ESPN keeps reporting how Mexico is unbeatable at home... does USA have any shot? Is a draw possible?
Does USA Have a shot vs. Mexico?
- Thread starter Destructor D
- Start date
A win seems extremely unlikely. A draw would be a very positive result.
Cons for USA
- Still playing with a makeshift back line. Last game out was Goodson and Gonzalez in the middle, and Cameron and Beasley on the outside. I'd expect the same lineup. Beasley is older and was a surprise start against CR, but he does play in the Mexican league. This was Cam's first game for USA not playing CB, and it is probably for the better as he seldom plays CB for Stoke City. Gonzalez is a talent IMO but this will be only his third start in this qualifying campaign. He looked lost against Honduras but played well against CR (but that game carries such an asterisk due to the weather). Very little familiarity within the back line as well as with the keeper, although based on current form Guzan is, at worst, a lateral substitute for Howard.
- Mexico has more talent across the board. Dos Santos struggles at the club level but I saw him decimate the USA in the Gold Cup final and it was domination. Plus Hernandez is the best player on the pitch.
- Mexico has stumbled out of the gate with only two points from the first two games. Not getting three here would put the team in crisis mode (although I suspect even in the event of a USA shocker, Mexico will still qualify for the WC). This team will be focused and will not be overlooking the Americans.
- Significant home-field advantage, last fall's USA friendly win notwithstanding.
- Say what you want about Landon Donovan's antics the past year, but he is, in my opinion, by far the team's most valuable player because he can both score AND create. The latter is particularly valuable when you consider how little Altidore has produced for the national team; he needs service and USA simply doesn't have anyone to get it to him. This team badly needs Donovan back.
- Jermaine Jones is out with an injury. USA supporters seem to be pretty split on this guy. Detractors say he is reckless and makes stupid decisions and gets booked frequently. All of this is true, but that is part of his role as a defensive midfielder and he has never been sent off for the national team. Personally, I think he is a very valuable player. He is the only player on this squad that has played significant Champions League minutes recently (Edu has in the past when he was with Rangers) and I think USA will miss him on Tuesday.
Pros for USA
- Francisco Rodriguez is out on a one-game ban and he is a significant player in the Mexican defense.
- Both Dos Santos and Hernandez were taken off against Honduras, although my understanding is that these were cramp-related issues and both should be ready on Tuesday.
- The friendly win last year, while just a friendly, was a bit of a "monkey off their back" victory. It at least removed the mental block that it is impossible to win at Azteca. Also, Jamaica managed a draw there in the Hex opener, which has further tainted the aura of invincibility of Mexico at home.
All in all, I still expect Mexico to win but could see the USA pulling out a draw, and will be rooting for that.
Cons for USA
- Still playing with a makeshift back line. Last game out was Goodson and Gonzalez in the middle, and Cameron and Beasley on the outside. I'd expect the same lineup. Beasley is older and was a surprise start against CR, but he does play in the Mexican league. This was Cam's first game for USA not playing CB, and it is probably for the better as he seldom plays CB for Stoke City. Gonzalez is a talent IMO but this will be only his third start in this qualifying campaign. He looked lost against Honduras but played well against CR (but that game carries such an asterisk due to the weather). Very little familiarity within the back line as well as with the keeper, although based on current form Guzan is, at worst, a lateral substitute for Howard.
- Mexico has more talent across the board. Dos Santos struggles at the club level but I saw him decimate the USA in the Gold Cup final and it was domination. Plus Hernandez is the best player on the pitch.
- Mexico has stumbled out of the gate with only two points from the first two games. Not getting three here would put the team in crisis mode (although I suspect even in the event of a USA shocker, Mexico will still qualify for the WC). This team will be focused and will not be overlooking the Americans.
- Significant home-field advantage, last fall's USA friendly win notwithstanding.
- Say what you want about Landon Donovan's antics the past year, but he is, in my opinion, by far the team's most valuable player because he can both score AND create. The latter is particularly valuable when you consider how little Altidore has produced for the national team; he needs service and USA simply doesn't have anyone to get it to him. This team badly needs Donovan back.
- Jermaine Jones is out with an injury. USA supporters seem to be pretty split on this guy. Detractors say he is reckless and makes stupid decisions and gets booked frequently. All of this is true, but that is part of his role as a defensive midfielder and he has never been sent off for the national team. Personally, I think he is a very valuable player. He is the only player on this squad that has played significant Champions League minutes recently (Edu has in the past when he was with Rangers) and I think USA will miss him on Tuesday.
Pros for USA
- Francisco Rodriguez is out on a one-game ban and he is a significant player in the Mexican defense.
- Both Dos Santos and Hernandez were taken off against Honduras, although my understanding is that these were cramp-related issues and both should be ready on Tuesday.
- The friendly win last year, while just a friendly, was a bit of a "monkey off their back" victory. It at least removed the mental block that it is impossible to win at Azteca. Also, Jamaica managed a draw there in the Hex opener, which has further tainted the aura of invincibility of Mexico at home.
All in all, I still expect Mexico to win but could see the USA pulling out a draw, and will be rooting for that.
I just put in a max play on Mexico. This is a huge game for them. With 2 draws its a must win, not to mention its a huge rivalry game. Don't think that draw in the friendly is not on their minds. US will play for the draw, but Mexico's speed will be too much for the weak US defense. I see a 2 goal Mexican victory.
I'm betting on the draw myself. My thoughts on the draw are
Value-wise, I think its got the most value at +275 -(26.6%).
Also, three weather related factors that has made Azteca a bitch in the past are not going to be as big a deal - heat - its going to be a cool night, air quality - which in the past has been horrific and maybe even more difficult to overcome than the altitude has improved alot in recent years and its expected to be good for the match, and altitude - US has been in Colorado/Mexico for a week now, so that shouldnt be as big a deal + the US has never had so many players playing in Mexico before for clubs. Beasley for example plays at 7000+ feet for Peublo.
Add to it that Mexico's stumbled out of the gate and the pressure is on them to win, not the US. If Mexico doesnt score earlier, the pressure on them in that stadium will increase.
Value-wise, I think its got the most value at +275 -(26.6%).
Also, three weather related factors that has made Azteca a bitch in the past are not going to be as big a deal - heat - its going to be a cool night, air quality - which in the past has been horrific and maybe even more difficult to overcome than the altitude has improved alot in recent years and its expected to be good for the match, and altitude - US has been in Colorado/Mexico for a week now, so that shouldnt be as big a deal + the US has never had so many players playing in Mexico before for clubs. Beasley for example plays at 7000+ feet for Peublo.
Add to it that Mexico's stumbled out of the gate and the pressure is on them to win, not the US. If Mexico doesnt score earlier, the pressure on them in that stadium will increase.
I see a mexico win they need a win and they will play for nothing less then a win.
A draw would be great for the US.
A draw would be great for the US.
usa can win
but they win in strange ways
fluke random goals, lucky rebounds, abysmal momentary mental fail on mexico's part
i put a few bucks on usa +500 for fun
come on dempsey get a hand of clog goal against the azteca gods :0074
but they win in strange ways
fluke random goals, lucky rebounds, abysmal momentary mental fail on mexico's part
i put a few bucks on usa +500 for fun
come on dempsey get a hand of clog goal against the azteca gods :0074
If USA pulls a win outta their ass, there is gonna be a riot and I hope the players get their asses off the field quicker than a hooker gets undressed!!
Mexico needs a win to be in the top 3 to advance and it will be an all out battle on the turf!!
Had USA +1 (-120) for 2.5* and Draw +300 for 2* - I'll take the +8.5*!!! USA!!!
USA did get very lucky with regards to the refs. Mexico probably should have enjoyed 2 penalty kicks, but would rather be lucky than good. Mexico also dominated the game overall, but give Besler (local kid from a HS near me) and the other defenders for USA credit for playing well.
USA did get very lucky with regards to the refs. Mexico probably should have enjoyed 2 penalty kicks, but would rather be lucky than good. Mexico also dominated the game overall, but give Besler (local kid from a HS near me) and the other defenders for USA credit for playing well.
