CP update

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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Canada
CP broke up into 5 companies here is how they are doing:
Encana: Pan Canadian and Alberta Energy merged to form Encana. The stock is up from the low $40/$42 cdn. trading at $47.90. still believe this stock should trade at over $50 cdn./$55.cdn. good oil and natural gas exposure, though production growth will probably be 5-8% a year (over the next 3 years). Encana is a way to play higher natural gas prices. should earn over $3.50/$3.80 this year in earnings so not an expensive stock.

CP ships I sold all of my CP ships as it went on a run over $22 dollars, then it fell back to $18 and now trades at $20.07cdn. $13.15US earings should be over $1 this year and $1.50 next year. also cheap on a book value basis, depends on the health of the world economy. would buy it around $18 and would sell in the $22-$24 range. very well run company, do not care for the overall industry.

Fairmont own a small position in this hotel company, trading at $34.15 believe could go to $35-$37.50, downside and a good buying opportunity would be $28-$30. should earn $2 a share. at this price a hold, like it better than Four Seasons.

Fording Coal is now an income trust which I have bought more units in between $28.50-$28.60 currently trading at $28.61. Fording was the target of a takeover battle and all of the companies involved decided to form a bigger coal company. Fording has long life reserves and should be able to cut costs, the div should average around $3-$3.50 plus there will be $1.48 in special dividends. So a div this year of $5, and in future year of $3-$3.50 seems like a good company to own for income. trades on TSX.

CP rail should earn .21-.25 this quarter instead of .37. the stock was trading at $29 cdn. now it is up to $31.01. The earnings warning was due to higher fuel costs and an evil bad cruel evil..... winter from hell and beyond. it was a worse winter than that. anyways I have written put options on CP at $27.50cdn. July mostly, the stock could go to $35, downside is $25-$27.50 cdn. so if my average cost is below $26 if the puts are excercised which I believe is cheap for the company. Depends on the North American economy but also the grain crop in western Canada which I fear there could be another drought.

thanks
selkirk
 
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