Divisional Weekend

[Smitty]

Gonna be out of town (near Gore Mountain) this weekend, and the internet is always spotty where we stay, so I'm gonna try to get as much possible posted as I can before we leave tomorrow afternoon.

Houston/Baltimore

The joy of handicapping a game 3-4 days in advance this time of year. As of now, they are expecting cold temps (mid-20's, but real feel in the single digits) Saturday afternoon. But, much more importantly... strong winds. 20 mph with gusts in the upper 30's.

That favors that team that can run the ball. But... which of these teams will be able to establish the run? Obviously you'd think it's Baltimore. They are 2nd in the league, averaging 4.9 yards/carry. But Gus Edwards only averages 4.1. They brought in Melvin Gordon, but in the last 2 games, he has 28 yards on 13 carries and a lost fumble. Justice Hill didn't even get a carry their last game, and hasn't done much outside of a few big runs here and there. Their run game is pretty much Jackson at this point. On the other side of the ball, Houston is 2nd in the league, allowing just 3.5 yards/carry.

Houston has faced very few running qbs this year. Really just Richardson from Indy back in week 2 (and he had 35 yards and 2 TDs on 3 carries before getting hurt) and Jackson back in week 1. Jackson ran for 38 yards on 6 carries in a game that really wasn't close after halftime. However... he had 2 fumbles (losing 1). That may be a theme on a frigid day. Only 4 teams lost more fumbles than Baltimore. Jackson has always been careless with the ball.

Ok, Jackson in the playoffs (Jack, you may want to avert your eyes). He is 1-3. But let's start with the positive... he may be better than Dak!! Ok, in all seriousness, he has one outstanding stat... in 4 playoff games, he's run 54 times for 367 yards (6.8/rush). But when he throws the ball... in those 4 starts, he's completed 56% of his passes and averaged 6.6 yards/att with 3 TDs and 5 INTs. And he had his security blanket (Mark Andrews) for all those games. Now, Andrews is practicing and they haven't ruled him out for this weekend. But coming off an ankle injury... combined with these temps... and even if he does play, nobody's going to be able to throw the ball in those winds.

Ok, Houston offensively... first of all, no, I'm not impressed with CJ Stroud yet. If anyone was paying attention, you know he missed 2 WIDE open receivers for easy TDs last week. And just about every big throw he did hit... again, WIDE open receivers. Now you have a rookie making his first road playoff start against one of the best pass defenses in the league. Of course, Cleveland was statistically very similar to Baltimore. No idea what happened last week. But outdoors... in that wind... there will be an even bigger premium on accuracy. Stroud was ok in his debut at Baltimore, completing 28 of 44 for 242 with 0 TDs and 0 INTs. They did sack him 5 times, and Baltimore went on to lead the league in sacks.

Houston's ground game is one of the worst in the league, averaging 3.7 yards/carry. At least Singletary played in a few cold games at Buffalo. Dameon Pierce has been a complete non-factor, averaging 2.9/carry. Baltimore's defense is vulnerable to the run, giving up 4.5 yards/rush (25th).

So on one side, we have a Houston offense that relies on the passing game against a defense that is excellent against the pass, but struggles against the run.

On the other side, we have Lamar Jackson.

I don't see how either team is going to consistently move the ball. The only reliable weapon, especially considering the weather, is Jackson's legs. And he's likely to drop the ball at least once.

Houston (+9.5) 4 units
Houston (ML) 2 to win 6.8
Houston 1H (+6.5) 4 units
Under (43.5) 10 units (Right after typing this, I accidently closed the tab while trying to click on a different tab. Talk about absolute panic. I thought I lost all this. Luckily this site saved a draft!!! Of course, now I gotta hope that wasn't a sign from the gambling gods.)
Baltimore TT under (27.5) 10 to win 8 Baltimore hasn't scored more than 20 in Jackson's playoff starts.
1Q under (8.5) 6 units
Jackson over (53.5) rushing yards 9.2 to win 8
Jackson under (228.5) passing yards 4.6 to win 4
Stroud under (242.5) passing yards 4.6 to win 4
Houston D/ST to score a TD 2 to win 14

 

[Smitty]

GB/SF

Quick note... if Baltimore wins by at least 3, HAMMER Green Bay at +2 (currently at +276) because you KNOW every Balt/SF teaser is going down.

Christian McCaffery is -300 to score a TD. Let that sink in. And it's probably a reasonable number.

GB played a road game Sunday and now they're playing a road game Saturday. Not easy. I went through the last 5 years of playoffs to see how teams did in this situation. Small sample size, obviously, but teams on the road Sunday and then the following Saturday are 1-3 SU & ATS.

GB has not lost a road game by more than 4 points all year.

SF has dropped 5 straight home games ATS.

High likelihood of rain Saturday evening, but moderate winds.

SF's defense is not quite as stout as they've been in recent years. While they are 5th in the league against the pass, giving up 6.4 yards/att, they are only 14th against the run, giving up 4.1 yards/rush. Aaron Jones has now gone over 110 yards 4 straight games. Obviously GB's plan should be, once again, to establish the run to take some pressure off Love. But if SF jumps out to a lead and GB is forced to throw, Love is mobile enough and, right now, good enough, that it's not a death knell for the Pack.

Other side of the ball, what can you say about SF's offense, other than it's too bad there's only one football in the game. So many weapons, it's gotta be a constant challenge to keep everyone happy. SF led the league in passing, at 9.3 yards/att. That's a full yard ahead of Miami, the 2nd place team. And they're 4th in the league on the ground, averaging 4.8 yards/rush. Really the only question... and the weakest link... is Purdy. Obviously he's been very solid overall. But he's thrown in a couple of real clunkers.

Alright, I really don't want to do too much with this game. I wouldn't be surprised if GB shocks the world again and keeps it close (or even pulls off the upset). But their 2nd straight road game, and on short rest... after that huge emotional win... they may wear down in the 2nd half.

GB (+7.5) 2 to win 2.1 (I'm selling a couple points)
GB (ML) 1 to win 3.5
GB 1H (+6.5) 3 units
Over (50.5) 2 units
Kittle over (52.5) rec yds 2.3 to win 2
SF D/ST TD 1 to win 5.5 (when one book has +300 and another has +550, I have to bet it just on principle.)

 

[ejthree]

Great insight and always excellent write-ups..GL Smitty...

 

[Smitty]

TB/Detroit

Just saw a clip from Todd Bowles' press conference where a (female) reporter asked him if he was making any special preparations for the team to deal with the cold weather in Detroit. He said no, he thought they could handle the 15-second walk from the bus into the stadium.

Ok, now that that is settled....

I find myself in the opposite position as last week. I wanted to bet against Philly, but TB wasn't all that good at home. Now I want to bet Detroit, but TB is a little better on the road.

TB had the worst rushing attack in the league this year, averaging 3.4 yards/carry. And Detroit's run defense is very solid, allowing 3.7 yards/carry (3rd). Luckily for Baker Mayfield, Detroit's pass defense is the 2nd-worst in the league, giving up 7.8 yards/attempt.

Other side of the ball, TB's pass defense isn't much better, allowing 7.5 yards/att (25th). Their run defense is solid, allowing 3.8 yards/rush (8th). That run defense will be tested against Montgomery & Gibbs.

Few quick notes from their matchup in TB back in October... Detroit never trailed in the 20-6 win and they had a 13-minute edge in TOP. That said, Detroit had almost zero success on the ground, running for 40 yards on 22 carries. Although, full disclosure... Montgomery got hurt after only 14 yards on 6 carries and Gibbs missed the game entirely. So hopefully they can improve on those numbers. Goff was solid, completing 30 of 44 for 353 and 2 TDs with 0 INTs. Mayfield was 19 of 37 for 206 with 0 TDs and 1 INT.

TB also had no run game that day - 46 yards on 16 carries. Mike Evans had 10 targets... but only 4 reception for 49 yards. Godwin had 6 catches on 7 targets for 77 yards. Other side of the ball, St. Brown had a big day with 124 yards on 12 catches (15 targets). And thought this was a little surprising.. LaPorta had 11 targets, but only 4 catches for 36 yards. So he was a big part of the game plan. Just didn't get the receptions.

Alright, so we have 2 poor pass defenses, and one team that can run the ball, but faces a solid run defense. I gotta go with the more balanced offense. And, while I still really don't trust Goff if this game is close late, I trust him more than Baker Mayfield. Even though Mayfield was a lot better on the road than at home this year. Just saw these splits...

Home: 63.3%, 7.6 yards/att, 10 TD, 7 INT, sacked on 5% of dropbacks
Road: 65.2%, 6.7 yards/att, 18 TD, 3 INT, sacked on 8% of dropbacks

So he's sacked more on the road, and averages nearly a full yard less per attempt. But those TD/INT #s are impressive.

As you might expect, Goff is better at home:

Home: 70.1%, 8.1 yards/att, 19 TD, 6 INT, sacked on 4.1% of dropbacks
Road: 64.8%, 7.1 yards/att, 11 TD, 6 INT, sacked on 5.2% of dropbacks

We have 2 QBs who are set up to have big games. I gotta give the edge to Goff, at home, with the better run game.

Detroit (-6.5) 4 units
Over (48.5) 6 units
Rashard White under (55.5) rushing yards 4 units
Hutchinson over (.75) sacks 7 to win 4. Hate laying (-175), but I forgot to mention... Hutchinson has 7 sacks his last 3 games. Gotta expect TB will be throwing a lot, so he's going to have plenty of opportunities.
McLaughlin over (6.5) points 4.8 to win 4. Channeling my inner-Nolan Dalla here. Their last 3 games, Detroit has held opponents to TDs on 16.7% of their red zone drives. Might make even more sense to just bet him over 1.5 FGs at -110.
LaPorta TD 2 to win 2.5

Not sure that I'll get a chance to post KC/Buffalo before we hit the road. And, like I said, the internet can be very sporadic up there. Usually it's ok during the day, when everyone is out skiing and not sucking up the wifi. But just in case... I'll probably be on KC and the under.

 

[Smitty]

Great insight and always excellent write-ups..GL Smitty...

although it's really only any good if it leads to a profit.

 

[rocky mountain]

TB/Detroit

Just saw a clip from Todd Bowles' press conference where a (female) reporter asked him if he was making any special preparations for the team to deal with the cold weather in Detroit. He said no, he thought they could handle the 15-second walk from the bus into the stadium.

Ok, now that that is settled....

I find myself in the opposite position as last week. I wanted to bet against Philly, but TB wasn't all that good at home. Now I want to bet Detroit, but TB is a little better on the road.

TB had the worst rushing attack in the league this year, averaging 3.4 yards/carry. And Detroit's run defense is very solid, allowing 3.7 yards/carry (3rd). Luckily for Baker Mayfield, Detroit's pass defense is the 2nd-worst in the league, giving up 7.8 yards/attempt.

Other side of the ball, TB's pass defense isn't much better, allowing 7.5 yards/att (25th). Their run defense is solid, allowing 3.8 yards/rush (8th). That run defense will be tested against Montgomery & Gibbs.

Few quick notes from their matchup in TB back in October... Detroit never trailed in the 20-6 win and they had a 13-minute edge in TOP. That said, Detroit had almost zero success on the ground, running for 40 yards on 22 carries. Although, full disclosure... Montgomery got hurt after only 14 yards on 6 carries and Gibbs missed the game entirely. So hopefully they can improve on those numbers. Goff was solid, completing 30 of 44 for 353 and 2 TDs with 0 INTs. Mayfield was 19 of 37 for 206 with 0 TDs and 1 INT.

TB also had no run game that day - 46 yards on 16 carries. Mike Evans had 10 targets... but only 4 reception for 49 yards. Godwin had 6 catches on 7 targets for 77 yards. Other side of the ball, St. Brown had a big day with 124 yards on 12 catches (15 targets). And thought this was a little surprising.. LaPorta had 11 targets, but only 4 catches for 36 yards. So he was a big part of the game plan. Just didn't get the receptions.

Alright, so we have 2 poor pass defenses, and one team that can run the ball, but faces a solid run defense. I gotta go with the more balanced offense. And, while I still really don't trust Goff if this game is close late, I trust him more than Baker Mayfield. Even though Mayfield was a lot better on the road than at home this year. Just saw these splits...

Home: 63.3%, 7.6 yards/att, 10 TD, 7 INT, sacked on 5% of dropbacks
Road: 65.2%, 6.7 yards/att, 18 TD, 3 INT, sacked on 8% of dropbacks

So he's sacked more on the road, and averages nearly a full yard less per attempt. But those TD/INT #s are impressive.

As you might expect, Goff is better at home:

Home: 70.1%, 8.1 yards/att, 19 TD, 6 INT, sacked on 4.1% of dropbacks
Road: 64.8%, 7.1 yards/att, 11 TD, 6 INT, sacked on 5.2% of dropbacks

We have 2 QBs who are set up to have big games. I gotta give the edge to Goff, at home, with the better run game.

Detroit (-6.5) 4 units
Over (48.5) 6 units
Rashard White under (55.5) rushing yards 4 units
Hutchinson over (.75) sacks 7 to win 4. Hate laying (-175), but I forgot to mention... Hutchinson has 7 sacks his last 3 games. Gotta expect TB will be throwing a lot, so he's going to have plenty of opportunities.
McLaughlin over (6.5) points 4.8 to win 4. Channeling my inner-Nolan Dalla here. Their last 3 games, Detroit has held opponents to TDs on 16.7% of their red zone drives. Might make even more sense to just bet him over 1.5 FGs at -110.
LaPorta TD 2 to win 2.5

Not sure that I'll get a chance to post KC/Buffalo before we hit the road. And, like I said, the internet can be very sporadic up there. Usually it's ok during the day, when everyone is out skiing and not sucking up the wifi. But just in case... I'll probably be on KC and the under.

Enjoy your trip, are you skiing?

 

[Smitty]

Enjoy your trip, are you skiing?

thank you. nah, between my knees and my back, i think my skiing days are behind me. usually the GF and i bring our snowshoes, but it's going to be so damn cold up there this weekend, that we may not.

i can't wait to see how many of the crew actually do go skiing this weekend. some of them have been up there since last weekend, so they may not push it, as cold as it's going to be. but some of them will definitely go. anyway, we kinda enjoy the quiet days when everyone is out. the house is quiet and we just catch up on reading or jump in the pool (did i mention this place has an indoor pool?), or shoot some pool or play ping pong. this house sleeps 20 and is absolutely ridiculous.

oh, 2nd book on my list for the weekend... the Billy Walters autobiography. should be an interesting read.

alright, i gotta get back to work getting ready to go. trying to get out of here in 3 hours, but there's no way that's gonna happen.

 

[ChasDee]

Just saw a clip from Todd Bowles' press conference where a (female) reporter asked him if he was making any special preparations for the team to deal with the cold weather in Detroit. He said no, he thought they could handle the 15-second walk from the bus into the stadium.

 

[HappyJack]

Ravens sign RB Dalvin Cook ahead of divisional game vs. Texans, release Melvin Gordon​

 

[Smitty]

Ravens sign RB Dalvin Cook ahead of divisional game vs. Texans, release Melvin Gordon​

thank you, i saw that yesterday. i think it said he's been on the practice squad a couple weeks, so he should have enough grasp of the playbook to see the field. that said, i'm no exactly worried about the corpse of dalvin cook. if he breaks off a big run, so be it.

 

[Smitty]

Couple updates from Baltimore.... they are not expecting to activate Mark Andrews. And they are still expecting strong winds.

KC/Buffalo

Looks like temps in the mid 20's with a real feel in the low teens and a decent wind (10 mph, gusts 15-17 mph). Sooooo... Buffalo in January.

Another game where I'd like to bet against both teams. So I shouldn't bet a side. But where's the fun in that?

Both teams average 4.3 yards/rush but, of course, both get most of their yards through the air (KC 71%, Buffalo 66%). Buffalo is a little more efficient, gaining 7.4 yards/att (9th in the league) vs 6.9 (20th) for KC. Defensively, KC is better against the pass, allowing 6.0 yards/att (3rd) vs 6.7/att for Buffalo (8th). Both teams are in the top 4 for sacks, so expect to see pressure on both QBs. Josh Allen led the league with 18 INTs (ok, I'm almost positive he led the league, but I'm too lazy to verify), but KC only picked off 8 passes all year. Speaking of TOs... here's what scares me the most about KC in this game... They had a -11 TO ratio this year, which was the 5th worst in the league. The only other teams in the playoffs this year with a negative TO differential were Philadelphia, LA Rams, and Cleveland. You may have noticed the other 3 are already done.

Oh, back to the run game... neither team was good at stopping the run. KC gave up 4.5 yards/carry and Buffalo gave up 4.6. Both are in the bottom 9 of the league. So while it feels unlikely either of these teams will change things up and really try to establish the run, it's there for the taking. While Andy Reid has really gotten away from the run this year, in years past they always had a sneaky good run game. I'd love to see Pacheco get 25 carries. He missed the first matchup with Buffalo.

Speaking of that first matchup... a couple interesting notes...

For KC, Kelce and Rice had 10 targets each. Nobody else had more than 4.

For Buffalo, Diggs had 11 targets but only 4 catches for 24 yards.

James Cook had a big game. Only 10 carries (for 58 yards!), but also 5 catches for 83 yards.

KC (ML) 3 to win 3.6
Under (45.5) 8 units (I shoulda grabbed this at 46.5)
John Allen TD 9.2 to win 8
Kincaid TD 2 to win 5.1
Knox TD 4 to win 20 (yup, going back to the well with both TEs. Especially Knox, Allen's old security blanket.)
Shakir over (32.5) rec yards 2.3 to win 2
Rice over (67.5) rec yards 4.6 to win 4
Diggs under (61.5) rec yards 4 units
Cook over (84.5) rushing + rec yards 6 to win 5

 

[T]

Thanks Smitty! Great info. That TB on the road TD/INT stat is scary good.

 

[rocky mountain]

TB/Detroit

Just saw a clip from Todd Bowles' press conference where a (female) reporter asked him if he was making any special preparations for the team to deal with the cold weather in Detroit. He said no, he thought they could handle the 15-second walk from the bus into the stadium.

Ok, now that that is settled....

I find myself in the opposite position as last week. I wanted to bet against Philly, but TB wasn't all that good at home. Now I want to bet Detroit, but TB is a little better on the road.

TB had the worst rushing attack in the league this year, averaging 3.4 yards/carry. And Detroit's run defense is very solid, allowing 3.7 yards/carry (3rd). Luckily for Baker Mayfield, Detroit's pass defense is the 2nd-worst in the league, giving up 7.8 yards/attempt.

Other side of the ball, TB's pass defense isn't much better, allowing 7.5 yards/att (25th). Their run defense is solid, allowing 3.8 yards/rush (8th). That run defense will be tested against Montgomery & Gibbs.

Few quick notes from their matchup in TB back in October... Detroit never trailed in the 20-6 win and they had a 13-minute edge in TOP. That said, Detroit had almost zero success on the ground, running for 40 yards on 22 carries. Although, full disclosure... Montgomery got hurt after only 14 yards on 6 carries and Gibbs missed the game entirely. So hopefully they can improve on those numbers. Goff was solid, completing 30 of 44 for 353 and 2 TDs with 0 INTs. Mayfield was 19 of 37 for 206 with 0 TDs and 1 INT.

TB also had no run game that day - 46 yards on 16 carries. Mike Evans had 10 targets... but only 4 reception for 49 yards. Godwin had 6 catches on 7 targets for 77 yards. Other side of the ball, St. Brown had a big day with 124 yards on 12 catches (15 targets). And thought this was a little surprising.. LaPorta had 11 targets, but only 4 catches for 36 yards. So he was a big part of the game plan. Just didn't get the receptions.

Alright, so we have 2 poor pass defenses, and one team that can run the ball, but faces a solid run defense. I gotta go with the more balanced offense. And, while I still really don't trust Goff if this game is close late, I trust him more than Baker Mayfield. Even though Mayfield was a lot better on the road than at home this year. Just saw these splits...

Home: 63.3%, 7.6 yards/att, 10 TD, 7 INT, sacked on 5% of dropbacks
Road: 65.2%, 6.7 yards/att, 18 TD, 3 INT, sacked on 8% of dropbacks

So he's sacked more on the road, and averages nearly a full yard less per attempt. But those TD/INT #s are impressive.

As you might expect, Goff is better at home:

Home: 70.1%, 8.1 yards/att, 19 TD, 6 INT, sacked on 4.1% of dropbacks
Road: 64.8%, 7.1 yards/att, 11 TD, 6 INT, sacked on 5.2% of dropbacks

We have 2 QBs who are set up to have big games. I gotta give the edge to Goff, at home, with the better run game.

Detroit (-6.5) 4 units
Over (48.5) 6 units
Rashard White under (55.5) rushing yards 4 units
Hutchinson over (.75) sacks 7 to win 4. Hate laying (-175), but I forgot to mention... Hutchinson has 7 sacks his last 3 games. Gotta expect TB will be throwing a lot, so he's going to have plenty of opportunities.
McLaughlin over (6.5) points 4.8 to win 4. Channeling my inner-Nolan Dalla here. Their last 3 games, Detroit has held opponents to TDs on 16.7% of their red zone drives. Might make even more sense to just bet him over 1.5 FGs at -110.
LaPorta TD 2 to win 2.5

Not sure that I'll get a chance to post KC/Buffalo before we hit the road. And, like I said, the internet can be very sporadic up there. Usually it's ok during the day, when everyone is out skiing and not sucking up the wifi. But just in case... I'll probably be on KC and the under.

I agree that over 1.5 fg is better chance then over 6.5 . Need 4 tds and a fg in that example. Albeit it pays +120

 

[Smitty]

I agree that over 1.5 fg is better chance then over 6.5 . Need 4 tds and a fg in that example. Albeit it pays +120

McLaughlin over 6.5 is now -125 and over 1.5 FGs is -125.

Badgley is -135 to go over 7.5 and -135 over 1.5 FGs. If nothing else, I think this bodes well for my Over bet. I'm thinking about betting Badgley, but not quite sure I trust him.

 

[Smitty]

KC TT under 25.5 6.5 to win 6. We'll see if KC has fixed their 2nd half offensive issues.

 

[Smitty]

just kidding

 

[rocky mountain]

just kidding

Besides the last one your doing very well with your props. Think your the best at the props from what I've seen.

 

[Smitty]

Besides the last one your doing very well with your props. Think your the best at the props from what I've seen.

it's been a ridiculous 2 weeks with the props. i have no idea why josh allen was roughly -110 to score a td both games. you'd think he'd be closer to -200.

 

[rocky mountain]

it's been a ridiculous 2 weeks with the props. i have no idea why josh allen was roughly -110 to score a td both games. you'd think he'd be closer to -200.

I just looked back at regular season and he had 15 td in 17 games. You're right that's crazy they would have that at -110 especially when he is unleashed at home. Well done!

 

[ejthree]

Couple updates from Baltimore.... they are not expecting to activate Mark Andrews. And they are still expecting strong winds.

KC/Buffalo

Looks like temps in the mid 20's with a real feel in the low teens and a decent wind (10 mph, gusts 15-17 mph). Sooooo... Buffalo in January.

Another game where I'd like to bet against both teams. So I shouldn't bet a side. But where's the fun in that?

Both teams average 4.3 yards/rush but, of course, both get most of their yards through the air (KC 71%, Buffalo 66%). Buffalo is a little more efficient, gaining 7.4 yards/att (9th in the league) vs 6.9 (20th) for KC. Defensively, KC is better against the pass, allowing 6.0 yards/att (3rd) vs 6.7/att for Buffalo (8th). Both teams are in the top 4 for sacks, so expect to see pressure on both QBs. Josh Allen led the league with 18 INTs (ok, I'm almost positive he led the league, but I'm too lazy to verify), but KC only picked off 8 passes all year. Speaking of TOs... here's what scares me the most about KC in this game... They had a -11 TO ratio this year, which was the 5th worst in the league. The only other teams in the playoffs this year with a negative TO differential were Philadelphia, LA Rams, and Cleveland. You may have noticed the other 3 are already done.

Oh, back to the run game... neither team was good at stopping the run. KC gave up 4.5 yards/carry and Buffalo gave up 4.6. Both are in the bottom 9 of the league. So while it feels unlikely either of these teams will change things up and really try to establish the run, it's there for the taking. While Andy Reid has really gotten away from the run this year, in years past they always had a sneaky good run game. I'd love to see Pacheco get 25 carries. He missed the first matchup with Buffalo.

Speaking of that first matchup... a couple interesting notes...

For KC, Kelce and Rice had 10 targets each. Nobody else had more than 4.

For Buffalo, Diggs had 11 targets but only 4 catches for 24 yards.

James Cook had a big game. Only 10 carries (for 58 yards!), but also 5 catches for 83 yards.

KC (ML) 3 to win 3.6
Under (45.5) 8 units (I shoulda grabbed this at 46.5)
John Allen TD 9.2 to win 8
Kincaid TD 2 to win 5.1
Knox TD 4 to win 20 (yup, going back to the well with both TEs. Especially Knox, Allen's old security blanket.)
Shakir over (32.5) rec yards 2.3 to win 2
Rice over (67.5) rec yards 4.6 to win 4
Diggs under (61.5) rec yards 4 units
Cook over (84.5) rushing + rec yards 6 to win 5

Well done Smitty as always…