Contrarian Betting

[Happy Hippo]

Recently, I have been seeing some posts about betting against the public and "square" betting. I would love to hear different opinions about this, but I really believe that it makes no difference if you are on the side of the "public" or not. There is a great scholarly article called "NBA Gambling Inefficiencies: A Second Look". They take the results of over 10,000 games in eight NBA seasons, and show that the lines have a fair market value. In fact, the average closing line was 5.89 and the actual difference in NBA games was 5.38. They also analyzed the amount of money and number of bets that were made on each side of a wager. "Taking the contrarian bet, and betting against market sentiment, was not profitable."

Since the 2006 season, betting against the public has yielded the following results:

Betting percentage 40%, 2227-2187 ATS, 50.5% win percentage ATS
Betting percentage 35%, 1551-1531 ATS, 50.3% win percentage ATS
Betting percentage 30%, 961-940, 50.6% win percentage ATS

Considering the break even point with typical vig is 52.38%, you are not going to win over the long haul by purely fading the "public".

When it comes down to it, WE ARE THE PUBLIC. You might be able to pick a little better than Joe, but you are still the public. And sometimes, Joe is right. Sometimes, Vegas sets lines to try to lure in the "sharp" bettor who might bet more money on games than Joe.

Personally, I don't use the public betting percentages as a way to gauge games. I realize that many people do that, and I would like to hear your defense. I am not saying you are wrong, but I think it is a common gambling fallacy that the "squares" are always wrong. For me, betting games should be based on a lot more than just fading the public, because the public are right 50% of the time, so it doesn't have a great bearing on the outcome. I just think it is wrong to say that when someone takes a side with a higher percentage of bets that the bet is "square". If it was that obvious, then being a winning sports gambler would be a much easier proposition. I try to bet on games where I believe I have a much higher chance of winning than 50%...

Thoughts or opinions?

 

[Chadman]

Great post, HH. In past years when plugged in to books and posters as a forum host I tried to dig deep on this issue and have serious discussions about who the public really is. Because in my view, the real public doesn't really bet that much. Not with sportsbooks, that is. I could never really figure out what the dividing line is for bettors, sharps, the public, etc. You see sportsbook managers posting information on sites that supposedly give you the "inside" moves and numbers. You have all kinds of motivations, interests, reasons for all kinds of scenarios. But nobody could ever really define for me what "the public" actually is.

To this day, I don't know. I definitely know many folks that only occasionally bet, would like to do it more, but are either afraid to or are unable to. But I also know many people who some probably consider to be a part of the public that are incredibly sharp in what they do.

Anyone ever seen a clear definition of what the public really is? I haven't, and I don't really even know. I know some great posters and handicappers, but don't know who is considered sharp or not, either. Does a sharp rating only apply to those who bet with a lot of money - or are supposedly just professional bettors that do nothing else? I dunno.

Again - great post. Happy Holidays!

 

[eeeerock]

I'm surprised by people that pay for these picks from handicappers.Some are better then others but by the time u add in paying for them how much are u actually up.I know that I have little luck tailing but still look at others who are hot.I try and offer my thoughts here and there but sure seems like everytime I post my thoughts they r no better then the next.If I don't post I'm better off,sounds crazy.
As far as fading the public and line drops I feel sometimes it is beneficial to fade the move but nothing is concrete,sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.The only thing I have that is working pretty good is my fade guy from work.He wins some but overall is losing.Just an average fan with a gambling problem,thinks he knows everything and just bets with what he feels is right.Has the same attitude at work,thinks he knows the way to do everything right even if it is opposite of what has worked.Enough rambling about nothing GL and always check your posts,continued success and happy holidays.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

post is good.

i have my own theories and won't clutter your thread. I will say that I laugh audibly when people throw the term public around. I love the posts on a random Saturday when people tout 75% of the public are on Mcneese St. That kind of stuff always gets me......I mean the public is never ever ever laying it down on Mcneese St., or their opponent....EVER...it's internet junkies, small time gamers, etc. Games like this on a busy slate is just guys juiciing it out. It's a battle with the books every day. Books have adjusted the public perception, none more clearer than this year in various sports. I suspect though if you didn't go back eight years and about 8 to 4 years ago this strategy would have produced much better results. These last couple years, there has been a real propensity by the books to not care about the public winning and really giving it to the sharps that haven't adjusted. There are only a few big money sharps, lots of real good cappers who are sharps that don't calll themselves sharps, and a whole herd of internet wanna be's, guys that love to act sharp, call themselves sharp, bet into sharp lines after the adjust and are just losers who can't look in the mirror and figure it out. The true winners have and will continue to adjust.


gl

 

[rocky mountain]

post is good.

i have my own theories and won't clutter your thread. I will say that I laugh audibly when people throw the term public around. I love the posts on a random Saturday when people tout 75% of the public are on Mcneese St. That kind of stuff always gets me......I mean the public is never ever ever laying it down on Mcneese St., or their opponent....EVER...it's internet junkies, small time gamers, etc. Games like this on a busy slate is just guys juiciing it out. It's a battle with the books every day. Books have adjusted the public perception, none more clearer than this year in various sports. I suspect though if you didn't go back eight years and about 8 to 4 years ago this strategy would have produced much better results. These last couple years, there has been a real propensity by the books to not care about the public winning and really giving it to the sharps that haven't adjusted. There are only a few big money sharps, lots of real good cappers who are sharps that don't calll themselves sharps, and a whole herd of internet wanna be's, guys that love to act sharp, call themselves sharp, bet into sharp lines after the adjust and are just losers who can't look in the mirror and figure it out. The true winners have and will continue to adjust.


gl

Well put!! I wish you would start posting your NBA plays again,your are always very solid:0008

 

[IE]

here is an article from pinnacle dated in 2005.

_______


In our last few articles, we have talked quite a bit about "sharp? money. A sharp or professional player is one we expect will win in the long-term. How can we tell if any given player will be a consistent winner going forward? The most accurate way we have found is to compare the line a player received when they made their bet in relation to our closing line.

If a player consistently beats our closing price at Pinnacle Sports, he is likely to be a long-term winner ? period. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player?s future winning potential than their historical win/loss record with the company.

For example, if our closing price on the Eagles was -3 -104 and a customer played -3 +105 earlier in the week - that was a sharp bet. When a player can anticipate the line movement and does this consistently over a series of 100 bets or more, that player is conclusively sharp and will be up substantially in the long run.

What?s the quickest way to identify a player that needs to adjust their style of betting? One who pays a bad price. If other online sports books offer the Eagles at -3 -120 and a player wagers there instead when a better price was available elsewhere such as -3 -104 at Pinnacle Sports, he is almost certainly not sharp. Even if he has been winning thus far, that player will probably lose over time.

 

[stockjockey]

There was a study done over nine college football seasons that followed the so called "wise" guy money moves or steam plays and over those nine seasons you would have lost a significant amount of money blindly following those moves. The fact is you were no better off betting against the public or following the so called "smart money" in college football. I believe this applies to ALL professional sports such as the NBA and the NFL. My theory behind that is a lot of these games are televised and sports information is so prevalent in this day and age. Syndicate groups and "sharp" money might have had their day against the books at one time but the sports betting marketplace is so HUGE today that it's lost it's effect. Plus the sportsbooks know where their weaknesses are, small college games, college basketball totals, etc. but that's why the limits are so low.

My advice....do your own handicapping, learn how to make your own line and play that line against the posted sports wagering line that's offered by your book by setting up parameters or a criteria that leads to success.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks for all quality contributions. Good points brought up by all.

BDB - I would love to hear all your theories. The purpose of this thread is to clutter it up!

I agree that there has to be constant adjustments made by cappers, especially in this information age where we have access to so much. Like I said, if it was as easy as "fading" or using line movement, then it would not be so hard to consistently pick winners...