Denver at San Diego - misc Write ups

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Time: 6:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN, KRSJ 100.5 FM

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Bolts think they?ve got 18?s number
Opening Line: Chargers by 3

Record vs. Spread: Denver 2-3; San Diego 3-2

Series Record: Broncos lead 55-48-1

AP Pro32 Ranking: No. 15 Broncos; No. 13 Chargers

Last Meeting: Broncos beat San Diego 16-13, OT, Nov. 27, 2011

Last Week: Broncos lost to Patriots 31-21; Chargers lost to Saints 31-24

Broncos Offense: Overall (9), rush (17), pass (5)

Broncos Defense: Overall (13), rush (21), pass (11)

Chargers Offense: Overall (23), rush (16), pass (19)

Chargers Defense: Overall (T11), rush (5), pass (20)

Streaks, Statistics and Notes: Chargers lead the Broncos by one game in the AFC West.


Peyton Manning has won 11 of 15 of his Monday starts, with a 96.3 passer rating.

Last week, Manning registered his 66th career 300-yard passing game, most in NFL history.

Broncos wasted Manning?s 345-yard, three-touchdown performance in a loss to the Patriots.

San Diego?s Philip Rivers is 7-3 on Monday nights, with 17 touchdowns and a 105.2 passer rating.

Chargers have won nine of the last 12 in this series, but the Broncos have won two of the last three in San Diego.

Although this is the first matchup against Manning since he signed with the Broncos, the Chargers have had the QB?s number since 2005, going 5-1 against him while he was with Indianapolis. The Chargers eliminated Manning?s Colts from the playoffs in 2007 and ?08.

San Diego is 5-4 overall against Manning since 1998, when he was the No. 1 draft pick overall; the Chargers took Ryan Leaf No. 2.

Denver had as many playoff wins last season (one) as the Chargers have in their last four seasons. Chargers have missed the playoffs the last two seasons.

San Diego coach Norv Turner is 110-115-1 in the regular season in stops with Washington, Oakland and San Diego.

The Chargers appear ready to take the training wheels off RB Ryan Mathews after limiting his carries the last two games in punishment for fumbling on the Atlanta 4-yard line in a 27-3 loss to the Falcons three weeks ago. Mathews has been losing his carries to journeyman Jackie Battle.









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San Diego Chargers -1 vs. Denver Broncos
So far this season, AccuScore has gone a solid 14-9 picking AFC games, and 3-1 picking San Diego games against the spread. The computer projects the Chargers as solid favorites at home favoring the bolts by four points. San Diego wins outright more than 60 percent of the time, and teams rarely win by a single point. That is less likely to happen as both teams should put up points with the game likely played in the high 20s to low 30s. The Chargers actually win by double digits in a third of simulations, twice as often as the Broncos.

San Diego vs. Denver Over 49.5 Points
 
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Denver 26 - SAN DIEGO 23 - (8:35 - ESPN) --

The last time that Peyton played here was in '08 Wild Card match, in which the Chargers won 23-17 on a Darren Sproles 22-yd TD run. SanDiego in off blowing 24-14 lead at NewOrleans, but note >100 RYs in each of last 4 weeks, & Rivers at 8/5. No contest for Broncs at NewEngland, but late surge nearly got the spread bacon, before a fumble at Pat 11 by McGahee. Manning a decent 31-of-44 in that contest, & is now at 11/3 for the season. Tebow-led Broncos won in OT here LY, so they're hardly awestruck by the locale. We'll call this to the wire, with another OT quite possible. Broncos.
 

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Denver over SAN DIEGO by 11
A battle for supremacy in the AFC West kicks off under the Monday night lights when Philip Rivers and the 3-2 Chargers host Peyton Manning and the 2-3 Broncos in San Diego. It?s not often you will find Manning?s teams taking the field with a losing record but when you do you can count on them, as evidenced by his 17-8 SU career mark in these games, including 3-0 SUATS when facing a foe off a SUATS loss. In addition, Monday night football fields have been Peyton?s place where he is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in his career as a favorite or dog of less than 3 points. On the other side of the coin, Rivers is 0-2 SUATS as a favorite in games off a loss on Mondays. More important, Charger head coach Norv Turner lumps up at home in division games where he stands 17-31 ATS in his NFL career, including 0-5 SUATS when favored by a field goal or less. With the visitor 5-1 SUATS the last six games in this series, look for Peyton to pull his team even with the Chargers here tonight.

Broncos kick up their heels at Qualcomm.
kngt.gif
 

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San Diego over Denver by 1 (Monday)

Denver halted a five-game losing streak at Sam Diego last season winning, 16-13, in overtime. That was with Tim Tebow. Now the Broncos have a real quarterback with Peyton Manning. Their defense remains solid having held three of their five opponents to a season-low average. San Diego has the better record at 3-2, but has played a far easier schedule. The Broncos have gone against four playoff teams with the exception of Oakland. Discount Atlanta, who the Chargers lost to at home by 24 points to, and San Diego?s other opponents have a combined record of 4-15. The Chargers have failed to reach 300 yards in more than half of their games.

SAN DIEGO 24-23.


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*SAN DIEGO over DENVER by 16 :scared


Despite losing to the Saints last Sunday night, the Chargers have to be pleased with the state of their offense. If not for some costly turnovers, and some referee- ing that prompted the announcers to compare it to the work of the replacement refs, the Chargers would have won and be sitting pretty at 4-1. Of course, nothing ever comes easy for a Norv Turner team. This week will be a nice test between the two favorites for the AFC West, and a good gauge of where Peyton Manning stands amongst the division?s quarterbacks. While he played well last week, the Broncos were not able to keep up with the prolific New England offense. Will they be able to match San Diego? Peyton has never played well when facing the Char- gers, sporting his lowest QB rating against any team he?s faced at 72.5 in seven games, with a 60.8% completion percentage and a 12/15 TD/INT ratio. That?s ac- companied by a 2-5 SU & ATS record. In contrast, Phillip Rivers has always played well against Denver, with a 102.7 QB rating in 13 games and a 20/7 TD/INT ratio. The Chargers have also put together a nice 9-2 SU & ATS mark in their last nine games against their division rivals, which bodes well for this first showdown of 2012.

SAN DIEGO, 36-20.
 

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SAN DIEGO (-2 1⁄2) Denver (49 1⁄2)

The Chargers gave the Saints a win last week with a typical mistakes and San Diego has once again fallen back to the pack after a promising start to the season. Denver is 2-3 but this is a team to look out for as the early season schedule has been very tough. The Broncos have played close in tough games and venues this season and while this is a second straight road game the defense could shine. Coming off Sunday night is never easy and San Diego has not defeated a quality team this season.

BRONCOS BY 3

=================

*Denver 27 - SAN DIEGO 26?Last year, Tim Tebow came off the bench and nearly rallied the Broncos in Denver, then he started and led the team to an OT victory later in San Diego. Now, there?s a new QB in control for the Broncs. But Peyton Manning is 0-2 SU and vs. the spread on the road (Atl., N.E.). And the Chargers? 3-4 defense has a little history of giving Manning problems, especially when OLB Shawne Merriman was at his intimidating best vs. the Colts. But Manning (345 YP, 3 TDP) exhibited substantial progress with his receivers last week in Foxborough, where a late Willis McGahee fumble greatly damaged a good Bronco chance at the cover in that 31-21 loss.

Prefer to take any points.

_________________________
 

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MONDAY, OCTOBER 15 Time Posted: 3:00 p.m. EST (10/10)
Game 233-234: Denver at San Diego (8:30 p.m. EST)
D- Ratings: Denver 135.211; San Diego 134.078
D-Line: Denver by 1; 52
Vegas Line: San Diego by 2; 49 1/2
Pick: Denver (+2); Over


The Broncos look to take advantage of a San Diego team that is coming off a 31-21 loss at New Orleans and is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in the previous game. Denver is the pick (+2) according to D, which has the Broncos favored by 1. Pick: Denver (+2).



_________________________
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-1, 49.5)

The look on Peyton Manning?s face said it all.

The Broncos marched down the field and had themselves in position to make things very interesting late in the fourth quarter at New England last weekend.

Then, RB Willis McGahee fumbled on the Patriots? 14-yard line with just under four minutes remaining, erasing any chance of a Denver comeback ? let alone a cover as a 5.5-point underdog.

Don?t expect anyone else to handle the ball besides Manning when the Broncos are closing in on the end zone in San Diego Monday.

Pick: Denver +1
 

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Best of the Best MNF Bet

Best of the Best MNF Bet

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Take: San Diego Chargers

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers...MILLIONAIRES...Take San Diego The San Diego Chargers and the Denver Broncos face off on ESPN?s Monday Night Football in an NFL NFC West showdown. The San Diego Chargers are in first place in the AFC West but they come into this game having lost their last two games. San Diego needs to get back on track if they want to get back to being a playoff team. Defensively San Diego allows 20.4 points per game and with the Vegas Over/Under at 50 points, the margin of covering the spread is certainly there. The Denver Broncos had big expectations coming into the season but thus far they haven?t lived up to expectations and have looked somewhat disjointed. Peyton Manning doesn?t look like the same player we have seen throughout his career. It?s tough to win in the NFL with a negative turnover margin and the Broncos are proof that this is still very much the case. San Diego is 4-0 against the spread following a loss, 7-0 against the spread in their last seven games against AFC teams, and 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games overall. Denver is 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games overall, 0-4 against the spread in their last four Monday Night games and 2-8-2 against the spread in the last 12 meetings of these two.
 

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Broncos +3 at Chargers: I think John Fox has a more fixed attention when it comes to detail than Norv Turner. I?m taking the coaching edge plus the points in what should be an extremely close and hard fought divisional battle.

BRONCOS.

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Broncos +3 at Chargers (50?):

These teams are statistically even in many areas with the major differences being San Diego having the better rushing defense and the Denver offense, directed by QB Peyton Manning, having the much better passing attack. Of concern for the Denver defense is that they?ve had just four takeaways all season. The Chargers are 9-2-1 ATS against Denver since.

CHARGERS.
 

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Play On - Road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (DENVER) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, after the first month of the season.
43-20 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.3% 0.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% 0.0 units )
 

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Broncos (2-3) @ Chargers (3-2)

?Network TV?s fascination with Peyton Manning has Denver playing schedule frontloaded with tough games; they?ve lost three of last four games, but three losses came to teams ranked in top four in league. Winner of this game and rematch in five week goes long way towards taking AFC West title. Broncos lost 27-21 in Atlanta, 31-21 in Foxboro, but you get feeling Manning is feeling more comfortable with receivers. San Diego won nine of last 12 series games and four of last five, with last three decided by 5 or less points, but Denver won two of last three visits here. Chargers got hosed by officials in Superdome Sunday night; they?ve turned ball over six times in two losses (-4), twice in three wins (+6)- they were 7-24 on 3rd down last two games, after going 20-41 in first three. Divisional home favorites are 6-6 vs spread so far this season.
 

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AFC Game of the Week

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN). While waiting for Peyton Manning to get into a rhythm, the Broncos have navigated as best they could through a tough schedule. Their losses?at Atlanta, vs. Houston, at New England?were expected. The AFC West already is down to a two-team race, and Manning knows his old nemeses from his Colts days, Philip Rivers and the Chargers, stand in the way of the playoffs.

Denver simply is a better all-around team. Although younger at receiver and older at running back, the Broncos have more stability and depth around Manning than San Diego has for Rivers. Von Miller and the Broncos? pass rush also are more trustworthy than the Chargers? pressure game.

Broncos 27, Chargers 20 :0008
 

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MONDAY NIGHT

Denver 34 (+3), SAN DIEGO 21?The Broncos are a disappointing 2-3, but none of their three losses were road games on natural grass, in which they went 4-2 straight up and 5-1 against the spread a year ago?and Peyton Manning is 48-34 outright lifetime as a visitor on the grass, including 37-17 since 2003. The Chargers couldn't be much if the previously winless Saints beat them; but then again, we already knew they weren't much, and come 2013, Norv Turner will be back doing what he's best suited for?coordinating some team's offense.
 

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Broncos at Chargers

The implications of Denver and San Diego will have a lasting effect on each team's season.

Not only is this a must-win for both, but the winner takes immediate control atop the AFC West before November.

That said, this game comes down to the pass rush and pass defense.

Both quarterbacks are capable of dicing up the opposing secondary, so playmakers such as Tracy Porter and Eric Weddle must step up for their teams.

One distinction, though, lies in the total number of players capable of applying consistent quarterback pressure.

Denver has a few players after Von Miller, whereas the Bolts have only Shaun Phillips.
 

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Denver Broncos (+3) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

This one's a much trickier call, as it involves two division rivals who are fairly evenly matched and each coming off of tough road losses in Week 5.


The Broncos in particular struggled defensively in their 31-21 loss to the New England Patriots, allowing the Patriots to set a franchise record for first downs and frustrating head coach John Fox with their inability to get New England off the field on third down, according to AP.

?Really, at the end of the day, our third down?s been a little bit of a bugaboo throughout this portion of the season,? Fox said. ?What?s most disheartening about that is they weren?t all third-and-1s.?

That would seem to set the stage for a San Diego victory at home, but the Broncos are in a bit of desperation mode after dropping three of their last four and we're way overdue on a meltdown from Chargers head coach Norv Turner, so I'm going against the grain and taking the road underdog here. :0074
 

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Everyone loves Peyton Manning. Nobody loves Norv Turner. So, of course, the betting public is on the Broncos for their Monday Night Football matchup with the Chargers.
Will our resident contrarian choose to swim upstream again this week with his NFL pick?

Nope. I?m telling you right off the bat that I like the Broncos as 1-point underdogs. And I definitely would have preferred grabbing them at +2.5 (+115) on the opening NFL lines. Read on and find out why, plus we?ve got the moneyline and total to discuss.



Thank You Kindly

First, let me thank the customer who chimed in after the Jets covered last week. I hope your wife appreciates her Christmas present. I think any woman would look stunning in a game-worn Fred Biletnikoff uniform.

The Jets didn?t cash in on the moneyline (didn?t expect them to, but hey, +330), and the total was a push, so we officially broke even last week. I forgot to factor in the vigorish for the missed total in Week 4; taking away that $10 leaves me up 9.1 units on my Super Genius MNF picks.



A Work in Progress

We?ve been hearing that phrase used to describe the Broncos (2-3 SU and ATS) ever since Week 2, when they lost 27-21 to the Atlanta Falcons (another Genius pick) as 3-point road dogs. This was the week after Manning made his Denver debut in style, going pick-free in a big win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football.

Progress has indeed been made, even if it hasn?t always put a ?W? up on the board. Manning is again pick-free in each of his last three games, making more and longer throws with more accuracy after missing all of 2011 following neck surgery.

Denver ended up losing two of those games, but that was to the Houston Texans (?1 away) and the New England Patriots (?5.5 at home). The sole victory was a 37-6 clubbering of the Oakland Raiders (+6.5 away). You may recognize the disparity in strength of opposition here. In fact, all three of Denver?s losses have been to Top-5 teams according to the efficiency rankings going into Week 6: No. 2 Houston, No. 4 Atlanta and No. 5 New England.



You Stay Classy, San Diego

The Chargers (3-2 SU and ATS) do not fall into this elite category. They?re No. 16 on the efficiency charts while the Broncos are all the way up at No. 9 thanks to their strength of schedule. Want some juicy parallelism? All three of San Diego?s victories have been against Bottom-5 teams on the efficiency charts: No. 29 Oakland, the No. 30 Kansas City Chiefs and the No. 32 Tennessee Titans.

That's right, there is plenty of reason to go with the Broncos as very slim road dogs on Monday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). And I?m not the only one who thinks so. Our consensus numbers show 62 percent support for the Broncos on the pointspread and 70 percent on the moneyline at +107.

I sure do like to fade the public. However, this is one of those cases where sharps and squares appear to be in harmony ? for different reasons, naturally. I don?t get all the hate for Norv Turner. I think it has to do more with his softer personality than his decision-making. But in this case, the anti-Turner sentiment is offset by the over-valuation of San Diego?s three wins this season. Same with the gushing pro-Manning contingent and Denver?s three losses.

Now for that total. It?s slid all the way from 51 at the open to 47 as I write this; the sharps jumped on the UNDER right away, but now the consensus reports show 56 percent support for the OVER. We?re looking at a beautiful clear night at The Murph with game-time temperatures in the 70s. Neither defense has been world-class this year, so I?ll hit the OVER, too. May the prolate spheroid be with you.

My Picks: Denver +1, Denver +107, OVER 47 :0074 :0074 :0074
 

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Having already produced a pick on the total, I'm back with a spread pick on the MNF matchup between the visiting Denver Broncos and AFC-leading San Diego Chargers. Let's take advantage of a line that's been demonstrating a great deal of movement.



Big Mover

Between Friday night and Saturday morning, some huge money apparently came in on the Broncos to win this game. After opening at -2 ? in favor of the Chargers earlier in the week, the line slowly dropped to -1 Chargers by Friday. However, by Saturday morning, a huge shift on this one had rolled in.

It started with just a few books placing the game as a pick em by late last night. However, around 10 AM EST, another apparent huge block of cash came in on the Broncos. Now, one is hard pressed to find the Chargers as betting favorites or, more likely, the Broncos as underdogs.

Most NFL odds currently have the game as a pick 'em with the juice on the Broncos, or they have Denver as a -1 favorite. This game has now seen more movement in the odds than any other game this week.

This makes handicapping it a little more difficult. With line movement like this, it means the sharps have a play in mind or that there was a major injury or setback to the Chargers that just came out.

I?ve been monitoring news wires, but it doesn?t seem there was any ground breaking news that warrants such a big shift in the odds. My initial reaction is to follow the sharps, but we don?t need to lose value. However, if you feel as if the play is the Broncos, I suggest you lay it now.


The Sharp Pick

But folks, this is my pick, and I do indeed have a play in mind, and it might just coincide with the sharps? big movement on the Broncos. What?s ironic about this big shift is that the Chargers have owned the Broncos of late. However, this is a new season, and it changes even more with Peyton Manning as the starter for Denver.

For the sake of arguing, I will note that the Broncos are only 3-7 SU in their last ten games against the Chargers, and San Diego is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Broncos.

The Broncos did win and cover in their last game against the Chargers, winning 16-13. That?s a Tim Tebow score if I?ve ever seen one, and his time in Denver is long since over.

For this game, I like Manning and the Broncos. The trends are thrown out so far, and even though the Chargers have been really good on defense this season, I think Manning and the Broncos are going to click big time for this game. It?s in warm weather, on a big stage, and you?ll see the best of Manning so far this season. I like the Broncos to get the win.

My Pick: Broncos -110 :toast:
 

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The prime-time games have been pretty kind to me this season, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Focus and discipline are still required as we try to piece together two NFL winning picks from tonight's MNF game.


Monday Night Football Parlay

Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers: ATS Pick

The NFL odds couldn't be any closer for tonight's game, as the Chargers are favored by just a point. A pick'em can also be located at certain sportsbooks.

Of the two, the Chargers have been the more successful team both SU and ATS. They're 3-2 in both categories, while the Broncos have gone 2-3.


This is a tough one to pick, but I do think Denver represents the better side with our sports picks tonight. There's a reason the Broncos are only one-point dogs on the road despite having the worse record.

Check out San Diego's resume and you may see why. Their three wins have been against Oakland, Tennessee and Kansas City, while Denver's three losses have been to Atlanta, Houston and New England, three of the better teams in the NFL.

What's more, I'd much rather put my faith in a Peyton Manning/John Fox combo rather than Philip Rivers and Norv Turner.

Manning is leading a Denver offense that's ranked sixth with 287.2 passing yards per game, leading to a great matchup for him against San Diego's pass defense, which is surrendered 26.0 YPG (#22 in the NFL).

The Broncos just need to stop falling behind early in games and they should be just fine. Manning and his compadres are building more chemistry each and every week and I think they'll be able to get their first road win of the season tonight.

NFL Pick: Denver Broncos +1 :0corn



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Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers: O/U Pick

The posted total for the game is mainly at 47 and 47.5. Both the Broncos and Chargers have seen the OVER go 3-2 in their matchups this season.

Still, something's telling me to go the other way with this one.

We'll start with Denver. The Broncos have been great against the pass (215.0 YPG), helping them to #13 in total defense on the year. This defensive unit is doing a terrific job overall of getting to the quarterback, especially Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, who have eight seasons between them.

The Chargers have been on the other side of the spectrum, dominating against the run instead of the pass. They're allowing just 74.0 YPG thus far.

If they were able to stop teams from passing at will, maybe San Diego would be a lot higher than #12 in total defense.

I'm backing the UNDER because I think the Chargers will be aiming to keep Peyton off the field by stringing together long drives. They're going to give the ball to Ryan Mathews a ton as they look to establish the run against a shaky Denver run D. Mathews looked exceptional against the Saints last week and seems to have locked down the starting role once again.

Whether that directly leads to a low-scoring outcome is unknown, but I do suspect there won't be as many points scored as people may think and will be making my free NFL pick as such.

NFL Pick: UNDER 47.5

NFL Parlay: Broncos +1 and UNDER 47.5 :popcorn2
 

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Vs.

Tonight?s Monday Night Football match up pins division rivals, Denver Broncos Vs. San Diego Chargers. Last year, Tebow time got the best of the Chargers in OT, after the first meeting in which San Diego had rendered both Denver QB?s useless. This year, Denver comes in with veteran and superstar, Peyton Manning. Manning has looked pretty good so far this season, considering missing an entire year and he looks to have Denver moving along pretty well. Phillip Rivers and company have struggled early, but looked very promising last week, in a loss to New Orleans. Ryan Matthews played great, and he looks to have a big game tonight. Overall, the teams look to be very evenly matched. Seeing how it?s a home game, and the Chargers are -1, the Denver Broncos look to be a bit of a square bet. There does not seem to be any really outliers or indicators as to which team has an edge, and on Monday Night, I don?t see either laying an egg. I believe this is the perfect game for NO ACTION, but for picking sake, I?d roll with the Chargers -1. They?re at home, and it seems that Denver would be the obvious play, hence going the other direction. Phillip Rivers has had success against Denver and he?ll be ready for the Monday Night Shine.
 

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers Preview,

The top two teams in the AFC West will face off on Monday Night Football to determine the top spot in the division.

A win for San Diego would give them a two-game lead over Denver, while a win for Denver would tie them for first with San Diego.




Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning and the Broncos have struggled this season, with a record of 2-3, but they have easily had the hardest schedule of any team. Their losses are against the Falcons, Texans, and Patriots respectively. The Falcons are still undefeated, while the Texans just lost their first game of the season.

Peyton has not had a dropoff in production this season. He only has thrown three interceptions, which all came against the Falcons in Week 2. He has thrown for at least 330 yards in each of his last three games, while throwing a combined 8 touchdowns during that span.

The issue for Denver has been the defense, which was a main reason for their success last season.

In each of their three losses, the defense has allowed at least 27 points. The offense scored at least 21 in each of these games, but it was simply not enough.

San Diego does have an offense that routinely scores in the high twenties, so it will be interesting to see how the Denver defense handles them




San Diego Chargers

San Diego came into last week?s game against the winless Saints with a 3-1 record, but they lost their second game of these season, which also gave New Orleans their first win of the year.

The San Diego offense is right in the middle of the league in terms of yards, but they have been able to score at least 22 points in each of their wins. Their worst game came against Atlanta in Week 3, in which they only scored 3 points, but the Falcons are easily the top team in the league.

Phillip Rivers only threw for 188 yards in the team?s last meeting with Denver, but that was a different Denver team. The two teams split the season series last year, but with Peyton Manning in town, it is tough to make too many comparisons.

Broncos-Chargers Prediction
The Chargers were looking like they were a top team in the AFC before last week?s loss to New Orleans. Denver has faced the top teams in the league, and they will finally pull through against a team that is over .500.

Broncos 27 | Chargers 24 :0003
 
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