Dave Johnson?s ?Inside the Lines?

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College football previews, odds, and gambling information.



Orange Bowl January 3rd 2006



Dolphins Stadium Miami, FL

#3 Penn State (10-1) @ #22 Florida State (8-4) 8:00 ET ABC



Opening Football Odds: Penn State-9 o/u 51

Current Football Odds: Penn State-10 o/u 46



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Breakdown:

The two most successful coaches in major college football history square off against each other in this years Orange Bowl.

Penn State head coach Joe Paterno has silenced the critics this year by winning the Big Ten title for the first time in 11 years. The success of Penn State was driven by the outstanding play on both the offense and defense. The offense is led by quarterback Michael Robinson who threw for 2,097 yards, 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. The defense ranked 16th in the nation held opponents to only 16.5 points per game.

Bobby Bowden and the Seminoles head into this game with the lowest ranking of any teams in the BCS. However, the do have a little momentum after beating 5th ranked Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game. Florida State has the 14th ranked defense in the nation and allows only 302.42 yards per game.



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Injuries

Penn State Nittany Lions

No serious injuries to report.



Florida State Seminoles

No serious injuries to report.



Betting Action:

Penn State opened as a -9 point favorite. They have garnered early attention and are being bet right now at a 3 to 1 ratio which has resulted in the line move to -10. We expect to continue to write money at -10 so you may see the line go higher before kick-off.

The total on the game opened 51 but quickly dropped to 46 as a result of 2 to 1 money being played ?under?. Sharp players jump on this total early and hit it hard resulting in the strong move. Both defenses are ranked in the Top 20 in the nation so we expect to see more ?under? money coming in up until the start of the game.



Against the Spread (ATS):

Penn State is 7-2 this season ATS.

Florida State is 3-6 this season ATS.



National Statistics:

Overall Offense

Penn State ranked 32nd in the nation with 424.27 yards per game.

FSU ranked 51st in the nation with 384.32 yards per game.



Overall Defense

Penn State ranked 16th in the nation allowing 306.55 yards per game.

FSU ranked 14th in the nation allowing 302.42 yards per game.



College Football Betting Propositions:



Total Touchdowns scored in the game?

Current Odds: 5.5 over -125

Quick Statistics:

Penn State averages 4.4 touchdowns per game.

Florida State averages 3.7 touchdowns per game.



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Rose Bowl January 4th 2006



#1 Southern California (12-0) @ #2 Texas (12-0) 8:00 ET ABC



Opening Football Odds: USC -6 o/u 75

Current Football Odds: USC -7 o/u 69.5



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Breakdown:

No controversy this year surrounds the BCS championship game. The two best teams in the country as well as 3 of the 4 Heisman finalists will battle it out at the Rose Bowl.

Southern California is powered by running back and Heisman winner Reggie Bush as well as quarterback Matt Leinart. Bush ran for 1,658 yards this season scoring 15 touchdowns. Leinart was also impressive this season throwing for 3,450 yards with 27 touchdowns.

Texas heads into this game after a 70-3 rout of Colorado in the Big 12 Championship. Led by quarterback Vince Young they will attempt to win their first undisputed national title since 1969. The versatile Young threw for 2,769 yards and rushed for a team-best 850 yards this season.



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Injuries:

USC Trojans

No serious injuries to report.



Texas Longhorns

No serious injuries to report.



Betting Action:

USC garnering attention early at a 2 to 1 ratio. The money being played on the favorite has driven the line from -6 up to -7. If the trend continues expect to see USC -7 (-115) and even USC -7 (-120). The ?7 count? in college football is a key number. If the game does go to -7.5 I would expect to see some ?sharp money? being played on the Longhorns +7.5 before kick-off.

The total was hit hard early ?under? the 75. The ?sharps? hit the game driving it down to the current line of 69.5. Since going to 69.5 we have written even money on both the ?over? and the ?under?. These teams average a combined 1,000+ yards per game. I expect to see more ?over? money played by the general public before kick-off.



Against the Spread (ATS):

USC is 5-6 this season ATS.

Texas is 6-2 this season ATS.



USC over/under ratio this season is 6-5.

Texas over/under ratio this season is 8-0.



National Statistics:

Overall Offense

USC ranked 1st in the nation with 580.25 yards per game.

Texas ranked 4th in the nation with 508.42 yards per game.



Overall Defense

USC ranked 35th in the nation allowing 344.67 yards per game.

Texas ranked 6th in the nation allowing 280.33 yards per game.



College Football Betting Propositions:



1st score of the game will be?

Current Odds: Touchdown -360

Field Goal/Safety +300

Quick Statistic:

USC averages .6 Field Goals per game.

Texas averages .9 Field Goals per game.



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