DIRTYDOG's "BEST BET" and thoughts for AFC/NFC Championships....Good Luck!
:clap:
Hello my friends..
I was fortunate enough to have picked up in the NFL playoffs where I left off to close out the College Bowl season with regard to starting this years NFL playoffs with a mark of 5-0 ATS, I thought Pittsburgh had a decent shot at pulling the upset over the Colts last week, however, unfortunately I did not trust them enough and instead elected to simply take the offered points, this week I have elected to steer clear to Pittsburgh's contest at Denver for several reasons, but that may change if I can get +3.5 by game time because I will then buy the 1/2 point and take Pittsburgh +4 which is nice value in this situation in my humble opinion.
I see Denver and Pittsburgh as two evenly matched teams, however, the Bronco's hold a definative edge as they are well rested, are at home, and have an opening playoff game under their belts, Pittsburgh meanwhile is on the road for the third straight week and are also on the road for the 5th time in a 6 week span, some of that is offset by the fact that Indianapolis is not that far from Pittsburgh and neither is Cincy, meaning that Pittsburgh did not accumulate alot of "air miles".
However, with that being said I can't help but feel that the odds maker has set the line too low for this contest and that the line should really be Denver -5, does this mean then that value exists with Denver? The answer to that is NO!...the reason being is due to the fact that although Denver defeated the Patriots by 14 points, they were aided by an eye opening FIVE patriot T/O's in a game that saw New England roll up a total of 420 yards to Denver's 286 yards.
Pittsburgh is at least the equivalent of New England and should be able to move the ball up and down the field on Denver just as New England did and can win in straight up fashion if they avoid the T/O's, I really believe both Championship contests will exceed the posted total but I do not have enough confidence to place a wager on it, with that being said those that like "teasers" might consider a 4 team 13 point teaser with both OVERS along with Pittsburgh and Seattle for a small play.
In the end for the time being I have elected to simply back what I consider to be the best wager on the board and that is Seattle -3.5, the analysis is below, I wouldn't wait long before playing because you would then risk losing value.
take care and be well my friend
Jim
________________________________________
SEATTLE ?3.5 Caro
Sunday 1/22/06 6:30 pm est
3***Play Selection
I backed Seattle last week over the visiting Redskins and are going to back them once again this week against the visiting Panthers, in my humble opinion we are getting excellent line value with the Hawks in this spot when considering that the odds maker opened with Seattle ?5.5 or -6 depending on where you looked and the current line has been bet down to Seattle ?3.5.
Last week for ?value-sake? I recommended a three team money-line parlay with Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Chicago because I thought the possibility of a Steelers upset existed and thought the Bears had a good shot at winning straight up against Carolina, however, I did not trust young QB Rex Grossman and thus the reason for not wagering on the Bears.
Needless to say Pittsburgh did in fact pull the upset over the Colts, however, the Bears loss can be pinned on their defense and not young Grossman who overall performed quite well, with that being said young Grossman was able to hang 21 points on the scoreboard against Carolina which is 21 more points than Eli Manning did the previous week and 10 more points than erratic Michael Vick was able to the week prior to that.
This week is totally different for the Panthers as they are playing on the road for the fourth straight week and are also on the road for the fifth time in a six week span and that is in addition to having to fly to the left coast for this contest, can you say "Road Weary"? The Panthers last loss occurred at home 24-20 against the Cowboys who by the way have an experienced QB under center in Drew Bledsoe, meanwhile, the Panthers last three wins have all come on the road against Atlanta, the Giants, and Chicago.
Keeping in mind that Atlanta was a disinterested team because they were eliminated from playoff contention the week before and have a QB under center named Vick who is one of the very worst passing QB's in the league, and keeping in mind that the G-men had young QB Eli Manning under center who did not even complete 55% of his tosses this year and was making his first time playoff start, and then remembering that Chicago started young QB Rex Grossman who was making only his EIGHTH career NFL start....its not a stretch to say that the Panther defense has not been tested as of late.
Seattle has what Carolina is not used to playing against and that is an experienced QB under center in Matt Hasselbeck who has a TD to INT ratio of 24 to 9 and finished with a passers rating of 98.2 which was tops in the NFC, meanwhile, Panther QB Jake Delhomme has a TD to INT ratio of 24-16 and a passer rating of 88.1, of the two QB?s Hasselbeck is the more mobile and has the better running game behind him with RB Shaun Alexander who by the way won the NFL rushing crown this season while Carolina is forced to counter with their third string RB Nick Goings because #1 and #2 RB?s Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster are out with injuries.
The public is in love with Carolina at the moment because they knocked off a high profile Giant team and then knocked off what was supposed to be the best defense in the league at Chicago, meanwhile, Seattle is the forgotten team because their opening playoff win versus the Redskins, which was a 20-10 win and cover for us, was a ?dull game?, I look at it from a different viewpoint with regard to Seattle?s playoff win representing freedom from the ?playoff monkey? which was clinging onto their collective backs.
In the big picture there is a reason Seattle was the #1 seed and earned home field through out the playoffs while Carolina was reduced to playing a wildcard playoff game on the road and its called consistency, both Seattle and Carolina had relatively easy schedules this year but keep in mind that Seattle only lost three times this year with each loss occurring on the road, their first loss occurred at Jacksonville in their season opener and oddly enough another of their three seasonal losses occurred to close the season in a meaningless loss at Green Bay when Seattle elected to rest players, meanwhile, their only other loss was at Washington by a FG, I can see Carolina hanging around for the first quarter or so but I fully expect the Seahawk offense to take advantage of the road weary Panthers from that point on.
KEY STATS:
Seattle is well rested having had a bye week and should be back on track after loosening up last week against Washington, at home this season these Seahawks have posted a perfect record of 9-0 straight up and have covered 7 of their 9 home games ATS, a check of Seattle?s home game results show that the Hawks have won 6 of their 9 home games by 10 or more points and they have also won 3 home games by 20 or more points, meaning of course that the Hawks, who average 28.3 points per game, do not take their foot off the gas petal and continue attacking.
As already mentioned, Seattle RB Shaun Alexander is the NFL rushing king this year and by all accounts will definitely play, meanwhile, Carolina is reduced to using their third string RB Nick Goings because of injury and may be without DE Julius Peppers as well, this is nice to know because according to the ole history book Seattle is 12-1 straight up and 10-2-1 ATS this season in games in which they out rush their opponent, these teams met last year when Carolina visited as 8 point doggies, in that game Hawk RB Shaun Alexander ran wild in a 23-17 non-cover win, I think Alexander runs wild again but gets the cover this time around.
________________________________________
take care and good luck!
Jim
:clap:
Hello my friends..
I was fortunate enough to have picked up in the NFL playoffs where I left off to close out the College Bowl season with regard to starting this years NFL playoffs with a mark of 5-0 ATS, I thought Pittsburgh had a decent shot at pulling the upset over the Colts last week, however, unfortunately I did not trust them enough and instead elected to simply take the offered points, this week I have elected to steer clear to Pittsburgh's contest at Denver for several reasons, but that may change if I can get +3.5 by game time because I will then buy the 1/2 point and take Pittsburgh +4 which is nice value in this situation in my humble opinion.
I see Denver and Pittsburgh as two evenly matched teams, however, the Bronco's hold a definative edge as they are well rested, are at home, and have an opening playoff game under their belts, Pittsburgh meanwhile is on the road for the third straight week and are also on the road for the 5th time in a 6 week span, some of that is offset by the fact that Indianapolis is not that far from Pittsburgh and neither is Cincy, meaning that Pittsburgh did not accumulate alot of "air miles".
However, with that being said I can't help but feel that the odds maker has set the line too low for this contest and that the line should really be Denver -5, does this mean then that value exists with Denver? The answer to that is NO!...the reason being is due to the fact that although Denver defeated the Patriots by 14 points, they were aided by an eye opening FIVE patriot T/O's in a game that saw New England roll up a total of 420 yards to Denver's 286 yards.
Pittsburgh is at least the equivalent of New England and should be able to move the ball up and down the field on Denver just as New England did and can win in straight up fashion if they avoid the T/O's, I really believe both Championship contests will exceed the posted total but I do not have enough confidence to place a wager on it, with that being said those that like "teasers" might consider a 4 team 13 point teaser with both OVERS along with Pittsburgh and Seattle for a small play.
In the end for the time being I have elected to simply back what I consider to be the best wager on the board and that is Seattle -3.5, the analysis is below, I wouldn't wait long before playing because you would then risk losing value.
take care and be well my friend
Jim
________________________________________
SEATTLE ?3.5 Caro
Sunday 1/22/06 6:30 pm est
3***Play Selection
I backed Seattle last week over the visiting Redskins and are going to back them once again this week against the visiting Panthers, in my humble opinion we are getting excellent line value with the Hawks in this spot when considering that the odds maker opened with Seattle ?5.5 or -6 depending on where you looked and the current line has been bet down to Seattle ?3.5.
Last week for ?value-sake? I recommended a three team money-line parlay with Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Chicago because I thought the possibility of a Steelers upset existed and thought the Bears had a good shot at winning straight up against Carolina, however, I did not trust young QB Rex Grossman and thus the reason for not wagering on the Bears.
Needless to say Pittsburgh did in fact pull the upset over the Colts, however, the Bears loss can be pinned on their defense and not young Grossman who overall performed quite well, with that being said young Grossman was able to hang 21 points on the scoreboard against Carolina which is 21 more points than Eli Manning did the previous week and 10 more points than erratic Michael Vick was able to the week prior to that.
This week is totally different for the Panthers as they are playing on the road for the fourth straight week and are also on the road for the fifth time in a six week span and that is in addition to having to fly to the left coast for this contest, can you say "Road Weary"? The Panthers last loss occurred at home 24-20 against the Cowboys who by the way have an experienced QB under center in Drew Bledsoe, meanwhile, the Panthers last three wins have all come on the road against Atlanta, the Giants, and Chicago.
Keeping in mind that Atlanta was a disinterested team because they were eliminated from playoff contention the week before and have a QB under center named Vick who is one of the very worst passing QB's in the league, and keeping in mind that the G-men had young QB Eli Manning under center who did not even complete 55% of his tosses this year and was making his first time playoff start, and then remembering that Chicago started young QB Rex Grossman who was making only his EIGHTH career NFL start....its not a stretch to say that the Panther defense has not been tested as of late.
Seattle has what Carolina is not used to playing against and that is an experienced QB under center in Matt Hasselbeck who has a TD to INT ratio of 24 to 9 and finished with a passers rating of 98.2 which was tops in the NFC, meanwhile, Panther QB Jake Delhomme has a TD to INT ratio of 24-16 and a passer rating of 88.1, of the two QB?s Hasselbeck is the more mobile and has the better running game behind him with RB Shaun Alexander who by the way won the NFL rushing crown this season while Carolina is forced to counter with their third string RB Nick Goings because #1 and #2 RB?s Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster are out with injuries.
The public is in love with Carolina at the moment because they knocked off a high profile Giant team and then knocked off what was supposed to be the best defense in the league at Chicago, meanwhile, Seattle is the forgotten team because their opening playoff win versus the Redskins, which was a 20-10 win and cover for us, was a ?dull game?, I look at it from a different viewpoint with regard to Seattle?s playoff win representing freedom from the ?playoff monkey? which was clinging onto their collective backs.
In the big picture there is a reason Seattle was the #1 seed and earned home field through out the playoffs while Carolina was reduced to playing a wildcard playoff game on the road and its called consistency, both Seattle and Carolina had relatively easy schedules this year but keep in mind that Seattle only lost three times this year with each loss occurring on the road, their first loss occurred at Jacksonville in their season opener and oddly enough another of their three seasonal losses occurred to close the season in a meaningless loss at Green Bay when Seattle elected to rest players, meanwhile, their only other loss was at Washington by a FG, I can see Carolina hanging around for the first quarter or so but I fully expect the Seahawk offense to take advantage of the road weary Panthers from that point on.
KEY STATS:
Seattle is well rested having had a bye week and should be back on track after loosening up last week against Washington, at home this season these Seahawks have posted a perfect record of 9-0 straight up and have covered 7 of their 9 home games ATS, a check of Seattle?s home game results show that the Hawks have won 6 of their 9 home games by 10 or more points and they have also won 3 home games by 20 or more points, meaning of course that the Hawks, who average 28.3 points per game, do not take their foot off the gas petal and continue attacking.
As already mentioned, Seattle RB Shaun Alexander is the NFL rushing king this year and by all accounts will definitely play, meanwhile, Carolina is reduced to using their third string RB Nick Goings because of injury and may be without DE Julius Peppers as well, this is nice to know because according to the ole history book Seattle is 12-1 straight up and 10-2-1 ATS this season in games in which they out rush their opponent, these teams met last year when Carolina visited as 8 point doggies, in that game Hawk RB Shaun Alexander ran wild in a 23-17 non-cover win, I think Alexander runs wild again but gets the cover this time around.
________________________________________
take care and good luck!
Jim
