Hey Larry, you're everywhere buddy...
THE BLUEGRASS
This is the most intriguing race for me. I'm not sure if Harlan's Holiday will be 100% cranked here (there's a reason they call this race a prep), and with him being 6/5 he offers no reason to try and believe otherwise. On the other hand, I think Booklet will be ready for his best effort. John Ward (a Kentucky native) grew up around this event, and appreciates the race as more than simply a Derby precursor.
Azillion was a heart-breaker for me in the Spiral. Went off at 7/1 and lost by a neck. If you look at the race, you will notice that race was run as fast as Harlan's Holiday 3 1/4 length victory in the Florida Derby (1:48 and 4) at the 1 1/16 mile distance. You also have to remember, that was Azillion's first time over the Turfway strip (he raced at Santa Anita and overseas as well). So maybe adapting to another new surface won't mean a complete lapse in progress.
Longshots for this race include Bob's Image and Straight Gin who may test Booklet early. I really wanted to include them somewhere due to the Keeneland speed-bias; but I haven't seen a race by either one YET that would win this event. Nevertheless, may include them on an exotic ticket when the time comes. But my main play will be:
**BOOKLET 5/2, AZILLION 4/1 (playing both to win)
THE WOOD MEMORIAL
Man, I thought I was going to be the only one on Buddha. Found this guy in an allowance race a couple of months back at a morning-line of 15/1 (the oddsmaker was drunk), he dropped to 2/1 and won easily. And then won easily again in allowance company. It's a telling sign when a horse is feeling great - bullet, bullet, bullet; all over the workout tab. I like Bond as a trainer; hopefully Pat Day doesn't hang too far back. Megdaglia D' Or is a short-price, deserving favorite; but I have already bet one Frankel chalkie this weekend, and I won't make the same mistake twice.
**BUDDHA to Win/Place (yes, i'm betting place)
THE ARKANSAS DERBY
This will be the first time in several years I won't actually be in the box for this race, I will certainly miss the live show. This may be my undoing, but I am throwing Assmussen out of his own race (he has two runners, a little more distinguished than most in terms of true Derby aspirations). Mr. Mellon was a $950,000 Keeneland purchase, trained by Elliot Walden (who won this event a few years back with one of my all time favorites, Victory Gallop). Mr Mellon has the tactical speed to be very dangerous here, with all of the early-foot, he might not be a complete disadvantage from post 10. I like Holdthehelm as a sleeper, from post 1. A shipper from the west, he has been trying a little bit of everything (different distance, surface, etc.) He will have a nice price, multi-dimensional, and Valenzuala is one of my favorites.
**MR MELLON 4/1, HOLDTHEHELM 6/1 (playing both to win)
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AND the "Prep" Pick-3 with these horses.....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SLEW
THE BLUEGRASS
This is the most intriguing race for me. I'm not sure if Harlan's Holiday will be 100% cranked here (there's a reason they call this race a prep), and with him being 6/5 he offers no reason to try and believe otherwise. On the other hand, I think Booklet will be ready for his best effort. John Ward (a Kentucky native) grew up around this event, and appreciates the race as more than simply a Derby precursor.
Azillion was a heart-breaker for me in the Spiral. Went off at 7/1 and lost by a neck. If you look at the race, you will notice that race was run as fast as Harlan's Holiday 3 1/4 length victory in the Florida Derby (1:48 and 4) at the 1 1/16 mile distance. You also have to remember, that was Azillion's first time over the Turfway strip (he raced at Santa Anita and overseas as well). So maybe adapting to another new surface won't mean a complete lapse in progress.
Longshots for this race include Bob's Image and Straight Gin who may test Booklet early. I really wanted to include them somewhere due to the Keeneland speed-bias; but I haven't seen a race by either one YET that would win this event. Nevertheless, may include them on an exotic ticket when the time comes. But my main play will be:
**BOOKLET 5/2, AZILLION 4/1 (playing both to win)
THE WOOD MEMORIAL
Man, I thought I was going to be the only one on Buddha. Found this guy in an allowance race a couple of months back at a morning-line of 15/1 (the oddsmaker was drunk), he dropped to 2/1 and won easily. And then won easily again in allowance company. It's a telling sign when a horse is feeling great - bullet, bullet, bullet; all over the workout tab. I like Bond as a trainer; hopefully Pat Day doesn't hang too far back. Megdaglia D' Or is a short-price, deserving favorite; but I have already bet one Frankel chalkie this weekend, and I won't make the same mistake twice.
**BUDDHA to Win/Place (yes, i'm betting place)
THE ARKANSAS DERBY
This will be the first time in several years I won't actually be in the box for this race, I will certainly miss the live show. This may be my undoing, but I am throwing Assmussen out of his own race (he has two runners, a little more distinguished than most in terms of true Derby aspirations). Mr. Mellon was a $950,000 Keeneland purchase, trained by Elliot Walden (who won this event a few years back with one of my all time favorites, Victory Gallop). Mr Mellon has the tactical speed to be very dangerous here, with all of the early-foot, he might not be a complete disadvantage from post 10. I like Holdthehelm as a sleeper, from post 1. A shipper from the west, he has been trying a little bit of everything (different distance, surface, etc.) He will have a nice price, multi-dimensional, and Valenzuala is one of my favorites.
**MR MELLON 4/1, HOLDTHEHELM 6/1 (playing both to win)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
AND the "Prep" Pick-3 with these horses.....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SLEW
