DP World Tour Championship

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (2pts):

Jonas Blixt to beat Branden Grace -116 @ Bet365
The final event of the European Tour season and it has been a difficult year for Grace - he started the year inside the top-50 in the World Rankings and is now 139th. He has shown better form of late, but Blixt still leads him 8-3 h2h this year. The Swede finish 12th on this course last year and is playing well enough to at least repeat that finish.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Westwood tb Koepka -125; Howell tb Dyson -105]

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Fabrizio Zanotti to beat Andy Sullivan +100 @ 5Dimes
I don't see why Zanotti is priced as the underdog in this matchup. Sullivan did finish 4th last week, but that was his only top-40 finish in the last two months, whereas Zanotti has finished 19th and 10th in his two 'Final Series' events so far. He ranks ahead of Sullivan in the World Rankings (105th vs 150th) and has had a much better 2014 - he started the year outside the top-500. Finallly, the Paraguayan has a dominant 12-4-2 h2h record against Sullivan in rd2. I'm not find much value in the rd2 matchups, but I think there is some here.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Garcia tb Rose +110]

 

[kickserv]

Round 2 Match-Ups Parlay
----------------------------------------------------
Alexander Levy beat Oliver Fisher -170
Martin Kaymer beat Jamie Donaldson -105
Thongchai Jaidee beat Rafa Cabrera-Bello -145

odds = +424

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Rory McIlroy to beat Richie Ramsay -200 @ Boyle Sports [available generally]
I'll take these odds on McIlroy in this matchup. It has been 16 months since Ramsay finished ahead of McIlroy in any event and the difference in their h2h stats is even more marked on 'Moving Day': 17-3-4 in McIlroy's favour. Some inconsistency was to be expected with McIlroy as this is his first event since the first week of October, but I fully expect him to back to near his best over the weekend. He has finished in the top-5 in four of five previous visits to Jumeirah; Ramsay has yet to finish in the top-25 and this is his fourth attempt. Partnered with the World #1, this will be a challenge for the Scot and I doubt he will be able to match his playing partner.

[unofficial rd3 system plays; McDowell tb Donaldson -106; Westwood tb Kaymer -116; Oosthuizeb tb Dubuisson +100; Stenson tb Willett -186]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Joost Luiten to beat Victor Dubuisson +120 @ SkyBet
Looks a good price to back Luiten in this matchup - he has finished ahead of Dubuisson in four their last five common events. Plus, fatigue must also be a consideration with Dubuisson for tomorrow's final round: this isn't just his sixth event in a row, those six events have, in turn, been in England, Australia, China, China, Turkey, United Arab Emirates.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Koepka tb Kaymer +100; Grillo tb Colsaerts +100; Baldwin tb Hoey +100]