Derby bettors....Please read

[SmashMouth]

I go to Saratoga every year and have plenty of stories from there, but this one might be of use. My buddy and I were playing keno in a little bar there after the races, and we got friendly with the bartender. A little guy with a heavy Irish brogue came in and he happened to work for James bond the trainer. I think it was a monday and he asked if we'd be in town for saturday. We said we would and he told us to bet his horse on saturday. He said tell your friends but not until saturday and if you're going to pound it to it off track. He told us that they had all been saving money to bet on one of the bosses horses, and Mr Bond said this was the spot. Anyway the horse won easy. It paid 12 to win and we all made a killing. We saw this guy again that night and needless to say we had a great time with him and he didn't pay for a thing. Him and I exchanged #'s and he has given me a couple horses. Both won. When Bond got Buddha away from Mott,we talked and he said this horse was going to be a freak. The only question was going to be how quickly the horse developed. He called me before the Wood, and he said they had him ready and he had a good shot, but Bond was not sure of any of the other horses. They won.
Just got off the phone with my friend, and he said Mr Bond told him that this was a triple crown contender. He said to make sure whatever he bet to make sure he played the same amount to place. They are only worried about Came Home. Take this for what it's worth. A tip. It's definitely worth a few bucks across the board. I was surprised to hear that came home was the one they are concerned about. Keep in mind Bond has not been here before, he is a respected trainer on the Ny circuit though. Just wanted to pass it along. Good luckdance2

 

[SmashMouth]

Buddha 6-1 on Carrib
Came home 7-1
Nice exacta!!

 

[Hamster]

Smash Mouth......Hope these 2 horses goes off at a nice price and thanks for the heads up.

 

[SeattleSlew]

Smash Mouth,

Buddha has been a real treat to follow. Over the course of just a few months, he has come into his own (from his maiden and allowance races at Gulfstream in February). He has a lot of heart, as you saw in the stretch-run of the Wood. He's been my favorite Derby candidate thus far.

I just hope the Derby pace won't be his undoing. And first-time trainers in this race have a real dismal winning % (But Bond has been around the game a long time).

I will probably be going for a longshot for the sake of a price, but would still be happy to see Buddha in the winner's circle as a fan of the game.

SLEW

 

[SmashMouth]

What kind of price would you expect him to go off at? I'm thinking 7-1

 

[SeattleSlew]

I would grab 7/1 now if you want it. I think he will go off at more like 5/1 or 4/1, the second-choice behind Harlan's Holiday. There's no way to know with certainty, but I think you could do worse than 7/1 - and I don't see him being any better than that price. So you're safe with a pre-Derby wager.

SLEW

 

[yyz]

Isn't it true that most places won't refund your money on a pre-race day wager if the horse gets scratched?

 

[SeattleSlew]

Good point. That is true. I think Buddha is a lock to be at the post, but you never know.

SLEW

 

[Myron]

I doubt it. The favorite will be Harlan's Holiday at about 5-1 odds. With 20 horses in the field you'll get at least 8-1 on Buddha.

FWIW, I kind of like the horse that Buddha beat in the Wood - Megalio d'Oro. After the race, Bobby Frankel was absolutely ecstatic and said the horse ran "exactly the race he wanted." Also Bob Baffert (who is training War Emblem) said that Medalio d'Oro is strictly the horse to beat and "I would pay 5 million for him right now without blinking an eyelash."
Andrew Beyer apparently is also touting the horse which is usually a bad sign although he was right with Silver Charm and Fusiachi Pegasus.

The one horse that everyone seems to be avoiding like the plague is Harlan's Holiday. Apparently while he's been winning his times haven't been that great and he doesn't have the credentials of a Derby winner. In a 20 horse field I think the horse that wins can't be one that will come from way out of it.

Here's my plays if everything stays the same.

Win - Medalio D'oro and a small play on War Emblem

Exacta box - Medalio D'oro, Buddha, War Emblem and Saarland
Trifecta box - same 4 horses.

 

[SeattleSlew]

"In a 20 horse field I think the horse that wins can't be one that will come from way out of it."

Have you watched the Kentucky Derby before?

No offense, but the Kentucky Derby is a perfect set-up for a horse that comes from behind. Most winners have been no less than 6 lengths from the lead.

And in a 20 horse field, there are more horses that jockey for early positioning; leading to faster fractions; setting up the pace for horses such as Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus to name the most recent Derby winners who closed from the parking lot.

If Medaglia D' Oro wins he will have to rate. Same with Buddha. Silver Charm pulled off a change in running style specifically fit for the Derby, with success.....the only horse in recent memory to ever do so.

SLEW

 

[Myron]

One bet that really interests me is at OLY - the odds on the horse that finishes last. With 20 horses, I'd say about 1/3 of the field will have odds > 60-1 and no doubt one of them will be a dud that gets out quick and dies. The biggest concern of course is an injury to a horse that could cause one of the favorites to end up last. Still 11/2 odds on a 60-1 shot or worse to finish last is appealing.

 

[Myron]

Seattle Slew of course you're right. Come to think of it when Grindstone won the race it was also a full field and I think he came from last. Same quite a while back with Gato del Sol.

By the way, I hear there is a chance of rain in the forecast. How would a sloppy track affect the outcome? The last sloppy track I remember is when Go for Gin (possibly the worst horse ever to win a Derby) went wire to wire.

 

[SeattleSlew]

Myron, Go For Gin took over on the backstretch and held gamely. Gato Del Sol went from last to first. While Go For Gin took over early, neither horse went wire-to-wire.

The last horses to pull a wire-job was Winning Colors in 88, and Spend a Buck in 85.

SLEW

 

[superbook]

Match up at Oly: Came Home +180 vs Harlan's Holiday

Any thoughts?

 

[Myron]

Actually the more I think about the odds on the last place horse the less I like it. With a full field, 6 horses will be in the field bet which is probably the best bet for that last place finish.

Does anyone have a history of how much the "field" horses have gone off at in recent years? I'm guessing between 15 and 20 to 1 but I could be wrong.

 

[SeattleSlew]

I think the "field" bet has been completely elminated as of last year, and now all horses run uncoupled. They can now accept all 20 runners as separate betting interests instead of just 14.

SLEW

 

[SmashMouth]

Great stuff guys let's keep this thread going. If noone minds, or move it to horseracing forum. I put it here because I wanted casual fans to see it. By the way Medaglia d'oro Scares the Poop.com out of me

 

[Myron]

Thanks Seattle Slew - that's news to me. In that case I'm adding another unit to over 60-1 for the last place horse.

 

[Blitz]

Buddha Out of Derby

Buddha Out of Derby

http://msn.espn.go.com/horse/triplecrown02/s/2002/0503/1377412.html

 

[SeattleSlew]

You use the "L" word one time and this is what happens. I am realizing in the aftermath that the rematch between he and Medaglia D' Oro was the reason I was so excited about the Derby.

SLEW