Divisional Round

[Smitty]

Playoffs
Sides 4-0 +10.0
ML 1-1 +1.7
Totals 1-6 -15.8
Props 4-2 +3.1

Hmmm.... I usually do fairly well on totals. Well, another weekend full of overs will not be good for me.

Saturday

After liking the Jags all week, I'm having 2nd thoughts. Seeing way too much love for them, but the line has ticked back up to 9. I can't bet the Chiefs though. I'm just going to save the juice and take a shot on the ML. Which pretty much guarantees the Chiefs win but don't cover. Jags backers, you are welcome!

Oh, why can't I bet the Chiefs, you ask? Well, they haven't exactly been good at home this year ATS. In fact, when they beat Seattle by 14 as 10-pt favs, it was the only time they covered the spread at home, depending on what line you had against Jax and the Rams. Best case, they covered each of those by half a point. So they were basically 1-5-2 ATS at home. Their scoring at home has been VERY consistent. KC's points in home games.... 27, 30, 20, 20, 27, 26, 24, 27. Almost HAVE to bet them under 31.5 tomorrow.

That said, Jacksonville has the 30th-ranked pass defense, per DVOA rankings. And Mahomes lit them up in the first meeting, completing 26 of 35 for 331 yards (9.5/att). The game was not nearly as close as the final score made it appear. KC turned the ball over 3 times and gave up a late TD to make the score somewhat respectable.

Alright, I can't love either team here. The Jags probably have more confidence than is warranted after last week, but sometimes that can really boost a team.

Jax (ML) 2 to win 7.4
KC TT under (31.5, -120) 2 units
KC 1Q TT under (6.5) 2 to win 2.7


I'm not betting on the Gmen in the late game, I'm betting against Philly. The Eagles had the absolute worst strength of schedule in the league. I think they are very overrated, so I'm taking a shot with this overachieving Giants team.

I'm focusing on the first matchup between these two teams for obvious reason. NY actually did an ok job against the pass. Hurts completed 21 of 31 for 217 yards. That's not bad, but it's only 7 yards/att. That was his 6th-worse # of the season. (He also only averaged 6.5 yards/att in the final game of the season against the Giants). However, Philly killed NY on the ground, rushing 30 times for 254 yards (I'm taking out Minshew's kneel-down at the end of the game). That's 8.47 yards/carry. While Philly does have the #1 rushing attack in the league and the Gmen have the 32nd-ranked run defense, I expect a much better effort from the Giants' defense. I'm guessing Daboll has shown them a few clips of their embarrassing effort 4 weeks ago.

Alright, so how do the Giants move the ball? Daniel Jones has, at least for one season, stopped turning the ball over 6 times/game (rough estimate). He's actually been at his best with this group of no-name WRs. But the key, as always, is the ground game. The Giants have the 7th best run game, as they have finally started to give Barkley a chance with some improved offensive line play. And, of course, Jones is a very effective runner. Philly has the #1 ranked pass defense, but they are 21st against the run. That is their vulnerability. As long as the Gmen can keep it close, they can keep running the ball. In that first matchup, Barkley only got 11 touches (9 carries and 2 receptions). He needs at least 25 tomorrow.

NYG (+7.5) 3 units
NYG (ML) 1 to win 2.9
Under (48) 4 units
1H under (23.5, +100) 2 units
Jones rushing yards over (42.5) 2 units
Sanders rushing yards under (68.5) 2 units. This is either bat-shit crazy or the key to the Gmen possibly winning the game. Sanders ran for 144 on 17 carries in the first matchup. This line appears to be begging for over money.
Jones passing yards under (216.5, -120) 1 unit

 

[Juji-gatame]

Couldn’t agree more. Taking both dogs a the points! Good luck in your money liners. I as well believe the Giants have a real good shot at winning

 

[Smitty]

Playoffs
Sides 4-1 +6.7
ML 1-3 -1.3
Totals 3-8 -13.8
Props 5-4 -0.3


Anyone know when the Giants' varsity game starts?

Ok, maybe I'm blinded by my anti-Bills bias. And there are certainly reasons not to love Cincinnati today. Primarily that they are now missing 3 starting offensive linemen. Brutal.

But, like the vast majority of my bets, I'm betting against a team. In this case, Buffalo. The Bills are 3-7-1 ATS since their bye week. 3-0 against Chicago and New England. And they needed 2 KO returns to cover the last game against NE. They struggled against a Miami team last week that was playing VERY poorly down the stretch. Oh, and their qb was Skylar Thompson. People are finally catching on to the fact that Josh Allen is a turnover machine. 16 INTs and 9 fumbles this year. Those are 2019 Daniel Jones numbers. UPDATE... holy shit, I had to go back and check DJ's #s from 2019. Remember that year, when it seemed like he turned it over 4 times a game? Well, I was in for a surprise. He threw 12 INTs and "only" had 6 fumbles. Josh Allen is turning the ball over at a higher rate than Daniel Jones in his brutal rookie season. Let that sink in for a minute.

Cincinnati's defense is very middle-of-the-pack. But that is significantly better than Miami's defense.

One thing to keep in mind... Cincinnati made it to the SB last year with a dog shit offensive line. Down 3 starters, maybe their line today is even worse, but they have proven they can win road playoff games with a bad offensive line.

Tampa showed last week you can create a game plan to account for not being able to protect the qb. It was almost all quick passes. Their 90-year old qb just couldn't connect with his receivers, which was the case all year. I think Joe Burrow is a little more in-sync with his guys. Hopefully their OC can manage to figure out he needs to significantly reduce the downfield passing game.

Weather - it is expected to pretty much snow all game, but almost no wind. So that shouldn't be a huge factor. Unless, of course, it comes down so hard they can't keep the field clear. In that case... who can run the ball? Certainly not the Bills (except with Allen, of course). Surprisingly, Cincinnati has the 4th-ranked rush offense (based on DVOA rankings). Sure, they won't be THAT efficient without 3 starters on the line. But they may be able to do enough to take a little pressure off Burrow.

I was planning on keeping this brief. Whoops. I typed so much, the line has dropped half a point from when I started.

Cincinnati (+5.5) 3 units
Cincinnati (ML) 2 to win 4
Under (48.5) 4 units
Cincinnati TT under (21.5) 2 units
Buffalo TT under (27.5) 4 units
Josh Allen rushing yards over (48.5) 2 units

 

[Smitty]

Per the DVOA ratings, this is the #1 defense (SF) vs the #2 defense (Dallas). And, maybe surprisingly, the #6 offense (SF) against the #15 offense (Dallas). Dallas' offense hasn't been all that great. In no small part because Prescott SUUUUUUUCKS.

It's hard betting on SF. As I've mentioned a few times, the bigger the stage, the more likely that Shanahan is going to really fuck up a lead. But I have to bet against Dallas here. Somehow beating a really bad team last week doesn't convince me that they're suddenly ready to beat a good team on the road in the playoffs. And, sure, SF played the second-weakest schedule in the league this year. But Dallas played the 6th-weakest. And SF dominated the NFC. They were 6-0 ATS at home against NFC opponents. So while maybe the schedule was weak, they took care of business.

Oh, remember last week, when a lot of people were jumping on the fact that Dallas had a poor record on grass fields? Well, guess what surface they are on again today?

Everyone seems to have forgotten just how bad Purdy was early in the game last week. Even the announcer (Aikman maybe?) commented on how off he was. After he settled down a little, he was able to hit a lot of wide open receivers the rest of the game. That was against a really bad defense, so we'll see if Purdy gets off to another ugly start. He may not be able to recover today.

Oh, one other thing... SF's defense has been DOMINANT in the 2nd half of games. Just something to keep an eye on for your halftime wagering.

SF (-3.5) 4 units
Under (46.5) 8 units
SF 1H TT under (12.5) 2 to win 2.1
SF 1Q TT under (6.5) 2 units
Dallas 2H TT under (10.5) 2 units

 

[Smitty]

I left out one important detail re: the total in the late game... they are expecting winds just over 20 mph all game, with gusts in the mid 30's.

 

[ejthree]

I left out one important detail re: the total in the late game... they are expecting winds just over 20 mph all game, with gusts in the mid 30's.

Hoping for a good ole fashion slugfest. I have no respect for Billionaire coaches :mj07::mj07:GL Smitty and nice work on the Bengals...

 

[Smitty]

Thanks, EJ. Yeah, gimme SF with a 17-3 lead going into the 4th quarter, and I'll be happy.

And, holy shit, Cincinnati was even easier than I expected. I know people think McDermott is one of the better head coaches out there, but it's been how many years now, and he still hasn't figured out they need a run game to win this time of year?

 

[Smitty]

Playoffs
Sides 6-1 +13.7
ML 2-3 +2.7
Totals 9-9 +6.1
Props 5-5 -2.5

now THAT'S how you finish a weekend. :0008

 

[boobietrap2]

What a day you had congrats! Thanks again.

 

[rocky mountain]

Playoffs
Sides 6-1 +13.7
ML 2-3 +2.7
Totals 9-9 +6.1
Props 5-5 -2.5

now THAT'S how you finish a weekend. :0008

Wheelbarrow Sunday for you!

 

[Smitty]

thanks, guys. every once in a while, a game goes exactly how you expect. except for ray ray fumbling the damn punt. if you can't trust a guy named ray ray, who CAN you trust?