LAS VEGAS - A desperate search continues for a man who disappeared in the Mt. Charleston area. It has been five days since 57-year-old David Malinsky went on a hike and never returned.
Malinsky was hiking the on or near the North Loop Trail around 3 p.m. on Saturday. He is a local sports handicapper, avid hiker, and photographer.
"People survive some of the most unbelievable situations in the world, and on the other end of the spectrum, people lose their lives over the smallest most ridiculous unbelievable things," said Tom Padden, Malinsky's friend. "So, it's a whole range of possibilities, and that's why not only are people not stopping but they're just coming out of the woodwork now."
Strangers, friends, and family are hoping for a miracle.
"Now we're really thinking outside of the box with every possibility that we can come up with," said Padden.
Malinsky hikes the North Loop Trail often. His car was found nearby. Search teams have been using drones to try to locate him.
Search continues, here is the facebook event page for today's search.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_HBAp8lDQJg" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
I've learned a ton over the years from Mr Malinsky, his nickname was "The Professor"
here is a selection of some of Dave Malinsky's writing:
One of the common themes you will find presented here over the course of time is that the best bets are the ones in which you find the best price, not necessarily what might feel like the strongest handicap, a mindset that is a bit uncommon across the multitudes. Most of what is presented in public handicapping are the notions of trying to predict the outcome of events, but over time what matters more is getting into the marketplace and timing for the best value points that can be found. Hence why it is always difficult to answer the question - "Who do you like this week?" when it comes up, because the real answer is "Show me your line." If someone would have asked me first thing this morning what the best bet of the day would be I honestly would not know - it all comes down to how the markets shape the games up. Most days are that way.
Essentially that is what winning at sports betting is about. I have never met anyone that was any good at predicting the outcome of sporting events, and if I wrote out my actual prediction for all of the games throughout a football season, some academics might grade them and say that I didn't have much of a clue. But winning is all relative - it is in being better than the rest of the market that profits are made. So the truth is that none of us are great at predicting outcomes, but some are better than others.
That can be a humbling thing for someone to deal with, as they see the vagaries of sports and human behavior play out game after game. There just isn't any kind of exactitude available, as opposed to so many other walks of life. But if you can learn to live with those various bounces this is an incredibly challenging endeavor, and one in which there can be a LOT of money made.
-----
I have had folks trying to explain "trap" games to me for about 35 years. None of the explanations have ever added up. I believe it is only the way that a person looks at a particular game. If I were teaching a college stats class there would be a great way to showcase it - I would have half of the class come up with stats and trends to back one side of an equation, and the other half for the opponent, and show just how many numbers there are involved. Many times what might look like a "trap" comes from starting with one side of an equation, and not going all the way through the games.
---
Pauly Howard and I spent time discussing the silliness of the "triple double" phrase on the Friday show - there just isn't anything magical about any particular number, and one would like to think that we have grown beyond that kind of nonsense in the 21st century, but that may not be the case. 10 is one more than 9 and one less than 11, merely the next point on the counting scale. The fact that it takes two digits to account for it instead of one is trivial. A guy who scored 40 points, had 9 rebounds and 9 assists, beat the hell out of someone who had 18-10-10. But the second guy got the "triple double". The inanity of how that impacted this NBA season, and in particular the Sports Mediaverse coverage that kept feeding the beast, was rather absurd.
------
I haven't played a college teaser since the inception of the shot clock and 3-point shot. The math just doesn't work on them, you pay too much in big for the value of the points you get in return.
---
The Sharps vs. Squares or Pros vs. Joes discussions make for interesting media, but are of almost no handicapping relevance. First the line between the two is increasingly blurred, as is noted here often - the recreational bettors have so much more access to information than ever before, plus the fact that there are so many big bettors in today's market, especially as the NFL and NBA get wagered on across the globe. So many times big bets are made not because the bettor has an edge, but simply because the bettor has a lot of money. That is today's market.
-------------
And also one of the toughest tasks for guys on the other side of the counter, what to do with Kershaw games...
You can lay the Dodgers -280 in a lot of key precincts around the globe, yet some Nevada properties are already showing -310. Why are they that far off? It comes down to parlays.
Kershaw has been the bane of existence for some local shops not just because of the success rate in the individual games, but the fact that the Dodgers get wheeled into so many parlays on his pitching days. When it is a late game on the coast it leads to something that is hilarious for some of us, but not at all for the shop stewards ? they check their system for open parlays that are still alive into the L.A. game, and cringe. By raising the prices they can?t turn the outcome of the game, but the shop stewards can at least make the parlays pay less, which salves their wounds a bit.
What this also means is that someone looking for the best of the value against Kershaw and the Dodgers will find it here in Las Vegas, usually a few minutes before first pitch. The problem is that someone doing that for the last couple of years might have been able to claim that they had ?value?, but they also would have suffered quite a loss despite seemingly having the best of the price.
----------
Falcons (3:05 Eastern) now are -6 -110 most online books...
this is all about what I often call a "forced market", which line moves can lack an integrity. This same game, with the same factors, might move a half point because of the Packer personnel issues, but the volume would be only a fraction. Now we have so many folks that have made a decision to bet the game, regardless of where the line happens to be, and they will be looking to bet whatever narrative best fits their handicapping process. Someone that liked Atlanta -4 would not lay the Falcons at -5 or higher in the regular season; they would simply move on to another game with their bankroll. But there is no other game at 3:05 Eastern on Sunday. Hence the forced action. There will still be folks betting Atlanta -6 because they were waiting until game day to bet, and could not have locked in earlier (of course along those same lines there will be folks taking Green Bay on the Money Line, which is down to +175 at the Westgate now, for similar reasons).
At this point the market is much more about recreation than folks looking for edges - the volume on GB/Atlanta would likely be the same if the game was -4, -5 or -6.
---
Timing is everything in this life. Who by brave assent and who by accident.
Understanding the difference between the two, both in knowing oneself, and in attempting to understand others, is about as important as any single aspect of life ever gets. Some folks don't ever dare to go there because of the confusion it can bring, but those that don't take that trip are only existing, not living.
And think about how that connects to what we do here every day, sports offering one of the supreme challenges in terms of measuring what was luck, and what was merit, as the final scores and stats get posted. These tours don't always bring us answers, but when they don't they can often lead to us asking better questions, which sometimes is even more important going forward.
Malinsky was hiking the on or near the North Loop Trail around 3 p.m. on Saturday. He is a local sports handicapper, avid hiker, and photographer.
"People survive some of the most unbelievable situations in the world, and on the other end of the spectrum, people lose their lives over the smallest most ridiculous unbelievable things," said Tom Padden, Malinsky's friend. "So, it's a whole range of possibilities, and that's why not only are people not stopping but they're just coming out of the woodwork now."
Strangers, friends, and family are hoping for a miracle.
"Now we're really thinking outside of the box with every possibility that we can come up with," said Padden.
Malinsky hikes the North Loop Trail often. His car was found nearby. Search teams have been using drones to try to locate him.
Search continues, here is the facebook event page for today's search.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_HBAp8lDQJg" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
I've learned a ton over the years from Mr Malinsky, his nickname was "The Professor"
here is a selection of some of Dave Malinsky's writing:
One of the common themes you will find presented here over the course of time is that the best bets are the ones in which you find the best price, not necessarily what might feel like the strongest handicap, a mindset that is a bit uncommon across the multitudes. Most of what is presented in public handicapping are the notions of trying to predict the outcome of events, but over time what matters more is getting into the marketplace and timing for the best value points that can be found. Hence why it is always difficult to answer the question - "Who do you like this week?" when it comes up, because the real answer is "Show me your line." If someone would have asked me first thing this morning what the best bet of the day would be I honestly would not know - it all comes down to how the markets shape the games up. Most days are that way.
Essentially that is what winning at sports betting is about. I have never met anyone that was any good at predicting the outcome of sporting events, and if I wrote out my actual prediction for all of the games throughout a football season, some academics might grade them and say that I didn't have much of a clue. But winning is all relative - it is in being better than the rest of the market that profits are made. So the truth is that none of us are great at predicting outcomes, but some are better than others.
That can be a humbling thing for someone to deal with, as they see the vagaries of sports and human behavior play out game after game. There just isn't any kind of exactitude available, as opposed to so many other walks of life. But if you can learn to live with those various bounces this is an incredibly challenging endeavor, and one in which there can be a LOT of money made.
-----
I have had folks trying to explain "trap" games to me for about 35 years. None of the explanations have ever added up. I believe it is only the way that a person looks at a particular game. If I were teaching a college stats class there would be a great way to showcase it - I would have half of the class come up with stats and trends to back one side of an equation, and the other half for the opponent, and show just how many numbers there are involved. Many times what might look like a "trap" comes from starting with one side of an equation, and not going all the way through the games.
---
Pauly Howard and I spent time discussing the silliness of the "triple double" phrase on the Friday show - there just isn't anything magical about any particular number, and one would like to think that we have grown beyond that kind of nonsense in the 21st century, but that may not be the case. 10 is one more than 9 and one less than 11, merely the next point on the counting scale. The fact that it takes two digits to account for it instead of one is trivial. A guy who scored 40 points, had 9 rebounds and 9 assists, beat the hell out of someone who had 18-10-10. But the second guy got the "triple double". The inanity of how that impacted this NBA season, and in particular the Sports Mediaverse coverage that kept feeding the beast, was rather absurd.
------
I haven't played a college teaser since the inception of the shot clock and 3-point shot. The math just doesn't work on them, you pay too much in big for the value of the points you get in return.
---
The Sharps vs. Squares or Pros vs. Joes discussions make for interesting media, but are of almost no handicapping relevance. First the line between the two is increasingly blurred, as is noted here often - the recreational bettors have so much more access to information than ever before, plus the fact that there are so many big bettors in today's market, especially as the NFL and NBA get wagered on across the globe. So many times big bets are made not because the bettor has an edge, but simply because the bettor has a lot of money. That is today's market.
-------------
And also one of the toughest tasks for guys on the other side of the counter, what to do with Kershaw games...
You can lay the Dodgers -280 in a lot of key precincts around the globe, yet some Nevada properties are already showing -310. Why are they that far off? It comes down to parlays.
Kershaw has been the bane of existence for some local shops not just because of the success rate in the individual games, but the fact that the Dodgers get wheeled into so many parlays on his pitching days. When it is a late game on the coast it leads to something that is hilarious for some of us, but not at all for the shop stewards ? they check their system for open parlays that are still alive into the L.A. game, and cringe. By raising the prices they can?t turn the outcome of the game, but the shop stewards can at least make the parlays pay less, which salves their wounds a bit.
What this also means is that someone looking for the best of the value against Kershaw and the Dodgers will find it here in Las Vegas, usually a few minutes before first pitch. The problem is that someone doing that for the last couple of years might have been able to claim that they had ?value?, but they also would have suffered quite a loss despite seemingly having the best of the price.
----------
Falcons (3:05 Eastern) now are -6 -110 most online books...
this is all about what I often call a "forced market", which line moves can lack an integrity. This same game, with the same factors, might move a half point because of the Packer personnel issues, but the volume would be only a fraction. Now we have so many folks that have made a decision to bet the game, regardless of where the line happens to be, and they will be looking to bet whatever narrative best fits their handicapping process. Someone that liked Atlanta -4 would not lay the Falcons at -5 or higher in the regular season; they would simply move on to another game with their bankroll. But there is no other game at 3:05 Eastern on Sunday. Hence the forced action. There will still be folks betting Atlanta -6 because they were waiting until game day to bet, and could not have locked in earlier (of course along those same lines there will be folks taking Green Bay on the Money Line, which is down to +175 at the Westgate now, for similar reasons).
At this point the market is much more about recreation than folks looking for edges - the volume on GB/Atlanta would likely be the same if the game was -4, -5 or -6.
---
Timing is everything in this life. Who by brave assent and who by accident.
Understanding the difference between the two, both in knowing oneself, and in attempting to understand others, is about as important as any single aspect of life ever gets. Some folks don't ever dare to go there because of the confusion it can bring, but those that don't take that trip are only existing, not living.
And think about how that connects to what we do here every day, sports offering one of the supreme challenges in terms of measuring what was luck, and what was merit, as the final scores and stats get posted. These tours don't always bring us answers, but when they don't they can often lead to us asking better questions, which sometimes is even more important going forward.
