Deutsche Bank - SAP Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Justin Rose to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, UKBetting and Totalbet
Unlike most European Tour players who concentrate on the PGA Tour rather than follow the Tour and its weaker events, Rose has been a success. He steadily improved with cuts made in all four starts before the Masters, but thereafter his form has been very impressive. He was the leader after 36 holes at Augusta and showed great character in his comeback 4th round and since then he has finished in the top-10 in two of three starts. This may be his first start in Europe of the season, but it is in an event in which he has finished in the top-5 in the last two seasons. Plenty of reasons to support Rose this week.

Angel Cabrera to win 28/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
With finishes of 4th and 2nd in his last two starts, there is also good reason to back Cabrera. He was also impressive on the PGA Tour with top-20 finishes in his last two events before the Masters and he has finished in the top-20 on each of the last two occasions that this course has been used. With a good number of the leading players opposable of the basis of having played on a different continent last week - Els, Harrington, Price, Cejka and Jimenez - this looks an open contest and 28/1 is a price that will not last for long.

Eduardo Romero to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ Five Dimes, SkyBet and Paddy Power
Discounting co-sanctioned events which are played on a different continent, Romero's ratio of top-5 finishes to starts makes these odds look very generous. In 2002, he finished in the top-5 in four of twelve starts, in 2003 it was two out of six and this year it is one out of two - he was 2nd in the British Masters two weeks ago. It is not that his course form is poor as he has finished in the top-25 on each of the last two occasions that this course has been used. So I'll gladly take these odds on the European Tour's equivalent of Jay Haas.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

Angel Cabrera to beat Michael Campbell -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Campbell has simply been disappointing since the Tour moved to the Northern Hemisphere. He has not had a top-10 finish since the Heineken Classic in Australia three months ago. In this form, he is no match for Cabrera.
(also available at Five Dimes)

Paul Casey to beat Padraig Harrington +100 @ Five Dimes [2pts]
Opposing Harrington not just because he played and finished a lowly 60th in China at the weekend, but also because he played injured. His course form might be better than Casey's, but he looks very unlikely to secure the top-10 he will need to beat Casey this time around.

Ernie Els to beat Darren Clarke -170 @ Five Dimes
At least coming from Texas, Els has the time zones working in his favour compared to Harrington. For these odds to be value, Els would have to win this matchup at least 63% of the time. It is enough that in their five common European Tour events over the past year, Els has finished ahead of Clarke every time.
(also available at Expekt, Centrebet and Pinnacle)

Anders Hansen to beat Lee Westwood -128 @ Five Dimes
Two consecutive top-10 finishes and a top-10 finish the last time that this course was used looks very impressive for Hansen; even more so when compared to Westwood who has not had a top-10 since the Dunhill Championship in South Africa in January and has missed the cut in two of three starts on this course (52nd on the other occasion).

Anders Hansen to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -111 @ Stan James [2pts]
Also opposing Gonzalez who must have used up his year's supply of luck - necessary because of his wild driving - when finishing 1st and 2nd in the two Spanish events last month. He missed the cut the following week and with Hansen having finished ahead of the Argentinean in all their common events this year, he will need to do much better to beat hansen this week.

Eduardo Romero to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -115 @ Intertops [2pts]
If Hansen can beat Gonzalez, then so should the outright selection, Eduardo Romero. After that burst of form last month, Gonzalez should be quickly returned to being, at best, the 3rd-best Argentinean player on the Tour.
(available widely)

Eduardo Romero to beat Lee Westwood -114 @ Expekt [2pts]
Logical consequence of the above. Romero is an outright selection tipped to go close again, while Westwood has continued to struggle with consistency. He looked to be in superb form in the 2nd round at the British Masters two weeks ago, but then his confidence looked very fragile over the weekend.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes
Romero -124 over Gonzalez @ Pinn
got there a little late on this one but still like it.

Price + 105 over Jiminez @ 5 Dimes
Got there when dropped now -115
2529264 05/18/04 S 05/20/04 NICK PRICE (TOURN) +105 MIGUEL A. JIMENEZ (TOURN) $50.00 $52.50

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1pt):

Adam Scott to beat Thomas Bjorn -111 @ BetandWin
Both missed their last two cuts - the BellSouth Classic and the Masters - but Scott still finished ahead on both occasions as he has done in their last four common events. Bjorn did finish 6th on this course two years ago, but otherwise has a dreadful record around St Leon Rot and doesn't look to be playing well enough to repeat that top-10 finish.

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (? unit ew @ ? odds 1st 5 unless indicated)
O'Hern 100/1 @ Paddy Power
Canonica 150/1 @ Total Bet
N Price 33/1 @ Victor Chandler
A Cejka 50/1 @ Victor Chandler
R Gonzalez 50/1 @ Victor Chandler
Rocca 1000/1 @ Sky

J Rose 22/1 @ Total Bet (2 Units)

Also interested in A Hansen, Schwartz, Rodiles & Romero.

Good Luck!

 

[lal2000]

EW Doubles - piling on this week - feeling good after last weeks partial success. All with Sky, Sporting Odds, Chandler & Paddy Power.

Toms/Harrington
Tanaka/Cabrera
DiMarcoGoosen
Maruyama/Rose
Maruyama/Casey
Maruyama/N Price
Byrd/N Price
Mediate/Montgomerie
C Campbell/Davis
Garcia/Canonica
Perry/Rose
Perry/Casey
Love/Cejka
Cink/Immelman
Leonard/Rose
Sluman/Goosen
Hart/O'Hern
Mickelson/Rocca

Good luck!

 

[lostinamerica]

OPENERS:

A. I heard this while watching the video archive for the 2002 event: ? . . . same club, but a different 18 to (2001). 1st and last stay as they were, but the other 16 holes provide a new challenge . . .? I guess that means at least some tweaking of any course form from prior to 2002.

B. I?ve had Ernie Els penciled in for Wentworth for going on 365 days, pretty much as soon as I got to thinking about a confident post Myron offered prior to last year?s Volvo PGA: ?Els will win by 5 strokes.? I hope Ernie keeps the cork on that bottle until next week.

C. Looking at the pairings for the first round dripped with the look of the real European Tour for the first time in what seems like about seven months. Very interesting stuff as I went from the first pairing to the last.

D. Especially on Sunday (and on both Tours), antennae should be up for players hovering around the Top 50 in the World Golf Rankings and looking on task for crucial points before the U.S. Open.



OUTRIGHTS:

(1) Paul Casey(20/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Without a win for over a year now (but 5-3-19 in Germany since then), Casey will be on my short list every week at this price, at least until I see a run of tangible evidence to suggest a win is not in the cards anytime soon. This surely looks and feels like one of those instances in which the available course form is far from the mark in spotting compatibility.

(2) Raphael Jacquelin(80/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
I don?t think the vein Jacquelin tapped into while going like gangbusters to start the season (while building on three 3rd place finishes at the end of last year) is anywhere near exhausted, and the driving force behind that start (to-wit, earning a championship) remains tangible because of its elusiveness. Next up is a crack at his first event this season of this magnitude, a spot which so often unleashes, be it good or bad, what was always just below the surface (not that matters had retreated to a subterranean level, as T-20 last week in the dreary conditions Jacquelin despises, featured 71-69 over the weekend). In this instance, course form gave me more pause than with Casey; it?s funny to me how I think of Jacquelin as a good putter (by way of comparison with his having been paired with Thomas Levet in the World Cup), when in fact his putting is at least partly the culprit holding him back.

(3) Justin Rose(22/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
DTB observed last week that since paying more attention now that he has Golf Channel coverage of the European Tour, "one angle that has stood out is any player off pga tour has shot to win." I?ve thought the same thing before (i.e. Fred Funk and Jeff Sluman also come to mind in recent years), and I think everyone recognizes that the stern tests and setups week in and week out in the States demand that players have their whole game sharp, and the deep fields are ready to expose something just a little bit off . . . No doubt Justin is making the right choice in focusing on the American tour to kick start the year in his ambitious efforts to raise the level of his game . . . Big events and a big stage strike a chord with Rose, and a pairing with Els adds to the vibes that will set an early tone when the championship unfolds. . . .Justin?s brilliance out of bunkers is evidence of a great touch, but I?d like to see a lot more of the ?always been a good putter? stuff he claims as a matter of fact in his diary.

The presence of Els and a strong field still found me contemplating going 4 or 5 deep with my outright selections for this tournament, and believe it or not, my next choice was Greg Owen, and I had already laid about ? of a full stake on him when I read about his withdrawl. http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/news/story_get.dor?STORY_NAME=golf/04/05/19/GOLF_Owen.html (Looks like my conjecture on his chances wouldn't have held much water.) For more from the realm of believe it or not, now Peter Lawrie(200/1) and Sandy Lyle(400/1) are creeping into my thinking, along with Bjorn (how unsubstantiated of a hunch is that!), Levet (the form of his life, I really believe), Gallacher, Cabrera, Forsyth and Goosen (I guess the pairing with "Speedy" Harrington has been the deciding factor in laying off that one).

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

MATCHUPS:

Cabrera(+125) over Immelman/P.Price (1st round) for 1* @ Bet365

Casey(-130) over Harrington (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Thomas Bjorn(33/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
That seems a far better chance than I deserve to make something out of nothing.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 0-3; -3.00pts

Rose mc
Cabrera mc
Romero 39th

Promised to be a lot better once Romero completed the first two rounds in 69 to lie 8th after 36 holes. He was 13 shots worse over the weekend.

Matchups - Final update: 4-4-0; +1.09pts

Cabrera/Campbell LOST by 11
Casey/Harrington LOST by 18
Els/Clarke LOST by 1
Hansen/Westwood WON by 15
Hansen/Gonzalez WON by 19
Romero/Gonzalez WON by 19
Romero/Westwood WON by 8
Scott/Bjorn LOST by 10

Blown over by the 2nd round winds! None of the eight plays had been behind after the 1st round, but they struggled in the windy afternoon conditions on Friday. Some large margins either way with only Els going close, though he couldn't buy a putt for three days. Looked promising, but in the end only profited from opposing Westwood and Gonzalez.

European Tour ytd
Outrights: 6-19; -8.96pts
Matchups: 19-19; -1.06pts