This is a real interesting one to cap. Some of the Cubs have had some real good success against Hampton: Grudz has absolutely killed him (15/37 .405 2 2B 1 HR) and Moises has done well too (8/21 .381 1 2B 1 HR). Sosa hasn't hit for great average but has a lot of power against him (13/52 .250 1 2B 6 HR 11 RBI 7 BB) and Ramirez has 3 hits in 10 ABs while Miller has 4 hits in 9 ABs. Apparently Lofton and Simon have never faced him (no stats on ESPN.com). A-Gon is only 1 for 7 against him while Martinez is 3 for 11 so I wonder who'll get the start tonight.
Overall against the Cubs over the last 3 years, Hampton has posted a less than stellar 4.97 ERA, with 25.1 IP 33 H 14 R 7 HR 7 BB and the Cubs hitting .314 against him. Nevertheless, he is still 3-0 against them over that span.
How Zambrano will fare tonight is the big enigma. None of the Braves hitters have more than 9 ABs against him but there are 3 starters that have hit over .300 against him (Castilla at .375 and Sheffield and Fick at .333). The Braves tagged him for 7 runs in 5 IP back in July, but then Carlos went on a tear. Over his next 11 starts, he allowed 15 ER in 83.2 IP for a sparkling 1.61 ERA. Then, in his last 2 starts he regressed and allowed 11 ER and 8 BB in 9.2 IP. He says those problems are behind him and that he will prove it tonight. We'll see.
Zambrano certainly has the stuff to shut down any team on any given day. On the other hand, he has also demonstrated the capacity to lose his composure and not be able to hit the strike zone, or overthrow the ball causing it to lose the sink that makes him so tough to hit.
Personally, my feeling is that with Hampton's high ERA against the Cubs and the number of Cubs that have had success against him, I think the Cubs will find a way to scratch across at least 4. Therefore I'd recommend playing the over and hedging it with a bet on the Cubs ML, as the only way I see this going under is if Zambrano just dominates the Braves. If Zambrano pitches just OK and the Cubs get 6, you got a good chance at winning both. Otherwise, it should be no worse than a tie.
Thoughts appreciated.
Overall against the Cubs over the last 3 years, Hampton has posted a less than stellar 4.97 ERA, with 25.1 IP 33 H 14 R 7 HR 7 BB and the Cubs hitting .314 against him. Nevertheless, he is still 3-0 against them over that span.
How Zambrano will fare tonight is the big enigma. None of the Braves hitters have more than 9 ABs against him but there are 3 starters that have hit over .300 against him (Castilla at .375 and Sheffield and Fick at .333). The Braves tagged him for 7 runs in 5 IP back in July, but then Carlos went on a tear. Over his next 11 starts, he allowed 15 ER in 83.2 IP for a sparkling 1.61 ERA. Then, in his last 2 starts he regressed and allowed 11 ER and 8 BB in 9.2 IP. He says those problems are behind him and that he will prove it tonight. We'll see.
Zambrano certainly has the stuff to shut down any team on any given day. On the other hand, he has also demonstrated the capacity to lose his composure and not be able to hit the strike zone, or overthrow the ball causing it to lose the sink that makes him so tough to hit.
Personally, my feeling is that with Hampton's high ERA against the Cubs and the number of Cubs that have had success against him, I think the Cubs will find a way to scratch across at least 4. Therefore I'd recommend playing the over and hedging it with a bet on the Cubs ML, as the only way I see this going under is if Zambrano just dominates the Braves. If Zambrano pitches just OK and the Cubs get 6, you got a good chance at winning both. Otherwise, it should be no worse than a tie.
Thoughts appreciated.
