in that may take a break?

Florida. A one seed is secure. Just a feeling.

Michigan. No idea why either.

Virginia also however going into the tourney with a two game losing streak may not be a good idea.

My advice. Just bet low and have fun. It's great TV viewing.

Good luck.