Not going to get too heavily involved but Woods certainly creates a market where there are some big prices about - 2 that stand out to me are Pettersen 125/1 Heathorns and Richard Green 125/1 Hills - I imagine my interest will be left at that
Deutsche Bank Open
- Thread starter Ian
- Start date
I noticed Scott at 50/1 with Heathorns. Shot a great final rd 65 and goes to a course where heavy scoring is likely to be essential. Hate to lay too much on anyone this week with Woods playing.
Prices look a bit skinny to me.... a few of the outsiders are bigger than usual as mentioned above... but W Hill go even money Tiger (suppose Clive took all the 5/4!) then 12/1 Goosen & 14/1 Harrington, to my mind this week it should be 20/1 bar Tiger.
A tell tale sign is there are plenty of books up early trying to cash in on a poor value event.
A tell tale sign is there are plenty of books up early trying to cash in on a poor value event.
early picks, left my notes at home, so cannot give full reasons why..
1 ew Campbell 25/1 Surrey..2nd last year, good week at B&H after month off...sounds quite confident on web..
0.5 ew O'Malley 100/1 SportingOdds..placed last year..going steadily enough, with good GIR stats..needed here (50/1 Surrey)
0.5 ew Green 125/1 Hills (thanks Ian!) backed last week..need I say more, but one bad round ruined chances of better placing, so gets another chance..
1 ew Campbell 25/1 Surrey..2nd last year, good week at B&H after month off...sounds quite confident on web..
0.5 ew O'Malley 100/1 SportingOdds..placed last year..going steadily enough, with good GIR stats..needed here (50/1 Surrey)
0.5 ew Green 125/1 Hills (thanks Ian!) backed last week..need I say more, but one bad round ruined chances of better placing, so gets another chance..
Another downer on this event is that is appears to finish on Monday instead of Sunday... this could make all the difference as while at work on Monday I will be unable to stick pins in my wax effigies of opposing players when they putt... no bet.
My picks this week are 16/1 Goosen at Sports.com, 33/1 Campbell at Luvbet and 40/1 Scott at Bet365.
Goosen finished 14th last year when he had the worst of conditions and was 2nd the year before. Campbell showed a return to form last week and was 2nd last year. I'm also giving Scott another chance on a course that should suit him.
Goosen finished 14th last year when he had the worst of conditions and was 2nd the year before. Campbell showed a return to form last week and was 2nd last year. I'm also giving Scott another chance on a course that should suit him.
There is some 33/1 Campbell at Betfair if you are quick...Corals went 33/1 and now go 22/1...I must confess to an interest as have taken the 33/1..
Is it National Sauerkraut Day on Monday? Golf tournaments should only finish on Monday if it is an English Bank Holiday. I blame Langer.
Have had to play on Luvbets top GB and Ire market again - same selection as last week - Harrington - this week opened at 15/2 - not sure what it is now though
They don't call me bettingmad for nothing... wilted in the face of poor quotes... but tempted for a small interest by Sports.com's 18/1 Goosen & 16/1 Harrington in the 4 place betting.
Finally tempted into having a bet by the 33/1 Coral went about Campbell.
Excellent here last year and played well at the Belfry.
Excellent here last year and played well at the Belfry.
For some reason I did this:
Woods 7/4 @ Sports.com 10 Units win.
Goosen 18/1 @ Sports.com
Harrington 16/1 @ Sports.com both 1 unit win only.
Campbell 33/1 @ Eurobet 1/2 unit win only.
Scott 50/1 @ Heathorns 1 Unit ew.
Weather looks to be good for scoring once again this week. Although massive course changes, scoring from what I hear may drop a couple but it's still going to take some low numbers. I'll take Woods to win with the best of the rest in waiting if something goes wrong.
Woods 7/4 @ Sports.com 10 Units win.
Goosen 18/1 @ Sports.com
Harrington 16/1 @ Sports.com both 1 unit win only.
Campbell 33/1 @ Eurobet 1/2 unit win only.
Scott 50/1 @ Heathorns 1 Unit ew.
Weather looks to be good for scoring once again this week. Although massive course changes, scoring from what I hear may drop a couple but it's still going to take some low numbers. I'll take Woods to win with the best of the rest in waiting if something goes wrong.
Outright plays (1.5 units):
Padraig Harrington to finish in the top-four 3.75/1 @ Centrebet
Tiger has been beaten by both Westwood (this event in 2000) and Bjorn (2001 Dubai Desert Classic) in Europe and by Clarke in last year's WGC Matchplay, so a precedent has been set. However, Harrington is a rather different player. He just doesn't win enough and last week's 3rd place finish was another example of his failings to seize his opportunities. In great form, as ever, and with a top-5 finish here last year, I expect him to finish highly. But even if he beats Tiger, I'll be surprised if he wins. A very conservative play on Padraig.
Michael Campbell to win 33/1 e.w. @ LuvBet
Cambo should have beaten Tiger last year. He had a 10-shot lead over him after 36 holes, but surrendered that when errant driving cost him a 3rd round 73 to Tiger's 63. But even then it took a holed 7-iron from Tiger at the 13th to move ahead of the Kiwi and ultimately claim victory. I don't know if he can win a second time around, but he comes into the event from a top-3 finish at the Belfry - his third of the season - and has already won on German soil - 2000 German Masters. Value play at these odds.
John Daly to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365, BetDirect or UKBetting
Hadn't played the course in the old format, but it looks to suit Big John's game. There are two par-fives in the first three holes! Secured a top-10 finish last week at the Belfry in his first start since withdrawing after an opening 66 in the WorldCom Classic and should have high expectations on his return to Germany. Last year he won the prestigious BMW International in August and finished 2nd in the German Masters. If the course plays as expected, he could be a genuine contender (if he makes it to the weekend).
Padraig Harrington to finish in the top-four 3.75/1 @ Centrebet
Tiger has been beaten by both Westwood (this event in 2000) and Bjorn (2001 Dubai Desert Classic) in Europe and by Clarke in last year's WGC Matchplay, so a precedent has been set. However, Harrington is a rather different player. He just doesn't win enough and last week's 3rd place finish was another example of his failings to seize his opportunities. In great form, as ever, and with a top-5 finish here last year, I expect him to finish highly. But even if he beats Tiger, I'll be surprised if he wins. A very conservative play on Padraig.
Michael Campbell to win 33/1 e.w. @ LuvBet
Cambo should have beaten Tiger last year. He had a 10-shot lead over him after 36 holes, but surrendered that when errant driving cost him a 3rd round 73 to Tiger's 63. But even then it took a holed 7-iron from Tiger at the 13th to move ahead of the Kiwi and ultimately claim victory. I don't know if he can win a second time around, but he comes into the event from a top-3 finish at the Belfry - his third of the season - and has already won on German soil - 2000 German Masters. Value play at these odds.
John Daly to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365, BetDirect or UKBetting
Hadn't played the course in the old format, but it looks to suit Big John's game. There are two par-fives in the first three holes! Secured a top-10 finish last week at the Belfry in his first start since withdrawing after an opening 66 in the WorldCom Classic and should have high expectations on his return to Germany. Last year he won the prestigious BMW International in August and finished 2nd in the German Masters. If the course plays as expected, he could be a genuine contender (if he makes it to the weekend).
Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Nick Faldo to beat Paul Casey -110 @ LuvBet [4.5 units]
Faldo won a hat-trick of matchups last week and I'm hoping he'll hit a double this week! Highly creditable 11th place finish last week was evidence enough that he'd brought his Masters and TPC (first three rounds) form with him. In fact, with the exception of the two weeks that covered the Malaysian Open (mc) and the Dubai Desert Classic (40th), his form this year has been a revelation. Many things have been expected of Casey this year, but he has failed to live up to them so far with a poor early season on the PGA Tour. This will be his second start on the European Tour this season and he can only improve on his 77-76 last week.
Nick Faldo to beat Peter O'Malley -118 @ Easybets [3 units]
Excellent, as ever, on the Australasian Tour, O'Malley has not yet found his game in Europe, finishing over-par in both the French Open and the Benson & Hedges International. Has played well on this course previously, but he had been in better form at the time and should struggle against a rejuvenated Faldo.
Bernhard Langer to beat Adam Scott -111 @ BetandWin
Siding with the dependably consistent and fully-committed Langer in this matchup. Secured a top-25 finish on his first start in Europe this season and has an outstanding record in his own country. Scott is much more erratic - it took the lowest round of the day on Sunday to haul him into a top-20 position and his record in the three German events last year was unimpressive. Top-20 finish for Langer; anywhere for Scott.
John Daly to beat Adam Scott -115 @ Five Dimes
After the dependable Langer, this can hardly be a play on consistency over unpredictability! Could see two 80s from this pair or two 63s. But Daly has been more consistent this year and willing to save a round than in previous seasons. He also comes into this event off a top-10 finish and has a much more impressive record in Germany than Scott.
Lee Westwood to beat Stephen Leaney -110 @ LuvBet [3 units]
Two players I would look to oppose at the moment and I can't see this lasting beyond Friday. But Westwood is a double-winner of this event (1998 and 2000), albeit at Gut Kaden, and so we should see a more positive outlook from the Englishman this week. Leaney has missed both his starts in Europe this season with a lowest 18-hole score of 74. Definitely one to oppose.
Nick Faldo to beat Paul Casey -110 @ LuvBet [4.5 units]
Faldo won a hat-trick of matchups last week and I'm hoping he'll hit a double this week! Highly creditable 11th place finish last week was evidence enough that he'd brought his Masters and TPC (first three rounds) form with him. In fact, with the exception of the two weeks that covered the Malaysian Open (mc) and the Dubai Desert Classic (40th), his form this year has been a revelation. Many things have been expected of Casey this year, but he has failed to live up to them so far with a poor early season on the PGA Tour. This will be his second start on the European Tour this season and he can only improve on his 77-76 last week.
Nick Faldo to beat Peter O'Malley -118 @ Easybets [3 units]
Excellent, as ever, on the Australasian Tour, O'Malley has not yet found his game in Europe, finishing over-par in both the French Open and the Benson & Hedges International. Has played well on this course previously, but he had been in better form at the time and should struggle against a rejuvenated Faldo.
Bernhard Langer to beat Adam Scott -111 @ BetandWin
Siding with the dependably consistent and fully-committed Langer in this matchup. Secured a top-25 finish on his first start in Europe this season and has an outstanding record in his own country. Scott is much more erratic - it took the lowest round of the day on Sunday to haul him into a top-20 position and his record in the three German events last year was unimpressive. Top-20 finish for Langer; anywhere for Scott.
John Daly to beat Adam Scott -115 @ Five Dimes
After the dependable Langer, this can hardly be a play on consistency over unpredictability! Could see two 80s from this pair or two 63s. But Daly has been more consistent this year and willing to save a round than in previous seasons. He also comes into this event off a top-10 finish and has a much more impressive record in Germany than Scott.
Lee Westwood to beat Stephen Leaney -110 @ LuvBet [3 units]
Two players I would look to oppose at the moment and I can't see this lasting beyond Friday. But Westwood is a double-winner of this event (1998 and 2000), albeit at Gut Kaden, and so we should see a more positive outlook from the Englishman this week. Leaney has missed both his starts in Europe this season with a lowest 18-hole score of 74. Definitely one to oppose.
Nick O'Hern to beat Paul Lawrie 10/11 @ Luvbet (3 points)
Lawrie has had some shockers this season (81 in the Canaries!)and if it were not for a relatively good showing last week I think that he would never be on offer in this match. He's missed 4 of last 6 cuts (admittedly 2 in Masters and TPC) and since the Dunhill has shown little. O'Hern has made cut on both his trips to Europe this year, played very solidly particulary in France
Nick Faldo to beat Paul Casey 10/11 @ Luvbet (3 points)
With Stanley on the below. Missed on Little last week but think this week has just as good as chance. Nick is reminiscent of the Nick of old with plenty of nice par golf and Casey has done nithing to warrant support last few weeks. Prefer this to O'Malley whose course form here combined with steady last couple of weeks could pose threat.
Lawrie has had some shockers this season (81 in the Canaries!)and if it were not for a relatively good showing last week I think that he would never be on offer in this match. He's missed 4 of last 6 cuts (admittedly 2 in Masters and TPC) and since the Dunhill has shown little. O'Hern has made cut on both his trips to Europe this year, played very solidly particulary in France
Nick Faldo to beat Paul Casey 10/11 @ Luvbet (3 points)
With Stanley on the below. Missed on Little last week but think this week has just as good as chance. Nick is reminiscent of the Nick of old with plenty of nice par golf and Casey has done nithing to warrant support last few weeks. Prefer this to O'Malley whose course form here combined with steady last couple of weeks could pose threat.
Incidentally, saw a couple of nice matches with betandwin - Petterson to beat Rose and O'Malley vs Cejka but prices collapsed within a couple of hours - betandwin's book doesn't seem to stand up to much! On a similar vein what experience do you have Stanley with Luvbet? Their maximum matchup bet level fluctuates a little but seems to have stuck on ?50 - do yo uhave similar experience?
Only allowed ?25 at Luvbet...stems from a period when I took quite a bit from them on the all weather...quite pleased really as the bets I had with them after that were all losers!
Still, they are fearless compared to Simon Bold , with whom I was allowed the princely sum of ?5, even on match bets!
Still, they are fearless compared to Simon Bold , with whom I was allowed the princely sum of ?5, even on match bets!
I have been allowed double that and got telephone clearance for more. But admittedly I only started using them last week, so no doubt the reins will be pulled in if I win these two 
Just so long as they pay, there are ways and means
Just so long as they pay, there are ways and means
adding 0.5 ew Jiminez 80/1 Ladbrokes..had him in the back of my mind all week..price too big to avoid losing sleep because I have not backed..have to admit Chapman in Post was big memory jogger...
Mid-point update:
Faldo/Casey LOST by 1
Faldo/O'Malley LOST by 1
Langer/Scott Trails by 1
Daly/Scott LOST by 3
Westwood/Leaney LOST by 1
Harrington 31st
Campbell 50th
Daly mc
Geez! Lost over 10 units on one-shot losses Made 30 units on the B&H last week and looked like I'll give at least half of them back this week! Only remains for Langer to save any return on this event. Unbelievable!
Faldo/Casey LOST by 1
Faldo/O'Malley LOST by 1
Langer/Scott Trails by 1
Daly/Scott LOST by 3
Westwood/Leaney LOST by 1
Harrington 31st
Campbell 50th
Daly mc
Geez! Lost over 10 units on one-shot losses
Made 30 units on the B&H last week and looked like I'll give at least half of them back this week! Only remains for Langer to save any return on this event. Unbelievable! 