Confusing angles and trends that are ofthen times very misleading

[seelfin22]

puff puff pass best bet: raiders


Under is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 games following a bye week.
Under is 3-0-2 in Raiders last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 11-0-2 in Raiders last 13 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0-2 in Raiders last 6 vs. AFC.
Over is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 games in Week 4.
Under is 5-1-2 in Raiders last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 14-3 in Raiders last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Over is 9-2-1 in Raiders last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 21-5-2 in Raiders last 28 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-2 in Raiders last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 4-1-2 in Raiders last 7 games on Grass.
Under is 8-2-1 in Raiders last 11 games as an underdog.
Under is 4-1-1 in Raiders last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-2 in Raiders last 7 games overall.
Over is 6-2-2 in Raiders last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 21-7 in Raiders last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 26-10-3 in Raiders last 39 games following
Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 4-0 in Browns last 4 games in October.
Under is 3-0 in Browns last 3 games in Week 4.
Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Browns last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 7-0-1 in Browns last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 9-2-1 in Browns last 12 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 4-1 in Browns last 5 games following a bye week.
Under is 4-1 in Browns last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Browns last 9 games following a ATS win.
Under is 16-5-1 in Browns last 22 games overall.
Under is 6-2 in Browns last 8 road games.
Under is 12-4-1 in Browns last 17 vs. AFC.
Under is 14-5-1 in Browns last 20 games on Grass.
Under is 8-3-1 in Browns last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 12-5-1 in Browns last 18 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game
Raiders are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Raiders are 16-35-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Raiders are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall.
Raiders are 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a S.U. loss.
Raiders are 8-23-2 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Raiders are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog.
Raiders are 9-27 ATS in their last 36 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Raiders are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a ATS loss.
Raiders are 6-18-1 ATS in their last 25 home games.
Raiders are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a home underdog.
Raiders are 8-29-1 ATS in their last 38 vs. AFC.
Raiders are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in October.
Raiders are 13-54-1 ATS in their last 68 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Raiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games on Grass.
Raiders are 1-31-1 ATS in their last 33 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Raiders are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Raiders are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games following a bye week.
Browns are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Browns are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games in Octoboer

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

I know a lot of people references trends as reasoning for their bets, but I stopped looking at trends when the sportsbooks started mailing them to my house.

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

Ya..I agree. I just put trends in my threads AFTER I cap my plays myself just for fun. They are interesting to read, but it seems every game has good and bad trends for both teams, so what do you follow?

 

[Ernie_Money]

Nobody cares about those virtually meaningless trends.

Finding GOOD trends that are logical and have some teeth though is what matters.

I borrowed this trend (with some editing) from another forum:
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In 2002 the Houston Texans were added to the league to make 32 teams rather than the unwieldy 31, and since then, the byes have become more standardized.

The situational trend in play here is when a favorite by more than six points has a bye week the following week.

Teams in this situation are a combined 18-1 ATS since 2002, covering by an average of 9.7 ppg and they are 19-0 straight up, winning by an average of 18.7 ppg.

The lone blemish on this record came when the Bears got a TD at the 2:00 minute warning to get the backdoor cover vs the Vikings in Week 3 of 2004.

The reasoning seems pretty obvious. A team that is going into a bye week will want to spend the week enjoying a solid effort rather than listening to their coach bark at them and forcing extra practices. When a team is a heavy favorite, one of the main reasons to bet against them covering the spread is that they are look-ahead to a tougher opponent next week.

When a team is looking ahead to a bye, they can be 100% focused on their current opponent and play the entire 60 minutes.

This system has already produced TWO winners THIS season as the Chargers tagged the Titans 40-7 as a 11-point choice and the Cowboys beat Washington 27-10 laying 6?, both in week 2.

In Week 4, it is the Falcons who are a heavy favorite over the Cardinals with their bye next week. History is on the side of the Falcons.
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The Falcons of course mauled the Cardinals and the trend is now 19-1 ATS.

But this situational trend will be put the test this week as 4 games currently meet this criteria.

Colts -19.5
Patriots -10
Jaguars -7
Vikings -6

Now if the Vikes fall below 6 before game time, then they don't meet the criteria, but I simply do not see this trend going undefeated this week. Could be 2 losses here, in fact.