DIRTYDOG's "Trend analysis" for NFL Conference-Semi Final Round....Good Luck!
:cool;
Hello my friends..
Below you will find some notes and thoughts that I have prepared and gathered that might help you in your quest for a winning weekend with regard to this weeks upcoming playoff games, good luck!
take care and be well
Jim
NFL Playoffs
Conference Semi-final round
While studying the past history of this round I found some pretty interesting nuggets of information my friends, for example, would you believe that the history book shows that home teams in this Conference semi final round posted an amazing record of 17-3 straight up and 13-6-1 ATS from 1998 to 2002, however, in 2003 home teams went 2-2 straight up and 0-4 ATS in this round before reverting to previous form by posting a mark of 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS in this round last year which of course means that home teams in this round are now 23-5 straight up and 16-11-1 ATS over the past seven years.
Home teams having historically won 23 of their last 28 games in straight up fashion in this round over the past seven years should be no surprise and really makes sense when considering that these homers are the "Cream of the crop" having earned a first round bye on the basis of winning their division and in most cases having the better regular season record over the wildcard teams that played in the first round and now advanced to this round.
Looking back to 1990, which was the beginning of "Free agency" as we know it today, I wanted to see if this trend of home team dominance applied over the long term, to no surprise I found that since 1990 home teams in this semi final round have posted an amazing record of 49-11 straight up and 35-23-2 ATS!!
As you can see my friends, if you had merely wagered on every home team in this round you would have gone a nifty 35-23-2 ATS for a winning rate of 60.34%, not a bad return on your investment for blindly backing the home teams in this round huh?
Or for that matter if you had simply wagered on every home team in this round via the money-Line and skipped the point spread all together you would have won 49 of 60 money-Line wagers since 1990 for a winning rate of 81.67%!!
I was wondering how many of these teams that won straight up in this round also covered the posted point spread, so I decided to take a look at the long term trends in order to get a large sampling as there are only four of these Conference semi games in a season, thus I went back to check how many teams not only won but covered the point spread in this round over the past 21 years, would you believe that straight up winners in this Conference semi final round have posted a mark of 74-15-3 ATS for a winning rate of 83.15%.
Okay then, we now know that home teams in this round have gone 23-5 straight up over the past seven years and that home teams in this round have gone 49-11 straight up in this round since 1990, we also now know that teams regardless of being home or away that win in this conference semi-final round in straight up fashion have also covered the posted point spread 83.15% of the time.
As you can see from the trends above we now know to give the home teams in this round a good strong "Look see" regardless of what line is attached to the contest, we also know that if we happen to like a doggie in this round that it is best to play that doggie on the "money line" for maximum value.
With regard to home teams having gone 49-11 straight up in this round since 1990, I decided to see if I could find anything in common with the eleven straight up losses, I found out that AFC teams lost 8 of the games while NFC teams only lost 3 of the games, meaning that history shows that AFC teams are more likely to be upset in this round than NFC teams.
I also found out that of the 11 straight up losses suffered by home teams in this round, only TWICE was the winning visitor a team that was a road team in the Wildcard round, in other words my friends, teams that played on the road in the Wildcard round and then were on the road again in this round have only pulled upsets two times since 1990.
Jacksonville pulled the outright upset in 1996 as 14 point doggies at Denver and in 1995 the Colts pulled the outright upset as 10.5 point doggies over the Chiefs, take note that a double digit point spread was attached in both instances of teams playing back to back road games, thus its not a huge leap that Denver and Kansas City in all likelihood were not as focused in those games as they should of been because they were such huge favorites.
History says that one of these four home teams will in all likelihood lose in straight up fashion because of the fact that it has happened 10 times since 1990 including twice in 2003 when the Colts pulled the upset at KC and Carolina pulled the upset at St Louis, meanwhile, since 1990 home teams have swept all four games a total of six times while oddly enough my friends, since 1990 only twice has two home teams lost in this round in the same year (1995) (2003).
Why are the above items that I have laid out so important? Simple my friends, each and every team playing this weekend is participating in this round because they are supposedly a good team, meaning that we need to find an edge if we want to be successful, history can at times give you that needed edge if you can properly read the historical results and have faith in them once you make your mind up.
take care and be well
Jim
:cool;
:cool;
Hello my friends..
Below you will find some notes and thoughts that I have prepared and gathered that might help you in your quest for a winning weekend with regard to this weeks upcoming playoff games, good luck!
take care and be well
Jim
NFL Playoffs
Conference Semi-final round
While studying the past history of this round I found some pretty interesting nuggets of information my friends, for example, would you believe that the history book shows that home teams in this Conference semi final round posted an amazing record of 17-3 straight up and 13-6-1 ATS from 1998 to 2002, however, in 2003 home teams went 2-2 straight up and 0-4 ATS in this round before reverting to previous form by posting a mark of 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS in this round last year which of course means that home teams in this round are now 23-5 straight up and 16-11-1 ATS over the past seven years.
Home teams having historically won 23 of their last 28 games in straight up fashion in this round over the past seven years should be no surprise and really makes sense when considering that these homers are the "Cream of the crop" having earned a first round bye on the basis of winning their division and in most cases having the better regular season record over the wildcard teams that played in the first round and now advanced to this round.
Looking back to 1990, which was the beginning of "Free agency" as we know it today, I wanted to see if this trend of home team dominance applied over the long term, to no surprise I found that since 1990 home teams in this semi final round have posted an amazing record of 49-11 straight up and 35-23-2 ATS!!
As you can see my friends, if you had merely wagered on every home team in this round you would have gone a nifty 35-23-2 ATS for a winning rate of 60.34%, not a bad return on your investment for blindly backing the home teams in this round huh?
Or for that matter if you had simply wagered on every home team in this round via the money-Line and skipped the point spread all together you would have won 49 of 60 money-Line wagers since 1990 for a winning rate of 81.67%!!
I was wondering how many of these teams that won straight up in this round also covered the posted point spread, so I decided to take a look at the long term trends in order to get a large sampling as there are only four of these Conference semi games in a season, thus I went back to check how many teams not only won but covered the point spread in this round over the past 21 years, would you believe that straight up winners in this Conference semi final round have posted a mark of 74-15-3 ATS for a winning rate of 83.15%.
Okay then, we now know that home teams in this round have gone 23-5 straight up over the past seven years and that home teams in this round have gone 49-11 straight up in this round since 1990, we also now know that teams regardless of being home or away that win in this conference semi-final round in straight up fashion have also covered the posted point spread 83.15% of the time.
As you can see from the trends above we now know to give the home teams in this round a good strong "Look see" regardless of what line is attached to the contest, we also know that if we happen to like a doggie in this round that it is best to play that doggie on the "money line" for maximum value.
With regard to home teams having gone 49-11 straight up in this round since 1990, I decided to see if I could find anything in common with the eleven straight up losses, I found out that AFC teams lost 8 of the games while NFC teams only lost 3 of the games, meaning that history shows that AFC teams are more likely to be upset in this round than NFC teams.
I also found out that of the 11 straight up losses suffered by home teams in this round, only TWICE was the winning visitor a team that was a road team in the Wildcard round, in other words my friends, teams that played on the road in the Wildcard round and then were on the road again in this round have only pulled upsets two times since 1990.
Jacksonville pulled the outright upset in 1996 as 14 point doggies at Denver and in 1995 the Colts pulled the outright upset as 10.5 point doggies over the Chiefs, take note that a double digit point spread was attached in both instances of teams playing back to back road games, thus its not a huge leap that Denver and Kansas City in all likelihood were not as focused in those games as they should of been because they were such huge favorites.
History says that one of these four home teams will in all likelihood lose in straight up fashion because of the fact that it has happened 10 times since 1990 including twice in 2003 when the Colts pulled the upset at KC and Carolina pulled the upset at St Louis, meanwhile, since 1990 home teams have swept all four games a total of six times while oddly enough my friends, since 1990 only twice has two home teams lost in this round in the same year (1995) (2003).
Why are the above items that I have laid out so important? Simple my friends, each and every team playing this weekend is participating in this round because they are supposedly a good team, meaning that we need to find an edge if we want to be successful, history can at times give you that needed edge if you can properly read the historical results and have faith in them once you make your mind up.
take care and be well
Jim
:cool;
