TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ?4.5 ? I liked this game a lot better when it opened at ?3.5, but it is still a play for me at 4.5 as I see the Bucs winning by at least a touchdown. This is the Bucs? first game under Jon Gruden, and they will be looking to get off on a positive note vs. their in-state rivals. It is interesting that a look at past pre seasons shows that that there is a direct correlation between how well Tampa Bay plays in the pre season and how well they play in the first month of the regular season. Last season, the Buccaneers were just 1-3 S/U and ATS in the pre season, including an opening week loss to these Dolphins here at home, and then promptly got off to a 2-3 start once the real games began. They ended up having to scramble just to make it into the post season. Just the opposite happened 2 seasons ago, when Tampa went 3-1 S/U in the pre season and then won their first 3 regular season games. You can bet that Gruden wants to install a winning attitude right from the get-go this time around. It actually helps Tampa Bay?s cause here that they have a 3-headed competition at the quarterback position. The Johnson boys (Brad and Rob) and Shaun King are all expected to see extended action tonight, which gives the Bucs a HUGE edge tonight as far as the QB rotation goes. Also, since Gruden wants these quarterbacks to play under similar conditions, don?t be surprised if all 3 of them have at least 2 series behind Tampa Bay?s starting offensive line, which is again a major advantage. As for the Dolphins, coach Dave Wannstedt has never been one to put much credence into pre season results. Sure, Miami went 3-1 in the pre season 2 years ago, but that was Wannstedt?s first year at the helm, and he was looking to make an immediate impression. Things returned to normal last year when the Dolphins went just 1-3 both S/U and ATS, with the lone win coming over these Bucs, which may bring into play a mild revenge angle. Miami upgraded the running back position with the acquisition of Ricky Williams, but he will be going up against one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL. The talent level drops off severely after that, and Miami?s QB rotation of Jay Fiedler (only about 2 series), Ray Lucas, Zak Kustock, and Tim Levcik doesn?t exactly inspire confidence, especially compared to Tampa Bay?s 3 veteran quarterbacks. Finally, let?s not forget that due to a ridiculous scheduling quirk, Miami must play again on Thursday, meaning that the first stringers will get plenty of rest tonight.
