Consensus Becareful
- Thread starter djv
- Start date
Was that on all games? Or just games with a certain percentage?
Personally, if I were to use the consensus as a handicapping tool, I will only look at games where 75% of action is on one side, and only if there is meaningful action (i.e. if there are only 4 people on a game, 3 on one side, and 1 on the other, that sample really isn't big enough to warrant investigation. But if we see 17 on one side, and only 3 or 4 on the other, then I'll look to see if I can see why all that action would cause me to play the same side).
So only use the consensus as an add-on to your own 'capping, and don't rely too strongly on it to decide your picks.
Personally, if I were to use the consensus as a handicapping tool, I will only look at games where 75% of action is on one side, and only if there is meaningful action (i.e. if there are only 4 people on a game, 3 on one side, and 1 on the other, that sample really isn't big enough to warrant investigation. But if we see 17 on one side, and only 3 or 4 on the other, then I'll look to see if I can see why all that action would cause me to play the same side).
So only use the consensus as an add-on to your own 'capping, and don't rely too strongly on it to decide your picks.
As a rule consensus plays just don't work!
A very quick and certain way to go broke.
Been there...done that.
Now since I don't do my own capping/homework.
I look for other people who will let me look over their shoulders and CHEAT!
Yeah.. Baby!
It works!
AzRusty
A very quick and certain way to go broke.
Been there...done that.
Now since I don't do my own capping/homework.
I look for other people who will let me look over their shoulders and CHEAT!
Yeah.. Baby!
It works!
AzRusty
