Looking at this trend this year shows that 12 out of 15 division home underdogs have covered. Does anybody that has any additional historical data think this is a good trend to watch? It looks like Buffalo and Arizona would fall into this one this week. Thanks for all the great work everyone does on here.
Division Home Underdogs?
- Thread starter wufdude
- Start date
bubba and I talked about this yesterday -- I would be cautious about doing either of the following:
1) going against it -- on "home division dog" alone, it makes some sense to play it
2) blindly betting on it from here on out -- it is very doubtful this continues to hit at an 87% clip, so to hop on now and think you've found an easy way to win is a recipe for losing
good luck.
1) going against it -- on "home division dog" alone, it makes some sense to play it
2) blindly betting on it from here on out -- it is very doubtful this continues to hit at an 87% clip, so to hop on now and think you've found an easy way to win is a recipe for losing
good luck.
As I have said before, no one is promising anything. I always look first for a game that I handicap to win. I always go over every game, with all tools available.
The div home dog is not a solution in itself, but it is a valuable handicapping tool. It is NOT meant to eliminate or replace the work of handicapping.
Never bet a team you dont like, EVER. This tool was meant to possibly eliminate a team you had thought about, or a different angle.
Its your money. Bet who you think is going to cover. If you dont do the work yourself, you are breaking every handicapping rule!!!!!
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indecision is the KEY to flexibility
[This message has been edited by 4bubba (edited 10-30-2001).]
The div home dog is not a solution in itself, but it is a valuable handicapping tool. It is NOT meant to eliminate or replace the work of handicapping.
Never bet a team you dont like, EVER. This tool was meant to possibly eliminate a team you had thought about, or a different angle.
Its your money. Bet who you think is going to cover. If you dont do the work yourself, you are breaking every handicapping rule!!!!!
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indecision is the KEY to flexibility
[This message has been edited by 4bubba (edited 10-30-2001).]
the situation is endless, although that percentage is quite impressive and not likely to continue at that clip. even if this could be proven over an extended period of time, the books cannot make these games a pick'em simply because they will be overwhelmed with bets on the better team.
the home divisional is a dog because it is an inferior team in performance, as simple as that, yet, they tend to "get up" for these special games.
the trend will continue in my opinion, and independent thinkers will continue to pick the team/line they want, but be a bit more cautious when facing these match-ups.
keep bringing these up in the forum, bubba, we need to be reminded all the time.
pep
the home divisional is a dog because it is an inferior team in performance, as simple as that, yet, they tend to "get up" for these special games.
the trend will continue in my opinion, and independent thinkers will continue to pick the team/line they want, but be a bit more cautious when facing these match-ups.
keep bringing these up in the forum, bubba, we need to be reminded all the time.
pep
Div home dogs since 1990 look like this :
2001 13/4/1 .765....su 11/7 .611
2000 19/22/1 .463....su 13/29 .310
1999 26/19/3 .578....su 21/27 .438
1998 18/20/1 .474....su 14/28 .333
1997 19/17/1 .528....su 16/21 .432
1996 21/12 .636....su 16/17 .485
1995 22/16 .579....su 18/20 .474
1994 10/13/1 .435....su 7/17 .292
1993 16/15 .516....su 9/22 .290
1992 17/19 .472....su 12/24 .333
1991 21/15/1 .583....su 12/25 .324
1990 14/18 .438....su 10/22 .313
this is the best they have done in 12 years...not likely to continue at this blistering pace
[This message has been edited by Statman02 (edited 10-31-2001).]
[This message has been edited by Statman02 (edited 10-31-2001).]
2001 13/4/1 .765....su 11/7 .611
2000 19/22/1 .463....su 13/29 .310
1999 26/19/3 .578....su 21/27 .438
1998 18/20/1 .474....su 14/28 .333
1997 19/17/1 .528....su 16/21 .432
1996 21/12 .636....su 16/17 .485
1995 22/16 .579....su 18/20 .474
1994 10/13/1 .435....su 7/17 .292
1993 16/15 .516....su 9/22 .290
1992 17/19 .472....su 12/24 .333
1991 21/15/1 .583....su 12/25 .324
1990 14/18 .438....su 10/22 .313
this is the best they have done in 12 years...not likely to continue at this blistering pace
[This message has been edited by Statman02 (edited 10-31-2001).]
[This message has been edited by Statman02 (edited 10-31-2001).]
stat
just curious if you have it available:
straight up wins?
is it that this year it is more competitive than others, or that the lines are stretched beyond reason?
or perhaps the betting is tilted heavily toward favorites this year, thus the bigger lines?
any other opinions?
pep
just curious if you have it available:
straight up wins?
is it that this year it is more competitive than others, or that the lines are stretched beyond reason?
or perhaps the betting is tilted heavily toward favorites this year, thus the bigger lines?
any other opinions?
pep
Statmen and Pep
I firmly feel that the salary cap depletions, injuries, and free agents is forever changing stats from the past. It seems people remember and live in the old days. teams like DAL, SF, PIT, & OAK won the Super Bowls all the time. The players never changed teams. When those teams started the season good, they play good all the way thru the season. They were consistant. The bad teams were consistant to. They started bad and continued bad. A bad team had NO chance of beating a good team.
Everything has changed. Because of the salary cap, there is very little quality depth. We very seldom seem to get accurate injury reports anymore. They seem to use "questionable' more and more to keep everyone guessing. And head coaches like Couglin from JAX waits until gametime to even tell his own team. This can make O/U very difficult to predict.
This is a totally different system than what was in place even 5 years ago. I expect trends like div home dog to become even more pronounced in the future. COW has a good topic in flying pigskins about underdogs that have played less games being 8-0.
If this is a "new world" of NFL trends and stats, we need everyone to dig out the winners before anyone else. Thats where the money is. The div home dog trend might fall apart, but were trying.
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indecision is the KEY to flexibility
I firmly feel that the salary cap depletions, injuries, and free agents is forever changing stats from the past. It seems people remember and live in the old days. teams like DAL, SF, PIT, & OAK won the Super Bowls all the time. The players never changed teams. When those teams started the season good, they play good all the way thru the season. They were consistant. The bad teams were consistant to. They started bad and continued bad. A bad team had NO chance of beating a good team.
Everything has changed. Because of the salary cap, there is very little quality depth. We very seldom seem to get accurate injury reports anymore. They seem to use "questionable' more and more to keep everyone guessing. And head coaches like Couglin from JAX waits until gametime to even tell his own team. This can make O/U very difficult to predict.
This is a totally different system than what was in place even 5 years ago. I expect trends like div home dog to become even more pronounced in the future. COW has a good topic in flying pigskins about underdogs that have played less games being 8-0.
If this is a "new world" of NFL trends and stats, we need everyone to dig out the winners before anyone else. Thats where the money is. The div home dog trend might fall apart, but were trying.
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indecision is the KEY to flexibility
GREAT comments, 4bubba. This is the kind of thing that EVERYONE who handicaps games in the NFL needs to not only read; but to understand what you are saying here. Thanks for posting this
Good comment bubba. I've been thinking the same thing for the past year or so and am changing my handicapping to allow for more of the intangibles. How can you explain Washington beating the Giants Sunday? Certain intangibles were lined up and affected the outcome. If you were to just go by the stats the Giants should have beaten the crap out of Washington. The big question is; what are the intangibles and how can they be handicapped? I think that's where trends are a valuable handicapping tool.
Statman02
Sorry it took me so long to respond. I didnt have the figures in front of me. I laminate each weeks results on the openning line sheet. Being line movement depends on how much is bet where, I stick with openning line for my own consistancy.
Week 1 had the Colts @ the JETS -1 at openning.
Week 2 had the JETS @ NE as a PICK at openning.
That is why I didnt use those 2 games in the trend. I was looking for div home dogs at openning, at least +1 point.
Great work on stats. If you can crunch some numbers for the last year and a half, maybe you can turn us on to a new trend. Thats what we are here for.
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indecision is the KEY to flexibility
[This message has been edited by 4bubba (edited 10-31-2001).]
Sorry it took me so long to respond. I didnt have the figures in front of me. I laminate each weeks results on the openning line sheet. Being line movement depends on how much is bet where, I stick with openning line for my own consistancy.
Week 1 had the Colts @ the JETS -1 at openning.
Week 2 had the JETS @ NE as a PICK at openning.
That is why I didnt use those 2 games in the trend. I was looking for div home dogs at openning, at least +1 point.
Great work on stats. If you can crunch some numbers for the last year and a half, maybe you can turn us on to a new trend. Thats what we are here for.
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indecision is the KEY to flexibility
[This message has been edited by 4bubba (edited 10-31-2001).]
my pleasure 4bub.....retired from work last June and I get to do this full time now...a dream job.....just need to make it pay lol
Another one of those retired guys. Good for you Stat02. 2 years from this last August 1st and IM counting. This free agency that got going in full swing 1996. Realy started to mess with old ideas starting in 1997. I agree that new ideas and trends should start there. Only one area I watch to use even if a little older that 1997. The coach. If a coach has a certain way he plays. He will try it no matter what team he coaches or the personnel he has. He may find problems first year with new team. But then he goes out through free agency and brings in what he wants. There for new coaches first year with new team or just new period. They have to be played very carefully. In most cases you will find first 4 weeks of season they are go against. This year was no differant. first four week was a strong 65% go against vs ATS. The 5th week bang 50%. However I still watch through out the season. When they make one of the new coaches a fav on the rd.I look first to go aginst that coach. I need very good reasons not to do it. GL
if you want to tweak this just a little bit farther this year Div HDs +7+ are 4/0 su @ ats.......and div HDs off 1 or more pointspread covers are 4/0 su @ ats....too small a sample to mean anything....but "perfect" trends are cute....both Ariz and Buff would qualify under one of these scenarios
Snake -
I've got home dogs going 23-17-3 this year (my own stats and closing lines). Doesn't look like much on the surface, but they started out 9-13-3 the first 4 weeks (when all the favs were covering like crazy), and since then have cranked it up to the tune of 14-4.
Also have home favs going 29-26 by my numbers. 23-9 first 4 weeks, 6-17 since.
And Unders topping Overs 50-47-2. Was 47-36-2 before last week, but Overs went 11-3 last week.
Good discussion everyone.
[This message has been edited by GM (edited 11-01-2001).]
I've got home dogs going 23-17-3 this year (my own stats and closing lines). Doesn't look like much on the surface, but they started out 9-13-3 the first 4 weeks (when all the favs were covering like crazy), and since then have cranked it up to the tune of 14-4.
Also have home favs going 29-26 by my numbers. 23-9 first 4 weeks, 6-17 since.
And Unders topping Overs 50-47-2. Was 47-36-2 before last week, but Overs went 11-3 last week.
Good discussion everyone.
[This message has been edited by GM (edited 11-01-2001).]
Good angles statman02. I guess because a team is an underdog even with an added home field advantage, it will probably never seem a great bet (even tho it is).
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indecision is the KEY to flexibility
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indecision is the KEY to flexibility
