Gulfstream Park race 7, Monday January 14
Going to the track tomorrow and thought I would throw this up on the board. Gulfstream's feature tomorrow it the ungraded "Dave Feldman Stks" for 3 year olds traveling 1 1/16 miles on the turf. These races can present some value since these horses are maturing and sorting themselfs out. There is a field of 11 here (b4 scratch time) and I see a horse that I think the public will bet down that might be vulnerable. First I will throw a couple word up about him, then the others I like here and how I am going to play the race.
#11 August Storm
My take is he will be the favorite by the time they leave the gate tomorrow (he is the ml favorite now) and I think he is beatable. First looking at his PP's he likes to jump out in or very near the lead and wire his foes. My take is that doing this from his post might soften him up a bit when the real running begins. Jerry Baily is back aboard and this will do nothing but drive the odds lower. This horse has won 3 of 4 career starts but I am going to take a stand against him because if the bad PP with the big field and his low odds. This points me to others adding value to the race.
#2 Mountain Forum; 10-1
This fellow sold for $90K in Ocala in 2001, broke his maiden last August and has kept very good company since, making 2 turf starts, both ungraded stakes races at Calder. He won trying the grass his first time in a $60K going 1 mile. They tried him again in a $100K turf race a month later where he did not fare so well. With the company he has kept and his morning line 10-1 odds I have to include this guy in my tickets in this race and a saver on the nose.
#5 Honor In War; 4-1
Well bred colt has been off since November but has a steady diet of works to prepare him for this affair. Broke his maiden at Keeneland on the dirt then went to Churchill and won a non restricted allownace on the turf. His breeding, consistant work tab and career 2 wins in 3 starts put him in the mix IMHO.
#6 Worldly Victor; 12-1
This guy tried the stakes ranks in his last and looking at the line it seems he was making a move in the middle of the race but flattened out and finished 9th beaten 6 1/4 lengths. In his previous start he won in a nw1x on the grass at this distance and Pat Day may move him up a couple lengths and he could be a factor here.
#8 Emergency Status; 5-1
I really like this guy's shot here. He has 3 career starts and all have been on the grass at 1 1/16 miles. He won 2 of the 3 with 1 of the races being a $100K stake at The Meadowlands. He was copetitative vs a few of these in his last out where he ran 3 wide and got tired. They are putting blinkers on him for the first time and adding lasix. I see him in the mix here also.
My ticket:
$5 exacta part wheel 8/2,5,6 =$15
$5 exacta part wheel 2,5,6/8 =$15
$2 exacta box 2,5,6,8 =$24
$10 win saver 2 =$10
In summary I am throwing out the horse that I feel will be the favorite and looking for value in a full field of 3 year old animals that have yet to reach their potential. The value should be there, hopefully the ####'s on the tote at the end of this race correspond with the ones I have posted above. Good luck at the windows with all your wagers.
Going to the track tomorrow and thought I would throw this up on the board. Gulfstream's feature tomorrow it the ungraded "Dave Feldman Stks" for 3 year olds traveling 1 1/16 miles on the turf. These races can present some value since these horses are maturing and sorting themselfs out. There is a field of 11 here (b4 scratch time) and I see a horse that I think the public will bet down that might be vulnerable. First I will throw a couple word up about him, then the others I like here and how I am going to play the race.
#11 August Storm
My take is he will be the favorite by the time they leave the gate tomorrow (he is the ml favorite now) and I think he is beatable. First looking at his PP's he likes to jump out in or very near the lead and wire his foes. My take is that doing this from his post might soften him up a bit when the real running begins. Jerry Baily is back aboard and this will do nothing but drive the odds lower. This horse has won 3 of 4 career starts but I am going to take a stand against him because if the bad PP with the big field and his low odds. This points me to others adding value to the race.
#2 Mountain Forum; 10-1
This fellow sold for $90K in Ocala in 2001, broke his maiden last August and has kept very good company since, making 2 turf starts, both ungraded stakes races at Calder. He won trying the grass his first time in a $60K going 1 mile. They tried him again in a $100K turf race a month later where he did not fare so well. With the company he has kept and his morning line 10-1 odds I have to include this guy in my tickets in this race and a saver on the nose.
#5 Honor In War; 4-1
Well bred colt has been off since November but has a steady diet of works to prepare him for this affair. Broke his maiden at Keeneland on the dirt then went to Churchill and won a non restricted allownace on the turf. His breeding, consistant work tab and career 2 wins in 3 starts put him in the mix IMHO.
#6 Worldly Victor; 12-1
This guy tried the stakes ranks in his last and looking at the line it seems he was making a move in the middle of the race but flattened out and finished 9th beaten 6 1/4 lengths. In his previous start he won in a nw1x on the grass at this distance and Pat Day may move him up a couple lengths and he could be a factor here.
#8 Emergency Status; 5-1
I really like this guy's shot here. He has 3 career starts and all have been on the grass at 1 1/16 miles. He won 2 of the 3 with 1 of the races being a $100K stake at The Meadowlands. He was copetitative vs a few of these in his last out where he ran 3 wide and got tired. They are putting blinkers on him for the first time and adding lasix. I see him in the mix here also.
My ticket:
$5 exacta part wheel 8/2,5,6 =$15
$5 exacta part wheel 2,5,6/8 =$15
$2 exacta box 2,5,6,8 =$24
$10 win saver 2 =$10
In summary I am throwing out the horse that I feel will be the favorite and looking for value in a full field of 3 year old animals that have yet to reach their potential. The value should be there, hopefully the ####'s on the tote at the end of this race correspond with the ones I have posted above. Good luck at the windows with all your wagers.