Corona Morelia Championship

Stanley

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Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Morgan Pressel to win 25/1 e.w. @ William Hill, BetFred, BetDirect and Boyle Sports
Avoiding Ochoa this week who has a poor record in her home country despite playing against some very poor fields, of which this is another. So step forward 18-year-old Pressel who finished in the top-10 in three of her last four starts and recorded her best finish of the year with a 3rd place finish in the last Tour event. She achieved that when playing in the last group in the final round and so it appears that she has learned from the Safeway Classic in August when she entered the final round in joint 1st place, but shot 74 to finish 7th. She didn't play in the inaugural event last year, but this price more than compensates for that.

Stacy Prammanasudh to win 25/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes, BlueSq, BetFred and Boyle Sports
Prammanasudh did play last year and finished in 11th place (though 4th after three rounds), so that should carry some advantage into this week, but not as much as her current form: she has finishes of 2nd and 4th in two of her last three events. That 4th place finish was enough for her to bypass Sophie Gustafson and Julieta Granada and earn her place in the Samsung World Championship, which should be good for her confidence and does make 25/1 look a little large in this field.

Karine Icher to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Icher performed even better last year, finishing 2nd behind runaway leader Carin Koch. And that was in her first LPGA Tour start of the season! Now the event has been moved to later in the schedule and Icher comes into the event this year in a run of very consistent form , culminating in a 7th place finish last time out. She may be winless on the LPGA Tour so far (a five-time winner on the Ladies European Tour), but is value at these odds.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (2pts unless stated)

Mi Hyun Kim to beat Paula Creamer +114 @ Pinnacle
Very good odds on a player who finished ahead of Creamer in four of their last six common events and of those two losses, one was in the Women's British Open when Kim missed the cut in very different conditions to this week and the other was in the Wendy's Championship for Children when she had to withdraw because of a bad back. Otherwise, she has been far more impressive than Creamer who has not been quite the same player since suffering her wrist injury and last finished in the top-10 in North America back in July.

Mi Hyun Kim to beat Natalie Gulbis -135 @ The Greek
Gulbis is another player whose form has dropped considerably this year. After the starting the season so well, she has now recorded only one top-10 finish since May during which time she trails Kim 3-8-0 h2h and two of those three wins are explained in the match above. To add to Kim's edge in this match, Gulbis has not played for three weeks, withdrawing from the Longs Drugs Challenge two weeks ago only minutes before her 1st round tee-off with a staph infection in the middle finger of her right hand which made her hand numb.

Brittany Lang to beat Grace Park -135 @ The Greek [4pts]
Very easy to oppose Park who returned to the Tour two weeks ago after three months on the sideline with neck and back injuries. She shot 76-80 and missed the cut by a mile so Lang should really have little to do to win this match.
 

Stanley

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Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; -2.28pts

Pressel 5th
Prammanasudh 10th
Icher 33rd

Both Pressel and Prammanasudh held the lead during the 2nd round, but it was Ochoa who took control of the event on that day and never looked under threat thereafter. Should have still earned a profit on these plays though, but Prammanasudh double-bogeyed down the stretch and finished one shot out of the top-5, while Pressel had to share 5th place with four others after taking six on the 16th hole on Sunday.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 2-1; +4.00pts

Kim/Creamer LOST by 10
Kim/Gulbis WON (Gulbis disqualified)
Lang/Park WON by 14

The only set of profitable plays all week.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 13-34; -4.17pts
Matchups: 31-24; +1.82pts
 
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