dogs/favs

[Omie]

I've been a member here for a while now, and don't usually post often, but do look often. I have been playing dogs for the majority of my life. For the first half-season in a while I am off to a terrible start. Not complaining, but curious if any other dog bettors are off to poor starts this season? ... either that or I should look at my formula a little better.:shrug:

appreciate the help - love the forum :0corn

 

[WildBillPicks7]

I've been a member here for a while now, and don't usually post often, but do look often. I have been playing dogs for the majority of my life. For the first half-season in a while I am off to a terrible start. Not complaining, but curious if any other dog bettors are off to poor starts this season? ... either that or I should look at my formula a little better.:shrug:

appreciate the help - love the forum :0corn

Omie, I typically love playing the UD, this year they are hitting over 59% overall, 60% home dogs and 57% road dogs, the thing is, you have to play them consistently each day and some weeks with 7 days in a row of games, a week will go by where favs cover at a 65 or better % clip.

This year however, has been tricky, line movements have been crazy from opening numbers the night before to just before game time, often huge public teams getting the heavy bets, ie, Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Reds, Braves, Dodgers, Giants, those teams have the highest number of wages on them in a given day, along with the Tigers. Teams of huge value this year have been the Pirates and at home, the Braves.

On the road, the Red Sox & Pirates have been pretty strong with the Cardinals doing the best in Run Line covers overall - my numbers could be off a smidgen however.

After the ALL-Star break, the books make huge adjustments, knowing the sharps bang lines early and go for the middle sometime during mid-day to lineup announcements to middle- they may play a dog that is +180, say it's the Astros and they are playing the Rays, the line drops to the Rays -160, then they pounce on the Rays at -160, you lay 1 unit each direction and at worse you come up even on the two bets, if Astros cover you win 20 cents on the two 1 unit bets.

Be consistent on what you play each day and it should help you the 2nd half of the season. Track the teams that have been the best of dogs this year and stick with them, you will prevail!

GL!

:0074

 

[Omie]

thanks for the feedback WBP7. It seems like there have been a ton of games lost in the 9th...more so than in previous years. I have noticed a ton of 1 run games too... maybe more value with +1.5... but dang that is a lot of juice... its the whole reason I play dogs in the first place.. Will hopefully tighten things up in the 2nd half. good luck through October!

 

[ageecee]

I've been a member here for a while now, and don't usually post often, but do look often. I have been playing dogs for the majority of my life. For the first half-season in a while I am off to a terrible start. Not complaining, but curious if any other dog bettors are off to poor starts this season? ... either that or I should look at my formula a little better.:shrug:

appreciate the help - love the forum :0corn

couldn't agree more more favs have hit in the last month its freakin ridiculous

 

[WildBillPicks7]

thanks for the feedback WBP7. It seems like there have been a ton of games lost in the 9th...more so than in previous years. I have noticed a ton of 1 run games too... maybe more value with +1.5... but dang that is a lot of juice... its the whole reason I play dogs in the first place.. Will hopefully tighten things up in the 2nd half. good luck through October!

Yes, tons of bullpen blown saves, Omie, I concur.

If you hedge against these teams, you should do well as they will probably unload some players in trades and they may have given up on the season the way they have played:

Brewers, 39-55 +1 1/2 runs or - 1 1/2 runs this year

Nationals 40-55 in 1 run games, +1 1/2 or -1 1/2

KC 42-50 in 1 run games, +1 1/2 or -1 1/2

Giants one of the worse at 36-58 in run line games, -2100

White Sox and KC are also horrible 1 run line games, fav & dogs.

Road fades: Padres, Astros

Home favs: Detroit, Cincy, Pirates, Red Sox, Tampa 2nd half.

Fade pitchers: Blanton, Hamels, Haren, David Price, Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes, Volquez, Santiago, Harrell, Nicasio

Money pitchers: Corbin 17-2, Zimmerman, Jeanmar Gomez, Colon, Jiminez (better on the road), Bucholz, Matt Moore, DelaRosa (Rockies)

July successful pitchers last 3 years: Buerhle, Correia, Hudson, Kennedy, Kershaw, Porcello, CC Sabathia, J Weaver

Horrible July pitchers last 3 years: Fister, Guthrie, Bud Norris

Over pitchers: Hanson, Maholm, Harang, Cain, Ryu, David Price, Lyles, Nicasio, Gallardo, Lester, Hammel

Under pitchers: Ogando, Archer, Lackey, J Weaver, Kuroda, Sale, Hughes, Travis Wood, Santana, Bumgarner, Lohse, Stults

Umpire info:

Over umps:

Angel Hernandez 16-5
Hickox 13-5
Timmons 12-6
Guccione 12-6
Gonzalez 13-7
Blaser 14-8

Under umps:

Kerwin Danley 4-11
Shrieber 4-10
Scott 6-13
Miller 6-12
Barrett 7-12

Home Team cover Umps:

Rackley 7-0
Barrett 7-1
Fagan 10-3
Randazzo 13-5
Layne 10-4
Conroy 13-5
Culbreth 15-6
Eddings 14-6
hoye 13-6
Nauert 15-7

Road Dog umps:

Hanover 5-11
Reynolds 7-13
Nelson 8-13
Rayburn 2-5

Interleague Teams:

Rockies 3-12
Giants 2-6
Cubs 13-7
Pirates 12-5
Oak 13-5
Tampa 9-1
Boston 7-2
Toronto 9-5
Brewers 3-9

Hope this info helps, Omie!

:toast:

 

[bug01]

Where do you find umps for that day?

 

[IE]

Where do you find umps for that day?

for 1st game of a series..mlb.com scoreboard then click gameday of the game you want approx. 30 minutes before gametime.

after the 1st game of series they rotate around the bases with 1B ump taking over Homeplate the next game and so on.

 

[bug01]

Thanks! I thought S& odds used to have them.

 

[Omie]

great stuff WB - thank you :toast:

 

[zoomer]

great stuff WB - thank you :toast:

Omie, every state has it's armpit. New York has more armpits than it has arms. What is considered the armpit of Wisconsin? I saw your location and laughed.

 

[Omie]

lol - Green Bay. A buddy of mine called it that when I moved here and it stuck with me. Green Bay is not much of a bay these days, and far from Green... unless you want to swim with the green fish that have 3 eyes.:s1:

 

[Jig-Jag]

couldn't agree more more favs have hit in the last month its freakin ridiculous

Dogs don't always win and you can't bet on just dogs, it doesn't work that way.

 

[ageecee]

Dogs don't always win and you can't bet on just dogs, it doesn't work that way.

ive bet some favs too just like backing the +110 to +140 dogs

 

[Omie]

Dogs don't always win and you can't bet on just dogs, it doesn't work that way.

I know they don't always win, but I've always been very successful picking my spots with dogs until this year. I'll have to sharpen up half #2. all the best JJ:toast: