grabbing this now...
Houston/KC under (42.5) 4.6 to win 4
Houston/KC under (42.5) 4.6 to win 4
Divisional Round
- Thread starter Smitty
- Start date
- Sep 7, 2006
- 4,721
- 483
- 83
thank you. feels like getting a good line never helps me. maybe this will be the first time.Early bird gets da worm...Good work and love 42.5
just don't see a lot of points in this game.
also can't think of any reason not to hammer detroit. probably no reason to wait on that one either. far more likely that it goes to -10 than it drops much.
he is expected to play.
i just added these parlays...
KC under (42.5) / Detroit over (54.5) (+210) 2X
KC under (42.5) / Detroit (-8.5) (+236) 2X
i'm staying off the side in the early game. gun to my head, i'd take houston to keep it close against a kc team that was lucky to escape with multiple victories this year. houston's defense has been solid, allowing 5.1 yards/play (4th in the league), although they did play 6 games against that weak division. offensively, kc only averaged 5.1 yards/play (23rd).
that said, it's hard to trust houston to score much. stroud has regressed this year, and he's running out of weapons. and the way he bawled after Dell's injury at KC... well, we all saw how the team responded after that. leadership!
one factor to note... the left side of KC's offensive line is in a state of flux. after their first 2 LT's didn't work out this year, they signed DJ Humphries in late November. he promptly injured his hamstring and didn't even finish his first game. he returned for the season finale. the assumption is that he plays most of this game at LT. however, he still have very few snaps with this team. KC also used LG Thuney at LT. he was ok, but that's not his natural position and, of course, that forces them to use their backup LG. Reid is saying they will both see time at LT today. IF houston can keep it close, their pass rush could play a role. they were 4th in the league in sacks. despite 23 fewer pass attempts at home, mahomes was sacked at home 10 more times than on the road.
here's what i have. the first 3 plays are what i posted earlier.
Houston/KC under (42.5) 4.6 to win 4
KC under (42.5) / Detroit over (54.5) (+210) 2X
KC under (42.5) / Detroit (-8.5) (+236) 2X
Anderson sacks over (.25) 2.3 to win 2
Hunter sacks over (.25) 2X
Karlaftis sacks over (.25) 2.8 to win 2
Stroud INT 3.2 to win 2
Mahomes INT 1 to win 1
Houston 1H TT under (7.5) 3 to win 2
Mixon carries under (15.5) 2.5 to win 2
KC D/ST TD (+500) 1X
that said, it's hard to trust houston to score much. stroud has regressed this year, and he's running out of weapons. and the way he bawled after Dell's injury at KC... well, we all saw how the team responded after that. leadership!
one factor to note... the left side of KC's offensive line is in a state of flux. after their first 2 LT's didn't work out this year, they signed DJ Humphries in late November. he promptly injured his hamstring and didn't even finish his first game. he returned for the season finale. the assumption is that he plays most of this game at LT. however, he still have very few snaps with this team. KC also used LG Thuney at LT. he was ok, but that's not his natural position and, of course, that forces them to use their backup LG. Reid is saying they will both see time at LT today. IF houston can keep it close, their pass rush could play a role. they were 4th in the league in sacks. despite 23 fewer pass attempts at home, mahomes was sacked at home 10 more times than on the road.
here's what i have. the first 3 plays are what i posted earlier.
Houston/KC under (42.5) 4.6 to win 4
KC under (42.5) / Detroit over (54.5) (+210) 2X
KC under (42.5) / Detroit (-8.5) (+236) 2X
Anderson sacks over (.25) 2.3 to win 2
Hunter sacks over (.25) 2X
Karlaftis sacks over (.25) 2.8 to win 2
Stroud INT 3.2 to win 2
Mahomes INT 1 to win 1
Houston 1H TT under (7.5) 3 to win 2
Mixon carries under (15.5) 2.5 to win 2
KC D/ST TD (+500) 1X
Great information much appreciated! You break it down the best regardless of outcome. Huge help, thanks again!
Played the 1st half live under, motivated by your under commentaries. Saw what you saw pregame. Hope it holds steady for you! Nice start with Will Sack and Texans under! Ty Smitty
In all seriousness I
Ha, I was thinking that he was showing off for you. Great day again again. I smashed that Lions game with a cornucopia of overs. Your over bets gave me heavy convictions! The man!! 👏
ha. just fired up the computer. no real strong opinions on either game today. i'll do some digging. leaning LAR & under early. the under feels WAY too easy, and the total hasn't budged all week. the line moving up to -7 scares me though.
I'm on same boat. I like Higby over yardage with Nacobe out, but not sure why he was spitting out blood Monday. Think from the hit he took. He was taken to the hospital. Yikes.
offensively, both teams have similar #s. philly averages 5.5 yards/play at home, and LAR averaged 5.5/play on the road.
defensively, philly led the league, giving up 4.8 yards/play. the rams give up 5.6/play BUT... they've been better on the road (5.2 vs 5.9 at home) and overall their defense has been MUCH better recently. their last 4 games their starters played, they gave up less than 10 points each game and 4.5 yards/play during that stretch.
i don't think the weather will be all that big of a factor. there will be SOME wind, but maybe not quite enough to make a difference. around 9 mph with gusts around 15 mph.
as usual in games like this, it comes down to who can run the ball. and, holy shit, barkely lit up the rams in the first matchup. was that a fluke, and motivation for the rams to be better today? hard to call 850* yards a fluke. but, again, LA has been better defensively since then.
*just an estimate.
with the exception of a 27-yard run, philly held williams to 3.0 yards/carry in the first matchup. obviously the rams need to do better today. the absence of nakobe dean may help. he's philly's 2nd-leading tackler.
really, nothing would surprise me in this game. i'm still not a believer in Hurts but, as usual, he has a big ground game to take pressure off him. he may not need to do much.
when in doubt, i almost always default to the dog.
1H under (21.5) 4X
Phil 1H TT under (13.5) 4.6 to win 4
LAR 1H (+4.5) 1X
LAR (+7) 2.1 to win 2
LAR (ML) 1 to win 3.1
Kyren Williams TD 2 to win 2.1
Verse sacks over (.25) 1 to win 1.5
Fiske sacks over (.25) 1 to win 1.7
Hurts passing yds under (194.5) 1.2 to win 1
that is already way more than i want on this game.
defensively, philly led the league, giving up 4.8 yards/play. the rams give up 5.6/play BUT... they've been better on the road (5.2 vs 5.9 at home) and overall their defense has been MUCH better recently. their last 4 games their starters played, they gave up less than 10 points each game and 4.5 yards/play during that stretch.
i don't think the weather will be all that big of a factor. there will be SOME wind, but maybe not quite enough to make a difference. around 9 mph with gusts around 15 mph.
as usual in games like this, it comes down to who can run the ball. and, holy shit, barkely lit up the rams in the first matchup. was that a fluke, and motivation for the rams to be better today? hard to call 850* yards a fluke. but, again, LA has been better defensively since then.
*just an estimate.
with the exception of a 27-yard run, philly held williams to 3.0 yards/carry in the first matchup. obviously the rams need to do better today. the absence of nakobe dean may help. he's philly's 2nd-leading tackler.
really, nothing would surprise me in this game. i'm still not a believer in Hurts but, as usual, he has a big ground game to take pressure off him. he may not need to do much.
when in doubt, i almost always default to the dog.
1H under (21.5) 4X
Phil 1H TT under (13.5) 4.6 to win 4
LAR 1H (+4.5) 1X
LAR (+7) 2.1 to win 2
LAR (ML) 1 to win 3.1
Kyren Williams TD 2 to win 2.1
Verse sacks over (.25) 1 to win 1.5
Fiske sacks over (.25) 1 to win 1.7
Hurts passing yds under (194.5) 1.2 to win 1
that is already way more than i want on this game.
- Sep 7, 2006
- 4,721
- 483
- 83
keep going back and forth on the late game. can't trust jackson at this point in the playoffs, but allen ain't much better. just watch how many open receivers are missed tonight, and how rarely a receiver is hit in stride.
i also really want to play the under, but... is baltimore's defensive resurgence a mirage? i'm leaning towards yes.
as always... who can run the ball? well, the ravens. duh. they led the league, averaging a ridiculous 5.8 yards/carry. buffalo is in the middle of the pack defensively, giving up 4.5/carry. of course, those numbers are skewed by one big game against... oh yeah, baltimore. we've all seen the rushing #s from that game. no need to rehash them here. i don't know that milano's return will make THAT much of a difference.
buffalo finally figured out they need a ground game, and they had a solid year, averaging 4.5 yards/carry. unfortunately for them, baltimore led the league, allowing 3.6/carry.
my hope is jackson doesn't throw more than 15 passes. that'll give baltimore their best chance to win.
Baltimore (-1.5) 2 to win 2
Jackson pass att under (27.5) 2X
Jackson rush yds over (55.5) 2.3 to win 2
Allen rush yds over (47.5) 2.4 to win 2
Allen TD 2 to win 2.2
i also really want to play the under, but... is baltimore's defensive resurgence a mirage? i'm leaning towards yes.
as always... who can run the ball? well, the ravens. duh. they led the league, averaging a ridiculous 5.8 yards/carry. buffalo is in the middle of the pack defensively, giving up 4.5/carry. of course, those numbers are skewed by one big game against... oh yeah, baltimore. we've all seen the rushing #s from that game. no need to rehash them here. i don't know that milano's return will make THAT much of a difference.
buffalo finally figured out they need a ground game, and they had a solid year, averaging 4.5 yards/carry. unfortunately for them, baltimore led the league, allowing 3.6/carry.
my hope is jackson doesn't throw more than 15 passes. that'll give baltimore their best chance to win.
Baltimore (-1.5) 2 to win 2
Jackson pass att under (27.5) 2X
Jackson rush yds over (55.5) 2.3 to win 2
Allen rush yds over (47.5) 2.4 to win 2
Allen TD 2 to win 2.2
